Victoria Falls: A Post-Collapse American Nation Quest [Down With Victoria!]

[4WheelSword]

thread policy Discussion of politics that does not directly relate to the Quest or to Quest votes are banned from hereon out. This thread policy will be enforced by the Moderation team. Do not ignore it.

 

[Red Rationalist]

Given the possible consequences of a flubbed roll on our internal political situation, I dont agree.

Internal unrest from a discontented refugee population is the gift that could keep giving for years from now, as everything from patsies to be instigated by foreign agents to disaffected people to be turned into spies to a reason to turn popular Commonwealth opinion against immigrants and give the Unionists an opportunity to make a political comeback.

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Yeah, I would like to deal with the biggest political problem we have while the Commonwealth is young. The refugee waves won't stop in the foreseeable future and having a large amount of politically disenfranchised people in our polis won't go well. We can half our risk of failure by spending an additional action point (0.35*0.7 = 24,5% to .35*.35 = 12,25%). If we don't deal with it now, it will become a persistent issue in the future. Let's deal with the most urgent things now, we will have plenty of AP in the future.

I'm against hosting the meeting or trying to expand too fast; we need to consolidate what we have and actually put our economy together before we start thinking about doing anything else.

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We don't have to commit to anything by simply going there. Right now, we are the most militarily potent power in the eastern US, given the Victorian Civil war. We hold our local conference, we dealt with the worst of the local issues for now and we can address them in the near future. It's a good chance to make diplomatic inroads to polities beyond just the lakes, which can lead to valuable alliances and Intel opportunities. Going there doesn't hurt our consolidation.

 

[Largo]

I'm not going to deny that I'm worried about the possibility of us going to any meeting, whoever is at the meeting offers us SHINY, and then in typical Quest fashion we go for the SHINY and get even more bogged down. Alliances and intel opportunities aren't going to come for free, and we have more than enough to focus on at the moment.

I'm too lazy to come up with an actual plan, but in general I think we should be husbanding our resources, focusing heavily on internal economic development with a general goal of getting ready for war with Victoria within 7 years. I'd like to delay the war as long as possible, but I'm worried about the prospect of Victoria racing past us as they recover from the Civil War and get Russian help.

 

[The Laurent]

Seven years is fourteen turns. We're currently on Turn 5.

So, like, seven years is actually a long time in terms of 'game playing.'

 

[Red Rationalist]

I'm not going to deny that I'm worried about the possibility of us going to any meeting, whoever is at the meeting offers us SHINY, and then in typical Quest fashion we go for the SHINY and get even more bogged down. Alliances and intel opportunities aren't going to come for free, and we have more than enough to focus on at the moment.

I'm too lazy to come up with an actual plan, but in general I think we should be husbanding our resources, focusing heavily on internal economic development with a general goal of getting ready for war with Victoria within 7 years. I'd like to delay the war as long as possible, but I'm worried about the prospect of Victoria racing past us as they recover from the Civil War and get Russian help.

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It's a long time. However, our AP are directly correlated too financial resources. In order to have bootstrap our economy, we need access to the world markets. For that we need to secure a route to the Mississippi, which needs diplomatic outreach beyond just the neighborhood. Isolation, whether diplomatic or economic, will hurt our ability for internal development. We will thrive by racing as fast as we can or die from stagnation.

 

[ConfusedCanuck]

Yeah military wise I'm all for the training reforms mostly since I don't want to give an extra die for anything else there since we need to kickstart everything else at the moment. Maybe in a turn or two we can get more boats but right now for the military let's focus on training up our military to a better standard.

 

[ThatGazzer]

wow I already Hate The Boy, and we haven't seen him on camera for longer then five minutes

remarkable, simply remarkable.

 

[Luminous]

I'm against hosting the meeting or trying to expand too fast; we need to consolidate what we have and actually put our economy together before we start thinking about doing anything else.

