It's a Girl's World -- And Lilly wants Adventure

@Alectai Something else that may have been overlooked, in all this:

One of Lilly/Waters will kill the other in every near-term future. This is an extremely all-encompassing prediction, which itself is telling.

If we run away in the opposite direction, one of Lilly/Waters kills the other. If we hide in the cities, one of Lilly/Waters kills the other. If we base in the forests, one of Lilly/Waters kills the other. If we sail across the Silent Sea, one of Lilly/Waters kills the other.

This strongly--if not outright--implies that Waters has a method to track Lilly, the means to project force no matter where she goes, and the inclination to see the task through.

In other words, laying low is not an option. We go big (recruit an army strong enough to match him) or go back to our burnt-down home.

...

Update: estimated timeline of mortal battle is narrowed down to "before we can amass power" (as our doing so would allow us to choose not to bother, invalidating the prophecy). Ironically, this means the more optimistic you are about Lilly's progression, the sooner Waters is expected to find us.
 
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I personally just don't want to start a rebellion when we have no idea what the actual political issues are, where we can't easily recruit very good soldiers, and for us to be much stronger before doing so.

One person (Cirella the Siren) was mentioned to have the power to use their ethos to create essentially 1000 invincible soldiers.
Notably, the mechanic of Cirella's power seems to be something like "if hit one of my soldiers, you hit ALL my soldiers, but 1/1000th as badly." So if someone hits a Cirella's Thousand soldier in the neck with a big axe, instead of Cirella now having 999 living soldiers and one decapitated soldier, she will still have 1000 living soldiers, all with identical 0.12-millimeter-deep cuts in the side of their necks.

There are obvious practical limitations to this ability, mind you- chief among them area effects that don't rely on individual damaging wounds. A fragmentation bomb probably wouldn't work too well because each individual bit of shrapnel would only penetrate 1/1000th or so as far, so you'd just have a lot of soldiers sheepishly brushing bits of metal out of themselves. But flames or poison gas could work pretty well, I should think, and the unit wouldn't have exceptional ability to keep going through conditions that affect everyone in the unit. Though depending on the range limitations, they could very well just have 990 soldiers hang back singing the song, and send the other 10 forward singing the song, and push through damn near anything.

We are unlikely to become politically aware until it becomes far, far too late to do anything about it. Our only plausible chance for a loyal army is to lean on Martin with our sorely-bought advantages; and we need to do so now.
...What?

Lilly has supernatural abilities that are burgeoning rapidly in many directions. She's already repeatedly demonstrated supernatural ability to manipulate others (right words, right time). All she did on Captain Martin was supercharge this ability to get a few paragraphs of explanation for WHY the words were right so that she can accurately assess how well it worked. She could easily develop several supernatural social manipulation powers. She can easily enhance ANY body of soldiers the same way she enhanced the Harmuph militia, gaining their loyalty by aiding them in battle.

Just because this is the only opportunity now known to Lilly to obtain a loyal army, doesn't mean this is the only opportunity to obtain a loyal army.

She could literally just run away to a foreign country and start fresh, possibly among people with fewer preconceived notions about "owning her" or about what she can and cannot do. Remember, the thread title is "It's a Girl's World," not "It's a Girl's Small Town And Immediate Environs."

Ah, yeah. You're right. It's hard to wrap my mind around infinity sometimes. Lilly can just write out every permutation of plan to exist, circumventing the need to actually do the thinking bit.
Writing out every possible permutation of the plan doesn't help you if you don't know which permutation is best. It just gives that poor abused/misused meta-power a larger stack of indistinguishable papers to sort through.

To quote Roger Zelazny, "It means nothing to be able to transport yourself anywhere if you are a fool in all places." Having a billion billion plans, without the ability to tell which one is going to work, is useless.

Also learning politics often is less difficult than you'd think, especially if we get the right ethos and are in an actual city. The most important bits is to just talk to right people at the right times. Which we actually should be able to do fairly well.
After all, "talk to the right people at the right times" is one of Lilly's literal superpowers, and one of the first ones she learned.

Waters will certainly be hunting us. With < 5 party members, will have no chance in an actual battle, so our only recourse is not to be found.
Waters has other things to do, and his jurisdiction is finite. We could just, y'know, get away farther and faster than he can realistically pursue in a short amount of time? Or where if he does pursue us, he has to act carefully to avoid antagonizing peers?

