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I don't necessarily view them as fully serious claims, but many claims are made less with the intent of seriously claiming all of them rather than just creating a political wedge, cover for direct action, galvanizing the domestic populace, or to be negotiated down from. See the actual 9 Dash Line (which is a walkback of the 11 Dash Line the Chinese claim is justified by the Tokyo Peace Treaty) or Vietnamese or Phillipine claims for an example of claims that aren't made with the intent of grabbing everything but for other goals. The new ROC also wants to draw some distinction between them and the technocrats of the late PRC who got the country fragmented, and speaking as a Chinese person the key takeaway a lot of Chinese likely have is that the PRC was far to conciliatory and anti-interventionist (given that is one of the primary criticisms of current PRC foreign policy from domestic circles right now) and their foreign policy was largely bark without bite. That likely means taking a hardline foreign policy stance, which also ties in well with how many of their neighbours canonically feel nervous about a newly reunited and revanchist China.
I will however point out that in this story, it can just as easily be argued that it was the PRC's interventionism abroad, its overreach in North America in particular coupled with Russian destabilization, that resulted in the country's original collapse.And I will point out that the ROC's current foreign policy has avoided invading North Vietnam. Or South Korea. Or supporting the Cascadian Uprising.
With Malaysia collapsed, the Philippines occupied, and Vietnam split, there is no reason to treat the Chinese claims as negotiating positions anymore, so I definitely feel that that is the most seriously taken territorial claim, the implications of this claim likely being the primary reason why PACS and China aren't more closely aligned against Japan, while the claims on the former Outer Manchuria and Outer Mongolia likely are more created to satisfy domestic outrage against Russia. There are after all a number of canonical omakes that suggest that China's relations with Russia are even worse than European-Russian relations, along with the fact that Invaguely remember someone saying that using rubles in China is likely to get the locals demanding a very good explanation as to where they came from. The walkback from the Qing claims under the PRC was done to improve relations between the USSR and PRC after the civil war and after the 1969 War. There are few reasons to desire good relations now after Alexander singlehandedly almost treenacted the century of humiliation. Any claims made on the Russian Far East would be less actual demanded territory and more political and diplomatic messaging. Hence, the revival of the old ROC claims, IE the borders of the Qing Dynasty at its height.
Point of order:
We dont know anything about Malaysia yet. I dont believe that has been pinned down.
Similarly, I dont think has
As for the non-alignment of PACS and China, it could be as simple as being wary of getting overshadowed by the 800 pound gorilla
Or as dumb as racism.
I am reasonably certain that Imperial Russian-Chinese relations are much worse than European-Russian relations.
The canonized omake about the dead assassin makes it clear that Russian Intelligence don't think Western Europe would try to kill Katrina, while they believe the Chinese would. And possibly have tried before.
Last nations I remember sending killteams after members of the executive branches of other nations were North and South Korea in the 1960s.
Any Sino-Indian disputes would likely be slightly more serious, but still have a major messaging component to it. As it is right now, both India and China are ultimately willing to negotiate on a number of their claims on each others territory in the interest of functional relations, but ITTL India and China are clearly aligned against each other in the new global order and China likely lost all their currently disputed territory (and possibly a bit more) after PLA troops withdrew from the border zones to focus on the core. There is far less to lose by being aggressive in this scenario.
Like I said, China holds Aksai Chin now.
If they lost it at any point during the Collapse, I expect that may well come to blows.
But the Chinese government seem to be smart enough to pick one fight at a time, and their focus is on Japan and the Pacific atm.
Democratic China does not suddenly end up doveish and conciliatory. Political culture will reflect the mainland far more than Taiwan, and the events of the backstory are the perfect storm to generate enormous revanchist sentiment.
Noone's making the mistake of thinking democratic China is dovish, any more than democratic Commonwealth is, or democratic America is IRL, or democratic India. But we are assuming that their government is neither sociopathic nor stupid, as evidenced by their lack of precipitate action in the more than fifteen years since reunification.
And aware that they have an audience of more than just Southeast Asia, where it does matter that you dont just come off as Imperial Russia Part II.