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Just finished beating Victoria, Alexander Dead, a fresh wave of Revivalist sentiment, California declaring independence, unveiling the Declaration of Independence, all on the tricentennial of the birth of the country? This is literally a one time deal. We aren't getting a moment like this again.

 

[Wiadi]

Hm. So, the overall probability breakdown on the Refugees action:

With 1 die, we have a 35% chance of failing the roll & a 70% chance of failing the followup, meaning we're looking at around a 75% chance of success by one means or another.
With 2 dice, we have to fail two 35% rolls initially for a net of about 12% failure risk there, and we're still 70% likely to fail the followup, so our chance of success goes up to around 91% overall.

75% does not feel like a sufficient chance of success on an issue this important and time-sensitive. I'd definitely suggest we put a second die in if we can remotely spare it, which it honestly looks like we can at the moment - obviously opinions on what's necessary will vary but from where I'm standing it looks like we have ~2 free AP that aren't needed for immediately urgent matters.

 

[uju32]

I'm not going to deny that I'm worried about the possibility of us going to any meeting, whoever is at the meeting offers us SHINY, and then in typical Quest fashion we go for the SHINY and get even more bogged down. Alliances and intel opportunities aren't going to come for free, and we have more than enough to focus on at the moment.

I'm too lazy to come up with an actual plan, but in general I think we should be husbanding our resources, focusing heavily on internal economic development with a general goal of getting ready for war with Victoria within 7 years. I'd like to delay the war as long as possible, but I'm worried about the prospect of Victoria racing past us as they recover from the Civil War and get Russian help.

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As anyone who plays strategy games will tell you, turtling is generally a suboptimal choice, and puts you in a spiral where you end up outproduced by rivals. Note that if we did any of what you suggest, we wouldnt have any immigrants, we wouldnt have gone to Detroit's aid, and we'd have been fighting the last war in our heartland with no allies and with our backs to the wall.

Expand or die.

The fact that we chose not to expand militarily does not mean we gave up the diplomatic option.
We are explicitly banking on diplomacy to let us grow and mass economic grunt and allies against the next war.
Turtling is just starving our future war machine.

Yeah military wise I'm all for the training reforms mostly since I don't want to give an extra die for anything else there since we need to kickstart everything else at the moment. Maybe in a turn or two we can get more boats but right now for the military let's focus on training up our military to a better standard.

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Chicago is a trading city. Detroit is a trading city. Both cities make a ton of their income, and a ton of the Commonwealth's tariffs, off trade.
The Commonwealth's economic lifeblood is the trade of the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes.
We quite literally took a Traders perk at chargen.

Merchants bring imports. Immigrants travel there, bringing their skills and what books and heirlooms they have. Food flows here from farmlands and flows out to consumers. Information flows here along with the goods. That all requires that said trade can move in safety.
Losing shiploads or barges of goods to pirates or greedy warlords is unacceptable.

Making sure the waters, both lakes and rivers, that lead to both cities are patrolled and safe is literally of existential importance to the Commonwealth. Its what helps pay for everything else.
Training reform can wait a turn. Gunboats cannot.

 

[ConfusedCanuck]

Training reform can wait a turn. Gunboats cannot.

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This is a really good point that I forgot... consider my objections withdrawn.

 

[Pittauro]

Training reform can wait a turn. Gunboats cannot.

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definitely agree with this. Boats are necessary to protect and control rivers and lakes, and we have too few of them.

We simply need them.

About refugees... I get the points about 2 APs. I'm willing to concede there, it's just that I'm not sure where I'd take this AP from.

 

[Karnax626]

[ ] Vox Populi: Riding the success of his broadcast series, Barack Williams has established his own radio station, cultivating contacts acquired over a career of years. Very...extensive...contacts, in fact. Williams is not the Commonwealth's biggest fan, but he doesn't hate you; perhaps he'd be amenable to a privileged relationship? DC: 35 (20 if Detroit successfully integrated this turn). Successes Required: 1. AP Limit: 1. Effect: Bring the Vox Populi radio network aboard as an intelligence asset.

