Turn 5
Word About the World
-The CFLP stabilizing is good news for us.
Internal political stability, internal political
predictability, makes it more likely you'd attract investment, both domestic and foreign.
-Similarly, increased trade flowing through Commonwealth territory is good for our economy and prestige.
Also, immigration. Its also worth noting that at the moment, given Victoria's straits, that trade through the Welland is a nontrivial flow of income to the civilian economy.
-The Crusader raid on Augusta is best thought of in terms of the ISIS advance through Iraq.
Remember when the Iraqi Army lost thousands of tons of military equipment to advancing ISIS columns, from Abrams tanks to Humvees?
That's what just happened here. Especially given the Vic predilection for loot. That defeated Army division just got looted like Orks.
The morale hit of losing the national capital is going to be significant.
The administrative hit is likely to be even more extreme, and longerterm to boot. A lot of day to day records just went away, especially since you KNOW the Crusaders would have gone after Inquisitor HQ.
Then you are looking at what diplomatic embassies there were to Victoria.
Also gone if the Crusaders torched the city, which is going to hurt Blackwell's ability to source international aid and arms shipments.
I AM surprised they went after Augusta instead of Boston, which is one of their few surviving international ports for arms shipments.
Bet Blackwell is regretting Victoria burning Montreal now, eh?
-Lol Miami.
-The South China Sea standoff implies interesting things about the political situation there.
The Balabac Strait is part of the maritime border between Malaysia and the Phillipines IRL. To have PACS forces there means either Malaysia is part of PACS, or Indonesia invaded western Malaysia and the rest of PACS condoned that for some reason.
The way a Chinese squadron leaving port ended things does say interesting things about the local balance of power.
And it points to the eroding strength of ImpeJapan locally vis a vis the other powers. The fact that a Chinese squadron was ready to deploy within 12 hours of the incident suggests either PACS/China coordination or DEFCON 2 alert levels.
-Brazil and Chile considering investment in Louisiana has as a prerequisite political stability in the area.
Which says suggestive things about the state of the political situation in the area, and which political players has been playing there.
Also, given the likelihood of significant emigre American populations in both Brazil and Chile as well as Argentina, it implies possibilities.
Yup, a rumor mill post.
I don't really like these things, but there's just so much happening that it'd be a colossal pain to write it all out narratively, and I want this out. Turn update imminent!
These things are always welcome, and I would not mind getting more of them as you think necessary.
-Nitpick: An open meeting like this?
Anything from a mobile phone with a recording app to actual electronic bugs could be listening in from the press gallery.
SCIFs exist for a reason IRL for when you choose to give classified briefings.
-Ah, Little Nicky ascends the throne. As expected.
I get the impression that Alexander certainly had help shuffling off this mortal coil. If nothing else, this coup suggests that either Nicky is very good at internal skulduggery, or he has backers who are. Doesnt necessarily translate to competence in other things mind; we might be looking at a Kaiser Wilhelm with a Bismarck or Moltke somewhere in the background. But it does mean that simply dismissing him is a bad idea.
A lot of people are going to have the satisfaction of having outlivedAlex, arent they? I wonder if Burns had a drink in celebration.
Or Sandra Steele.
-Katrina may or may not have wanted to be Tsar, but she was definitely blindsided by events. Note that while Katrina probably is under some form of house arrest? Its actually quite possible that she chose not to unduly contest things, on the basis that dude would screw things up badly enough that people would come looking for a replacement. Assuming he hasnt murdered his entire family.
This puts the assassination attempt on Katrina in a very different light though. And narrows the list of suspects.
-Note that among the missing Imperial Family members are other high military officials.
There's at least one Admiral in there, for instance; Pyotr, Nicky's older half brother.
Nicky was Army.
So on top of the palace politics, there's internal service rivalries at play here.
And Nicky has materially disrupted the command structure of one of their primary force projection arms. Not a problem for the Russian Empire's defence of its land borders, but definitely an issue if you intend to project power anywhere you cant walk or drive.
-Looking at the comments from other world leaders, all I have to say is Wow.
Wow.
Thats deep Cold War talk, hearkening back to the 1960s and 1980s, when you'd have things like Premier Kruschev waving his shoe while insulting diplomats to their face at the United Nations, and Reagan calling the Soviet Union an evil empire.
