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Changing Destiny (Kancolle)

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PAGDTenno said:
Remember that USN fleet boats had ~10 torpedo tubes, and about one in ten Mark 14s worked. Which, while abysmal, means there's actually a decent chance of one of them doing something if it hits.

If.
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True, but it's a 6 forward, four backward combination. So your first barrage would be 60 torps IF (big 'if') you managed to put together 10 subs, a big wolfpack, which was against USN normal policy regarding deployment of subs. Good luck fighting the red tape needed for that.

Taking into account that the Mark 14 is not the most stealthy of torpedoes, leaving a very noticeable trail, and the unavoidable premature detonations that would set off the alarm on the Japanese fleet, your chances of hitting something useful drop to basically zero. Having fleet carriers on sight and sinking or damaging a destroyer or a light cruiser is not a succesful attack.

And I'm not taking into account the also non-zero chance of a torpedo going full circle and hitting the sub that launched it.

EDIT: I was doing a general check on the available classes of subs on Dec, 7th, and I got this interesting bit of info:
Six Tambors were in Hawaiian waters or the Central Pacific on 7 December 1941, with Tautog at Pearl Harbor during the attack. The remainder of the class was in the continental United States, recently commissioned or on trials. The bulk of the available submarines in the Pacific (not including any Tambors) had been forward deployed to the Philippines in October 1941.
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Six Tambors do sound like a useful wolfpack. I can see a creative admiral with foreknowledge ordering the five Tambors to engage in a mock wolfpack exercise to "check the possibility of US subs using the German tactic that's been so successful", and adding Tautog to the "exercise" when she reaches Pearl on Dec, 5th. There is a chance that Tautog earns her "Terrible T" nickname even before hostilities started.

Unfortunately, the subs can only engage after the carriers have launched their planes, as that is a hostile action they can reply to, but not pre-emptively attack the Japanese fleet.
 
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The S-class boats (the short ranged ones) have working torpedoes and if I'm not mistaken several were based out of Pearl.
 
Darth Thanatos said:
True, but it's a 6 forward, four backward combination. So your first barrage would be 60 torps IF (big 'if') you managed to put together 10 subs, a big wolfpack, which was against USN normal policy regarding deployment of subs. Good luck fighting the red tape needed for that.

Taking into account that the Mark 14 is not the most stealthy of torpedoes, leaving a very noticeable trail, and the unavoidable premature detonations that would set off the alarm on the Japanese fleet, your chances of hitting something useful drop to basically zero. Having fleet carriers on sight and sinking or damaging a destroyer or a light cruiser is not a succesful attack.

And I'm not taking into account the also non-zero chance of a torpedo going full circle and hitting the sub that launched it.

EDIT: I was doing a general check on the available classes of subs on Dec, 7th, and I got this interesting bit of info:


Six Tambors do sound like a useful wolfpack. I can see a creative admiral with foreknowledge ordering the five Tambors to engage in a mock wolfpack exercise to "check the possibility of US subs using the German tactic that's been so successful", and adding Tautog to the "exercise" when she reaches Pearl on Dec, 5th. There is a chance that Tautog earns her "Terrible T" nickname even before hostilities started.

Unfortunately, the subs can only engage after the carriers have launched their planes, as that is a hostile action they can reply to, but not pre-emptively attack the Japanese fleet.
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Actually, their value might be less in attacking the carriers and more in spotting them. If a picket line can be set up NE of Oahu, it's very possible that the Kido Butai would be spotted on December 6th and alarm would be transmitted. Getting coded American radio communications before the strike would potentially change a few minds in the fleet, plus give Pearl warning. The trick would be to get buy-in from the sub commander at Pearl to send his boats out on a weekend, although the existence of shipgirls might help with that.

That said, one thing to consider is that we already have a lot of butterflies in the air here, although mostly in the Atlantic with Hood surviving and the Kriegsmarine doing quite a bit better than historically. It's very possible that the attack on Pearl comes on a different date than December 7th, which might have some serious consequences.
 
SisterJeanne said:
It's very possible that the attack on Pearl comes on a different date than December 7th, which might have some serious consequences.
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Well... Possible and plausible are two different things. The IJN high command had very good reasons for scheduling the Attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7th, and none of them had to do with throwing darts at a calendar and seeing what day it landed on.