They arent just going to Leeroy Jenkins into things
Indeed, the GM has mentioned they are a significant arms exporter, which suggests they are either selling them at a loss, or people trust them enough to buy defense gear from them.
Not a trivial consideration given what Russia did to Pakistan in the backstory.
I do believe that if the mentioned Hamburg bombing was part of a larger issue, then it meets the definition of mild civil unrest. Sure, it was mild, but something had to have occupied German attention enough that the primary support Poland received was arms and equipment rather than boots on the ground, and I definitely believe the Germans would have viewed the fall of Poland as a much more urgent crisis than the UK, France, or Italy unless an actual civil war broke out.
I can see your argument.
I dont agree with it, but I can see it.
Poland was probably never in any real danger of falling as long as it remained majority committed to opposing Imperial Russia.
Germany is Poland's biggest trading partner.
With China an ocean away and both France and Italy in turmoil, that is a pretty important relationship.
And Germany's forces are just a tank of gas across the border anyway; its about 570km from Berlin to Warsaw by road, which is roughly a tank of gas for a Leopard 2, and half a tank of gas for a Boxer. Alexander could not mass troops on that border faster than Germany could respond, and that's assuming Poland didnt build a nuclear arsenal of their own in the interim, or just steal a bunch of US/French/UK nukes in the Collapse.
Germany moving forces into Poland is political signalling at Russia(and others) of a more aggressive foreign policy, not a material change in policy regarding Poland's defense.
The Des Plaines-class already carried a marine detachment- it's quite possible that they were cross-trained and serving as crew, or just taking advantage of a fact everyone since the ancient Greeks has, which is that it's a lot easier to cram people into a ship if it normally gets to pull over ashore every few days and never spends that long away from port.
[Remember that the Des Plaines-class were originally designed to fulfill the needs of the Chicago Navy when Chicago was a city-state that normally projected power only through, at most, northern Illinois and southern Lake Michigan]
Point of order:
They transported marines/naval infantry at need. I think. I cannot find any textev they ever had an organic naval infantry detachment; there were none aboard at either the Buffalo Raid or the Battle of Leamington. All that tonnage was necessary for bunkering coal, which unlike diesel is both bulky and leaves coal ash residue pos-burning that has to be removed from the furnace and disposed of.
Look, go back and read the updates. The Des Plaines-class carried marine detachments. We saw this when capturing the Vick lakers. The Commonwealth Navy isn't going to want to give up that functionality entirely just because you don't think it's important. They will think of reasons to want to use that capability, and I know this because I can think of reasons.
I did reread the updates. Not to be snide, but have you?
There is no mention of naval infantry detachments in the information card of the Des Plaines design.
No mention of naval infantry during the Buffalo Raid.No mention of naval infantry during the Battle of Leamington when we were dealing with PoWs fished out of the water.
The two times they are mentioned is the capture of the beached laker, and later the taking of the suicide freighters, and then they are using assault boats and are close enough to home to have staged directly out of Detroit.
So can I get a quote for this assertion?
EDIT
Citation for marine infantry characterization I can find:
And now, the Lake front. On the Victorian side, cargo ships. On yours, the usual. You're being cautious, suspecting a trap. In this case, "cautious," means, "send the entire marine force on their speedboats to dogpile one of the smaller ships and secure it before they have any hope of scuttling. Use that as a barometer."
And finally, they're civilians attempting to prevent what is essentially an even-more-militarized company of amphibious SWAT teams from doing counter-terrorist work.
We got away with having fairweather gunboats during the Detroit War because the weather was coincidentally good when we needed it to be good. Relying on the weather to take sides in our favor doesn't sound like much of a long range plan.
This is an interim ship, like you suggested. A placeholder before the actual heavies come through.
We accept limitations in the design to keep costs down and get it this year instead of a better design next year or the year after. Its not going to be patrolling the Lakes in Sea State 6 weather because no one is going to be on the lakes in that kind of weather given the available techbase.
There are limits to what you can do within a budget that says "we need something now instead of in five years".
Not to mention that we will have other options, including air and surface launched weapons, in times of war.
You're doing the "cocksure" thing again- failing to take into account ways that events might not play out the way you plan.
