Subversion might have made a good person out of him yet.

Subversion or Bedrock (since Bedrock seems to come with a morality filter). It would also fulfill the prophecy by replacing him with a new person.

But the problem, in this case, is more fundamental: we can't match his forces in order to Subvert/Bedrock Waters, unless we get the army. And, given that an engagement with his forces is certain to happen...
 
"The fault is not in our stars, but in ourselves."

Lilly and Waters aren't set to kill each other "because fate said so." They're set to kill each other because Waters wants absolute submission from Lilly (and will never let it go as long as he breathes), and Lilly is never going to let someone like him control her or hurt her family (or die trying). It's not about a "preordained showdown" 1 month, 3 months, 1 year from now, but simply a calculation of "people following their nature to its conclusion." [Cleaver of Fortune] can influence a "coin flip" for a person's choices, not overwrite their personality. It's not Concordance that binds them together, it's "just them".
 
It doesn't really matter why they're set to kill each other; only that there are no possible futures where it doesn't happen (and what can be deduced from that).

...

Remember to ask... why so specific a prophecy, rather than just "Waters is gunning for you"? From both a meta- and in-character perspective, it strongly implies that Waters has the ability to attack us, and soon (via tracker or tree).
 
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Marigold - Character Power Profile
Sample Space lasts at most a couple seconds but couldn't that time be extended by entering dreamspace?
For this exact example: Your perception of time within the Dreamspace is fluid, but actual time passed is not. You won't think of ideas any faster or slower in there, it's not a Flow Power, it struggles to have any sort of meaningful memetic effect.
{Sample Space} is one sub-power, underneath {Imposition of Intent}, within a Mythic Ethos. Its scope is narrowed through multiple filters of specificity.
Now, if only you had a power specifically geared toward answering questions which you could use to find the inherent limits of that specificity... oh well.

(On the balls-to-the-wall insane side, Lilly is now capable of trying to move sub-powers over between Ethea which would change how they function, but I'm going to go ahead and recommend you don't try. True Song's breakage almost became something called the {Shatterheart Malignancy} back at the start of the Alpha attack, these things have a propensity to go six hundred and sixty six different sorts of wrong.)

"It's a Girl's World," not "It's a Girl's Small Town And Immediate Environs."
In fact, you guys will be getting a slightly more zoomed out map in 2.3

So, in order for Slyvena to have made such a prophecy, Waters has to be coming after us, using a reliable tracking method, and soon--forcing the outcome.
You guys could ask {The Ladder} once it recovers. It takes a bit of adjustment time to throttle down to such a specific question, but it could be done.

There is still the possibility of us intentionally destroying Petal then replanting her in the middle of some other anonymous forest... but I suppose that's easily ruled out.
Lilly is nowhere close to being capable of proactively killing an intelligent thinking being, much less one she'd have a front row seat to the pain of. I can see it happening in self-defence, but you are going to have to do a lot of growing up through the school of hard-knocks to reach the point where you can be that brutally pragmatic.

@Slyvena is this prophecy backed by QM fiat, or just in-setting weight?
Since this is a sticking point for people, I'll throw you a bone.
{Contention Prognosticator}'s prediction is utterly immutable for Lilly as she is now. New Powers could open up potential futures that did not exist previously. But not just any power, it would need to be something dynamic and far reaching, allowing for entirely new types of action that were not in any way conceivable before. Something that redefined the playing field in a way that specifically countered the reasons the fight is currently unavoidable.
This limitation is because {Contention Prognosticator} cannot easily see outside this material plane, so Integration Vectors are an outside-context program for it.
Distant future means somewhere between a month to a few years. It could be within the month, it could be that he'd volunteer for a hunter-killer team tracking you down further along the timeline, it could be many things.

Subversion might have made a good person out of him yet.
You'd have to get very good at Subversion to build an actual personality. That is a whole different ballpark to just promoting a mental trait you already possessed to a more dominate position (which is what you did).

