I think you mean "Assuming the shells actually hit the island", because if they're not getting EXTREMELY close to bombard, well, Wake is skeletal enough in its island shape that shooting into the bay or falling short can be from random swaying of the ship with the waves!
Unless they stand end-on to the relatively straight portions so their targeting ellipse is over as much land as possible.
If your gunners can't hit a stationary target larger than a bleeding battleship then you got a major problem, because it's clear they don't know how to use all those rangefinders. Cruisers with 5in-8in guns can hit Wake from 8-15 miles out without any trouble. Let alone the battleships if IJN decides to utilize the Kongo sisters for the job.
The letter's from Hacke, as she insisted on calling herself, were the only recourse he had. Oster felt no need to tell him anything. Paranoia was strong in the German Resistance.
I suppose I can hardly complain. There are many things I have not told them.
As much as he loathed the Soviet Union, and what they had done to his family, he still regretted what he had done. He had comprehensively turned Bismarck and Blücher alike, against the Soviets. He didn't want to think how Blücher would react to seeing her sister in Russian service.
And I can see why he regrets what his biases have instilled in those two. Spirits of warships with a very strong loyalty to him, who that if they were fully summoned would have an array of 15in, 8in. and other size weapons that they would loose upon the Soviets with little hesitation. As for Blücher's reaction to her sister's fate? Nigh-incoherent Teutonic Rage, is my guess.
The girl was. An impossible girl, wearing a very heavily customized version of an Italian naval uniform. She was young, perhaps barely into her teens. A girl who shouldn't be near the military. Unless...unless she were not human at all. Or, at least, not a normal girl.
The very thought of someone as Evil as Hitler or Himmler corrupting the mind of a innocent Destroyer like Turbine with their hateful, wrong, Ideology fills me with great rage and unparalleled fear .
If your gunners can't hit a stationary target larger than a bleeding battleship then you got a major problem. Cruisers with 5in-8in guns can hit Wake from 8-15 miles out without any trouble. Let alone the battleships if IJN decides to utilize the Kongo sisters for the job.
Let me rephrase this:
If you're using guns to bombard an airstrip from the side, you had better as hell hope you're bringing capital ship guns. Because the hit probability for the effective targeting ellipse (i.e. craters which will affect the airstrip) and the airstrip do not intersect as well as one might like and you might run low on shells. Bismarck for example carried 105 reloads per gun, and I don't think the IJN will load its battleships with less than something like 30% AP, so that's about 70 salvos assuming a similar allotment per gun. Counting ranging half-salvos and the fact that the ship has to manoeuvre and reacquire the target after each zig-zag, I'm thinking 50 salvos more or less on target looks pretty reasonable (if the American submarines are deployed as they SHOULD BE), 65 if the American subs are AWOL.
Airstrips only need to be uncratered for a relatively short distance in a straight line for fighters to scramble off them. In other words, you can't just aim at the approximate middle of the airstrip if it's long enough for medium bombers, as half of it is probably enough for fighters!
If the weather is not calm, then it grows dramatically less likely that you'll inflict critical damage beyond the ability of the bulldozer-happy Americans to patch up.
Now, I'm going to assume that 14-inch has considerably less crater radius than 16-inch. And that it's less accurate due to lack of radar fire control and rather less sophisticated fire control computers.
Give this image, the actual rate of hitting the airstrip at very long ranges is... well, it's basically a certainty given the number of shells fired, but it is highly likely the Americans can still kludge something together to fly off of given how bad IJN bombardment doctrine tended to be.
Cruisers are just a case of "Drivers, man your dozers!" so the main issue is the Kongos. And those are good for a pack of submarines lurking around Wake.
You are welcome to take the image, and draw a line vertically for the airstrip, and then try one horizontally. I guarantee you that on average a vertical line will be interrupted more times. It's simply a function of how gunnery works. Over or under is easier to miss than side to side.
just to point out the difference between the driveby's of Henderson field and Wake is that The IJN could provided fighter cover for the former thanks to Rabaul. Any attack on Wake requires your ships spend a lot of time without anything over head, and given that Catalinas can carry torpedoes (never mind any proper bombers wake might have now) and the shit tier Japanese AAA...
just to point out the difference between the driveby's of Henderson field and Wake is that The IJN could provided fighter cover for the former thanks to Rabaul. Any attack on Wake requires your ships spend a lot of time without anything over head, and given that Catalinas can carry torpedoes (never mind any proper bombers wake might have now) and the shit tier Japanese AAA...
