Objective: Determine target of attack by Admiral Trench and prepare countermeasures as needed.
Begin analysis.
Subject: Trench
Species: Harch (Potential connections to Ualaq subspecies of Aqualish perceived as "obscene," indicative of species' pride?)
Gender: Male
Age: 200 (approximate) (experienced but potentially inflexible, note for later)
Homeword: Secundus Ando
Rank: Admiral (Confederacy of Independent Systems Navy), Admiral (Corporate Alliance Nay), Admiral (Andoan Navy)
Relevant History:
-Service under "Spiverelda" regime of Ando, noted for efficiency and extreme ruthlessness towards opponents, credited as major force for Spivereldan victories over Andoan Free Worlds during Andoan Wars, main strategist for Battle of Raquish, battle known for mass civilian casualties forcing Republic to intervene and demilitarize Spivereldan regime
-Transferred to Corporate Alliance upon war's conclusion, primarily masterminded anti-piracy measures, most notable for leading blockade of Malastare Narrows where he first encountered Wullf Yularen and decimated Republic taskforce, became notable for using magnetic signatures to track cloaked vessels, used civilian targets as leverage to force conflicts favoring him, ship destroyed by Republic reinforcements (underestimated level of Republic commitment to breaking blockade?).
-Resurfaced during blockade of Christophsis, noticed due to distinctive emblem on ship (analyze after history), tasked with preventing supply vessels from reaching surface, only committed own ship to his part of grid (clear sign of arrogance, possible connection to Harch traditions of arrogance), detected stealth vessel piloted by Anakin Skywalker, tricked into torpedoing own ship by exploiting anti-cloaking tactics (trend of inflexibility confirmed), again presumed dead.
-Confirmed alive later during war after sightings of personal emblem reported, participated in other battles not of note.
Art: Marks clothing and ships commanded with personal emblem that is a stylized representation of Harch face, designed to invoke fear and dread. Confirms arrogant disposition as emblem was placed on ship used during blockade of Christophsis, announcing survival to potential enemies (Yularen). Indicative of pride, refusal to back down from any opposition, dislike of subtlety, preference for actions that send messages to enemies.
Trench analysis suspended. Commencing next analysis.
Subject: Sheev Palpatine
Alias: Darth Sidious
Species: Human
Gender: Male
Age: 63
Homeworld: Naboo
Held Positions: Supreme Chancellor, Senator of Naboo, Dark Lord of the Sith (self-proclaimed)
Relevant History: Due to lack of knowledge of personal history and confirmed manipulation of public history, section will be bypassed in favor of moving to personality assessment.
Personality (Relevant traits only): Distaste for personal involvement in operations due to public persona of Supreme Chancellor, confirmed arrogant disposition to point where he believes he is in control of all situations presented to him, multi-layered strategist, runs plans that have multiple layers to ensure some level of success.
Palpatine analysis suspended. Commencing analysis of hostile objectives.
Primary Hostile Objective (Presumed): Target and destroy Council world with Separatist fleet, forcing Council to either return to Republic sphere of influence or act in manner that can be publicized as treasonous to justify invasion.
Secondary Hostile Objective (Presumed): Destroy Abyss Watcher infrastructure and demoralize organization.
Tertiary Hostile Objective (Presumed): Demoralize Council worlds and force them away to Separatists or Republic.
Objective analysis suspended.
Commencing comprehensive analysis, first iteration.
Potential target must be Council world public enough to attract galactic attention as per presumed primary hostile objective. Includes:
-Mandalore (Political/spiritual capital, home to Mandalorian Guardians)
-Taris (Economic capital, central hub of Council activity)
-Kalee (Major military center, known for Huk-Kaleesh War, brought back into public consciousness due to statement from General Grievous in aftermath of Temple Bombing)
-Muunilinst (High-profile member, signaled complete withdrawal of IGBC from Separatists)
-Naboo (High-profile member, actively moving against Palpatine and is clear insult to leadership, close proximity to Secundus Ando)
-Corellia (High-profile member, Core World most openly critical of Palpatine)
All potential targets have significant Watcher assets present, ensuring potential success of presumed secondary hostile objective.
Determining significance of potential targets to Council as per presumed tertiary hostile objective.
-Mandalore (Political capital, confirmed)
-Taris (Economic capital, symbol of reconstruction during wartime, confirmed)
-Kalee (In public consciousness due to Huk-Kal-)
Potential issue located. Shifting analysis.
Yam'rii Regime Alignment: Unknown (Government has become isolated after aftermath of war)
Known hatred of Kaleesh and Ciaran, attempted to reignite Huk-Kaleesh war, dissuaded due to Kalee joining Council.
Commencing comprehensive analysis, second iteration.
Kalee is deemed relevant enough to galactic consciousness as per presumed primary hostile objective.
Kalee is home to considerable Watcher military and research assets as per presumed secondary hostile objective. Additionally due to considerable amounts of Kaleesh personnel within Watchers and past history with Kaleesh, defeat would be extremely demoralizing to organization as a whole.
