Wait, isn't the main result for people attempting to due this a bad case of DEAD, especially with younger officers REALLY REALLY happy to kill their superior officers (Hirohito and Tojo qualify) if they don't fulfill some arbitrary standard?
It depends. On the one hand, even the Japanese are not
quite stupid enough to start killing senior officers in a major war with the UK and USA just because they don't like Admiral so-and-so talking to General such-and-such. On the other hand, any impetus for interservice cooperation will be
very teeth clenched and only if people get good information to make them realize that they literally have no other choice. Not a given at all int he 1942 Japanese military, they had a real problem with spinning setbacks as 'minor glitches' and disasters as 'minor setbacks'.
While it's possible you might have a competent IJA and competent IJN commander work reasonably well together, that's not a given at all.
Let me put it this way: to write this and have the Japanese be a credible threat requires me to paper over a metric ton of flaws in their doctrine. If I had even half of the Kido Butai ready to go after Pearl, that's me making the other half eat all the losses. Because the Japanese want to completely rebuild an air crew before sending the CV out.
Look at ZuiZui after the Coral Sea.
Absolutely. As it stands, thanks to the impact Thompson has had, Japan needs some kind of boost to avoid imploding earlier. Having Yamamoto manage to scrap the CV airgroup linkage doctrine is a reasonable buff, as would a modest increase in pilot training.
Besides, it won't help them much in the medium to long term anyway.
I also have to make the Zero losses at Pearl be the regular pilots when it should be a mix of them and the instructors. Because only Japan sends the instructors for their best planes into combat before they have a sizable reserve.
And even if I do that, it should still generously take over a year to rebuild the losses. That's how long it takes when Japan puts a hard cap (and a small one at that!) on how many pilots can graduate. During wartime.
During. Wartime.
Less generously, we're talking a year and a half.
So I'm having to paper over and handwave a lot as it is. I'm not going to go even further here and neuter the Allies to make an OTL result. I pride myself on research and trying to make things go as realistically as possible in here. I can't do that if I'm trying to force OTL results.
Exactly, the whole point of the story is one man making a difference in the world of his grandparents. In order to do that he has to make a difference.
Ok, so aside from the guy who can see Turkey (Zuikaku), most of the experienced Zero pilots and instructors got mulched. If Hiryu and Soryu lose any more planes trying to remove the Wake Island air unit, does that make the IJN pull the entire Kido Butai back for a mass training and airgroup replenishment, leaving the light carriers to deal with the Southern Resource Regions? Or do they rethink their training regimen entirely and have the most senior surviving pilots of the Pearl raid train new pilots shoreside and use the rest to get full carrier loads for two to three CVs?
The smart thing would be to accelerate pilot training for replacement aircrews, consolidate airgroups and get as many CVs operational as soon as possible. Remember that Japan is on the clock with a long list of objectives to meet before the USN builds itself back up and reclaims the initiative. Yamamoto knows that very well, and this also might actually help them by curbing some of their more dubious early strategic decisions like the massive raid into the Bay of Bengal in 1942. This time around they can't exactly spare 5 CVs to bust up Ceylon in March- April 1942.
...sort of. Japan has a number of light carriers it can use. While definitely not as capable as fleet carriers, they can make things rather difficult.
And let's not forget that Japan's non-carrier air power is substantial. If Force Z strays too close to a Japanese airbase for too long (after being detected), things get dangerous. Glorious is not exactly the equal of any other fleet carrier in the Pacific, to say the least, and radar and AA is still not nearly good enough to make weathering a large air attack anything short of absolutely harrowing.
Then there are the Japanese submarines. Granted, many of them were sortied for Pearl, but it's going to be a major threat sooner or later.
With Force Z having carrier support (limited as it is) and remaining intact, it provides a strong center for ABDACOM naval forces to rally around (and hopefully better leadership).
Granted, once any two of Japan's fleet carriers are back in operation and sortied for the southwest Pacific, things get dramatically harder.
Oh I agree. My suspicion is that the Philippines are doomed as ever, and eventually Malaya and Singapore will fall just because the IJN can eventually hit that area with enough force to smash ABDA. That said, if they delay the occupation by a month or two from OTL and inflict more casualties or save more ships from the inevitable, that will pay dividends down the line. Things like the Japanese stopping at Rabaul because they don't have the troops or time to advance down the Solomons to Guadacanal, for instance.
At any rate, before I go to bed:
I apologize if I get snippy. I do get annoyed when every point I make gets ignored, though.
This said...I did exaggerate Zero losses to get the point across. What I was trying to say there, was that the vast majority of Japan's Zero stock was at Pearl. Up to and including the instructors for the things. This means that any mulching done to these planes and pilots (which are heavier than OTL, but not disastrously bad) are going to make the Zero a rarer sight than OTL.
That was the point. And that people need to stop bullying poor Hurricane-chan. It's not her fault that the Spitfire is more glamorous.
That's what I have been saying. This time around Force Z may last longer and do more good before getting sunk or driven off along with the rest of ABDACOM. It's probably not enough to save Singapore, the British position is just too weak and the USN is too far away, but it's possible for instance this time around the Brits don't lose Burma because Japanese advances into CBI are delayed and the troops, ships, and planes sent there IOTL are needed elsewhere.
To be fair, some of us are half expecting OTL simply because the RN and USN went full pants on head in their screwups... at least with ABDACOM and that isn't easy to fix in a short period of time. The equipment wasn't faulted then, and based on the rest of the thread isn't faulted now.
Exactly. My personal suspicion is that ABDACOM will still go under just because there's no real reinforcements to send (the Brits are overstretched as/is and the USA is too far away for meaningful help to arrive). That said, they will take longer to fall thanks to better leadership, since Tom Phillips will probably get appointed fleet commander as opposed to the OTL Admiral Doorman, so language won't be as much of a problem. Also with a slightly stronger ABDACOM they can delay the Japanese longer, and possibly inflict more casualties, neither of which Japan can afford to take in the medium to long term. Once that happens, Singapore is doomed just because again, the Brits don't have enough troops free to hold it.