A Cat slinging a couple of torpedoes isn't going to be flying at anything over 100 mph at best, and will have the manuerverability of a barge being pushed up the Mississippi. Add to the fact that they've got to go even slower and drop down to 50 feet to successfully drop their torpedoes, even shit tier AAA is going to inflict serious losses on the attackers. The Devastators were actually better than the Cats at anti-ship strikes with torpedoes. That's frightening to think about.
just to point out the difference between the driveby's of Henderson field and Wake is that The IJN could provided fighter cover for the former thanks to Rabaul. Any attack on Wake requires your ships spend a lot of time without anything over head, and given that Catalinas can carry torpedoes (never mind any proper bombers wake might have now) and the shit tier Japanese AAA...
Er, no, they couldn't? Why do you think they did the damn thing at night? Guadalcanal was at the hairy outer edge of Zero combat radius, and the Zeroes didn't really have the fuel to stick around and provide actual top cover.
Er, no, they couldn't? Why do you think they did the damn thing at night? Guadalcanal was at the hairy outer edge of Zero combat radius, and the Zeroes didn't really have the fuel to stick around and provide actual top cover.
Bismarck for example carried 105 reloads per gun, and I don't think the IJN will load its battleships with less than something like 30% AP, so that's about 70 salvos assuming a similar allotment per gun.
Thing is, even with just 5-10% accuracy, the combined number of shells expended from several cruisers (and battleships) will quickly ad up, and that easily translated to over a hundred hits on the airstrip. And that is from the primary battery alone. And Type 3 shells is very useful to frack up any soft skinned targets.
All those misses? If they're not hitting the airstrip or water, some of them will definitely hit other stuff like fuel tanks, water tanks, ammo dumps, barracks or maybe, the bulldozers themselves. If they can hit Henderson Field, they can surely hit Wake airstrip.
Also, I do believe warships of every major navies in this era were equipped with gyro stabilized director, and the Pacific is usually calm unlike the North Atlantic.
I should note that the Type 3 shell was intended for anti-aircraft use, and thus was almost certainly time-fuzed instead of impact fuzed like most HE shells. Which, of course, reduces the accuracy needed, since they can be timed to airburst over the airfield, an infinitely easier task when dealing with something stationary instead of moving aircraft.
As for ammo loadouts, I decided to check up on what Kongo and Haruna fired off at Guadalcanal - and they only had about 300 Type 3 IS and Type 0 HE shells between them, out of a maximum capacity of 1440. The remainder were either standard armor-piercing shells or modified 12" subcaliber rounds. I don't expect a Wake bombardment to be much different, so a max of 200 HE/IS shells out of a load of 720 per ship.
Also, I do believe warships of every major navies in this era were equipped with gyro stabilized director, and the Pacific is usually calm unlike the North Atlantic.
A Cat slinging a couple of torpedoes isn't going to be flying at anything over 100 mph at best, and will have the manuerverability of a barge being pushed up the Mississippi. Add to the fact that they've got to go even slower and drop down to 50 feet to successfully drop their torpedoes, even shit tier AAA is going to inflict serious losses on the attackers. The Devastators were actually better than the Cats at anti-ship strikes with torpedoes. That's frightening to think about.
Attacks just after nightfall while at sea, perhaps? The IJN will be coming in from the west, and if they are backlit by nautical twilight, they can't see the Catalinas coming in easily and a squadron can drop enough torpedoes that one will probably work.
Note that I'm assuming a Catalina strike flown from Wake has an easier time landing without torpedoes at night than taking off with torpedoes at night.
Then the Japanese are screwed. they aren't going to send more than one Kongo to this piddly island, and of those 200 shells I would be shocked if even 100 managed to hit the island itself instead of either being short or over, unless they're aiming along the long axes in which case they MIGHT manage 120 hits (since the Kongo will presumably be actually under way and thus don't have the end-on solution for the whole time of firing.
Even relatively gentle swells are still a big problem if they are large in wavelength and you don't have stabilized guns and directors. The boat rocking slightly is enough to throw the firing solution off completely...
This, the Japanese will just sit outside US bombers range and then make a mad dash towards Wake for a night time drive by.
Thing is, even with just 5-10% accuracy, the combined number of shells expended from several cruisers (and battleships) will quickly ad up, and that easily translated to over a hundred hits on the airstrip. And that is from the primary battery alone. And Type 3 shells is very useful to frack up any soft skinned targets.
