Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

[o11c]

Of all days to not aggressively check this thread ...

I asked Yrs how many Bai Sun Shao killed [...] Probably 20-30 or so, basically their entire prism cadre and a chunk of violets

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Reasonably some Prisms would've survived. With a little genre savviness, the loss of Violets is actually the bigger problem, since that's the next generation of potential Prisms.

"Whatever your reasons, you are embroiled now. I commend you boy, not many will go against their clan interests even when matters are dire," Cao Chun said with a harrumph.

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Ah, but Mr. Grumpypants, you're forgetting something: it's not so surprising to go against clan interests when there's a pretty girl watching. What was the word he used? Edit: fascinating

Our victory condition is [...]

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Really we should look at the numbers when talking about our domestic victory analysis. Currently we have:

-Meng Clan: -1
--Weilu Conservatives(50%): -1
--Weilu Reactionaries(25%): -4
--Weilu Reformers(25%): 3

(note: see also the relationship-level definitions in that post)

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The things that can change here are:

• a subgroup likes or dislikes what we did
• a subgroup thinks we're a viable target (positively or negatively) or doesn't dare risk it
• the size of a subgroup increases or decreases (whether due to people dying, or due to popularity/stigma/advertising)
  • this includes "what do other subgroups think of this subgroup"

Regardless of what happens, it seems certain that Meng Conservatives are not going to be happy with the Reactionaries for pulling this stunt (this works both if it turns out there were collaborators among apparent Conservatives, or if the Conservatives were abused), so the effective number of Reactionaries will likely decrease. The question is whether Conservatives will like or hate the fact that we exposed it (face), and whether their size will change beyond reallocating Reactionary percentage.

It seems reasonable that our friends the Reformers will increase in number (popularity) and/or relationship level (but reaching 4 is a significant milestone and this might not be enough to "earn" it), but it's not impossible that if there's enough negative effect against the clan in general they might take a step back from us.

And of course ... if Reactionaries continue to exist as a group, they might no longer have "significant resources", but just what happens if they hate us even more? Or dare we hope they calm down? There's certainly dislike among the rank-and-file but top-down influence is always an exacerbating factor.

So I would define our victory condition as "through some combination of factors, the Meng reach average regard level of 0 or higher, and after a few months there is no functional agency that has fallen to level -5".

 

[ImperatorV]

So... I seem to recall there was some quote from Yrsillar talking about how the way events play out in the final section would depend on our actions up until that point? I think we just hit one of the break-points. If we didn't have the Ministry rep + Cao Chun bond at zero or higher, this would have played out significantly worse for everyone involved. Now the Meng reformers have a heads-up for getting their shit in order, and we can gain intel from Meng Diu about SWD. Even one less Ministry rep could have made this situation much worse.

I wonder if there are any other major break-points we will need to pass in the near future. It's a good thing we piloted favorability trading so well huh?

 

[Skyspear]

He tried to mind control a White Serpent Bai. He is a dead man. Cai Shenhua is trying to actually be allies with the Bai, targeting Meizhen (who is Suzhen's favorite niece, remember) is thus a death sentence. All the rest would, I think, be much worse than you're assuming but that part right there? That's why he burns.

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Honestly, it would take several more assassination attempts just to make Meizhen feel at home, and whatever their intentions, Silly Otter Dancing only succeeded in mucking around in her much less important servant's mind. Like yes, he's going to get slapped down, and yes, he might die, but Cai Shenhua's not going to kick the Meng out of existence or anything.

 

[DeadmanwalkingXI]

Honestly, it would take several more assassination attempts just to make Meizhen feel at home, and whatever their intentions, Silly Otter Dancing only succeeded in mucking around in her much less important servant's mind. Like yes, he's going to get slapped down, and yes, he might die, but Cai Shenhua's not going to kick the Meng out of existence or anything.