Come to think of it, his Ethos revolves heavily on being able to manipulate territory he thinks of as 'his.' Forcing him to chase us 50-100 miles in a random direction, to a place he doesn't rule, might actually weaken him significantly.

But {Contention Prognosticator} told us that one would kill the other, so eventually we will engage in battle. So, effectively, going on the run means we will be forced to engage Waters with our own personal power, rather than with an army on our back.

Our personal power is increasing... but at a great enough rate to battle his entire party?

Come to think of it, this may be the strongest argument that we cannot avoid this fight, so must gain as many allies as possible.
If I recall correctly, [Contention Prognosticator] told us "one shall kill the other." Firstly, there was nothing about it being a personal face-to-face killing; we could set in motion a sequence of events where Waters dies offscreen or dies as part of an overall disaster. Secondly, "distant future" is a very wiggly term. It may well be that the best course of action for us is to evade him for a year, then come back overwhelmingly powerful and splatter him all over the landscape with a casual exertion of effort.

When your greatest underlying power is nigh-unlimited growth potential combined with prodigious growth rate, hastening to confront enemies because you will inevitably have to fight them sooner or later can be a losing game. You may be better off with the "later" option.

Distant future is within 5.5 years, as that is the planned duration of the quest.
I don't think you actually know that.

Are we likely to have another chance to gain 200 people's loyalty in 5.5 years + Captain Martin's sure loyalty to the end?
Bet on it. Lilly has superpowers that include "say the exact right words to someone at the exact right time," "exactly impersonate a desired set of behaviors," and assorted other manipulate-other abilities. She is still developing those powers rapidly.

You are sorely underestimating the range of possible options she may have in the future for recruitment. The world is not limited to Harmuph and its immediate environs.
 
I don't think it's Inverted, just what a combat focused Essence build actually looks like. Bloomlings apparently level up much faster than normal, and she's a Bloomling that's been adventuring for a couple years now, with what's apparently a very scary combat build.
With how it's described it's almost assuredly a Flow based Ethos I think. To me at least, Marigold sounds like someone that was formed around an Inverted Ethos, as that'd be consistent with her form of morality. I'm gonna speculate that she got her Ethos from having her virginity stolen in a rape, which manifested in an Inverted Flow Ethos and her going around punishing would-be reoffenders. It also ties into the blood powers. If I were to take a crack at formulating her Ethos it would probably be something like this: (CW: implied sexual violence)
[Blood-tainted Innocence]: (Flow) (Inverted)
They say it only hurts a little the first time. This was not true for you when you were held down and struggled, crying out for someone to rescue you. But you survived and vowed that yours would not be the last blood that was spilled. Many of those around you harbor the same dark impulses that violated you that night, now it's your turn to reciprocate. Inflame their passions, mingle your blood with theirs and seize control over them. Fuel the fires of your revenge with their life force. It will hurt a lot, but you at least will be quicker than he was.
 
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Yeah. Marigold may or may not be running on an Inverted Ethos, but any combat-focused Essence Ethos is likely to include elements of body horror sooner or later.

@Alectai Something else that may have been overlooked, in all this:

One of Lilly/Waters will kill the other in every near-term future. This is an extremely all-encompassing prediction, which itself is telling.
Note the difference between "not-distant" and "near." Further note that the prognostication requires some interpretation. There are surely futures in which, while only one of the set {Lilly, Waters} is alive, neither has personally killed the other.

I mean, as an obvious example, Lilly could plausibly get killed by Valerie while Waters is far away. In theory Lilly resurrects in the forest from that, but that's not a perfect defense. I don't think Valerie would stop coming after us, and Aboleth seems to have enough preternatural knowledge to send her in after us.

Or Marigold could kill Waters. I think she'd enjoy that. She seems practically specced for it.

...

Anyway, I don't think [Conflict Prognosticator] is telling us that we're fated to survive all other attacks until Waters comes after us, in other words. This isn't a "till Birnam Wood come to Dunsinane" prophecy.

But with that corollary borne in mind, I think we need to be careful about how we interpret "distant future." There are places very far away from here, where it would be at best difficult for Waters to track us down immediately. We might encounter Waters a year from now under circumstances very different from the ones we now face, and still entirely fulfill the prognostication.

In other words, laying low is not an option. We go big (recruit an army strong enough to match him) or go back to our burnt-down home.
Running away with our family and returning to our burnt-down home when we're ready to seek revenge is totally an option in my book.
 
