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I think the whole Gambler thing is overblown - this is the first stage of an organizational setup roll, it shouldn't be as significant as who are present for the setup, because as Boney has repeatedly established, the more unique perspectives the better for arriving at a complete understanding. We have asked many times when this caps out and always gotten a non-answer, since with a complex and subjective field like magic, every different perspective is significant, provided they aren't just straight up a clone of an existing group.
We've done this type of roll before, exceptional success means we sort out the issues and get to work early, failure means we spend more time soothing egos and establishing common ground.
Rolling well in such a scenario would be preferred, but the last thing from mission critical.
As such, the coin bonus' importance is being grossly inflated.
The actually important rolls are d6s which are not modified.
How many social bombing actions are enough to justify use of Father? 3? 4? That's at least half of a turn. I don't get an impression that people here are ready to spent half a turn looking around in a middle of a Project work.
I don't even think that we are going to recruit anyone else, unless we specifically need them or have reached a deadlock.
I mean, right now the Father option is ahead only because those who want to recruit Hedgewise are voting for it.
Yes, that's why many of us against using the father this turn are saying it would be better to use it on another turn when we can devote a bunch of recruitment actions to basically social bomb every group that could possibly be connected to Ranald and ensure as much as possible that the father face of the coin actually does something.
Yes, but I see our role as being more administrative: we are not so much providing our own knowledge, but ensuring that everyone's knowledge is appropriately shared.From the description of the activity:
[ ] Lay the foundations: work with the current members of WEB-MAT and the Waystone Project to build a single unified framework for understanding the Waystones.
this is not administratively arranging the organisational setup of the project.
This is building the intellectual foundations that future research will be based on.
Yes, but I see our role as being more administrative: we are not so much providing our own knowledge, but ensuring that everyone's knowledge is appropriately shared.
With regards to the framework: this is not administrative and we will have an active role, but again there are lots of people who will be building the framework and not just Mathilde.
Same deal - its something that would hurt more from having less parts available than from taking longer fitting everything together. Recruitment takes precedence over rolling high on the initial groundwork because I strongly doubt Lay the Foundations would be completed in one action.From the description of the activity:
[ ] Lay the foundations: work with the current members of WEB-MAT and the Waystone Project to build a single unified framework for understanding the Waystones.
this is not administratively arranging the organisational setup of the project.
This is building the intellectual foundations that future research will be based on.
Same deal - its something that would hurt more from having less parts available than from taking longer fitting everything together. Recruitment takes precedence over rolling high on the initial groundwork because I strongly doubt Lay the Foundations would be completed in one action.
I don't think anyone is arguing that the gambler will not help. I certainly am not. The arguments I am seeing people make, which I agree with, is that the gambler is not essential and that in the worst case the project will be off to a slower start. I don't believe that there is a possibility for the project to be dead before it started. If that was the case then Gambler would be essential, but seeing as the cost of failure is lower, there is a reduced need to ensure success.The Gambler can still make it more likely that another member of the project happens to describe a part of their own paradigm in a way that others can understand enough to build on, or that Mathilde herself rephrases what one of them has said in a way that others can understand. SHe may be one of the best linguists present.
As when we an Amber Wizard just happened to find a not yet desecrated Herdstone at an appropriate time to make a Transformation of Kadon battle altar, or someone mis-addressed a letter so it reached Mathilde, the Gambler can effect other people beyond just Mathilde.
I really wish we'd learned Arcane Khazlid before we laid the foundations, but it's spilt milk now, we'll never get the vote turned around at this point, as it may give us clues to the runesmiths paradigm that would make it much easier to translate what Thorek is describing, as he have the most alien paradigm of them all.
I actually disagree with you on this bit. I don't know for sure, obviously, but from the way the action is described as unlocking further investigations, I think it is very likely that the way it works is:Same deal - its something that would hurt more from having less parts available than from taking longer fitting everything together. Recruitment takes precedence over rolling high on the initial groundwork because I strongly doubt Lay the Foundations would be completed in one action.