I'm gonna speculate that she got her Ethos from having {NSFW}
Secret Challenge Met
Marigold received her Ethos on her thirteen birthday, which was also her wedding night. (Almost 4 years ago). By law, it was all above board; she disagrees.
You get her Ethos description and names of her powers/subpowers.

Honourary mention to @Alectai for basically name-dropping her primary power, impressive even though I hadn't set that as a challenge.



[We all Drown Together] - The Sanguine Ocean (Apotheotic): (Deific)/(Legend)/(Flow)/(Oath) | Unique
113th Generation Bloomling | Flower: Red Rose-Marigold {Transposition}

Your plea has been heard child, rescue is at hand and an exchange is offered. We are all unified beneath the deep maroon ocean. The endless river coursing through all life that is and ever was. Plunge into that endlessly repeating link and draw upon the pulsating rhythmic strength swimming inside all creature's veins long before any Ethos ever touches their skin. There is a cost that must be paid, but it is fair and true. To draw from what is spilt, you will join them in their sacrifice. Drag them into your embrace and breathe from their lungs anew. Accept, Marigold, and the beatings will never hurt again. A small cost now, then no more pain; only the sweet throbbing heat. Blood's Gift, for Blood's Price.

Marigold <> Lvl 15:
Lvl0:
{Hemokinesis} Tier 31 "Life's nectar ran in every direction inside her, and them."
- Flow Override
- Origin Seek
- Vicious Memory
- Wed and Dead
Lvl 6: {Concept-Lock} Tier 20 "There is nothing new under the sun. All we are and could be is inside each other already."
- Borrowed with Pain
- Gifted in Grief
Lvl 8: {Reborn in her Currents} Tier 13 "The second birth is a poor imitation of the first. That which delivered us to our mortal homes."
- Lifeblood
- 'Family' Tree
Lvl 11: {Red Fountain} Tier 8 "Why seek the external? The yolk gushes forth."
- Tideswell


Marigold's powers scale quite well against more powerful opponents.

I'm off to bed, see ya'll tomorrow.
 
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It doesn't really matter why they're set to kill each other; only that there are no possible futures where it doesn't happen (and what can be deduced from that).
That he's a servant or child to power who opposes [[The Infinite branching petals of Conviction, The Bloom which touches all, Her glory transcends, Her beauty unrivalled: Flower]]... or whoever is our patreon.
 
Oh, huh, an Apotheotic Ethos that isn't full of Zalgo. Interesting!

...And that explains why she has a myth!
 
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Oh wow, I hadn't considered she might have a Unique Ethos. It makes sense, considering she's a Bloomling.
Also: we'll have to see more of her, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lilly could find an arrangement of sorts with Marigold, at least while Waters is still alive.
 
Okay, so the prophecy could be invalidated, but only through a new power
not just any power, it would need to be something dynamic and far reaching, allowing for entirely new types of action that were not in any way conceivable before. Something that redefined the playing field in a way that specifically countered the reasons the fight is currently unavoidable.

Whatever the case, we can't expect--except in the most moonshot sense--to avoid the prophecy, which means Waters has some reliable means to force the encounter even if we scurry across the Silent Sea. Whether that's due to QM fiat or Waters' overwhelming tracking/tree-killing advantages is irrelevant to our conclusions:

Get the damn army, or be forced to fight Waters without one.
 
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There's Waters, there's Marigold (Who wants to help us but is apparently a fucking horrorterror fully realized Bloomling hemokinetic who Flower is in direct contact with and uses as an Agent), and now Valerie is coming and she's apparently just gotten an advance that lets her apply her Words to herself. Which is Subversion on steroids apparently. (Wait, does this mean Abby is a Demon then?)

Im pretty sure this isn't new. It's probably an old application of her powers. The second part is how she acted in the first interlude after all, and Lilly's subversion is more powerful on herself.