Example: Suppose two years from now, despite a very inconsistently and incompletely modernized army, Blackwell tries to lean on Toronto and Hamilton to extort food from them. They come screaming to us for help. Do we turn them away, or do we fight the Vicks again? Tough decision, but I'd rather not have the decision be made for us because we're unprepared to fight the Vicks.
1) The defining characteristic of Blackwell is that he is the not-ideologically blinded Vic leader.
He's not supposed to make obvious mistakes.
But his threat vectors have multiplied at the same time he is supposed to be rebuilding his economy from scratch to support a future war.
He has to honor the threat of a rearming FCNY/New Jersey on his Atlantic flank. He has to maintain forces domestically to sit on the 2 million or so black and colored people (10% of a 20 million population, 6% of 30 million) he's driving back into the cities to act as industrial slaves to drive Vic economic recovery right after the Commonwealth shattered the Vic myth of military invincibility.
And he has to do this with a white males only force, who come out of a shrinking economic pool of military-age white males that have already suffered hundreds of thousands of deaths between the Detroit War, the Buffalo Incursion, the ongoing Civil War and food shortages.
Plus the post-civil war purges to come.
Said white males are ideologically the only ones allowed to do paid work outside the home besides maybe nursing and teaching, so they're economically critical. It takes at least 12 years to raise even a child soldier. Cant just make good your losses by acquiring a new batch from the factory.
Your scenario is basically positing that after just two years post-civil war, he's going to waste his most valuable resource(white Vic men) in deploying an incomplete army just 300km from Detroit(rough distance from Detroit to Hamilton), against a city/cities that have had two years of trade to fatten up on and arm up and build alliances.
With his ground logistics bottlenecked by a couple Welland bridges, Commonwealth air of at least 75 strike aircraft (50x captured F-16s + 25x prop aircraft) barely 30 minutes away, and a fortified Detroit playing forward base. And we've already demonstrated the capability of going from Detroit to the Hamilton area in 3 days at basically zero notice with old vehicles.
Im not going to complain if my enemies are stupid, but such a campaign would be politically, militarily and economically cretinous decision-making.
We are unlikely to be quite so lucky as to have the Vics making those sorts of decisions a second time.
2) Also,
If hes going after Toronto or Hamilton, he wont be in range of ship artillery since any such army would make the simple expedient of hugging the Lake Ontario shoreline of Lower Ontario, which is 43+ km from the Lake Erie shoreline. Well outside even conventional 155mm range, let alone 105mm.
If he goes after Toronto from the Quebec border, our navy has no role to play until we build those proposed frigates with the railguns and longrange SAMs or break into Lake Ontario.
Additionally, the Interim Gunboat is going to be serving other functions. It's not only there to fight Vicks, it's also there to provide a presence along the Mississippi river system and the Lakes in our backfield. The patrol boats you propose can do this, but the Des Plaines-class has capabilities the patrol boats lack, capabilities that from the Chicago Navy's experience make a real difference in dealing with exactly the kinds of problems we're likely to face in that environment.
1) Said capability is basically howitzer bombardment. Thats the only unique thing there.
I have a big gun fetish as much as the average Vic Quest player,*hides 155mm spec sheet* but its worth remembering thats all it is.
I mean, do remember that as things stand, the area of influence of our ships ends at 10 kilometers from the shoreline.
No weapon on any of our Gen1 ships, the Des Plaines or the Audreys, ranges further; the 40mm on the Audreys have a 1km better range than the 105mm howitzer option on a Des Plaines.
Until we get to building Gen 2 ships, that is not going to change.
Unlikely, due to cost. The US developed GPS guided artillery shells that have sub-1m accuracy... but cost $113k per round. No one's going wild with those. The point of arty shells are to be cheap so you can toss lots of them.
A drone for recon and shot spotting attached to each gun crew is very possible, though.
M1156 PGK(Precision Guidance Kit) is a plug-in GPS fuse for 155mm shells that converts your standard dumb shell into a smart weapon with a CEP of <30m; actual achieved field results point at an accuracy of <5m CEP as of 2014.
It costs around 10,000 dollars or less.
Basically, its JDAM for artillery.