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This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the Bai, I think. From their perspective, White Serpent Bai are allowed to try and kill each other. Other people are not allowed to mess with White Serpent Bai. At all. It's a pride thing, and the Bai will 100% go to war over it. Suzhen might normally be a little less inclined to do that than most Bai, but given who Meizhen is? It's not a situation Cai Shenhua is gonna want to leave unaddressed. Whether the whole Clan will suffer is a slightly different question...keeping it to SWD alone may be possible, but SWD is dead.

 

[veekie]

This dude's Cultivation and Way wouldn't let him accept what's happening here. Add in the Bai being even tangentially connected and it gets even worse from the Archivist of the Reviled's POV.

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Compounded, his Way would have been chafing like sandpaper.
Almost very part of his combined Names are opposed to what Shenhua is doing, I assume he's been holding off because its easier to justify inaction when facing an unbeatable force, but Ling Qi here produces a Cai associated event but run by Third Realms.

At which point his Way simply did not allow anything but confrontation anymore.

 

[Valmond]

I think the smart (but not necessarily moral or ethical) play for the Meng here is to grab SWD (alive, preferrably), and anyone who seems to agree with him, hand them over to Cai "totally chill about the Hui" Shenhua and watch the fireworks.
And then spend the next couple centuries as supporting her and her daughter every way they can to rebuild some trust/legitimacy.

 

[TheCount]

Cao Chun's Bond -1 + Ministry Favorability 1= 0

Total is not negative! Persuasion Success.

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oh man.... this was close...
At least, now we know that personal bond and organizational favorability can cancel or overwhelm each other which is great news, and something to keep in mind for the next diplomatic incident.

The game's afoot! Our efforts of actually working with the Ministry paying off big time at a critical moment!

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It was really good we had a positive favorability with the ministry because if not this would become more complicated

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If only they had given us more possibilities that don't go counter to whats the summit's goal is....

 

[memoryofglory]

No. He won't.

The Duchess is involved.

All she has to do is walk every one of them in front of her and look at them.

The Meng belong to her, and some of them have done something that she finds deeply, personally offensive.

The Ministry has done good work, but they aren't really required for this next bit.

If they like, she can maybe let them have the mewling pieces of human wreckage that are left when she's done to sort of poke at and interrogate.

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You completely misunderstood me here. I don't mean 'Cao Chun needs authorization from anyone for Cai Shenhua to take action.' She doesn't give a damn about whether the MoI gets it's shit together before she moves or not. I mean 'Cao Chun was sent over to be an observer who would only be providing part of the security arrangements for this summit, not expecting to need to flip an entire count clan over and shake it until the traitors fall out.' He probably literally doesn't have the manpower on hand and will need to call his boss to get more agents sent over.

Given how he's been leading this investigation Shenhua's not going to refuse to let them take action. I'm just making a comment on the resources he has on hand being limited, much like our own. We both need to kick this up the chain to the Duchess/a higher ranking minister to get proper resources on task for this.

There's a lot of jumping to "Mama Cai will raze the Meng", but so far Steep Wattle Dreaming has just screwed with foreigners, low-ranking Bai, and his own Clan. Yes, it's in a way that might make Renxiang look bad, and yes, he's using Questionable Techniques, but if Shenhua was going to get rid of everyone who hates cloud barbarians or the Bai, she'd be ruling a tenth of her province, and if she were going to get rid of everyone using Dream techniques, Ling Qi would've been a smear of ashes several books ago.

This probably ends with the Meng paying a heavy fine and Stream Water Dripping suffering public humiliation or possibly even exile (which, given their Way, is probably worse than death). A functional Duke doesn't ice a major Clan because one cultivator tried to kick over her kid's science fair project.

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This is a project openly sponsored by the Cai, with every count clan in the Emerald Seas in attendance, every province except the Golden Fields sending an observer, and Ministry of Integrity oversight, that's being sabotaged by a Cai vassal with Hui techniques. And one of the people targeted was the official Bai ambassador, the beloved niece of their current clan heir. The only way he could slap her in the face more is by calling Diao Linqin a whore.

