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Springtime of Nations II: A European Republic Quest

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As I see it.
The goal of the pro-peace talks side is mainly improving Germany's diplomatic standing with the Entente powers after the annexation of Bohemia, restocking for the next offensive and with the unlikely goal of a crippling peace treaty with the Imperial League. The failure conditions of the pro-peace talk position would either be the acceptance of a peace treaty that fails to defang the Habsburg and Russian Empires before the next war or failing to appease the concerns of the Entente powers.

The goal of the rejection side is continuing to pressure the Habsburg Empire into a full collapse and the crippling of the Russian Empire with winter offensives. The failure conditions of the rejection position would be eating a major diplomatic penalty while failing to land a decisive blow against the Imperial League during the winter or the triggering of an Entente diplomatic intervention that would prevent the full collapse of the Habsburgs and the crippling of the Russian Empire.

Questions to consider.
Is the alliance in position to conduct major offensives in the winter? And if the German and allied armies can conduct winter offensives, would the outcomes of the offensives be decisive and worth the diplomatic penalty of rejecting peace talks. If all that can be achieved is a short offensive to capture Königsberg that hurts but does not cripple the Russian military because the armies are too tired to do anything more, the benefits would likely not outweigh the diplomatic costs of rejecting the talks. If a winter offensive is able to cause the remnants of the Habsburg Empire to disintegrate to point that Franz Joseph flees to London or totally cripple the Russian military, it would likely be worth the diplomatic costs of rejecting the peace talks.

How strong is the new Franz Joseph line? Is the Habsburg Empire finally about to collapse and only needs one more little push or do the Habsburgs still have just enough strength to resist a limited offensive from tired armies?
 
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BoredStudent1414 said:
Is the alliance in position to conduct major offensives in the winter? And if the German and allied armies can conduct winter offensives, would the outcomes of the offensives be decisive and worth the diplomatic penalty of rejecting peace talks. If all that can be achieved is a short offensive to capture Königsberg that hurts but does not cripple the Russian military because the armies are too tired to do anything more, the benefits would likely not outweigh the diplomatic costs of rejecting the talks. If a winter offensive is able to cause the remnants of the Habsburg Empire to disintegrate to point that Franz Joseph flees to London or totally cripple the Russian military, it would likely be worth the diplomatic costs of rejecting the peace talks.

How strong is the new Franz Joseph line? Is the Habsburg Empire finally about to collapse and only needs one more little push or do the Habsburgs still have just enough strength to resist a limited offensive from tired armies?
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Looking back over the last few situation reports, the League forces in Austria went from 6 million men split between defending Vienna and the Alpine fortresses, to just over 4.8 million on the Franz Joseph Line. The Landwehr forces in Austria carried the assault on Vienna last turn despite being outnumbered 3.2 million to the League's 4 million. Now they're poised to assault less prepared positions with the aid of another 3.2 million allies, while the consolidation of Austria's remaining armies has left them will the aforementioned 4.8 million. Moreover, that Austria is now consolidating trained forces to retain combat-capable formations is a key sign of Austrian weakness. Austria is no longer able to call up even their less effective conscript forces to bolster their numbers, let alone replenish their armies with trained reservists, so any casualties we inflict immediately degrade Austria's overall strength in the field.

So, leaving aside that we're sitting on a significant portion of Austria's productive industry, we now outnumber a force that could only slow our advance while they held the numerical advantage, AND Austria can no longer afford to sustain significant casualties lest their armies simply attrit away.

On top of that we're largely past the Alps and have several options for potential offensives into the Hungarian Plain, where the terrain is significantly more conducive to offensive action.

For instance, if we wanted to aggressively go after Austria next turn we could launch two simultaneous offensives, one from Vienna towards Pressburg, and another from Italian-held Graz in southern Austria directly towards Budapest.

Overall, I'm increasingly convinced that these talks are largely a desperation ploy to stop us from immediately overrunning the Franz Joseph line. Frankly I'm willing to eat the disapproval of the Entente in this case in part because demolishing Austria's remaining ability to meaningfully resist us will, among other things, demonstrate exactly how bad of a deal Russia was offering us as a basis for negotiation.
 
Adhoc vote count started by Whenyouseeyou on Jun 30, 2023 at 12:33 AM, finished with 186 posts and 98 votes.
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Etranger said:
At the offensive's abrupt termination in late November, the Imperial Army is spent, exhausted, and in desperate need of a winter reprieve to regroup and rearm. The Landwehr, by contrast, has expended quite a lot of ammunition and used up many of its stockpiled supplies, but its personnel are fighting-fit and have only been moderately blooded by the entire experience.
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[X] Refuse to negotiate.
 
Beyond this ceasefire being a means for Russia to regroup, it also serves as a shield to protect their Baltic Fleet from being caught and pinned in their winter port and eliminated. Removing the Russian Baltic Fleet from the board means that we would have a far, far easier time seizing the Baltic States, which means seizing most of Russia's remaining industry and comprehensively undermining their ability to contest our the field against our armies.
 
Zimmerwald1915 said:
@monty
The actual exchange was this:


"Making unacceptable demands could be less bad, Entente-opinion-wise, than refusing to negotiate" is not the same as "making unacceptable demands will be less bad than refusing to negotiate," and moreover doesn't foreclose the possibility that making unacceptable demands could be worse than refusing to negotiate.
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This is why I hate discord driven info.

[X] Refuse to negotiate
 
If we were guaranteed to look better from entering negotiations and proposing a deal that's going to be rejected I would have gone for it. A maybe is sadly not good enough.

[X] Refuse to negotiate
 
HeWhoAdds said:
Overall, I'm increasingly convinced that these talks are largely a desperation ploy to stop us from immediately overrunning the Franz Joseph line. Frankly I'm willing to eat the disapproval of the Entente in this case in part because demolishing Austria's remaining ability to meaningfully resist us will, among other things, demonstrate exactly how bad of a deal Russia was offering us as a basis for negotiation.
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Honestly it reminds me a lot of when an AI in a 4x or grand strategy game will send you a request for a ceasefire after you smash their biggest army in the field. Of course the League would sue for peace right now, and especially on the terms they offered - it costs them next to nothing to try.
 
[X] Refuse to negotiate.

The incompetence of nobles is our best ally. When absolutism is defeated the real battle begins.
 
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