Devastation of Kalee combined with resurgence of Huk-Kaleesh War deemed to be considerably damaging to Council morale as per presumed tertiary hostile objective.
Hypothesized Operational Directives: Reinforce Huk forces with fleet led by Admiral Trench and launch full-scale attack on Kalee, targeting spiritual and civilian centers as first priority followed by Watcher facilities as second priority. Ensure that Huk are seen participating in assault. Grievous considered to be high value target during operation and is guaranteed to participate in battle, use whatever tactics necessary to ensure his demise to cripple Kaleesh morale. Should assault fail, attack by Huk forces will force the hand of the Kaleesh government, dragging them into a new war.
Directives in line with confirmed personality traits of Palpatine and Trench.
Presumed hostile target: Kalee.
Commencing comprehensive analysis, third iteration (confirmation)...
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Oracle, Ciaran's Office
"You're sure - who am I kidding, of course you're sure otherwise you wouldn't have come to me with this," Ciaran said to an impassive Thrawn, visibly fretting as she began calling up information on the military forces stationed around Kalee. "At least we managed to get a few defense platforms set up but they're only going to be able to do so much against the fleet Trench has."
"That-"
"I know, I know that's only part of the problem," Ciaran hissed. "I'm already getting whatever I assets I can to Huk itself to confirm what you're saying, but I don't disagree with your conclusions at all." She pounded her desk with a fist. "Dammit! I can't stop the Kaleesh from wanting revenge - hell, if it wasn't playing into Palpatine's hands I'd let them destroy Huk for all I care! What am I supposed to tell Grievous!? That he shouldn't try and get revenge again after the species that enslaved his entire race came back for a second try at it!? Let alone every single Kaleesh veteran who lost friends and family to them!?"
"They revere you," Thrawn calmly replied. "You may not be able to fully suppress their feelings of vengeance, but I have faith you can convince them to temper it...at least, in the event it ever gets that far."
Ciaran's eyes locked onto Thrawn's. "I am not going to leave one of my best military commanders in the dark about this if that's what you're implying. That will backfire on me somehow. I don't know how specifically, but I know it would."
"Hardly. Grievous himself should unquestionably know about this. But the average Kaleesh on the other hand..."
"Sabotage the Huk forces, and make sure they never show up? Is that what you're getting at?" Ciaran shifted back to her computer. "It could work, but that would rely on us figuring out where the Huk forces are going to be and I doubt we'd be able to get all of them in one fell swoop. If it's on their own ships then that's doable, but if they decided to hitch a ride on a Lucrehulk..." Her eyes narrowed before she glanced at Thrawn again. "What are the odds of the Malevolence showing up?"
"High enough that we will need to plan for its appearance."
"Agreed, but I wanted a second opinion," Ciaran muttered before going back to sending out orders. "So for the sake of argument, let's say we decided to spook Trench and prevent the attack to begin with. What then?"
"He would vanish again, and then the probability of us successfully determining where he would strike next would drop dramatically. Kalee is the one world where there are enough factors in play to ensure that Trench's fleet will be attacking there. If it is taken off the list of targets it will be considerably more difficult to locate him. Much as you may wish otherwise I am hardly omniscient."
"I wasn't able to sense anything coming so...dammit..." Ciaran trailed off before looking over Thrawn, searching for something. "...Hm. Did those Voss genemods do anything? Any unusual visions or something? I don't think they worked from what I can tell, but you'd know better than I would."
"So far nothing of that sort has occurred," Thrawn reported.
"Damn. Well it was a long shot anyway...back to the planning then. Can we get enough forces to Kalee in time to stop Trench?"
"Most likely."
"I'll take it. Can we ensure Trench's death and the destruction of the majority of his fleet?"
"Yes. The Tarkin's Folly will be crucial to that end as you might expect."
"Right...while all that's happening, can we keep casualties and damage to Kalee itself at a minimum?"
"I can say with near certainty that I know where Trench will strike. He will not be allowed to get far."
"Good enough. Now then...while my mind's on it, we can agree that tipping off Yularen would risk blowing his cover, right?"
"Agreed."
"Alright, so before we do anything we need hard evidence from Huk otherwise we'll cause panic for nothing." Ciaran tilted her head slightly as a thought occurred to her. "That being said...if it turns out that we can confirm the attack we could have our infiltration team do some preemptive sabotage...but they'd risk getting detected...hm...maybe they could put trackers on Trench's ships...but no, he'd expect something like that and probably would figure it out...dammit all, why now...right, so the plan is..."
[] "Recon only, I don't want to run the risk of Trench getting spooked. The circumstances may be less than ideal but who knows where he'd try to hit next if he realized his cover was blown?"
[] "Light sabotage of Huk forces is authorized if and when Trench's involvement is confirmed. Nothing too severe, but it can't hurt to cause a ship or two to malfunction at the last second or something along those lines."
[] "...Dammit, we can't take these kinds of risks. Whoever goes to Huk will be ordered to make sure not a single bug gets off the planet's surface if and when they can confirm Trench has been in contact with them."
AN: And so it begins! Title of the mini-arc TBD since, well...there's a lot of different ways things could play out. Have Fun.