One of the reasons, which isn't going to change no matter what, is that December 7 is a Sunday, meaning that a lot of the ships' officers are going to be ashore. And I don't see the revelation of the existence of shipgirls/ship spirits to be particularly likely to change the fundamental diplomatic situation that led to the Attack on Pearl.

Now, one of the things that could plausibly happen is that Enterprise doesn't run into the squall that forced her to slow down in OTL, resulting in her being present during the Attack on Pearl, and possibly destroyed. I don't see this as terribly likely, particularly given that Enterprise is aware of the importance of not being in Pearl on the morning of December 7. She's going to look for any excuse to slow down, and come in behind schedule.

Darth Thanatos said:
Taking into account that the Mark 14 is not the most stealthy of torpedoes, leaving a very noticeable trail, and the unavoidable premature detonations that would set off the alarm on the Japanese fleet, your chances of hitting something useful drop to basically zero. Having fleet carriers on sight and sinking or damaging a destroyer or a light cruiser is not a succesful attack.
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Bubble trails aren't as noticeable as armchair admirals like to pretend they are, and ships that aren't expecting to need to make sudden maneuvers are unlikely to be able to effect enough of a course change to dodge a torpedo. Yes, any premature detonations will be noticed, but by the time a premature detonation happens, you have at most thirty seconds to dodge. And that's if the premature detonations are from torpedoes aimed at other ships (assuming they run straight, no I'm not forgetting the circular run problem).

I'm not arguing that a sub is terribly likely to have any great effect, but it's not guaranteed to be completely useless like you appear to be arguing.

(Total runtime for a Mark 14 is 173 seconds on the high speed setting, at maximum range.)
 
SisterJeanne said:
That said, one thing to consider is that we already have a lot of butterflies in the air here, although mostly in the Atlantic with Hood surviving and the Kriegsmarine doing quite a bit better than historically. It's very possible that the attack on Pearl comes on a different date than December 7th, which might have some serious consequences.
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True. It's up to the author to decide how much deviation there is between the story timeline and the OTL on Dec, 7th.

But the US can only affect the attack date through political means. If all the political decisions on the US part prior to Dec. 7th, remain the same, like the embargo, Japan will react in the same way and within the same timeframe.

Thompson doesn't have any political push, much less to insert butterflies into foreign relations with an increasingly hostile power. Even if he manages to convince FDR that he is not a loon, and that shipgirls do exist, that doesn't mean that he would swallow the "I come from the future" pill and make changes to US foreign policy. My guess is that December 7th is still the "date to live on infamy". The butterflies would be only in how prepared will be PACFLT for the incoming threat. And most of the NAV brass are convinced that the most likely target will be the Phillippines, for entirely overwhelming reasons.

Similarly, weather conditions are unlikely to change by human actions, so the Japanese fleet travel times will not change. Enterprise, for example, will be hit by the same storm she encountered, but depending on how desperate is Enterprise to assist, which I assume will be "a lot", she might try to brave the storm and make good speed. She will not reach Pearl on time, definitely, but her planes might. So they could be launched beyond their range, because they can land in friendly territory after the attack. Or whatever it's left of it, so they don't need to go back to Enterprise.
 
Darth Thanatos said:
True. It's up to the author to decide how much deviation there is between the story timeline and the OTL on Dec, 7th.

But the US can only affect the attack date through political means. If all the political decisions on the US part prior to Dec. 7th, remain the same, like the embargo, Japan will react in the same way and within the same timeframe.

Thompson doesn't have any political push, much less to insert butterflies into foreign relations with an increasingly hostile power. Even if he manages to convince FDR that he is not a loon, and that shipgirls do exist, that doesn't mean that he would swallow the "I come from the future" pill and make changes to US foreign policy. My guess is that December 7th is still the "date to live on infamy". The butterflies would be only in how prepared will be PACFLT for the incoming threat. And most of the NAV brass are convinced that the most likely target will be the Phillippines, for entirely overwhelming reasons.

Similarly, weather conditions are unlikely to change by human actions, so the Japanese fleet travel times will not change. Enterprise, for example, will be hit by the same storm she encountered, but depending on how desperate is Enterprise to assist, which I assume will be "a lot", she might try to brave the storm and make good speed. She will not reach Pearl on time, definitely, but her planes might. So they could be launched beyond their range, because they can land in friendly territory after the attack. Or whatever it's left of it, so they don't need to go back to Enterprise.
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Okay, first off. Enterprise didn't have to slow down for her own sake, she had to slow down for the sake of her escorting destroyers. She's not going to put lives at risk for something that she can't change.