It's true that she probably wouldn't nuke an entire clan for a single bad actor, but we still don't know how many people are working with this guy. Even if he's alone, if he managed to at least make it look like the official Meng representative and the guy they tried to attach to her daughter's retinue were working with him willingly before getting them killed that would've been bad news for the Meng's continued survival.

Edit: You also forgot how he targeted Shenhua's Cyan astronomer guy, a sergeant in the White Plumes, and several work crews full of Emerald Seas citizens. He has most certainly not only been fucking with foreigners and his own clan lol.

 

[Karthak Urzak]

He tried to mind control a White Serpent Bai. He is a dead man. Cai Shenhua is trying to actually be allies with the Bai, targeting Meizhen (who is Suzhen's favorite niece, remember) is thus a death sentence. All the rest would, I think, be much worse than you're assuming but that part right there? That's why he burns.

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And they haven't even told Meng Diu this part yet. If she's swearing now, just wait until she hears about the attempted mindfuck of the Bai heir's favourite niece. The famously forgiving Bai clan.

 

[TheCount]

And they haven't even told Meng Diu this part yet. If she's swearing now, just wait until she hears about the attempted mindfuck of the Bai heir's favourite niece. The famously forgiving Bai clan.

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Don't forget SWD has also tried to go for the Cai retianer, who is from the General's clan...
Who knows if he would have tried to jump into CRX or as well or provoke the general herself....

 

[Karthak Urzak]

There's a Jin right there. Xuan Shi isn't part of the investigation I think but zero chance he won't hear about at least some of it. And the resident monkey boy is from what I've gathered an apprentice of the Zheng spymaster.
So SWD has managed to drag the Meng name into the mud in front of the Cai, Bai, Zheng, Jin, Xuan, Ministry of Integrity, foreign relatives, the butcher, baker and candlestick maker.

 

[veekie]

I think the smart (but not necessarily moral or ethical) play for the Meng here is to grab SWD (alive, preferrably), and anyone who seems to agree with him, hand them over to Cai "totally chill about the Hui" Shenhua and watch the fireworks.
And then spend the next couple centuries as supporting her and her daughter every way they can to rebuild some trust/legitimacy.

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Given SWD's Words and actions this is a final ride. I don't think a live capture is in the cards when our best bet is Xia Ren takes her sword of destroying Bad History to Literally Cultivates Bad History so fast they can't retaliate or suicide bomb

 

[Valmond]

Given SWD's Words and actions this is a final ride. I don't think a live capture is in the cards when our best bet is Xia Ren takes her sword of destroying Bad History to Literally Cultivates Bad History so fast they can't retaliate or suicide bomb

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Oh i definitely agree that as far as SWD is concerned, this is do or die mission.
But getting them to Shenhua alive would still be vastly preferrable to the Meng just so they can't be accused of trying to hide anything.
Extremely difficult, possibly downright impossible, but if there is a change of doing so without insanely high cost, it would be in theMeng's best interest to be seen to at least try.

 

[Doramas]

It entirely depends on the degree of involvement the Reactionaries are in:
Active collaboration, passive collaboration, incitement, willful ignorance, genuine ignarance and so on.
As well as how many of the Reactionary faction are involved.

In any case, the Reactionaries are going to suffer a serious blow, but the difference lays on total radiant annihilation or not.

Even the Conservatives, since I'm pretty sure the current Head belongs to that faction, are going to be made to hold some responsibility.
Because all this happened right under their noses, and it's the clan Head's duty to manage the Elders and different factions and prevent such incidents.
This is true even in the case that SWD is a genuine lone wolf rogue Elder without any (willing) collaborators.

We are really lucky to have secured the Reformist faction's help.
Because now we can frame it as the Meng performing an internal removal of rot, which will save them a lot of face and prevent our relation with them from exploding.

 

[Valmond]

I suspect any passive collaboration is going to be treated like active collaboration.
Anything short of genuine ignorance is not going to survive an encounter with Shenhua.