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Is Detroit not already integrated, or do we need to complete the Census Office first?

 

[uju32]

definitely agree with this. Boats are necessary to protect and control rivers and lakes, and we have too few of them.
We simply need them.
About refugees... I get the points about 2 APs. I'm willing to concede there, it's just that I'm not sure where I'd take this AP from.

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:checks your plan:
Take it off Expand The Department or Census.
Neither has to be completed this turn, while Gunboats and Refugees really should.
Refugees especially.

Is Detroit not already integrated, or do we need to complete the Census Office first?

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It was copy-pasted.
Assume the effective DC is 20.

 

[Largo]

As anyone who plays strategy games will tell you, turtling is generally a suboptimal choice, and puts you in a spiral where you end up outproduced by rivals. Note that if we did any of what you suggest, we wouldnt have any immigrants, we wouldnt have gone to Detroit's aid, and we'd have been fighting the last war in our heartland with no allies and with our backs to the wall.

Expand or die.

The fact that we chose not to expand militarily does not mean we gave up the diplomatic option.
We are explicitly banking on diplomacy to let us grow and mass economic grunt and allies against the next war.
Turtling is just starving our future war machine.

Click to shrink...

This isn't Starcraft, where all things are equal. We aren't just going to relentlessly expand and expand and expand, there is going to be a point where we stop, take stock of what we have, and focus on consolidation. We are dealing with all sorts of economic problems right now whether it's food or the census or refugees or so on. I'd argue those are much more important priorities than trying to control too much.

If we're to focus on anywhere diplomatically, I'm largely interested in securing control of the Mississippi and that's about it. That river can be the lifeblood of our country just as it was for the early US. But this means for example that I don't care about what's going on in Michigan or Minnesota for the moment beyond what we already control.

 

[Rockeye]

Given the possible consequences of a flubbed roll on our internal political situation, I dont agree.

Internal unrest from a discontented refugee population is the gift that could keep giving for years from now, as everything from patsies to be instigated by foreign agents to disaffected people to be turned into spies to a reason to turn popular Commonwealth opinion against immigrants and give the Unionists an opportunity to make a political comeback.

Even successfully dealing with such problems would still harm our Revivalist cred, and thus the value we can milk from it.
Alex used refugees to destabilize multiple nations in this quest.
We'd be foolhardy not to learn from that example.

2 AP please.

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Informational: I calculate an approximately 76% chance the refugee bill passes with one AP, versus 92% chance it passes with two AP. Possibly slightly higher.

Whether that's worth investing another (sharply limited) action point into it, is up to the voters.

 

[Rockeye]

How time sensitive are the michigan and minnesota mediations?

 

[Red Rationalist]

How time sensitive are the michigan and minnesota mediations?

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QM mentioned nothing about those being on a timer. We also literally just finished holding a big reconciliation conference, so I think we can put them for one or two turns.

 

[aceraptor]

How time sensitive are the michigan and minnesota mediations?

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QM mentioned nothing about those being on a timer. We also literally just finished holding a big reconciliation conference, so I think we can put them for one or two turns.

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From Dicord:

aceraptor — Today at 12:24 AM
My bad Poptart

[12:24 AM]​

Oh, on that thought, how bad will it look if we put off the mediation actions?


PoptartProdigy — Today at 12:29 AM
I dunno, how bad does the headline, "CFC-sponsored talks between the two Minnesotas delayed," sound?

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We chose to put ourselves into the issue so it'll look pretty bad if it seems like we were either unprepared or got cold feet.

 

[Splashcat]

We have had a need for more boats since the moment we annexed Detroit and Toledo, and we need them now more than we need better soldiers.

Even just 1 ap would hopefully mitigate the problems of not having enough ships to patrol and gain us some time. and If we take the reform instead of boats, that needs we HAVE to spend 2 ap on boats next turn, and we might not be able to afford it.