The US sold 3500 of them to the Dutch in 2018 for 70 million while still in low rate production; take off half of that sum for the support contract and ancillary services, and you get 10k a fuse. The Australians bought a bunch for cheaper.
Which is very good for a backwards-compatible fuse.
It only entered full production in 2019. Expect those costs to fall
M1156 PGK(Precision Guidance Kit) is a plug-in GPS fuse for 155mm shells that converts your standard dumb shell into a smart weapon with a CEP of <30m; actual achieved field results point at an accuracy of <5m CEP as of 2014.
It costs around 10,000 dollars or less.
Note, that's allegedly LRIP pricing.
It should fall significantly in full rate production, and if they get it below 5k a round, into the alleged price range of the Pike, all bets are off.
At least at long range.
I doubt the Commonwealth would be able to routinely afford it, though.
The Des Plaines do carry naval infantry, who use the speedboats carried aboard, per the info card, to make boardings or landings. I honestly don't recall whether or not they are part of the listed crew complement, but if they are not, they are carried aboard so frequently that there are spaces set aside for their frequent use, under the understanding that the Des Plaines will be their go-to rideshare for 9/10 circumstances given their usual missions.
What are the chances of us establishing proper relations with the EU? We know New York City is basically a european protectorate. Iirc that´s why victoria couldn´t annex it. That shows to me that the EU is prepared to invest into NA and us getting the support of another superpower would profit us immensely. (possibly in a kind of reverse cold war situation with the EU using it´s massive economy and industry to send us supplies and arms to use us as a proxy against russia)
What are the chances of us establishing proper relations with the EU? We know New York City is basically a european protectorate. Iirc that´s why victoria couldn´t annex it. That shows to me that the EU is prepared to invest into NA and us getting the support of another superpower would profit us immensely. (possibly in a kind of reverse cold war situation with the EU using it´s massive economy and industry to send us supplies and arms to use us as a proxy against russia)
IIRC, there were international (possibly EU) observers at the local conference and at the Victorian peace talks. They also have a good impression of us, if the NYT reporter that is definitely not a BND source and the shocked German imint team they are likely inclined to like us. With Victorian power projection broken and the NCR poised to rebel, it is probably a scramble to get clients and allies in North America at this point and Chicago is, after the FCNY, the best positioned to receive EU assistance. Of course, that is contingent on the continued operation of the seaway, so clearing the Mississippi is naturally a priority of the Johnson Administration to secure an independent supply line.
IIRC, there were international (possibly EU) observers at the local conference and at the Victorian peace talks. They also have a good impression of us, if the NYT reporter that is definitely not a BND source and the shocked German imint team they are likely inclined to like us. With Victorian power projection broken and the NCR poised to rebel, it is probably a scramble to get clients and allies in North America at this point and Chicago is, after the FCNY, the best positioned to receive EU assistance. Of course, that is contingent on the continued operation of the seaway, so clearing the Mississippi is naturally a priority of the Johnson Administration to secure an independent supply line.
that sounds promising though I am unsure to which extend we should ally with the EU. Becoming a protectorate/ Vassal worked out very well for NYC, though something of the like is probably not on the table for us. I´d guess cold war Nato powerdynamics with the roles reversed is the best we could aim for
that sounds promising though I am unsure to which extend we should ally with the EU. Becoming a protectorate/ Vassal worked out very well for NYC, though something of the like is probably not on the table for us. I´d guess cold war Nato powerdynamics with the roles reversed is the best we could aim for
Yes, but the Cold War era power dynamics weren't quite so lopsided, and the US fundamentally required the European countries, specifically, for their foreign policy goals. The EU here is not similarly constrained. The ideal would be to play dofferent sponsors off of each other, but there would be logistical issues in aligning with China or PACS and who are much more likely to be spending most of their support on propping up California. There is very little information regarding Africa at this point, so that just leaves us with the EU and South America, the latter of which is meaningfully less invested in opposing the Tsar and which requires an open Mississippi, and who would much more likely be already spending much of their foreign aid budget on Miami. It's unfortunate, but the EU is the biggest game in town for Chicago in my opinion and that means less opportunity to play potential sponsors off of each other.