Her planes were present in OTL. The only thing that might change is that they might be Wildcats instead of SBDs. Not sure if that would make much of a difference, but points for trying?
 
PAGDTenno said:
Okay, first off. Enterprise didn't have to slow down for her own sake, she had to slow down for the sake of her escorting destroyers. She's not going to put lives at risk for something that she can't change.

Her planes were present in OTL. The only thing that might change is that they might be Wildcats instead of SBDs. Not sure if that would make much of a difference, but points for trying?
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Okay. I had no idea of what Enterprisse did. In any case, her knowing what's going on might mean she used all her wings, fighters or not, loaded with fuel tanks if needed, and no bombs or torpedoes. Ready for a full air superiority challenge. And of course, the planes will be in the air before the Japanese start their bombing runs.

I made a fast check on Big-E's wiki page. This is what it says it happened:
Enterprise was at sea on the morning of 7 December 1941 and received a radio message from Pearl Harbor, reporting that the base was under attack. That evening, Enterprise, screened by six of her Grumman F4F Wildcat fighters, put into Pearl Harbor for fuel and supplies. The aircraft were fired on by anti-aircraft defenses, and one pilot radioed in, reporting that his aircraft was an American aircraft.[4] She sailed early the next morning to patrol against possible additional attacks in the Hawaiian Islands. Although the group encountered no surface ships, Enterprise aircraft sank Japanese submarine I-70 at 23°45′N 155°35′W on 10 December 1941.
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So, no, her planes were not present during the attack. It doesn't help either that she didn't have her full complement of planes after delivering Marine Fighter Squadron 211 (VMF-211) to Wake Island. I'm guessing that that delivery mission did also happen in the story, as you don't simply disregard your orders, but I also guess that in her return trip, any planes remaining onboard would be ready to launch, with an air superiority outfit and extended range fuel tanks. And if Enterprise had any say on the subject, they'd be in the air and on their way to Pearl before the attack.
 
To quote the wiki page for the Attack on Pearl Harbor:

The air portion of the attack began at 7:48 a.m. Hawaiian Time (3:18 a.m. December 8 Japanese Standard Time, as kept by ships of the Kido Butai), with the attack on Kaneohe. A total of 353 Japanese planes in two waves reached Oahu. Slow, vulnerable torpedo bombers led the first wave, exploiting the first moments of surprise to attack the most important ships present (the battleships), while dive bombers attacked U.S. air bases across Oahu, starting with Hickam Field, the largest, and Wheeler Field, the main U.S. Army Air Forces fighter base. The 171 planes in the second wave attacked the Army Air Forces' Bellows Field near Kaneohe on the windward side of the island, and Ford Island. The only aerial opposition came from a handful of P-36 Hawks, P-40 Warhawks, and some SBD Dauntless dive bombers from the carrier Enterprise.
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So yes, some of Enterprise's planes were present. Battle 360: Enterprise also refers to this, specifying it as her 6th Scout Bomber squadron.

Darth Thanatos said:
Okay. I had no idea of what Enterprisse did. In any case, her knowing what's going on might mean she used all her wings, fighters or not, loaded with fuel tanks if needed, and no bombs or torpedoes. Ready for a full air superiority challenge. And of course, the planes will be in the air before the Japanese start their bombing runs.
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Darth Thanatos said:
So, no, her planes were not present during the attack. It doesn't help either that she didn't have her full complement of planes after delivering Marine Fighter Squadron 211 (VMF-211) to Wake Island. I'm guessing that that delivery mission did also happen in the story, as you don't simply disregard your orders, but I also guess that in her return trip, any planes remaining onboard would be ready to launch, with an air superiority outfit and extended range fuel tanks. And if Enterprise had any say on the subject, they'd be in the air and on their way to Pearl before the attack.
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How's she going to justify it? She can justify sending Wildcats instead of SBD Dauntlesses on the patrol that happened to be in the area during the attack because she "thinks they could use the air/patrol time", but she's going to have a much harder time justifying having her entire available fighter complement fueled, hot, and ready to go. She could maybe have a second VF ready, depending on what she's got onboard, and suggest an "unscheduled air defense drill", or something along those lines, but that's no guarantee. Remember, even if by December 7, her entire crew can see her, she's not going to have the authority that Wild Bull and her captain have. She can't order her fighters to scramble.
 