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Hmm, fair... I can definitely see the benefit of putting one AP into boats instead of training, then we can finish one or both off next turn as needed. I guess I'm just a little shy about picking an option that's both hard to finish this turn and explicitly going to be obsolete, but I suppose we might need to make some tradeoffs for getting stuff done in the short term. I have edited my plan accordingly.

I don't think we need two dice here. My read was that if we fail the 1 dice at DC 35 the bill then needs to pass a DC 70 roll.

It basically means we already get two dice for 1 ap (even if the second one has an higher DC), and we can't afford to overspend our few Free APs.

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I also read this as "if we fail the 1 dice at DC 35, we get the DC 70 roll", but I think we can afford to mess this up even less than we can afford to overspend a free AP. Alienating the refugee population would be a huge problem that messes us up for years to come, seconding uju32 on this.

Is there something not in my plan you think we need to be spending this AP on instead? (Assume I made the switch from 1 training to 1 boats that you wanted.) Because right now I'm not sure there's anything that's even half this critical.

 

[uju32]

This isn't Starcraft, where all things are equal. We aren't just going to relentlessly expand and expand and expand, there is going to be a point where we stop, take stock of what we have, and focus on consolidation. We are dealing with all sorts of economic problems right now whether it's food or the census or refugees or so on. I'd argue those are much more important priorities than trying to control too much.

If we're to focus on anywhere diplomatically, I'm largely interested in securing control of the Mississippi and that's about it. That river can be the lifeblood of our country just as it was for the early US. But this means for example that I don't care about what's going on in Michigan or Minnesota for the moment beyond what we already control.

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-This is precisely like Starcraft, or some other period RTS.
Our opponent does not have to expand because they already have an established base of operations, and they get bonus resources and discounts on acquiring gear from the computer their sugardaddy. We on the other hand are starting from scratch.

We need to both invest AND expand.

-You cannot secure the Mississipi without the active cooperation of the tens of millions of people along its several thousand kilometer course.
Which is again, a function of diplomatic outreach.
One set of problems can solve another. Just like Detroit helped solve the Victoria problem.

-The rest of Michigan is literally next door to Detroit.

When Victoria of all places cares about the diplomatic opinions of those places, we cannot afford not to. Especially since we are a trading nation,and if you dont have relations, you cannot trade. Not caring is how we ended up under a blockade by our neighbours while fighting Victoria and running short of strategic materials.

I'd like to think we've learned from that mistake.

How time sensitive are the michigan and minnesota mediations?

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Important.

The Michigan city-states literally are along some of our internal land and water routes, and at least one of them is a naval base.
The Minnesota one is one we chose to intervene in, which puts it on a timer. It borders Wisconsin and the Great Lakes; any conflict will disrupt overland trade from the Dakotas.

 

[Splashcat]

Re: The diplomatic mediation, I don't think we can afford to do it this turn. We certainly can't afford to both mediate and expand the State Department, and expanding the State Department feels like a better 2 AP play than doing both mediations, because then next turn we could handle them both without any free AP required at all. Yes, it'll make us look a little unprepared, but that's because a) we kind of *are* unprepared to handle this right now due to the aforementioned non-expanded State Department, and as such, b) we will be spending this time *getting* prepared so that we are literally twice as good at handling this stuff in the long run. It needs to be a top priority for next turn, but I don't think it'll be too bad if we don't do it this turn.

(Doing only one of the mediations this turn doesn't feel like a good option because then it makes us seem like we're showing favoritism, and I still don't think we can afford a third AP on top of 2 in State Department.)

 

[picklepikkl]

IMO just drop expanding the state department for this turn; it's a weaker long-term play, yeah, but we can't fall into the trap of always prioritizing long-term efficiency at the expense of short-term consequences.

Of the plans I've seen so far, I think @buli-buli's is the best, though I'd shift one die from Expanding the Department to the Refugee Crisis.