Yes, but the Cold War era power dynamics weren't quite so lopsided, and the US fundamentally required the European countries, specifically, for their foreign policy goals. The EU here is not similarly constrained. The ideal would be to play dofferent sponsors off of each other, but there would be logistical issues in aligning with China or PACS and who are much more likely to be spending most of their support on propping up California. There is very little information regarding Africa at this point, so that just leaves us with the EU and South America, the latter of which is meaningfully less invested in opposing the Tsar and which requires an open Mississippi, and who would much more likely be already spending much of their foreign aid budget on Miami. It's unfortunate, but the EU is the biggest game in town for Chicago in my opinion and that means less opportunity to play potential sponsors off of each other.
so european vassal/protectorate is probably going to happen? I mean given the alternatives it is our best shoot and the EU seems to be a pretty hands off master for the stuff they give in return judging from what we´ve seen in NYC
so european vassal/protectorate is probably going to happen? I mean given the alternatives it is our best shoot and the EU seems to be a pretty hands off master for the stuff they give in return judging from what we´ve seen in NYC
I said it would probably be difficult, not inevitable. For example, a fleshed out West African power such as Nigeria could present themselves in a similar position as South America, wherein they don't have the inherent opposition to Imperial Russia and sheer strength as the ROC, EU, or PACS, but could still be used as secondary patrons provided the Chicago government gives access privileges, but that is again contingent on an open Mississippi. Ultimately, I think that the EU would be our primary international patron, but an independent California could actually also provide some assistance kn the form of low-volume, high-value goods transportable by air freight, for example.
Of course, this is all just my opinion based on guessing some conclusions from existing lore and how the worldbuilding goes could likely overturn this.
I said it would probably be difficult, not inevitable. For example, a fleshed out West African power such as Nigeria could present themselves in a similar position as South America, wherein they don't have the inherent opposition to Imperial Russia and sheer strength as the ROC, EU, or PACS, but could still be used as secondary patrons provided the Chicago government gives access privileges, but that is again contingent on an open Mississippi. Ultimately, I think that the EU would be our primary international patron, but an independent California could actually also provide some assistance kn the form of low-volume, high-value goods transportable by air freight, for example.
Of course, this is all just my opinion based on guessing some conclusions from existing lore and how the worldbuilding goes could likely overturn this.
I don´t know how reliable Nigeria would be. Iirc Northern and western africa are either European or russian vassals or hotbeads of both superpowers fighting for influence and control. Plus Nigeria has a massive rainforrest and i am pretty sure that imperial russia would´ve destroyed them to protect it. Given how instable that nations is it wouldn´t even been particulary difficult. Even if it isn´t, chances it´s a under defacto EU control/influence like OTL.
California might help but that is dependent if they win their independence war
africa is to weak, china is to far away and SA will do everything it can to prevent the reunification of america. The only one of those powers that has shown sufficient interest in the NA to play it´s muscle is the EU with it´s colony in NYC
yes, but Russia won´t accept that. There will almost certainly be a war, at least imo. Otl California has an economy bigger than russia. Maybe it is smaller here but that is a price that Russia can not just let go, especially since cali allying with Chicago more or less means that the america of old is certainly coming back. The tzar had a crisis about there being just a single major state in america not under his thumb, he won´t, can´t accept a second one, especially since that can ally with his enemies reclaim america against russia
First, Nigeria doesn't have a massive rain-forest, most of Nigeria is wet savanna. Only the southern tip of Nigeria has any appreciable rain-forest, as seen in this map. So I can't imagine that would be why Russia would attack Nigeria.
Second, when Russia targets a state for destruction, they tend to be picked under specific circumstances. Either Alex has a personal vendetta (the US), a petro-state (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela), or a geopolitical rival (the US, and for a time China on technicality).
Russia's actions regarding countries with good environmental policies or with important natural carbon sinks have so far been ones of bribery, not destruction. See how Brazil wasn't obliterated but bribed into maintaining the Amazon. Even in the case where Nigeria had abundant rain-forest, I highly doubt that Russia would seek to destroy Nigeria. After all, Nigerian state collapse would likely lead to more deforestation as victims do anything they can to survive the short term.