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PAGDTenno said:
Remember, even if by December 7, her entire crew can see her, she's not going to have the authority that Wild Bull and her captain have. She can't order her fighters to scramble
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and her sailor is going to argue with what
this is their ship ordering/asking them to do something, the only one with more authority then her is Halsey and he would know that something is up and not question it until after they launch everything
 
Darth Thanatos said:
Six Tambors do sound like a useful wolfpack. I can see a creative admiral with foreknowledge ordering the five Tambors to engage in a mock wolfpack exercise to "check the possibility of US subs using the German tactic that's been so successful", and adding Tautog to the "exercise" when she reaches Pearl on Dec, 5th. There is a chance that Tautog earns her "Terrible T" nickname even before hostilities started.

Unfortunately, the subs can only engage after the carriers have launched their planes, as that is a hostile action they can reply to, but not pre-emptively attack the Japanese fleet.
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SisterJeanne said:
Actually, their value might be less in attacking the carriers and more in spotting them. If a picket line can be set up NE of Oahu, it's very possible that the Kido Butai would be spotted on December 6th and alarm would be transmitted. Getting coded American radio communications before the strike would potentially change a few minds in the fleet, plus give Pearl warning. The trick would be to get buy-in from the sub commander at Pearl to send his boats out on a weekend, although the existence of shipgirls might help with that.
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PAGDTenno said:
Bubble trails aren't as noticeable as armchair admirals like to pretend they are, and ships that aren't expecting to need to make sudden maneuvers are unlikely to be able to effect enough of a course change to dodge a torpedo. Yes, any premature detonations will be noticed, but by the time a premature detonation happens, you have at most thirty seconds to dodge. And that's if the premature detonations are from torpedoes aimed at other ships (assuming they run straight, no I'm not forgetting the circular run problem).
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The value of the subs will be dual, a picket line detecting the attacks will be quite useful for the Pearl forces to prepare a credible defense and get their planes ready to counter the first wave. And a smart sub commander can use the wind to predict where a carrier task force will be when they have to recover their airplanes and launch a really disruptive strike that will mess with the timing of the second wave something fierce even if the torpedoes miss.

Main trouble is that you can do one or the other. Sending a message to Pearl will be discovered by the japanese thanks to their attention to signal intelligence (of the 'find the origin of a radio signal rather than craking its code) and the strick radio silence that will make the sorce quite obvious so they cannot afford either a full wolfpack or an ambush after discovery since there's no way for coordination.
 
SisterJeanne said:
Actually, their value might be less in attacking the carriers and more in spotting them. If a picket line can be set up NE of Oahu, it's very possible that the Kido Butai would be spotted on December 6th and alarm would be transmitted. Getting coded American radio communications before the strike would potentially change a few minds in the fleet, plus give Pearl warning. The trick would be to get buy-in from the sub commander at Pearl to send his boats out on a weekend, although the existence of shipgirls might help with that.
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There is no way that signs of US detection of the attack would result in it being aborted. The way the op orders were written, Japan had committed to the attack, regardless of surprise, on 26 November, the day the fleet left Japan. The most that would happen is a possible change in target priorities--and even that's unlikely.
 
Z000 said:
and her sailor is going to argue with what
this is their ship ordering/asking them to do something, the only one with more authority then her is Halsey and he would know that something is up and not question it until after they launch everything
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Her sailors wouldn't question any reasonable order. Ordering her whole airwing to scramble, in time of peace (as far as they know), is going to result in delays while they go to Halsey and her captain. Which will lead to Halsey and her captain wondering why the hell their ship is ordering a major evolution for no discernable reason. Remember, Enterprise is about 200 miles from Pearl at this point. Her planes, at their full 331 mph speed (which is going to go through gas at an absolutely insane rate) will take 36 minutes to reach Pearl once they get in the air. Also recall that the Attack on Pearl lasted 90 minutes from initial detection to finish, and 53 minutes from the initial bombing attack to the final bomb dropped. A more reasonable travel time is 240mph or so, which puts travel time at 50 minutes, and means they'll get there with enough fuel to fight.

