I genuinely do not think anything Alaric can do to us, can be more potentially damaging in the long term than a failure in getting the millennia old elf lord and the centuries old dwarf lord to play along. A bad enough diplomatic failure on lay the groundwork, which hinges on Mathilde's worst stat could be crippling long term. We should really put the Gambler on there.
I think we often use The Gambler on actions that don't benefit much or at all from it. Just last turn we recruited from both the Light and Jade orders, and used The Gambler on the Jade action. When we compare the two actions, what benefit did we get from using the Coin on the latter? Paranoth showing up at K8P was a cool benefit, and certainly helped Panoramia. But on the actual
favor-trading negotiation itself... I think we would have been given the same choices regardless. Because there was another Waystone action we took two turns ago, where we also used The Gambler: Thorek. While that turned out well for us, gaining his involvement for the cost of a few words and a paper, was any of that directly because of any supernatural luck? Or maybe it was the result of all the favor we've built with the dwarfs and the mountain we rescued?
Sometimes when we've used The Gambler, or Raald's Blessing before then, it's been absolutely pivotal. But other times, it barely seems to have any effect at all. While I'm tempted to do a big analysis of all our previous The Gambler uses... (too tired today for that) I'm just gonna go with my gut and say that it's most often visibly useful in risky and dangerous situations. Investigating a highly powerful and politically savvy former Supreme Patriarch, or fighting enemies in some dark forest, are places where The Gambler is most likely to make a big difference. The Lay the Foundations action, where multiple highly competent magic users who've already been convinced to work together sit around for weeks and do theory crafting? I'm not seeing the danger to ward off or the lower-c chaos to take advantage of.
It's true that The Gambler can be used as a generic boost to any action. But I think we too often use it as Generic Action +1 when it's best used as Dangerous Experiment +20.
I actually physically double-taked IRL at taking Egrimm into the woods, but not having him help investigate the single person he probably has the most insight into.
[X] Plan Starting up debt free
Egrimm's relationship with Alric is an
absolute mess. He's his former mentor, his hated boss, his wise teacher, his coddling parent-figure, his rightful Patriarch, his incompetent has-been, and likely someone who's both saved his life and put him in deadly danger. Egrimm rightfully needs a professional therapist. Unfortunately, the best we might manage is finding a Sigmund Freud expy, if anyone.
My point being, the best thing Mathilde can do for Egrimm is keeping him away from Alric so he can work through his feeling and hopefully move on. The
worst thing she can do is pushing him back into that total mess and asking him to firmly betray Alric - even if it's "only" investigating him for his political rival. It's asking for some bad juju.