its the Tiers thats important. If the one you are challenging doesnt know you have X skill...trump card, then they cant defend against it or make preparations to negate or avoid said trump card.
And on trump cards, most any of the Arts or hidden jumps in cultivations here are pretty significant trump cards since they apply to a wider variety than just for battle, and that increase in cultivation if kept secret enough, could give someone time to properly solidify their position so they can jump tiers and then hold that fort till you are ready for another increase in cultivation.
Basically, the system might seemingly favor varied skill, but the challengers must trick the challenged into picking trapped choices or else get stuck being a one trick pony.
Imagine if you will, someone being challenged by rank 790. Unless you can stomp him, you would definately never choose a head on fight. But, what if the choice you pick is something disciple 790 happened to have a trup card on?
Thing to remember, is that the Elders choose the choices. Meaning they will only reasonably pick those where the challenger has either a chance to win, or enough skill they think they can use to win.
Even with deep CP reserves, refusing challenges regularly is a sure wait to squander your wealth. Sure, they might be able to refuse a challenge or ten, but that means lots of lost CP. At best, they can earn back the lost CP by regularly doing missions, but at that point you've got people dumping serious amounts of time and effort merely to avoid a challenge.
My primary point is that both of these claims are mostly irrelevant.
What happens if you lose a challenge? You slide
one rank. There's very little point to ever refusing a challenge even when you know for 99% certain that you will lose. Since the system encourages accepting challenges to an absolutely
absurd degree, there's little point in sandbagging defensively. The idea that you have a trump doesn't matter much except for people moving up in the ranks, in that it allows them that mobility in the first place. Hiding the trump may mean challenges that favor your trump are chosen more often... except that losing doesn't matter much, so why would they bother even knowing who you are nevermind what your skills are? They just pick somewhere they're strong, and hope it matches well, and if it doesn't
it didn't matter because they only lose one rank!
If you are the challenger, your trump is an advantage that you might want to hide in moving
UP the ranks, because it means the person ahead of you selects badly. But it's not a disadvantage for the challenged, because even if your trump beats them, they don't care that much. The matchup
doesn't matter for the person being challenged. They just don't care.
In that case, if you are challenged,
you don't use your trump. There is no point in using a trump to defeat a challenge. Hiding a trump for defensive purposes is totally pointless. If you only want to win a lot of challenges defensively, you could try a broad skill focus, since you always get to pick the subject, but again the
reward for doing this is questionable. TimEd, you seem to imply I suggested that a
challenger might want to be skill focused, but in fact I am only talking about someone who wants to be
challenged.
The exception might be at the highest ranks, if there are
strong differences between just a single rank, then hiding skills starts to matter.
I basically agree with you, PrimalShadow, that there's not much point in refusing challenges regularly, but we know that there are long-term sect jobs (basically full-time jobs) that pay out in absurd quantities of CP. These people are naturally advantaged in refusing challenges, ONLY IF there was incentive to do so mind you (by default there is not). So they are really the only people who can afford to refuse with any regularity as the economics are totally different for them.