 

[storryeater]

There's a lot of jumping to "Mama Cai will raze the Meng", but so far Steep Wattle Dreaming has just screwed with foreigners, low-ranking Bai, and his own Clan. Yes, it's in a way that might make Renxiang look bad, and yes, he's using Questionable Techniques, but if Shenhua was going to get rid of everyone who hates cloud barbarians or the Bai, she'd be ruling a tenth of her province, and if she were going to get rid of everyone using Dream techniques, Ling Qi would've been a smear of ashes several books ago.

This probably ends with the Meng paying a heavy fine and Stream Water Dripping suffering public humiliation or possibly even exile (which, given their Way, is probably worse than death). A functional Duke doesn't ice a major Clan because one cultivator tried to kick over her kid's science fair project.

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Honestly, I couldn't disagree more, based on my read of the setting. Firstly, the guy committed three unforgivable sins:

1) He messed with officially sanctioned Bai. Even if they weren't allied with Shenhua, no Duke would want this hot potato in his hands, because the Bai are VINDICTIVE.
2) He used Hui methods, and not the benign ones (if those even exist). This puts you in the shitlist of the entire province, ESPECIALLY Shenhua.
3) He used something that can be described as "binding people". This is a MAJOR Imperial taboo.

Now, the Meng clan's fate is to be determined, these are not necessarily clan-damning actions if they disavow the guy who did it as a lone actor. But any of those sins will result on the guilty party's head on the chopping block, not only in a Shenhua regime, but in any Duke's regime*, unless heavy nepotism is involved, and even if heavy nepotism is involved, this is the kind of thing that leads to the Sun rebellion.

But even putting that aside... Shenhua herself admits that she is not a functional Duke. She has ruled well until now, sure, but her Dao makes it so it only takes one bad sequence of events until she goes overboard and fucks shit up. She knows it, it's why she wants CRX to stop her. Her wife knows it, which is why she spends most of her day trying to stop her from fucking the Dukedom up, and why she has not killed CRX. CRX knows it, and has shared it with Ling Qi and Gan Guangli. It would not even be the first Count clan she culls, although admittedly, the other ones were the results of rebellion, so this one will be a tougher political pill.

So yes, making sure to minimize collateral is our responsibility, because there is a decent chance Cai Shenhua won't try.

*Ok, 2 will probably not ping most Dukes unless you replace "Hui" with "state-appropriate villains", like, the equivalent is Bailand would be conspiring with the Sun, the equivalent in Sunland would be conspiring with the Bai, the equivalent in the wasteland would be using the ash walkers as a political tool, etc. And 1 would probably earn you a commendation from the Sun, although of the other clans, not even the Zheng would tolerate it past a certain point. Mind control, however, is past any conceivable line, I wouldn't be surprised if just outright killing them is viewed in a less negative light. However, I admit that if we ignore all context and take point 1 as a standalone, I imagine the Zheng allow for messing with the Bai a little bit, as a treat. But you get my point.

 

[The Laurent]

I guess one thing we are doing with the, "Working with the Weilu Reformers in the Meng" is providing Shenhua with an outlet/answer that doesn't involve burning them to the ground or otherwise taking drastic actions.

The Conservatives and Reactionaries falling out of favor or in some cases if they're involved losing their heads (or going into exile or whatever else) as the bold, transformative Reformers step up to the plate at least has the mouthfeel of Revolution, after all. It's an outcome that would fit with how she's made herself view the world, without being an outcome that would also spark outrage or trouble beyond the Meng.

 

[veekie]

Oh i definitely agree that as far as SWD is concerned, this is do or die mission.
But getting them to Shenhua alive would still be vastly preferrable to the Meng just so they can't be accused of trying to hide anything.
Extremely difficult, possibly downright impossible, but if there is a change of doing so without insanely high cost, it would be in theMeng's best interest to be seen to at least try.

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I meant that a Sovereign intending to succeed or die trying may literally self destruct to do more damage. Crippling one to the point where they can't do so without killing them would be extremely hard to pull off.

 

[Valmond]

I meant that a Sovereign intending to succeed or die trying may literally self destruct to do more damage. Crippling one to the point where they can't do so without killing them would be extremely hard to pull off.