And it speaks volumes about their intelligence reports and opinions of Little Nicky.
Those relationships are starting out bad and getting worse fast.
-The omission of even pro forma lip service to Alexander's environmental initiatives is telling.
We are looking at someone who misses the whole point of soft power, and hasnt listened to anyone on the subject in years.
That's probably a bad thing longterm for Imperial Russia's aspirations to hegemony.
I wonder how old he is.
"My father took Russia from a failing regional power to the mightiest nation in the world," commented the new ruler in his first address as Tsar. "He was, without question, the greatest ruler Russia has ever had. He stands proud among the greatest of the Tsars. I am honored to take up his legacy, and lead Russia forward into the future." When asked about his immediate objectives, Tsar Nikolai said, "Russia is strong, but beset by enemies. Under my leadership, we will reassert ourselves as the foremost power in all the world. We will re-commit to our allies abroad. We will strengthen our position on the world stage. We will lead the world forward as first among nations."
Calling this out in particular, for those who missed it.
Odds are the Victorian Civil War is about to come to an abrupt end as Little Nicky's administration comes down off the fence and picks a side.
Depending on whether any unexpected economic shocks should happen to hit his budget
:stares meaningfully at the NCR:
I think the benefit of hosting the conference is way too marginal compared to tail risks of getting a group together to publicly announce "Hey World, America's coming back, come at me if you dare". I think that kind of move would very much empower the voices calling for Russia to do a gamer move, and as the current world hegemon they absolutely could just Afghanistan Intervention us. It might cost them everything, but it'd kill us first. I think this move would inflate our risks unnecessarily.
Furthermore, I am not convinced that the benefits outweigh the costs here - I'm not convinced that we'd get anything more than we are already in position to receive by sheer virtue of being one of the strongest central American state. This conference seems likely to increase our Legacy and strengthen a narrative of American reunification, but I don't think those narrative benefits are enough to outweigh the increased risks involved with taking such an action.
I strongly disagree.
Russia is already coming after us one way or the other, simply by nature of Alex's successor's national security apparatus continuing Alex's reflexive hostility towards us, and their support for Victoria as an instrument of foreign policy. And because we are probably the easiest target within relatively easy reach; Israel is closer, but nukes. California is twice as far away, and again, nukes.
Our very nation's legislative representatives make pronouncements like, and I quote, ["
The Commonwealth was founded on the fundamental idea that Russia and its puppets must be fought]. We do not hide it. Those risks were already priced in.
Yes, we shouldnt be unduly aggressive, but a defensive crouch offers no protection and passes up a lot of benefits.
Not to mention that prominence can be its own defence.
Harder to get permission to use Arctic Conservatiate airfields to attack the Commonwealth, for example, if that will exacerbate local civilian tensions.
Furthermore, we were already planning to unveil the Declaration of Independence
this year anyway.
The symbolism of its rediscovery on the three hundredth anniversary of the Old Country was already too tempting to pass up, and Alex's death just before it pops up doubles down on the symbolic significance of its re-emergence.
As for the rest, its worth remembering that claims to being the strongest central American state?
That does not means anything to an American expatriate living in a middle-income or First World country. First place in a race of cripples is not impressive to an Olympic runner.
And frankly, FCNY is economically stronger and richer.
And has more practice at threading the needle on that sort of thing anyway.
We're not going to succeed by being a knockoff FCNY.
We are in the business of selling a dream. Lean into it.
The Latin American are backing the Sons of Liberty (Shreveport)- the rival more-conservative revivalists in Louisiana who have a mysterious foreign backer. Half-a-dozen different Americas are far more manageable for Brazil than one America (while also being more valuable than the current anarchy), and backing a friendly rival government in the South would make sense for them. They're not going to offer us aid- why would they? They have their own regional ally and as long as that ally doesn't threaten to actually reunify America, they have no reason to cut them loose.
Point of order:
We cannot make assumptions about who in Latin America is pushing this, and for what reason.
Especially since Latin America is going to be lousy with American emigres. Dont jump to conclusions.
And frankly, Mexico would be an easier lift for Latin American intervention
The fact that this push is going into Louisiana means something.
Not sure what.
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