What's new is that the amount of time she has to keep telling herself to be ok with what she did is shortening and shortening.
 
...Okay. Okay. Let's break this down.
  • It has been 4 years since Marigold has gotten her Ethos, and she is level 15. This matches up with the perception that people generally have their level match their age. Lilly's able to beat the curve as she is able to get the "easy" levels of multiple Ethos at the same time.
  • Mathew said that most Ethos get a new skill about every 5 levels on average, which matches up with what we're seeing here.
  • She's got 4 different sources for her power, none of which is...the bottommost one on the list, which shows that not all Apothetic Ethos are inherently unstable. Which is...good, for multiple reasons.
  • Her Tiers seem extremely high, but it's unclear whether this is Apothetic BS, or just what happens to anyone who invests in a single focus. Of course, we've found that our skill Tiers don't exceed their Grasp, which still means that she has gotten VERY good at understanding how her powers work.
In short, I think that it is a "Legal" character sheet for Ethos-world, just a very combat-optimized one (maybe one of the later sourcebooks, but hey, if the publisher says it's okay...). Lilly's character sheet, on the other hand, actively breaks the rules, allowing her to gain abilities that are "off-brand" from dreaming about nature. When they meet up and explain their powers, I'm going to imagine each is going to call the other "hax."
 
An army is not the only way to deal with Sebastian Waters, dammit!
Then propose a method for out-escalating his force solo, given that he has the means to reliably track us or attack the tree.

(Both possibilities point to a very early confrontation, before we have the chance to level up; as does the nature of the prophecy.)

Otherwise, this is just wishful thinking, which we can't afford in this very unforgiving world.
 
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She's got 4 different sources for her power, none of which is...the bottommost one on the list, which shows that not all Apothetic Ethos are inherently unstable. Which is...good, for multiple reasons.

That depends heavily on your definition of stable. Because nothing I saw made Marigold look stable. I get your point, she doesn't seem to have, well, that, but still. Stable is just not the word I'd use for her.
 
...Okay. Okay. Let's break this down.
  • It has been 4 years since Marigold has gotten her Ethos, and she is level 15. This matches up with the perception that people generally have their level match their age. Lilly's able to beat the curve as she is able to get the "easy" levels of multiple Ethos at the same time.
  • Mathew said that most Ethos get a new skill about every 5 levels on average, which matches up with what we're seeing here.
  • She's got 4 different sources for her power, none of which is...the bottommost one on the list, which shows that not all Apothetic Ethos are inherently unstable. Which is...good, for multiple reasons.
  • Her Tiers seem extremely high, but it's unclear whether this is Apothetic BS, or just what happens to anyone who invests in a single focus. Of course, we've found that our skill Tiers don't exceed their Grasp, which still means that she has gotten VERY good at understanding how her powers work.
In short, I think that it is a "Legal" character sheet for Ethos-world, just a very combat-optimized one (maybe one of the later sourcebooks, but hey, if the publisher says it's okay...). Lilly's character sheet, on the other hand, actively breaks the rules, allowing her to gain abilities that are "off-brand" from dreaming about nature. When they meet up and explain their powers, I'm going to imagine each is going to call the other "hax."
Marigold has been busy, considering that she has her own nickname and legend apparently. So it makes sense to me that she has such high tiers for her powers if she's been powerleveling.

That depends heavily on your definition of stable. Because nothing I saw made Marigold look stable. I get your point, she doesn't seem to have, well, that, but still. Stable is just not the word I'd use for her.
I think stable fits in the sense of "is not at risk of personality fracture and turning into some kind of runaway monster", which is what Form Fracture seemed to be headed for. She's clearly very... focused in who she's looking to punish, but not so far as to murder those who wouldn't violate her. Like, even with an Ethos as extreme as hers, there'd be more monstrous ways she could've turned out I think.
 
So, gain another ethos for being sneaky, level it enough to counteract all their high-level sensors (probably, but not certainly, excepting Kaymie), and do it faster than he can start tracking us.

