Given the speeds typical of Aces or Type 0s, the amount and effectiveness of jamming, and the ability to teleport, the effective range for an engagement using Blue Wave is likely to be surprisingly short.

Fourth: The diameter of the Earth is only 0.0425 lightseconds.

For a good rule of thumb, because we have lots of experience with what Anna can do, Assume the average Type 0 is approximately her equal or superior in most ways. Rerun your assessment of probability of a hit on target at a given range with Anna as the target.

I would personally hazard that you would need to close the range to well under a hundredth of a light-second (around 3000 kilometers) before evasive maneuvers can be effectively discounted. Actually acquiring a target with a direct lock, and accounting for relay lag in the network when dealing with the curvature of the earth could easily bring the viable firing range down even further. Probably approaching, if not well under, the actual range Anna was contemplating in the most recent story post.

Accounting for Impeller based stealth, and general Antagonist Electronic Warfare capabilities meaning that a Type 0 that is not in the act of ruining someone's day can not even be targeted at all (see the destruction of Sydney Arcology where they sneaked to within "kilometers").

Still, a Blue Wave bolt should be perfectly capable of preventing a Type 0 from making good its escape when it attempts to bug out. And given that most fights between Aces and Type 0s are indecisive because the Type 0s succeed in bugging out when the odds turn against them, this would still be very productive. As an added benefit, whether the T0 lives or dies, it already being in retreat should mean that the Ace who deployed the wave is not in any greater danger than Instructor Vivas was.
 
Maybe, maybe not. Earth is really damn big and as devastating as it is, Wave Force's size is still limited. The most I can see is a new volcano forming at the entrance and exit points, and afaik even those need an active magma upwelling below them.
The problem is that all that rock in the way will sap the energy of the shot. Blue Wave doesn't have unlimited damage potential and all that mass would eat it up before it got to the target.
 
Maybe, maybe not. Earth is really damn big and as devastating as it is, Wave Force's size is still limited. The most I can see is a new volcano forming at the entrance and exit points, and afaik even those need an active magma upwelling below them.
The actual points of entry/exit of the Blue Wave aren't too important (one would be an Ordnance testing ground somewhere in the Outback and one would be an Antag battlefield), the bigger issue would be if some part of the subterranean blast sets off an earthquake somewhere. That's also manageable from a strategic perspective, but I suspect Anna/whichever Ace ends up on Blue Wave support duty might have issues with screwing over however many refugees get their camps shaken to pieces.
 
The problem is that all that rock in the way will sap the energy of the shot. Blue Wave doesn't have unlimited damage potential and all that mass would eat it up before it got to the target.

We have no idea if that's true. Depends on the Wave's penetration.

The actual points of entry/exit of the Blue Wave aren't too important (one would be an Ordnance testing ground somewhere in the Outback and one would be an Antag battlefield), the bigger issue would be if some part of the subterranean blast sets off an earthquake somewhere. That's also manageable from a strategic perspective, but I suspect Anna/whichever Ace ends up on Blue Wave support duty might have issues with screwing over however many refugees get their camps shaken to pieces.

That's what you were referring to. I basically took earthquakes as a given, yeah.
 
Oh, I just realized.

Anna specified an anti-type formation where the vanguards engage the types in close combat and the others fire at them from a distance.

But she specified herself as the only vanguard. It looks like Yue Yang kind of understands that Anna is trying to protect the other cadets, when she volunteers herself for the same, but shut down.


While this looks normal if you don't read into it, every one of those cadets should be realizing that Anna intends to tie up any force that comes at them solo.

Yeah that was the impression I got too. And it makes logical sense, given her wing has almost no live combat experience. Let them get acclimated to battle in the safest way possible, so they get the chance to develop into Elite and possibly Ace Valkyries without getting killed early on due to inexperience. But it is such an Anna thing to do.
 
For a good rule of thumb, because we have lots of experience with what Anna can do, Assume the average Type 0 is approximately her equal or superior in most ways. Rerun your assessment of probability of a hit on target at a given range with Anna as the target.
The highest speed that Anna has reached in an atmosphere was calculated (admittedly by me) at 93km/s. In 50 milliseconds (rounded up for lag and convenience) she would travel 4,650m and so clearly the blast would miss. Except velocity would be factored into Anna's aim automatically.

