Changing Destiny (Kancolle)

Oh dear, so the British are going to get bushwhacked then?
not likely. All in all the Brits have the better ships (its specifically mentioned to be rebuild BB's vs Rebuild BB's) and the Italians have a bunch of dead weight in the form of a supply convoy that will severely limit their engagement options.
 
It was already said in the last chapter (and by me in non-chapter posts) that the Italians don't have any of the Littorio sisters available right now.
 
As for Warspite getting refit in Puget Sound... this would make how many Battleships Britain has sent to the US for repair now? That's gotta cause some sort of commotion, even during wartime.

Probably a lot less commotion than not having the dock space to repair them and letting them limp along with makeshift patchwork fixes.
 
not likely. All in all the Brits have the better ships (its specifically mentioned to be rebuild BB's vs Rebuild BB's) and the Italians have a bunch of dead weight in the form of a supply convoy that will severely limit their engagement options.

The presence of the convoy is probably the only reason the battle is happenin in the first place, since the Italian rebuilds have a four knot speed advantage and could deny battle at will otherwise. I already compared the rebuilds before but it's worth noting that Barham is the weak link of the British BBs here, due to her more limited refit. With a top speed of 22.5 knots in her after-rebuild trials and less effective fire control than her sister she's going to have trouble both firing at range and closing in.

Actually, I should probably also point out that Italian heavy cruisers are historically capable and willing to engage BBs at standard BB engagement ranges, so this may not be strictly a 'duel' (though the effectiveness of cruiser guns even against a WWI rebuild is going to be... limited).
 
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Anyone's CAs can engage battleships. But even the ridiculously powerful USN super-heavy 8"/55 shells have to close to virtually point blank ranges - 9.8km to punch through 10" of armor. QE and her sisters have 13" main belts.

The most the CAs will hope to accomplish is a mission kill by knocking out a main battery director or similar piece of equipment. Mind, this isn't knocking on their guts, just pointing out the limitations of what can be expected to be accomplished.
 
Actually, I should probably also point out that Italian heavy cruisers are historically capable and willing to engage BBs at standard BB engagement ranges, so this may not be strictly a 'duel' (though the effectiveness of cruiser guns even against a WWI rebuild is going to be... limited).

They will still be able to smash gun directors and superstructures.
 
Anyone's CAs can engage battleships. But even the ridiculously powerful USN super-heavy 8"/55 shells have to close to virtually point blank ranges - 9.8km to punch through 10" of armor. QE and her sisters have 13" main belts.

The most the CAs will hope to accomplish is a mission kill by knocking out a main battery director or similar piece of equipment. Mind, this isn't knocking on their guts, just pointing out the limitations of what can be expected to be accomplished.
What about striking the decks instead of the main belts?
 
What about striking the decks instead of the main belts?

That's admittedly a bit more plausible, but complicated. QE has three substantial decks with meaningful spacing. I'm pretty sure Italian fuzes are pretty short from what I recall, so my guess is cruiser shells would tend to detonate between decks if they penetrated, doing little substantial damage.

Plus Italians don't have the hard-on the USN has for high obliquity deck penetration, so I really don't know how that would work out.
 
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On the other hand, if the CAs are Trentos instead of Zara's, well, Trentos have torpedoes. They're no Japanese CAs, but they can hurt a battleship.
 
That's admittedly a bit more plausible, but complicated. QE has three substantial decks with meaningful spacing. I'm pretty sure Italian fuzes are pretty short from what I recall, so my guess is cruiser shells would tend to detonate between decks if they penetrated, doing little substantial damage.

Plus Italians don't have the hard-on the
USN has for high obliquity deck penetration, so I really don't know how that would work out.

The idea of a heavy cruiser closing the range to where they could do significant damage to a battleship, even a WWI rebuild like Barham, is pretty suicidal. Even if the battleship's main guns are on local director control, thinking of 12 to 15 inch guns shooting at a target within 10,000 yards with only heavy cruiser armor, makes me think of a replay of Matapan's night action.
 