In a world that has to be aware of the possibility, and guard its higher-ups very thoroughly (and, for all we know, have easy counters for poisons, such as healing).

If we'd previously specced towards intrigue, it might be viable. With Waters gunning for us now, and able to track us (and likely our runaway family as well), and presently zero intrigue skills, I don't think we have enough time. (Remember, our previous gains were a serious anomaly, made by taking on an inordinate amount of risk.)

I don't think it's worth exploring when we definitely have army force multiplier skills, an army sympathetic to us, and a Captain loyal to the end if we don't screw it up.

Accept Marigold, and the beatings will never hurt again.
Typo, or was Marigold not her original name/identity?
 
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Marigold has been busy, considering that she has her own nickname and legend apparently. So it makes sense to me that she has such high tiers for her powers if she's been powerleveling.


I think stable fits in the sense of "is not at risk of personality fracture and turning into some kind of runaway monster", which is what Form Fracture seemed to be headed for. She's clearly very... focused in who she's looking to punish, but not so far as to murder those who wouldn't violate her. Like, even with an Ethos as extreme as hers, there'd be more monstrous ways she could've turned out I think.

I'm like still not sure that fits at all. Like it hasn't necessarily fully warped her the same way Valerie warps herself, but the ethos really really wants her to kill and incentivizes her to do so with the heat cold thing so...

I would still be extremely extremely careful about picking any apotheotic ethos.
 
Oh fuck oh fuck.

THREE FUCKING APOCALYPSES INBOUND

There's Waters, there's Marigold (Who wants to help us but is apparently a fucking horrorterror fully realized Bloomling hemokinetic who Flower is in direct contact with and uses as an Agent), and now Valerie is coming and she's apparently just gotten an advance that lets her apply her Words to herself. Which is Subversion on steroids apparently. (Wait, does this mean Abby is a Demon then?)

Christ, this is going to be a disaster. I just wanted a little downtime! Instead we've got two Transcendent conspiracies coming our way and Waters doing machinations.

The only good news is that none of these are friends, all of them are powerful, and their goals are most definitely not in alignment. This gives us a little room to maneuver--though I suspect Marigold is going to be perfectly willing to butcher Lilly's family if it's a choice between that and risking Lilly getting hurt. Flower wants Lilly in her camp--I wonder if Aboleth is from Colossi in comparison and this is the big transcendent war dropping down here by proxy?

Yeah, I am very glad we stuck our neck out to pull Martin into the Lillyspiracy because we're going to need every mote of support we can gather. Provided he doesn't kill us outright, his cover would give us a great deal of time to prepare to navigate this incoming clusterfuck.

(Also, how frustrating it is that despite being running on an Apotheotic/Ascendent Ethos, that Valerie still seems to be levelling incredibly fast? That's not even remotely fair)
Having someone strong to protect Lilly might actually be exactly what we need. Our goal is staying alive, after all.
 
I would still be extremely extremely careful about picking any apotheotic ethos.

Oh, I agree that most Inverted or Apothetic Ethos would not make for a sustainably happy Lilly. I'm just glad that our new ally is...consistent in her mindset, rather than having to brainwash herself every half day to keep from going mad.

Mary: "I'm not a psychopath, Lilly, I am a high-functioning sociopath who processes your continued well-being as an axiom, rather than a conditional."
Evie: "Oh, hey, me too!"
 
Marigold is pretty cool; in this crapsack world there will be no shortage of enemy targets. Together, Lilly and Marigold might have a shot against Waters' party (but Marigold would have to be the MVP in that encounter; Lilly is mainly support without her {Collective Communion} force multiplier). On second thought, I really don't want to rely on Waters not having a counter; it's best to just fuel Marigold and gank Waters with all available soldiers

It's unclear whether Marigold is just being ironic in her internal monologue, or if her mind actually has been twisted to see her needs as the "kindness" of strangers "supporting" her.