All those misses? If they're not hitting the airstrip or water, some of them will definitely hit other stuff like fuel tanks, water tanks, ammo dumps, barracks or maybe, the bulldozers themselves. If they can hit Henderson Field, they can surely hit Wake airstrip.
Also, I do believe warships of every major navies in this era were equipped with gyro stabilized director, and the Pacific is usually calm unlike the North Atlantic.
There's one minor problem with that plan. The fleet will need to be with 400 miles when they start their dash in order to get to Wake at dawn, closer if you want to give them a little breathing room in case they don't score the needed damage. That's about 400 miles short of where air power can start hurting you and 800miles short of where scouts can start tracking you.
I find it funny that of the various powers in the war, the Italians are the second ones to make the breakthrough of getting a full-on shipgirl. Fate gotta throw 'em a bone somehow.
The Italians actually had decent troops and were actually let down by their equipment, their Rifles and Tanks were rather pathetic. Hell, at Kasserine Pass, the first Axis forces to breakthrough the American Lines weren't the Germans but the elite of the Italian Military who, Rommel actually said were equal to his own German Troops.
The one thing that the Italians actually excelled at was making fighters and their pilots were good too, most of the Italian fighters could turn with a Spitfire and were devilishly fast, plus they sported rather decent armament depending on the model. Many allied pilots greatly respected the Italian Fighters and considered them superior to stuff like the Bf-109.
The Italian Navy, at least on paper, wasn't bad either but in practice, yeah....
The one thing that the Italians actually excelled at was making fighters and their pilots were good too, most of the Italian fighters could turn with a Spitfire and were devilishly fast, plus they sported rather decent armament depending on the model. Many allied pilots greatly respected the Italian Fighters and considered them superior to stuff like the Bf-109.
Wait, we're still talking about Italy right? The same nation that had much shorter training program than their main opponent? The same nation that thought splurging on armament was adding an additional two 7.7mm machineguns to the two 12.7mm machinegun standard up until 1943? The same nation that's most produced WWII fighter was a biplane? The same nation that struggled to put out aircraft because of material shortages, poor engine production, and inefficient industry among other factors?
Sure, Italy had good fighters. Italy had good pilots. Italy had fighters with decent armament. They did not excel at any of these things, and their production was anemic at best.
There's one minor problem with that plan. The fleet will need to be with 400 miles when they start their dash in order to get to Wake at dawn, closer if you want to give them a little breathing room in case they don't score the needed damage. That's about 400 miles short of where air power can start hurting you and 800miles short of where scouts can start tracking you.
To piggyback on this, while the Japanese could not provide top cover over Ironbottom Sound from Rabaul, they most definitely could interfere with US planes scouting The Slot to provide early warning of IJN ship movements. Now on the one hand, Wake has a lot of open water around it, so there is no obvious angle of approach. On the other hand, simple fuel constraints do limit that sharply, since the bombardment force would have to come from Japan or Truk or maybe the Gilberts or Marianas, especially since Japan is not oversupplied with oilers and naval fuel, and battleships are thirsty for Bunker-C (which is why the Kongos were used at Guadalcanal in part because they were more fuel-efficient than the Nagatos and Yamatos).
Attacks just after nightfall while at sea, perhaps? The IJN will be coming in from the west, and if they are backlit by nautical twilight, they can't see the Catalinas coming in easily and a squadron can drop enough torpedoes that one will probably work.
Note that I'm assuming a Catalina strike flown from Wake has an easier time landing without torpedoes at night than taking off with torpedoes at night.
Just to point out a few things you may have neglected to consider:
Night fighting has been a central part of the IJN doctrine since the '20s, so they'd been training for years to deal with twilight conditions
At this time, the IJN has superior optics for dealing with low light situations
A Catalina carrying 2 Mk 13s is at it's max payload weight.
A Catalina is not very maneuverable with no payload. At max payload, maneuverability will be less than even that of a fully loaded TBD Devastator
To successfully drop the Mk 13s, the Cats have got to drop to 50 feet in altitude and slow to less than 75 knots and drop them at less than 1,000 yards away
At that range, speed and altitude, even the crappy 25mm light AA guns will be well within their effective range, much less the 127mm heavy AA guns
Given all this, if you're depending on a twilight strike by a formation of Catalinas carrying Mk 13s to cripple an IJN task force, unless they get incredibly lucky, you're bound to be sadly disappointed.