If we instead look at acceleration Anna normally peaks out at 1,052.6m/s^2 so in a worst case scenario (started accelerating the instant after we fired) 50ms would get her 1.3m away from our target. Which given that Type-Zeroes are 3m to 15m along their longest axis isn't that bad for a worst case scenario.

Except there are two potentially worse case scenarios. With her fusion dump Anna upped her acceleration to 6,600m/s^2 and during her deceleration she managed an insane 47,000m/s^2. The former makes a dodge more likely at 8.25m displacement and the latter guaranties it at 58.75m. At least assuming a very narrow line of effect. For all we know Blue Wave is a 100m beam of death.

However why on earth would we be sniping at a Type-Zero engaged in high-speed dodging? The thing about sniping is you get to chose your engagement target and time. We'd pick a moment the target was unlikely to dodge if possible.

Also worth noting that I wasn't suggesting sniping just Type-Zeroes. Plenty of other targets like Antagonist Battleships that wouldn't care for a hole being drilled through them.
 
[X] Wait. STRATNET's assessment appears correct. You will hold, unless something goes seriously awry. You should do your best to not place your squadron in danger, the drones are quickly replaceable and expendable. Keeping your ability, or that of your Heavy Particle Projectors to make such long range attacks through terrain secret will be strategically significant in the medium term future.
 
I figure asking her friends for help is going to be more problematic than not. Involving two teenagers in their parental figure's ptsd when we understand so little of how it's affecting her, when both of those teenagers can be more than a bit impetuous? If anything, I feel like the people who might be able to help Anna with this are the instructors.

Sandra's the parental figure, despite being younger than Yukari.

She's already looking out for them, taking the brunt of all the political side of things for them, and generally deciding things for the fight.

Alternately, revealing reserves when the fight is apparently well in hand is a bad idea and not doing that is sufficient justification in its own right. The whole point of drones is that they're expendable and if they can win the fight without revealing the valkirie reserves then that's strategically the correct choice.

Expendable is a little different from free. Waste enough and you'll run out of drones. Drones that still eat into the production of the UN, despite how cheap they are. Valkyries on site, on the other hand, is not so much free as better than free; it's basically training.

Then again, it's only for the unblooded Valks Anna's escorting, she herself shouldn't need to engage either way.

I'm pretty sure they also lose teleportation ability when they get by wave force (because they need impeller to teleport.) If they got hit, that also meant that the gap in the armor would revert to its normal size. It would be a case of "We're not trapped in here with you. You're trapped in here with us."

I'd say the Type 0s getting hit would be too dead to think about escaping, or hale and just low on impeller.

When attacks of these massive scale hits something protected by equally ludicrous defense, it's usually either "not stronk enough" or "overkill". Having just enough power to deplete all the impeller without enough leftover to kill whatever squishy parts being protected is is statistically improbable.


Read a few more comments to the same effect... did I miss us establishing that the wave force would just drain the impeller and not do actual damage?

Given the speeds typical of Aces or Type 0s, the amount and effectiveness of jamming, and the ability to teleport, the effective range for an engagement using Blue Wave is likely to be surprisingly short.

You can't "dodge" a Blue Wave as it propagates at the speed of light. The earliest possible time you'll ever learn that someone fired one at you is the exact moment when the Blue Wave hits. Unless the target is already randomly juking around beforehand, that is.
 
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Sandra's the parental figure, despite being younger than Yukari.

She's already looking out for them, taking the brunt of all the political side of things for them, and generally deciding things for the fight.



Expendable is a little different from free. Waste enough and you'll run out of drones. Drones that still eat into the production of the UN, despite how cheap they are. Valkyries on site, on the other hand, is not so much free as better than free; it's basically training.

Then again, it's only for the unblooded Valks Anna's escorting, she herself shouldn't need to engage either way.



I'd say the Type 0s getting hit would be too dead to think about escaping, or hale and just low on impeller.