Whatever the case, I think Marigold sees attraction to her as "heat":
"Geez Andrew, some of us like a pretty face," some random added, his heat was a low ember.
Which implies the remaining ranger wasn't attracted to women--making him the sole "innocent".

Unfortunately, this could be a serious problem for Lilly's allies, as many of them do feel attraction (which can't exactly be controlled, unless there's an ethos for that). At minimum, Marigold will have to restrain herself when it comes to them, and even then, accepting her as ally would be a continual PR issue.

Alternative hypothesis: "heat" refers strictly to bloodlust, rather than lust. It could also be both, in which case we have the advantages/disadvantages of both.

...

From the latest, it's apparent that Flower has, at best, blue-and-orange morality which is a step towards "from my perspective, the Flower is evil!"

I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but Valarie seems now able to order inanimate objects around; which is totally awesome; we should suggest using them as computers.

It takes a bit of adjustment time to throttle down to such a specific question, but it could be done.

@Edifier This answers vaguely a question about our ability to ask the Ladder questions. I think it's safe to assume it can't be relied in combat (or for the "30 seconds until discovered" example from earlier) leaving an opening for Sample Space planning (though I still need to process the latest Word of QM on that).

On the other hand, our being able to ask about Waters' ability to force the confrontation will be a Flower-send, shedding light on our remaining options.

I'd managed to annoy them. [which leads to...?] Andrew got up and moved to stand behind where I was sitting, running a hand through my hair. "You're a very beautiful young woman."

Other rangers also began to stand up, with strange looks in their eyes.
There's the possibility that Marigold's social manipulation is not completely mundane (even though she supposedly doesn't use the exotic methods, citing morality).
 
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I'm like still not sure that fits at all. Like it hasn't necessarily fully warped her the same way Valerie warps herself, but the ethos really really wants her to kill and incentivizes her to do so with the heat cold thing so...
I would still be extremely extremely careful about picking any apotheotic ethos.
Fwiw we don't know for sure that killing is necessary for her to gain heat, this bit doesn't sound like murder is a necessary part of the process to me at least:
Not that I could just walk up to people out here and tell them what my Ethos did and if I could use it on them. Only the suicidally reckless just go for that sort of thing.

Sometimes I could, people just went for it straight up. But normally I had to put in the time working them around to it, get them comfortable and not suspecting I was some random wildness psycho.
To me that sounds more like blood being spilled in general is what heats her up, not like it has to end in death.
And even within her Ethos there's still boundaries she's apparently not willing to cross.
There were methods I could use to get what I needed far more reliably than this social dance I insisted on doing. But I didn't consider that sort of manipulation to be moral.
So by all means I'm not saying she's not cruel or anything, just that she's not the Zalgo-text type of monster and I think stable in how she applies her violence, which makes her a force that can be accounted for and planned around.
It's also very much instructive on how an Ethos will shape a person I think, which leads into why we should absolutely see if we can do something about Zach being slated for what's likely an Inverted Ethos. If your Ethos rewards a specific kind of behaviour and gives you the powers to deal with them in just that manner then suddenly every problem starts looking like a nail after all, so I doubt it would be good for Zach.
 
It's also very much instructive on how an Ethos will shape a person I think, which leads into why we should absolutely see if we can do something about Zach being slated for what's likely an Inverted Ethos. If your Ethos rewards a specific kind of behaviour and gives you the powers to deal with them in just that manner then suddenly every problem starts looking like a nail after all, so I doubt it would be good for Zach.

It's also a bit concerning how she just "happened" to get her Ethos pick on her 13th birthday, when the trigger for her Ethos occurred. I was originally of the mindset that the Zach's countdown was preset at birth, but not inherently significant. This data point, however, suggests that when people have their Ethos "auctioned", it actually IS tied to them having a doozy of a day that will make them more likely to pick the "special" Ethos. But we may want to do more research on this.
 
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