Boney has described the Gambler as "discrete tweaks of random chance." I am extremely skeptical that this manifests as divine inspiration anywhere outside of Mathilde's head -- to be clear, I don't have a great sense of what random chance means, but I am confident that "Ranald-granted insights" do not qualify, and furthermore that by several of the participants they would be construed as a hostile act.It could easily be a room full of simultaneous flight school memes, unless the participants receive literal divine inspiration to pick relevant pieces of information to share and to describe in in a mutually intelligible way,
I don't think anyone is arguing that the gambler will not help. I certainly am not. The arguments I am seeing people make, which I agree with, is that the gambler is not essential and that in the worst case the project will be off to a slower start. I don't believe that there is a possibility for the project to be dead before it started. If that was the case then Gambler would be essential, but seeing as the cost of failure is lower, there is a reduced need to ensure success.
I have seen arguments that the Gambler either will not help or have negligible effects, actually. (And I disagree with them)I don't think anyone is arguing that the gambler will not help. I certainly am not. The arguments I am seeing people make, which I agree with, is that the gambler is not essential and that in the worst case the project will be off to a slower start. I don't believe that there is a possibility for the project to be dead before it started. If that was the case then Gambler would be essential, but seeing as the cost of failure is lower, there is a reduced need to ensure success.
Boney has described the Gambler as "discrete tweaks of random chance." I am extremely skeptical that this manifests as divine inspiration anywhere outside of Mathilde's head -- to be clear, I don't have a great sense of what random chance means, but I am confident that "Ranald-granted insights" do not qualify, and furthermore that by several of the participants they would be construed as a hostile act.
I have seen arguments that the Gambler either will not help or have negligible effects, actually.
But yeah, I agree that I don't think a highly successful Foundations action is as absolutely vital as it's been treated as. It's important and useful, to be sure, but I don't think it's so much so that nothing else can be prioritized - plus, I feel like there's good odds that recruiting the Hedgewise will have greater positive impact on the Foundations action than the Gambler would anyhow.
As far as we know no one has tried to bring together different magical traditions to repair waystones. This is the first time that dwarfs and elfs are working together one something for a loooong time. So we don't know how hard it is because this approach is very new.My baseline assumption is that this is a challenge where each step is of near-impossible difficulty, which is why no one's fixed it before now, and we need every possible advantage to make any progress at all. The Gambler is a key advantage.
The descriptions we've had of the difficulty of sharing magical knowledge between practitioners of even very similar paradigms suggest this.
@Boney is the wider Karaz Ankor aware about the High King's intention to reclaim Mount Silverspear? Like, has the news trickled down to the Dwarf public or is it still restricted on a need to know basis?
As far as we know no one has tried to bring together different magical traditions to repair waystones. This is the first time that dwarfs and elfs are working together one something for a loooong time. So we don't know how hard it is because this approach is very new.
Teclis build a army capable of magic in the fastest way possible, then after kicking chaos butt he went and refined everything about it for a bit and then fucked off. I'm pretty certain he didn't do a waystone project, mostly because the elfs of Ulthuan probably still have the knowledge how to build some..Teclis brought together a large number of human paradigms, worked out a meta-paradigm for them to adjust their paradigms to work within, and also taught them some of the basics of Waystone maintenance and told them how critical it was for the long term survival of the world. Are you sure that their was no failed early Waystone project involved? Given the use the physical Colleges seem to make of Waystones, it wouldn't be surprising if Teclis and his early students tried and failed.
Sure, he didn't involve the dwarves, but Thorek is one of the least likely to share much, and he doesn't know much, and may have the hardest to translate paradigm.
My baseline assumption is that this is a challenge where each step is of near-impossible difficulty, which is why no one's fixed it before now, and we need every possible advantage to make any progress at all. The Gambler is a key advantage.
The descriptions we've had of the difficulty of sharing magical knowledge between practitioners of even very similar paradigms suggest this.
This is something that can and is expected to be addressed over a year of building a common vocabulary.I think you underestimate the difficulty of recognising what parts are relevant to the problem or of describing what those parts are to reach other.