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I believe I've figured out the geographical situation. Narisell is not Lord Waters' dominion, Narisell is the country Lilly lives in. Parisi is to the west of Narisell, to the north is Loilsvan, and to the east is Scobar, which is the militarized kingdom that acts as a buffer against the goblinoid kingdom. So when Kaymie says to escape Narisell she means the country and not the area where Lord Waters control, "these and anything past the southern divide."

Edit: Other Things
On Sarah/Liatris
Why Sarah and not Liatris is that her mother was not allowed to name her at birth, her father did, thus Liatris' false/other name of Sarah.

On Evie's [Effervescent Animus] Pitch
What Evie means by sisters is Bloomlings, which I guess in floriography means that Lilly's mother is also her sister. With that thought of Bloomlings being sisters in mind, Evie saying that she could technically be considered Lilly's niece leads to Ev'aclliál being born from a Bloomling somehow.
 
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@Simon_Jester: is it technically possible to recruit people anywhere? Yes. Doing so in practice is, however, another issue.

Here we have a Captain Martin that [Cleaver on Steroids] tells us will follow us to the end if we don't screw it up, a grateful guard highly sympathetic to our plight and an unambiguous villain foil. There isn't going to be a more perfect recruitment scenario; it is as if fate itself aligned toward our gravitas.

(Especially not after the PR machine starts coming after us. Right now we're a sympathetic and heroic blank slate. That's not going to last.)

We can wait and come back; then Martin will doubt our commitment, our heroism will have faded in everyone's minds, and we'll be seen as "just another inverted ethos", a la Waters' propaganda. The option will be closed.

...

Sample space has synergy with anything that allows us to do more in the allotted time... being able to do more allows us more options from which to pick the ideal.

You get anti-synergy, I presume, from the assumption that "thinking doesn't matter; Lilly just does the best thing anyway". But imagine Lilly being able to dictate a series of observations to herself in the middle of carrying out the ideal actions. She would not only be blindly flailing to victory, but also giving herself insight for the future.

(This is in addition to the possibility of just being able to get more insights from more thinking time, which is admittedly speculative.)
 
Secondly, "distant future" is a very wiggly term. It may well be that the best course of action for us is to evade him for a year, then come back overwhelmingly powerful and splatter him all over the landscape with a casual exertion of effort.

You have to watch out for the circumstances that makes the "no distant future" prediction fail. The scenario you describe is precisely one such circumstance, which means it's impossible.

Once we're so overwhelmingly powerful that Waters can't do shit to us, then we need not bother with him, or we can just throw him in jail or whatever. We're still likely to fulfill the prophecy, to be sure; but it is no longer case that in all possible futures, one kills the other. Prophecy broken.

This implies, then, a time estimate for this not-so-distant mortal battle: well before we gain overwhelming power, i.e. soon.

...

Similar reasoning rules out other optimistic scenarios. Any scenario where Lilly has the luxury of dealing with Waters at her leisure is impossible. Any scenario where we have the choice not to bother is impossible.

This, again, implies that Waters can and will find us--and very quickly at that--before we have a chance to make those futures happen.

Your optimism concerning Lilly's progression is, ironically, a negative sign; as Waters must find us before we progress that far.
 
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It said "no distant futures", which means the battle will take place in the not-so-distant future.
This is just wrong. "The possibility does not exist that at T=infinity that Lilly Silas and Sebastian Waters are both alive" does not mean "no future exists where you don't immediately fight him."
Plot Twist! I think you mean [Iteration to Perfection], your father does not have a Foundational Ethos.
That is so not a plot twist, dammit. That is the opposite of a plot twist.
Also thanks for the like 100+ reactions over the past day TheBiggerFish :)
You're welcome! I quite enjoyed reading it, and putting all the stuff out there that I liked takes a lot more work than what I put in liking it.
For a totally (and I do mean totally) unhelpful hint on how Concordance works. Bubbles and Lines. Bubbles within Bubbles, bubbles around bubbles, Lines between Bubbles. Growing bubbles, shrinking bubbles. Subsuming bubbles. Not actually bubbles. There must be bubbles. Make Lines. Follow Lines. Leave the lines! Come back quickly though.
Fracture and Tension are not bubbles or lines, but talk about them.
i will make this a helpful hint so help me
Fracture obviously interacts with Concordance lines. Tension is - surface tension, with the bubbles, most likely.
...Could also be something something Riemannian Geometer something.
I think it's something like probability spaces themselves, and/or something something multiverse theory something.
Interlude 2.1 - - - - Don't trust a smile.
aaaaah?