When attacks of these massive scale hits something protected by equally ludicrous defense, it's usually either "not stronk enough" or "overkill". Having just enough power to deplete all the impeller without enough leftover to kill whatever squishy parts being protected is is statistically improbable.


Read a few more comments to the same effect... did I miss us establishing that the wave force would just drain the impeller and not do actual damage?

Sandra's the parental figure of the flight, but Yukari has been Koujirou and Setsuna's parental figure for a long time. Once she earns her citizenship, she'll probably be their legal guardian, if she isn't already. Trying to involve them in an intervention could damage their relationship with Yukari, which would be very bad for obvious reasons. People don't always react well to being forced to confront unpleasant facts and change their behavior. If things go poorly, better that only Anna bears her ire than Koujirou and Setsuna.
 
Sandra's the parental figure of the flight, but Yukari has been Koujirou and Setsuna's parental figure for a long time. Once she earns her citizenship, she'll probably be their legal guardian, if she isn't already. Trying to involve them in an intervention could damage their relationship with Yukari, which would be very bad for obvious reasons. People don't always react well to being forced to confront unpleasant facts and change their behavior. If things go poorly, better that only Anna bears her ire than Koujirou and Setsuna.

They know more about how to not push her than Anna does, however. Remember that she is by far the most socially inept person of the Flight, even with recent obvious progress.

Besides, Koji is harem protagonist. He is most likely to find solution to the issue, purely by the genre laws if not due to being, you know, her loving brother who knows her since childhood.
 
You can't "dodge" a Blue Wave as it propagates at the speed of light. The earliest possible time you'll ever learn that someone fired one at you is the exact moment when the Blue Wave hits. Unless the target is already randomly juking around beforehand, that is.
To be mildly pedantic, we saw Anna "bypassing" light speed lag in the tournament when she was monitering Kojirou. Whether that was Anna bypassing something within the simulation or straight-up light itself is left up in the air for now.
 
Well, at least teleport is FTL, so theoretical comms linked through Gates or whatnot are gonna be FTL by dint of taking a shortcut.


But relying on it to dodge lightspeed attacks would require sensors placed close to attack source and target on the other side of the Earth listening to them. Far-fetched.

More likely "dodge" is noticing Valkyries getting the fuck out of AoE of attack, guessing there is a reason for that and emergently teleporting from there too.
 
I am... very concerned about that allpiercing nature and infinite range thing. I dont want to pollute our universe with "fuck physics" beams. And yes, I know that it actually hitting something is astronomically unlikely.

As for fire support, poor Earth. Gotta move to orbit first I think. Also targetting data, ECM everywhere and around everyone important.
 
More likely "dodge" is noticing Valkyries getting the fuck out of AoE of attack, guessing there is a reason for that and emergently teleporting from there too.
It's pretty thin beam, and considering that Valks consider anything under 100m "zero range", that's quite a lot of space to not be in the AOE without changing their original movement patterns.

Edit:

  1. Zero Ranged: <100 meters
  2. Short Ranged: 100m - 15km
  3. Medium Range: 15km - 100km
  4. Long Range: 100km - 600km
  5. Extreme Ranged: >600km
 
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Expendable is a little different from free. Waste enough and you'll run out of drones. Drones that still eat into the production of the UN, despite how cheap they are. Valkyries on site, on the other hand, is not so much free as better than free; it's basically training.

Then again, it's only for the unblooded Valks Anna's escorting, she herself shouldn't need to engage either way.
1) The vote is literally whether or not Anna will open fire ie engage.

2) The drones aren't free - so what? This is what they're for, and engaging (a) wastefully reveals info to the enemy for little gain and (b) risks causing extreme escalation of ant forces in retaliation.
 
From the historic mission simulation:
Koujirou's breath hitched. This was what he had feared, that there would be Types hiding along the shore. Pinnacle was nearly one hundred and fifty kilometers distant, flying high with no regard to the anti-air fire, and he had nothing that could reach nearly that far.

<snip>

The Instructors had played a tactical sim before class that had this kind of scenario hadn't they? Where the AGs would hide the true extent of the forces until really needed right?

