People, we had to literally make it so Lys attacked us(by practically chaining ourselves to that cretin). Even his own men thought he was all bluster.
The odds of Norvos or Qohor deciding to fight are infinitesimally low.
I don't know, DP has been consistent in displaying that the rot has really sunk in deeply. It took a perfect storm of upheavals (which we had a hand in) for Zherys to take such quick control of Volantis. That place was a dumpster fire waiting to go off (multiple times). And even up to the last moment there was potential for things to go horribly wrong (though not considerable). The bigger variables in the mix was Zherys deciding to jeopardize careful plans by trying to sweep aside the Reds with the seizure of power. That definitely could have ended in fire. Pun intended.
Braavos rode the wave because we gave them a leg up early on. Qohor and Norvos were left basically to themselves and look what that got them, respectively. As far as news traveling out of Norvos goes, "everything is under control", and as for Qohor, they suffered the most out of any Free City ironically despite being interacted with the least.
The Three Daughters were a cesspit waiting for their strings to be picked up by fiends or fey, with only Myr managing to keep nominal control of their administration and military and economy, but that could have been for
nothing if Tyrosh and Lys had fell to dark powers which we directly intervened with, and it would have generally been down to endemic corruption and willful blindness up to the last, and an inability to grasp the concept of "enlightened self interest" let alone actual and basic empathy for the plight of outsiders.
Pentos, obviously, was already shitty with ordinary human failings. Things being like they are, we of course intervened in yet another city-killing event there.
Lorath is basically sphere'd by Braavos... and regarded as a cultural, economic and military backwater, so it's not surprising news there has mostly been curious but not alarming.
Basically, anyone that could have had potential to be a real player and threat suffered from their own issues, only having individual standouts like people trying to manage the chaos, and it is heavily implied with how many times we have seriously averted disaster personally that their efforts would not have been enough, simply because for all their talent, competence and ambition they had the same blindspots as what would have led to the destruction of all their other peers.
Re: Invading Qohor, we can manage a ground campaign so long as we control the Rhoyne, but that does seem likely to cause Norvos to try intervening, if they have a mind to at all. Making a logistical route into their territory the thing the campaign hinges upon seems a bit silly too when we could just slip troops into their perimeters and have ships trailing behind to resupply the occupational forces seizing control.
That's all a moot point as we cannot even begin to discuss the best manner to deal with either of them until we have more intelligence.