I don't actually know how to react to Marigold. For all that she's really fucking spooky, she's...not really a bad person per se? I think we could work with her. She doesn't hurt the innocent.

...Valerie having ethical drift Abby needs to 'correct' for is...really strange and possibly quite fucked up.
 
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@TheBiggerFish You have to assume that {Contention Prognosticator} is not completely trolling us, or else our power is just worthless.

For meta-reasons, the mortal battle will take place within 5.5 years (before the quest's planned end). My above post further narrows the timeline to "before we become powerful enough that we don't have to bother with him", which combined with the impossibility of eluding him implies "he can track us and will come after us very soon" (before we have a chance to amass personal power and take the choice out of his hands).
 
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@TheBiggerFish You have to assume that {Contention Prognosticator} is not completely trolling us, or else our power is just worthless.

For meta-reasons, the mortal battle will take place within 5.5 years (before the quest's planned end). My above post further narrows the timeline to "before we become powerful enough that we don't have to bother with him", which combined with the impossibility of eluding him implies "he can track us and will come after us very soon", before we have a chance to amass personal power and take the choice out of his hands.
You simultaneously give Contention Prognosticator too little and too much power. We could absolutely cause his death by doing a meteoric ascent to a level he cannot hurt us at, and then him bashing himself to his death on our walls because he's an asshole who'd do that out of pure entitlement. The battle can occur anywhen and anywhere and anyhow, it's just going to end up with one or the other Very Dead.
 
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She needs some sisterly love.
Hmm, a succubus vampire who would kill for her sister?
I like her.
 
I suppose that's a bypass I didn't think of: even if we ignore Waters, he offs himself in rage...

But it doesn't work (or at least, cannot remotely be counted on): this is an optimistic future where we have a choice of how to deal with Waters. We can lock him in an asylum, prevent him from self-harm; if there is any possible contrary future, the prophecy is invalidated.

The prophecy, again, is very all-encompassing, and serious thought must be given to "does my scenario invalidate it".

(To be fair, your scenario at least has some plausibility not to do so... but the plausibility of our ascending enough to enrage him yet not quite enough to have a moonshot at preventing his suicide is... rather thin.)
 
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I suppose that's a bypass I didn't think of: even if we ignore Waters, he offs himself in rage...

But it doesn't work (or at least, cannot remotely be counted on): this is an optimistic future where we have a choice of how to deal with Waters. We can lock him in an asylum, prevent him from self-harm; if there is any possible contrary future, the prophecy is invalidated.

The prophecy, again, is very all-encompassing, and serious thought must be given to "does my scenario invalidate it".
I'm pretty sure Contention Prognosticator is not that powerful, actually, as to have reviewed every single possible future for marginal ones like that. Besides, we're literally able to break prophecies by word of our own Cleaver of Fate Ethos.
 
Cleaver of Fortune stacks the deck no matter what we decided on.
So making a new army on another Kingdom? Yes.
Escaping with the people we care about and power-leveling? Yes.
Training up the militia to combat waters in a month? Yes.

Personally I'm in favour of option 3. Since it protects our tree from both waters and the dungeon.
Our dream Ethos may go offline when the tree has been felled. It's also a link to curse us with, like the bear did - even if now we have protection in the form of Primordial Chassis.


PS on distant family trying to reunite. We could form essence links with them. Both the aunt from father's side, just as the the aunt from mother's side... or the sister from Momoth. :p

May help distant family members. Inserted of the usual curses trough links, Lilly sends boons! 💙
 
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Some weeks later, in a covered wagon...