<snip>

"Second wave of missiles incoming. Link data feeds," Sandra ordered, sounding as unruffled as ever, almost as if she didn't just see a force, one that probably would have taken apart the Flight if they reached the shore before Pinnacle, appear abruptly and disappear even faster.
There's several explicit hints about a common, significant risk due to Antagonist strategies.

From classes:
"For those of you who will fight, you are not drones and it would be a grave misuse of your abilities to treat you as directed weapon systems. For all its strengths, our Strategic and Tactical Combat Command Networks rely on our inputs and opinions to function optimally. Despite our best attempts, it cannot always reach every corner of the battlefield with perfect clarity or sometimes even reach those corners at all. There will be those amongst you who will need to make calls without the assurance of STRATNET approval at your back. Calls that might lead to brilliant victory or catastrophic defeat. Calls that can save lives or condemn them. Hundreds, thousands, maybe even millions of lives will rest on you."
An explicit reminder that STRATNET isn't omniscient.

From the history about the fall of Sydney:
The Antagonists definitely seem to have an understanding of human morale, I don't doubt they timed it well enough so the UN was just too slow.
The Antagonists went for a 100% clear of all civilians, timed to be completed almost exactly before the UN counterattack. That implies an incredibly good understanding of UN strategic capabilities and timing, along with a sadistic desire to crush enemy morale.

Now, I'm not saying STRATNET is wrong in it's assessment of the current risk. It's probably as efficient a game system as an AI can be. However it's also clear from both this, and the earlier intentions to field Anna into Africa, that its sole goal is to win the game. As Sandra has lamented at length, STRATNET doesn't care about the human component. It will sacrifice pawns if that gives humanity the edge.

Strictly speaking, this will almost always be the best approach to winning a war, just as it will be the best approach to winning a game of chess or go. However this can be heavily destructive to the human psyche, and it doesn't (and can't) know that this is an anime with a Hero that will defy all expectations.

// Aside:

All of the above is my concerns about the strategic issues that may be present. However, ultimately, they are not important. They are not what should be used to make a decision, here.

///

In our case, we know that there is the possibility of Anna getting her own spin-off, similar to Railgun vs Index. That means that she has the potential of not just bullshit-tier power, but of bullshit-tier protagonist powers/luck. (Prime example: See her Luck Test in the Gambling Club.) Thus any choice made has to not only consider the IC implications, but the meta implications.

IC, there are reasonable reasons for choosing either option.

Choosing to wait helps her better integrate with authority, and calm her recklessness. It makes her more likely to rely on others (as long as relying on them actually does make things better), and trust that those around her and supporting her are competent. All of this is good.

Choosing to engage helps her be more active. It improves her leadership skills, and willingness to trust herself. Each good decision helps break down the blame that she had laid on herself for choosing to defeat Sekhmet and the Saskatoon Breach in order to protect people. It reinforces her desire and willingness to act in the protection of humanity. All of this is good.

Meta-wise, I don't think we should vote based on whether we think STRATNET is right. It's entirely possible that whether STRATNET is right or wrong depends entirely on which choice we vote for. That is, both outcomes can validate Anna's decision, but the point of the choice is in how we shape Anna's personality. Do we want to shift her to an active, leading role, or to a trusting, supportive role?

People seem to be voting primarily based on whether they think the IC strategic evaluation and risks presented are correct. However this is an Important Decision. Frankly, no matter whether STRATNET is right or wrong, both choices offered can work to Anna's benefit IC. Therefore the Important Decision cannot be an IC strategic one. It must necessarily be a meta one.

This is a choice about who Anna is as a person, not about whether this is a strategically sound move. Do you want Leader Anna, or Supporter Anna?
 
I am... very concerned about that allpiercing nature and infinite range thing. I dont want to pollute our universe with "fuck physics" beams. And yes, I know that it actually hitting something is astronomically unlikely.

As for fire support, poor Earth. Gotta move to orbit first I think. Also targetting data, ECM everywhere and around everyone important.
As long as you don't slice the moon or the sun in half.
 