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Yes, i get that, which is why managing it might be downright impossible.
It would require some sort of insta incapacitation, and managing something like that to a sovereign, while possible, might require white level techniques, and i doubt anyone is going to manage to sneak Shenhua quietly into striking distance.

 

[Karthak Urzak]

I asked Yrs about Sovereign toughness.

Q: It's been said that you cannot kill Sovereigns in one blow. What is it about Violet and up cultivators that make them immune to being one-shotted?

A: The spiritual robustness that comes with having a nearly fully developed way, just as no well constructed arguement can be refuted with a single statement, no sovereign cultivator can be broken apart in one blow.
Plus at that point you are fully and completely free of biological restraints and you are basically an energy being that happens to still wear a body suit.

So Xia Ren killing SWD with one strike is not on the menu.

 

[veekie]

But even putting that aside... Shenhua herself admits that she is not a functional Duke. She has ruled well until now, sure, but her Dao makes it so it only takes one bad sequence of events until she goes overboard and fucks shit up. She knows it, it's why she wants CRX to stop her. Her wife knows it, which is why she spends most of her day trying to stop her from fucking the Dukedom up, and why she has not killed CRX. CRX knows it, and has shared it with Ling Qi and Gan Guangli. It would not even be the first Count clan she culls, although admittedly, the other ones were the results of rebellion, so this one will be a tougher political pill.

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Would observe this:

No one spoke while the minister was speaking, nor in the aftermath as Shenhua pondered the answer. Then, the Duchess began to chuckle. It was not a happy sound, to be frank, it sent a chill down the back of her neck. Going from the faint unease rising from the court, they didn't care for it either.

Thankfully the Duchess' humor faded quickly. "Rotting a hole for two centuries, how very fitting. I might be cross that you put him out of his misery, young lady."

"I-that is-" Xia Lin stuttered, undoubtedly pressured by her grace's gaze.

"I am not of course. You did well in cleansing such a lingering pustule. He was surely too mad to suffer further by this point," The Duchess said dismissively.

Despite the dismissal, Ling Qi still felt a frisson of discomfort. The tinge of scorn and cruelty in Cai Shenhua's tone felt foreign compared to her previous experiences with the Duchess. Even with everything she had experienced through Renxiang, such emotion did not suit the Duchess.

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Shenhua's nature may be making her restless when she's stuck at court unable to execute her prime directive. Linqin is tempering this, but...lets not give her an excuse.

 

[Elsecaller]

There's a lot of jumping to "Mama Cai will raze the Meng", but so far Steep Wattle Dreaming has just screwed with foreigners, low-ranking Bai, and his own Clan.

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Also a member of the white plumes, Shenhua's official astronomer and multiple work details, not to mention he attempted to kill Qi when she found his worm and she's a Cai Retainer.

 

[The Laurent]

If we hadn't interfered the death toll from his actions would probably be in the hundreds by now, both directly from the shit he was doing, but also because the whole conference would have dissolved into a battle.

E: I'm obviously not counting the long-term death toll, because that's less concrete.

 

[Elsecaller]

So... I seem to recall there was some quote from Yrsillar talking about how the way events play out in the final section would depend on our actions up until that point? I think we just hit one of the break-points. If we didn't have the Ministry rep + Cao Chun bond at zero or higher, this would have played out significantly worse for everyone involved. Now the Meng reformers have a heads-up for getting their shit in order, and we can gain intel from Meng Diu about SWD. Even one less Ministry rep could have made this situation much worse.

I wonder if there are any other major break-points we will need to pass in the near future. It's a good thing we piloted favorability trading so well huh?

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I could see us facing something similar with Xia Ren. Thankfully our white plume rep is surprisingly good.

 

[Karthak Urzak]

I could see us facing something similar with Xia Ren. Thankfully our white plume rep is surprisingly good.

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Not a single thing Ling Qi has done during the entire summit and leading up to it has pissed off the General. It's a miracle.