 

[Splashcat]

Yeah, I'd back that. I guess it's actually only like a 40% chance that we'd actually succeed in expanding the department this turn even with two actions due to the high DC, so there's no guarantee we'd actually be able to address both mediations next turn without free AP required. As such, I can back plan Win the Peace on the condition that it moves 1 AP from Expanding the Department to Refugee Crisis. (Not putting 2 dice in Refugee Crisis is an instant deal-breaker for me, we can't afford to mess this up.) Next turn, though, we'd better finish that expansion. And found the Department of Education. There's only so long we can put off long term concerns before there's not much long term left.

Quoting the plan for convenience, had to scroll back to find it:

[ ][PLAN] Win the Peace
-[ ] Defense (1 AP)
--[ ] More Gunboats: DC: 1. Successes Required: 2. Effect: Double the Navy, relieving the strain on your patrol commitments. Will be obsolete, next war, but right now you need hulls yesterday, and you won't even know if you're going to be bothering to build anymore domestic designs until Congress decides on a build plan.
-[ ] State (1 AP + 3 Free AP)
--[ ] Michigan Mediation: DC: 30. Successes Required: 1. AP Limit: 2. Effect: Settle the grudges between Traverse City and the MSR, ensuring that your strategic allies in the LP remain settled.
--[ ] Intervention In Minnesota: DC: 10. Successes Required: 1. AP Limit: 1. Effect: Organize the summit to determine who is the more Minnesotan of the Minnesotas, and what to do about it. Unlocks further options.
--[ ] Expand the Department: DC: 35. Successes Required: 2. AP Limit: 2. Effect: Gain 1 additional Department of State AP per turn.
--[ ] 2 dice
-[ ] Domestic Affairs (1 AP + 3 Free AP)
--[ ] Census Office: DC: 30. Successes Required: 2. AP Limit: 2. Effect: Establish a Census Office and finally nail down your population figures.
---[ ] 2 dice
--[ ] Refugee Crisis: DC: 35. Successes Required: 2 (1 of 2 complete). AP Limit: 2. Effect: Shepherd the bill through Congress. This option will close this turn whether or not it is taken. If not taken, the bill must pass a DC of 70 to clear Congress and become law.
--[ ] Economic Legislation: DC: 25. Successes Required: 1 (Rises to 2 next turn). AP Limit: 1. Effect: Push Congress to approve additional and clarified powers for the Department of Development regarding their ability to control the economy, lowering all DCs relevant to your development and rearmament by 5.
-[ ] Development (3 AP)
--[ ] Midwest Economic Summit: DC: 15. Successes Needed: 1. AP Limit: 2. Effect: Organize business interests at home, in the broader Country, and abroad who are interested in being involved in your economic development plans, lowering all DCs relevant to your development and rearmament by 5. With your control of trade down the St. Lawrence, this should catch attention far and wide.
--[ ] Green Energy: DC: auto-pass from climate deal. Successes Needed: 2(/3). AP Limit: 3. Effect: Fully revamp and rationalize your power grid with renewable energy sources. 2 successes replaces and rationalizes the power grid. 3 sees you fudge the numbers and get an expansion to the power grid out of it. The option will remain for one turn past the 2nd success, if there is not a 3rd in the same turn.
--[ ] Farming Equipment, Part 2: DC: 30. Successes Required: 2 (1 of 2 complete). AP Limit: 3. Effect: Subsidize the construction and distribution of additional farming equipment for your new least-advantaged rural population, shoring up your food situation and preempting another starvation crisis.
-[ ] Security (1AP)
--[ ] Into Victoria: DC: 10. Successes Required: 1. AP Limit: 1. Effect: Gain meaningful penetration inside Victoria with your intelligence service.
-[ ] Techmological Recovery (1 AP)
--[ ] Organize the Libraries: DC: 30. Successes Needed: 3 (2/3 complete). AP Limit: 2. Effect: Found the Great Library of Chicago, and get this unholy mess sorted out.