Then the Japanese are screwed. they aren't going to send more than one Kongo to this piddly island, and of those 200 shells I would be shocked if even 100 managed to hit the island itself instead of either being short or over, unless they're aiming along the long axes in which case they MIGHT manage 120 hits (since the Kongo will presumably be actually under way and thus don't have the end-on solution for the whole time of firing.
Why wouldn't they send two? They have two - Hiei and Kirishima were riding shotgun with the Pearl Harbor force and now don't need to do that for the foreseeable future. And, y'know, standard Japanese strategic myopia.
Counterpoint: AA gunnery against a target flying straight and level is hard in full daylight. During twilight and nighttime, I don't care how good your night optics are, it goes from hard to very hard.
Why wouldn't they send two? They have two - Hiei and Kirishima were riding shotgun with the Pearl Harbor force and now don't need to do that for the foreseeable future. And, y'know, standard Japanese strategic myopia.
Fine, send two. More targets for the submarines. If not for Thompson being outed as a time traveller and thus BuOrd getting smote for their torpedo fail for sure in the near future, this would be a good chance to show that "Of the first 100 torpedoes fired correctly by the wolfpack, 0 actually managed to function as advertised." or similar.
Considering that before the faults were corrected, the Mark 14 averaged a 1/7 success rate, fifteen out of a hundred fish would be expected to function correctly.
Which is bad enough that it requires no exaggeration.
Considering that before the faults were corrected, the Mark 14 averaged a 1/7 success rate, fifteen out of a hundred fish would be expected to function correctly.
Which is bad enough that it requires no exaggeration.
You're right. Statistically, that is the expected number of working fish.
However, I do point out that those 15 that would have worked may well... miss... a violently maneuvering battlecruiser.
Meanwhile, half the sub squadron has been sunk by circular runs ("well, the warhead works sometimes...") and all the other torpedoes went to God knows where.
Speaking of which, one of the Kongos involved would like to lodge a complaint about being forced to walk around bow-legged for weeks due to having a dud torpedo jammed up her stern and another jammed up one of the sewage exit pipes all the way back to Japan. The shipgirl has also acquired a mild phobia of having submarines behind her.
Speaking of which, one of the Kongos involved would like to lodge a complaint about being forced to walk around bow-legged for weeks due to having a dud torpedo jammed up her stern and another jammed up one of the sewage exit pipes all the way back to Japan. The shipgirl has also acquired a mild phobia of having submarines behind her.
I'm just coming up with improbable hits that would otherwise have done critical damage and this is supposed to be a worse version of POW's "unseated shaft" if it had gone off. The best I can come up with is "Are you SURE you want to try running your inner two propeller shafts when there's a dud-for-now torpedo jammed right in between them after ricocheting off your rudder (SOMEHOW)?"
And then I translated that to shipgirl anatomy. This would be equivalent on a human to having a bullet ricochet off your coccyx, and become stuck just under it just before it would have pierced the abdominal cavity. If you expect that to, if not crippling, not result in very awkward shuffling, well I got a bridge to Terebithia to sell you.
And then I decided if I was going that far I might as well have some unfortunate sailors notice some of the toilets are malfunctioning. Well, best hope no one's trying to fix the toilets while the drydock workers are removing that torpedo, because if it goes off...
There's of course a lot of dents and scratches on the armour belt from torpedoes crushing their detonators against the belt and failing to go off. Those are gonna be fun to explain to HQ...
...But I'm pretty sure those are going to get glossed over by the IJN members who actually see shipgirls compared to the jokes about torpedoes up the stern. Simply because they are a bunch of young men and prone to lewd jokes as a result of that (It would appear I am being sexist...).
If you want me to go up any more levels of crazy, we can have a dud torpedo porpoise out of the water and then end up lodged between the barbettes of the Number 1 and 2 turrets. But I don't think that sounds sane unless it's happening in a North Atlantic storm. And even then it would probably result in superstitions erupting among the crew about divine intervention due to sheer improbability. The Mark 13 wasn't THAT bad.
Also, at this point in time, in addition to the terrible torpedo problems the USN submarine fleet was scattered pretty widely between the Atlantic, Asian Fleet/Philippines, Australia, and other stations, and the USN had not broken Japanese naval codes yet.
So chances are that there would not be submarines on station picketing Wake this early in the war versus scouting Japanese islands in the Central/South Pacific and reacting to IJN advances in the DEI and elsewhere.