But of course that's a non-existent hypothetical, because Nigeria doesn't have that much rain-forest to begin with. Whether Nigeria is alive or not will have everything to do with how they dealt with the economic crisis, not direct Russian shenanigans.
First, Nigeria doesn't have a massive rain-forest, most of Nigeria is wet savanna. Only the southern tip of Nigeria has any appreciable rain-forest, as seen in this map. So I can't imagine that would be why Russia would attack Nigeria.
huh, for some reason I´ve been thinking of the congo.
Still i strongly doubt that nigeria could have become anything close to a strong power in the chaos of the collapse and it´s own domestic troubles, but that is probably something for the worldbuilding thread
yes, but Russia won´t accept that. There will almost certainly be a war, at least imo. Otl California has an economy bigger than russia. Maybe it is smaller here but that is a price that Russia can not just let go, especially since cali allying with Chicago more or less means that the america of old is certainly coming back. The tzar had a crisis about there being just a single major state in america not under his thumb, he won´t, can´t accept a second one, especially since that can ally with his enemies reclaim america against russia
California rebelling presents Alexander with serious problems, especially with Victoria crippled, which deprives him of his usual source of sepoys to serve Russian interests in a North American conflict. What it comes down to is that deploying sufficient forces to win against an insurgency in California would be a very large strain on his resources.
California rebelling presents Alexander with serious problems, especially with Victoria crippled, which deprives him of his usual source of sepoys to serve Russian interests in a North American conflict. What it comes down to is that deploying sufficient forces to win against an insurgency in California would be a very large strain on his resources.
Plus, doesn't he need such forces closer at home, to deal with unrest in the parts of Central Asia and Eastern Europe he swallowed and to check the forces of his rivals on his border? Just because everyone involved has a nuclear deterrent doesn't mean Alex can just ignore EU Battlegroups along the Vistula or Chinese Group Armies along the Heilongjiang, Cold War style. The fundamental premise of the quest is that Alexander no longer has the ability to project force to squat on North America with the same intensity that he used to.
Alexander, but yeah. I think we've had enough examples at this point in history to say that tyrannical dictatorships (which is closer to what ITL Russia is than a monarchy, regardless of the titles used) are not great for long-term stability. The conquests and client states (not to mention plot shields) could only stave it off for so long.
Updated the explanation of Congressional-Presidential power balance to be less aggressively phrased, hopefully presenting the information better.
Also, the first time I just tried to run NetTally from the old Vote Open post, it crashed. Too many pages. 2,000 messages for it to parse. I have detected a potential flaw in the high level of reader engagement. In the event, though, a mere 1,000 messages was quite within its abilities as it happens.
Vote Closed.
Vote Tally : Victoria Falls: A Post-Collapse American Nation Quest [Down With Victoria!] | Page 902 | Sufficient Velocity [Posts: 22547-23292] ##### NetTally 2.2.4
[X][RIVER] Deny the alliance. You don't need to pick this fight over something the size of the SRR. If the Youngs cause problems, you can fight them then. No. of Votes: 1
[X] Exterminatus
[X][MEDIATE] If it's not, it's not. You have no interest in intervening. Let them sort it out like adults. No. of Votes: 4
[X] Dermon
[X] Exterminatus
[X] NyxNull
[X] Raiseth
Total No. of Voters: 67
Your winners!
[X][FEUD] Pitch a Hail Mary and see if they'll listen to you if you try to mediate their disputes. Prompts a roll, DC 43.
[X][COMMIES] Guarantee the Commune's independence. Another friendly power on Lake Erie is hardly a bad thing to have.
[X][RIVER] Agree to the alliance. The Kingdom isn't a large problem, but it could definitely cause issues for your plans for the Mississippi. You're happy to limit their opportunities for expansion.
[X][MEDIATE] Oh, but it is. You have no immediate interest in Minnesota but whatever's going on between Bemidji and Manitoulin intrigues you, and you very much do have a medium-term interest in resolving this conflict to your west before it becomes your problem, later. You will have the option to organize this mediation.
In the event, though, a mere 1,000 messages was quite within its abilities as it happens.