We're on 9 temp martial. If we do 1 Main+2 Sec, we have 10 temp martial and risk 5 temp martial. That leaves us with 5 temp martial in the absolute worst case scenario where every one of our warriors is destroyed. If you subtract 1 from 5, the number you get is indeed 4, but there is no 1 involved here.
MAIN+SEC+SEC War Parties means we risk dropping down 4 temp martial. Minus whatever war parties the Defensive policy shits out and whatever temp damage we end up taking if somebody sends a war party at the Arthwyd core provinces.
Indeed, we are on 9 temp Martial.
And if we do MAIN+SEC+SEC War Parties, we gain 1 temp martial and risk 5 temp martial. Which means we risk dropping down 4 temp martial.
I think the issue here is that you might have assumed a "to" to be somewhere it wasn't. I said we'd risk dropping 4 temp martial and clarified that I'm talking net numbers. You have agreed that MAIN+SEC+SEC means we go up 1 temp martial and risk 5, for a potential net drop of 4.
There is no disagreement, just you failing on reading comprehension.
When we re-opened relations with the Boarfolk during the Bounty of Gold update, they already knew much about the Arthwyd as a result of their contact with the Maradysh. They were also noted to be knowledgeable about the Lowlands in general back then.
When we did the expedition to the far East, the Achlanders were able to recognize us as the people who sold the Boarfolk their metal tools, implying that even the eastern reaches of the Boarlands had some level of access to Arthwyd-made goods.
Our two Centers of Trade are Greenbay and Caermyr. The former has a river connection to the latter, the latter sits at the confluence of the Lake river and the Boar river. Presumably, the Boar River(which flows past the Tordysh who were occupied by the Boarfolk at some point in the distant past) leads to Boarfolk tribes that trade with the Arthwyd and the general direction Kashkan's horde seems to have come from.
I'd rather not tempt Murphy by assuming our opponent is ignorant and assuming nothing could possibly go wrong.
That said, ending up at 5 temp martial is not the absolute worst case. The absolute worst case is the one where we also lose the temp martial from any War Parties our Defensive Policy is sending and where we take temp Martial damage from whatever war parties Kashak's Horde might be sending.
The former, which is still not the worst case, risks leaving us with 4 temp martial to spare. And I don't know how hard the latter might hit at this point, even if you want to assert that Kashak must necessarily be ignorant about the shape of the Arthwyd Empire.
But yes, let us hope nobody else decides to attack us.
I wouldn't say that's, entirely, a correct statement.
Being a Charitable Haven that has never known hunger in recorded history during an Ice Age where crops are failing might also tempt the living.