Yolun: Lilly, are you sure this is wise? The boys have been asking "Are we there yet?", and I'm starting to wonder the same.
Lilly: The Ladder said that we would encounter a powerful ally if we headed west, and to not head north under any circumstances. I'm afraid I'm playing it by ear a bit.
Yolun: ...Better some ethereal advice than none, I suppose. Hmm, looks like there's some girl traveling our way. Perhaps we can ask her for directions. *Ahem* Hail and well met, traveler. How are you this day?
Mary: ...You're Lilly, aren't you?
Myah: *deadpan* Oh, that's just swell.
Mary: Oh, good, I was wondering if I was going to be walking forever to find you! But you actually came to meet me...with the rest of your family, but I can work with that.
Lilly: ...It seems you have the advantage on me. Who are you, exactly?
Mary: Oh, where are my manners? I'm Marigold, pleasure to meet you. Mother said that we had to start bringing the family together to help you, little sister, but she didn't quite say why.
Lilly: *glances at Sarah* ...Little sister?
Mary: Oh, no, no, I mean our uniting Mother. Did your birth mother ever tell you how she picked your name?
Lilly: ...And you're Marigold. I'm starting to see the picture. Look, I...I don't know exactly why you're looking for me, but there's some very powerful men that are coming after us, and I'm trying to get my family to safety. Can you help me?
Mary: ...Are they brutes that would strike a girl like you?
Lilly: ...Yes, and do far worse-
Mary: Well, then, today's your lucky day. I'm not the best at social graces, but once it comes to violence, things get much simpler. I don't know if your father can fight as well, but...oh. Oh, my.
Lilly: ...Why are you looking at me like that?
Mary: *excitedly* Did you know that your body produces blood faster than you can bleed it out? Oh, we're going to do such great things together!
 
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I'm pretty sure Contention Prognosticator is not that powerful, actually, as to have reviewed every single possible future for marginal ones like that. Besides, we're literally able to break prophecies by word of our own Cleaver of Fate Ethos.
A more-meta perspective is, perhaps, revealing: Slyvena is not so powerful to have reviewed every possible future. Who knows what shit the questers would pull even in the not-so-distant future? For all the QM knows, we could write in [] [AC] Across the Silent Sea for real

So, in order for Slyvena to have made such a prophecy, Waters has to be coming after us, using a reliable tracking method, and soon--forcing the outcome.
 
The tooltip for the Cleaver says that Lilly can defy fate, she can make a timeline where the prophesy is false long as she had enough levels in Cleaver and a will powerful enough.
The point of the Ethos is that her fate is her own to decide and make. She works outside predictions.

A more-meta perspective is, perhaps, revealing: Slyvena is not so powerful to have reviewed every possible future. Who knows what shit the questers would pull even in the not-so-distant future? For all the QM knows, we could write in [] [AC] Across the Silent Sea for real

So, in order for Slyvena to have made such a prophecy, Waters has to be coming after us, using a reliable tracking method, and soon--forcing the outcome.
PS. The most reliable is the the tree we slept under.
It has also been said that the trees spawn point can be boobietrapped. Use tree to curse us from afar, wait us to trip up.
Or they kill tree right away, weakening Lilly.
 
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I'm not even proposing ganking Waters right away (though doing so before he returns to raise his armies may be militarily sound) so much as gaining allies to deter him before the possibility is closed to us (because, by prophecy estimates, we won't get another chance).

I'm not sure what you mean by "cutting both ways": if the QM makes a prophecy, then it implies some reliable method of carrying it through (because the QM isn't omniscient); in this case, for Waters to get to us.

...

Why even have a prophecy (and especially one so specific as to rule out all other possible futures) if it can be easily defied? Why not just say "Waters will start gunning for you" (which can be easily guaranteed)?

For now, I think it's safest to assume the prophecy can't be defied; if it is possible, it's bound to be very, very difficult.

PS. The most reliable is the the tree we slept under.
It has also been said that the trees spawn point can be boobietrapped. Use tree to curse us from afar, wait is to trip up. Or they kill tree right away, weakening Lilly.
Hmm...

If the tree can be used as a vector of attack (which admittedly is still speculative) then this might indeed avoid the possibility of Waters having a reliable tracker.

But even in this case as well, it's better to recruit an army to our side, to protect the tree (I believe you've said as much in previous post).

There is still the counter-possibility of us intentionally destroying Petal then replanting her in the middle of some other anonymous forest, which would invalidate the prophecy... but I suppose that's safely ruled out.

Good observation!
 
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The QM is not omniscient. Therefore, we can surprise them.

Actually, I think we should probably just ask.

@Slyvena is this prophecy backed by QM fiat, or just in-setting weight?
 
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The QM is not omniscient. Therefore, we can surprise them.

Actually, I think we should probably just ask.

@Slyvena is this prophecy backed by QM fiat, or just in-setting weight?
I believe you've misunderstood. I'm not saying the prophecy is backed by QM fiat (in fact, my meta-argument assumes the opposite).

Given that QMs can't predict their questers, if a prophecy is made, there must be a reliable means for it to come true (for Waters to either track us or indirectly attack us via the tree).

(On the off-chance that it is backed by QM fiat, the scenario reverts to my earlier analysis, in which we also don't have a lot of time.)
 
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