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Well directors and the like are unarmored, so the stuff a CA can hope to damage can be destroyed by HE rounds anyhow, so no need to close. Plus the battleship is going to be shooting at other battleships as a priority. But any allied CAs and CLs will be happy to rumble with the Italian cruisers.
 
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The idea of a heavy cruiser closing the range to where they could do significant damage to a battleship, even a WWI rebuild like Barham, is pretty suicidal. Even if the battleship's main guns are on local director control, thinking of 12 to 15 inch guns shooting at a target within 10,000 yards with only heavy cruiser armor, makes me think of a replay of Matapan's night action.
Even small-caliber, low-penetration rounds can do plenty. Look at what Laffey did to Hiei.

EDIT: also, the 203mm/53 caliber guns the Zaras used had a theoretical 34km range. Of course they aren't gonna hit anything at that range, but they probably aren't gonna sit at 10km, either.
 
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Hiei was... poorly protected and ate a lot of 5" shells. Not saying HE can't be unpleasant even for a decently protected BB like QE, but let's not use Hiei as a typical example of HE damage to a battleship.

And no, 10km is how close they've got to get to get through battleship armor plate. Mind, that's based off the penetration curve of the USN 8"/55 firing super-heavy AP shells. So if anything, the Italians have to get closer. But again, this is to establish boundaries of what cruisers can expect to accomplish.
 
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The main factor for such an approach is how desperate is the enemy commander to stop enemy BB's? Get him in a do or die situation like the battle for the Convoy HX-84 for the british and I assure you that the range is going to get even shorter than 10,000 meters
 
What the Italian cruisers will most likely do is bully the British battleships screening elements. Hurt as many of the Brit cruisers as much as possible to open holes to allow the Italian destroyers and torpedo boats to close to where their torpedos will have the greatest chance at hitting the British battleships.

The Andrea Doria, Caio Duilio and the Cesare are there to keep the QE's collective interest until the British go "Dude where's my escorts?"
 
Anyone's CAs can engage battleships. But even the ridiculously powerful USN super-heavy 8"/55 shells have to close to virtually point blank ranges - 9.8km to punch through 10" of armor. QE and her sisters have 13" main belts.

Well yes - they certainly wouldn't count on penetrating the main belt. That's why I said any damage would be limited, but-

They will still be able to smash gun directors and superstructures.

This. Remember that Cesare herself was temporarily put out of the fight by a lucky hit to her smokestack. Hardly the most armored element of a ship.

The idea of a heavy cruiser closing the range to where they could do significant damage to a battleship, even a WWI rebuild like Barham, is pretty suicidal. Even if the battleship's main guns are on local director control, thinking of 12 to 15 inch guns shooting at a target within 10,000 yards with only heavy cruiser armor, makes me think of a replay of Matapan's night action.

They would never get that close. The insanity of closing to point blank range of a battleship with a cruiser aside, Italian doctrine was radically different from the British one in that it called for methodical fire at an ideal distance of 20k yards and no closer - at least until getting a few significant hits in - as opposed to British tactics which focused on charging in and prioritize rate of fire at the expense of accuracy.

Reportedly, neither side was impressed by the other's gunnery in fleet actions.

EDIT: also, the 203mm/53 caliber guns the Zaras used had a theoretical 34km range. Of course they aren't gonna hit anything at that range, but they probably aren't gonna sit at 10km, either.

I don't think even the fire directors on the Zaras can get a firing solution at that distance, but Italian optical fire control was quite good (for reference, the optical fire control on Bismark was basically an improved German version of one of the first Italian BB FC sets - and the later Italian sets were marked improvements on the first version) and the Italian heavy cruisers OTL scored hits as far as 21-24k yards, while a light cruiser, Montecuccoli, scored the longest ranged 6" gun hit of the war at 23-26k yards. That's what I mean by being able to engage at battleship ranges.

What the Italian cruisers will most likely do is bully the British battleships screening elements. Hurt as many of the Brit cruisers as much as possible to open holes to allow the Italian destroyers and torpedo boats to close to where their torpedos will have the greatest chance at hitting the British battleships.

The Andrea Doria, Caio Duilio and the Cesare are there to keep the QE's collective interest until the British go "Dude where's my escorts?"