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Buli-buli, what do you think of moving that die from Expand the Department to shoring up Refugee Crisis?

 

[Pittauro]

I also read this as "if we fail the 1 dice at DC 35, we get the DC 70 roll", but I think we can afford to mess this up even less than we can afford to overspend a free AP. Alienating the refugee population would be a huge problem that messes us up for years to come, seconding uju32 on this.

Is there something not in my plan you think we need to be spending this AP on instead? (Assume I made the switch from 1 training to 1 boats that you wanted.) Because right now I'm not sure there's anything that's even half this critical.

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mh.. maybe the two mediation actions I'd say.

We basically publically stated we'd hold these talks, so not doing it is going to tarnish our reputation a bit.

[ ] Michigan Mediation: Your allies in Traverse City and the Michigan Soviet Republic has consented to your offer to arbitrate their dispute, with an eye towards normalizing relations and keeping your friendly powers on the Lower Peninsula from one another's throats. Organize the summit and get to work. DC: 30. Successes Required: 1. AP Limit: 2. Effect: Settle the grudges between Traverse City and the MSR, ensuring that your strategic allies in the LP remain settled.

[ ] Intervention In Minnesota: You have been called upon by a collection of states to lend your diplomatic weight to the question of which of the two claimants for the title of State of Minnesota is the more legitimate. This is a priceless opportunity to secure an ally to your west, and potentially further abroad, given the unexpected international attention to this flashpoint. DC: 10. Successes Required: 1. AP Limit: 1. Effect: Organize the summit to determine who is the more Minnesotan of the Minnesotas, and what to do about it. Unlocks further options.

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they're both a bit time sensitive. Maybe we can spend the second AP on refugee instead of one of this (I disagree, but it's an understandable position), but I think you're making a mistake by spending 1 free ap on education instead of one of these.

Re: The diplomatic mediation, I don't think we can afford to do it this turn. We certainly can't afford to both mediate and expand the State Department, and expanding the State Department feels like a better 2 AP play than doing both mediations, because then next turn we could handle them both without any free AP required at all. Yes, it'll make us look a little unprepared, but that's because a) we kind of *are* unprepared to handle this right now due to the aforementioned non-expanded State Department, and as such, b) we will be spending this time *getting* prepared so that we are literally twice as good at handling this stuff in the long run. It needs to be a top priority for next turn, but I don't think it'll be too bad if we don't do it this turn.

(Doing only one of the mediations this turn doesn't feel like a good option because then it makes us seem like we're showing favoritism, and I still don't think we can afford a third AP on top of 2 in State Department.)

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it's not a good idea, in my opinions, to not take the mediation options right now.

We're about to reveal the declaration of independence, have California revolt, and we're likely going to host a revivalist conference.

We want to look our best!

..honestly, as much as I hate it, I think I'm starting to agree with @picklepikkl about possibly delaying the expansion. The short term is probably more important than getting 1 extra ap 1 turn sooner...

 

[Pittauro]

Yeah, I'd back that. I guess it's actually only like a 40% chance that we'd actually succeed in expanding the department this turn even with two actions due to the high DC, so there's no guarantee we'd actually be able to address both mediations next turn without free AP required. As such, I can back plan Win the Peace on the condition that it moves 1 AP from Expanding the Department to Refugee Crisis. (Not putting 2 dice in Refugee Crisis is an instant deal-breaker for me, we can't afford to mess this up.) Next turn, though, we'd better finish that expansion. And found the Department of Education. There's only so long we can put off long term concerns before there's not much long term left.

Quoting the plan for convenience, had to scroll back to find it:



Buli-buli, what do you think of moving that die from Expand the Department to shoring up Refugee Crisis?

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yeah, in the end it's probably the best compromise we can take.

We get some extra safety on refugee, our most pressing internal problem, we do a bunch of other essential thing, and at least start both boats and expansion, even if we're sadly not going to get them immediately. Better than nothing, I suppose...