We could very easily have a situation where the baseline is that no one (save perhaps the Grey Lords) has any idea of whether any of the vast amount of things they know is relevant to the problem, let alone which those pieces of information are, and even if they could identify things that would be important to explain, everyone else in the room would not be able to understand what they were talking about without it going straight over their heads.
It could easily be a room full of simultaneous flight school memes, unless the participants receive literal divine inspiration to pick relevant pieces of information to share and to describe in in a mutually intelligible way.
Not only do most of the people in the room not know what they don't know, but that probably also don't know what they do know.
This is the second time Ranaldad led to a contentious neck-and-neck vote.Vote has not changed in the last 12 hours and I think everything about both plans has been said. There is not really more information unless Boney says something.
Yup, though I'm much happier about this vote. Muuuch less drama and I doubt anyone will be too annoyed at the outcome.This is the second time Ranaldad led to a contentious neck-and-neck vote.
This is literally single-issue voting.
Consider when Mathilde wrote a series of papers in collaboration with other wizards:Boney has described the Gambler as "discrete tweaks of random chance." I am extremely skeptical that this manifests as divine inspiration anywhere outside of Mathilde's head -- to be clear, I don't have a great sense of what random chance means, but I am confident that "Ranald-granted insights" do not qualify, and furthermore that by several of the participants they would be construed as a hostile act.
[Amber insight: 49.]
[Jade insight: 77.]
[Gold insight: 97+10(Johann's notes)=107.]
[Grey insight: 52+10(Windreader)=62.]
[Dictating a paper: Learning, 76+20=96.]
---
[Amber insight: 37.]
[Jade insight: 61.]
[Gold insight: 61+10(Johann's notes)=71.]
[Grey insight: 98+10(Windreader)=108.]
[Dictating a paper: Learning, 95+20=115.]
---
[Amber insight: 91.]
[Jade insight: 71.]
[Gold insight: 62+10(Johann's notes)=72.]
[Grey insight: 1+10(Windreader)=11.]
[Dictating a paper: Learning, 27+20=47.]
[Amber dictating a paper?: 19.]
{Panoramia? 44.]
[Max? 16.]
---
[Amber insight: 99.]
[Grey insight: 71+10(Windreader)=81.]
[Writing a paper: 4+20-10(Practical)=14.]
[Dictating a paper: Learning, 44+20=64.]
---
[Writing a paper on Runes: Learning, 78+15=93.]
[Writing a paper on Anvils: Learning, 2+15=17.]
[Trying to salvage a paper on Anvils: 75+20-10(Practical)=85.]
[Writing a paper on Waaagh: 37-20=17.]
[Writing a paper on Dragon Ogres: 82+15=97.]
Er, does the Gambler show up there? I'm pretty sure the +20 bonus was Mathilde's learning.Consider when Mathilde wrote a series of papers in collaboration with other wizards:
Again working backwards, we can turn it around to say that anywhere we saw a roll, there was an instance of random chance. Therefore, in that instance of collaborating with other magic users to explain magical phenomena, there was a lot of random chance.
The text of the Gambler says: 'The Gambler: A +20 bonus to up to two dice rolls affiliated with a chosen action.' We know it's not limited to affecting Mathilde personally/directly from when we applied it to Thorek and when we got the dragon altar. I don't see any evidence saying that the Gambler is restricted from affecting other people's insights, and if it were to happen, I don't think it'd induce any more suspicion than when the Protector made the entirety of Karak Vlag aware of the Expedition's deeds, a far more large scale event.
You can argue that if we have more rolls, the Gambler's effect gets more diluted as each individual roll is less impactful, but on the flip side, the Gambler boosts go to where they have the most impact, meaning there are more places for it to turn a failure into a success or a success into a crit. I believe the hypothetical effects of a [Thorek's Insights: XX+20=XXX] or [Hatalath's Insights: XX+20=XXX] or a [Synthesizing the framework: XX+20=XXX] are worth the tradeoff of not recruiting the Hedgewise this turn.
This all assumes a similar system with lots of rolls, of course.