This is probably going to be the most probable plan of action for the Regia Marina (though it's unlikely we'll see torpedo boats taking part in a fleet action), yes. Though with the Third Cruiser Division being their usual selves, I expect them to take potshot at the BBs if they get the opportunity.

I am under no illusion this is going to be easy for the Italians, though. As I said, I foresee feels from both sides.

@Skywalker_T-65 Incidentally, what's the ITL status of cruiser Montecuccoli? The 'most haunted ship of the fleet' seems like a good subject for an omake. Armored Cruiser San Giorgio, too.
 
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Hiei was... poorly protected and ate a lot of 5" shells. Not saying HE can't be unpleasant even for a decently protected BB like QE, but let's not use Hiei as a typical example of HE damage to a battleship.
Armor doesn't even matter here because it was hitting her superstructure, not her belt.
 
Damage to the smokestack would actually affect the engines in some manner, I think it has to do with thermal efficiency but I am not sure.

This is what happened with Cesare, yes. The hit caused smoke to temporarily enter the engine room, rendering it almost inoperable for a while despite the lack of serious damage.
 
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I'm hoping for an appearance of either 5th Destroyer Flotilla or the "Scrap Iron" Flotilla. I think they'd give the Italians a real fight!
 
Armor doesn't even matter here because it was hitting her superstructure, not her belt.

My point is the enormous quantity of five-inch shells she ate is what caused the degree of damage she suffered, and that sheer number of shell hits should not be expected at any kind of extended range, particularly given the severe dispersion the excessively close mounting of Italian 203s in Zara and Trento induced.

Can the Italian CAs force a retreat? Sure. Is it likely?

No. The RN cruisers are hardly going to sit around and let the Italians shoot them up, and the RN has a pretty decent GFCS for a cruiser fight, and if the CAs aim at the British BBs, the RN cruisers are just going to blow the RM cruisers out of the water.

Here we have a failure to distinguish me disputing possibilities from me disputing likely outcomes. Please pay closer attention to what I'm saying instead of jumping down my throat because I'm pointing out the limitations of what the RM can accomplish.
 
My point is the enormous quantity of five-inch shells she ate is what caused the degree of damage she suffered, and that sheer number of shell hits should not be expected at any kind of extended range, particularly given the severe dispersion the excessively close mounting of Italian 203s in Zara and Trento induced.
I mean, the key thing about what Laffey did was incapacitate the command staff. Everything else was icing.
Can the Italian CAs force a retreat? Sure. Is it likely?

No. The RN cruisers are hardly going to sit around and let the Italians shoot them up, and the RN has a pretty decent GFCS for a cruiser fight, and if the CAs aim at the British BBs, the RN cruisers are just going to blow the RM cruisers out of the water.

Here we have a failure to distinguish me disputing possibilities from me disputing likely outcomes. Please pay closer attention to what I'm saying instead of jumping down my throat because I'm pointing out the limitations of what the RM can accomplish.
I can't find many sources on RN GFCS(and would love if you could point some my way), but the Italian cruisers were much more heavily armored than their RN counterparts, especially in deck armor.
The one source I could find says that the Italian rangefinders were superior, but I'm not sure as to its credibility. Wikipedia also says that the Zaras outranged Warspite and Malaya, but its source is a book that I don't have, so I can't verify it.

Fundamentally, I think you're going to have a hard time arguing that the RM cruisers weren't favored in a long-range gun duel vs. RN cruisers. From what I can tell, they had every advantage, from guns to rangefinders to armor.
 
I can't find many sources on RN GFCS(and would love if you could point some my way), but the Italian cruisers were much more heavily armored than their RN counterparts, especially in deck armor.

Exceptionally so, Italian Heavy Cruisers were exceptionally well protected, the only class of Heavy Cruiser that had better protection was the American Des Monies class.

Fundamentally, I think you're going to have a hard time arguing that the RM cruisers weren't favored in a long-range gun duel vs. RN cruisers. From what I can tell, they had every advantage, from guns to rangefinders to armor.

Depends on the shell quality, if the Italians got good shells then they can and will achieve straddles consistently at 30k+ yards, if not then its a crap shoot.
 
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