Unfortunately, the timing does not favor meaningful contribution from Enterprise. The first wave went in at 0748, and the second wave came in at 0840. This is a 53 minute window. Even at their top speed, Enterprise's fighters would have to be ready, waiting, and hot at 0748 (assuming the first wave arrives, as in OTL, at 0748, and the radio alert "AIR RAID PEARL HARBOR. THIS IS NOT A DRILL" goes out instantly) in order to intercept the second wave. And, as I mentioned earlier, if they go at max speed the whole way, it's not impossible that they won't have enough fuel to fight. Enterprise's F4F-3s have a .84 hour(50.4 minutes) endurance at full throttle, which means they've got 14 minutes, 6 seconds of fuel to make a difference. Call it two minutes of fuel in order to land, and that's a twelve minute window for Enterprise's fighters to make a difference. If her fighers are hot and ready to go the second the radio alert goes out. Assuming she has to fuel and arm her fighters, they're not getting there in time, even at full throttle.

Yes, I'm greatly oversimplifying the math. I'm aware. I'm just trying to establish the basic parameters, and how hard it's going to be for Enterprise to have meaningful participation in Pearl.

rdfox said:
There is no way that signs of US detection of the attack would result in it being aborted. The way the op orders were written, Japan had committed to the attack, regardless of surprise, on 26 November, the day the fleet left Japan. The most that would happen is a possible change in target priorities--and even that's unlikely.
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The real value in detecting the attack on the way in is that it might let more air defense batteries get manned in time, and maybe more fighter cover into the air, which could increase the cost of the attack for the Japanese, which means fewer skilled pilots in later air battles, etc., etc.
 
PAGDTenno said:
So yes, some of Enterprise's planes were present. Battle 360: Enterprise also refers to this, specifying it as her 6th Scout Bomber squadron.
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<facepalm>They had been disembarked in Pearl to transfer the Marine planes, and were waiting for Enterprise to pick them back up. So, yes, they are Enterprise planes, but they were not launched from Enterprise.

Carrier-based planes can also take off from land airstrips, you know.

As for her crew listening or not to her pleas/commands/whatever, I actually said "if she had any say in the matter". It depends on how Mr. Sky wants to play that particular card. Hell, for all I know, the Marine plane transfer could have been turned into a ruse to get Big-E out of Pearl, but keep her in striking distance when the time comes. Up to Mr. Sky.
 
Could it be possible for Enterprise to be south of Pearl, close enough to provide aircover, but out of the range of the IJN?
 
Grounders10 said:
Could it be possible for Enterprise to be south of Pearl, close enough to provide aircover, but out of the range of the IJN?
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Actually, the strike planes would have the range anyway. The Nakajima B5N, a torpedo bomber, has a range of almost 2000 km. The Daichi D3A Val dive bomber, had a range of 1400 km. Both aircraft could fly the length of the Hawaiian Islands, no problem.
 
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Burning Baron said:
Actually, the strike planes would have the range anyway. The Nakajima B5N, a torpedo bomber, has a range of almost 2000 km. The Daichi D3A Val dive bomber, had a range of 1400 km. Both aircraft could fly the length of the Hawaiian Islands, no problem.
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Cut that in half, if they want to return to their launching carriers. Also, to target Enterprise, they first must find her, which is a non-trivial proposition at the best of times.
 
So another idea on "getting an early alert to Pearl" is to have a pair destroyers with early air-search radars (do any have this at the time?) on patrol duty off the coast. While radar is a new technology, having two positive signals from the Navy, and the Army's installation also picking up contacts cannot be written off as "bugs." It won't prevent the attack, but it might lead to General quarters being called before the bombs start falling, and maybe a few more Army fighters getting off the ground.

On another note, USS Nevada managed to get under way during the attack, but was forced to beach herself due to battle damage. Should Richardson tell her to sortie, or to stay at her berth?
 
Archduke said:
So another idea on "getting an early alert to Pearl" is to have a pair destroyers with early air-search radars (do any have this at the time?) on patrol duty off the coast. While radar is a new technology, having two positive signals from the Navy, and the Army's installation also picking up contacts cannot be written off as "bugs." It won't prevent the attack, but it might lead to General quarters being called before the bombs start falling, and maybe a few more Army fighters getting off the ground.

On another note, USS Nevada managed to get under way during the attack, but was forced to beach herself due to battle damage. Should Richardson tell her to sortie, or to stay at her berth?
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The radar contact wasn't written off as an anomaly, it was written off as a scheduled flight of B-17s, in one of those unfortunate coincidences that sometimes dictates the course of war.
 
The Pearl Harbor butterfly is one of the fixed points that will happen, as I remember Sky saying so. One butterfly that will probably change will be Admiral Thompson being on Saratoga for the Wake Island relief mission which is probably not going to get aborted due to a waffling admiral Pye.
 
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