I mostly voted for waiting because I thought that if something about the situation is not what stratnet said it is, losing anyone in her flight after engaging would be worse for Anna's trauma than other people dying if she waits. And if something is wrong here, that'll make going against stratnet later easier narratively.
 
People seem to be voting primarily based on whether they think the IC strategic evaluation and risks presented are correct. However this is an Important Decision. Frankly, no matter whether STRATNET is right or wrong, both choices offered can work to Anna's benefit IC. Therefore the Important Decision cannot be an IC strategic one. It must necessarily be a meta one.
No, no. I'm not voting if STRATNET is right, that's impossible to know. I'm voting for what's the right decision with the information on hand (which can, sometimes, be the wrong decision).

Also, getting Anna to trust and be able to work with people is one of the major issues of hers that I think most of us are trying to help her resolve.
 
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Sandra owns a jet.

A jet. Her own jet.

You are utterly star struck at the thought. The stories of the rich men with unimaginable wealth and power from the old and tattered magazines always mentioned a private jet. Comfortable couches, beds and freshly made food, all the while in the air above the clouds, far from the troubles of the earth and the masses below them.
I don't really know why Anna finds this so impressive. Considering the large scale construction she has been doing and how the crafting class worships her I feel like she could make a jet given a week and scrap materials.
 
Which reminds me, voting.

[X] Wait. STRATNET's assessment appears correct. You will hold, unless something goes seriously awry. You should do your best to not place your squadron in danger, the drones are quickly replaceable and expendable. Keeping your ability, or that of your Heavy Particle Projectors to make such long range attacks through terrain secret will be strategically significant in the medium term future.
 
No, no. I'm not voting if STRATNET is right, that's impossible to know. I'm voting for what's the right decision with the information on hand (which can, sometimes, be the wrong decision).

Also, getting Anna to trust and be able to work with people is one of the major issues of hers that I think most of us are trying to help her resolve.
I appreciate the reply, even if the quote box is pointing at the wrong person.
 
From the historic mission simulation:

There's several explicit hints about a common, significant risk due to Antagonist strategies.

From classes:

An explicit reminder that STRATNET isn't omniscient.

From the history about the fall of Sydney:

The Antagonists went for a 100% clear of all civilians, timed to be completed almost exactly before the UN counterattack. That implies an incredibly good understanding of UN strategic capabilities and timing, along with a sadistic desire to crush enemy morale.

Now, I'm not saying STRATNET is wrong in it's assessment of the current risk. It's probably as efficient a game system as an AI can be. However it's also clear from both this, and the earlier intentions to field Anna into Africa, that its sole goal is to win the game. As Sandra has lamented at length, STRATNET doesn't care about the human component. It will sacrifice pawns if that gives humanity the edge.

Strictly speaking, this will almost always be the best approach to winning a war, just as it will be the best approach to winning a game of chess or go. However this can be heavily destructive to the human psyche, and it doesn't (and can't) know that this is an anime with a Hero that will defy all expectations.

// Aside:

All of the above is my concerns about the strategic issues that may be present. However, ultimately, they are not important. They are not what should be used to make a decision, here.

///

In our case, we know that there is the possibility of Anna getting her own spin-off, similar to Railgun vs Index. That means that she has the potential of not just bullshit-tier power, but of bullshit-tier protagonist powers/luck. (Prime example: See her Luck Test in the Gambling Club.) Thus any choice made has to not only consider the IC implications, but the meta implications.

IC, there are reasonable reasons for choosing either option.

Choosing to wait helps her better integrate with authority, and calm her recklessness. It makes her more likely to rely on others (as long as relying on them actually does make things better), and trust that those around her and supporting her are competent. All of this is good.

Choosing to engage helps her be more active. It improves her leadership skills, and willingness to trust herself. Each good decision helps break down the blame that she had laid on herself for choosing to defeat Sekhmet and the Saskatoon Breach in order to protect people. It reinforces her desire and willingness to act in the protection of humanity. All of this is good.

Meta-wise, I don't think we should vote based on whether we think STRATNET is right. It's entirely possible that whether STRATNET is right or wrong depends entirely on which choice we vote for. That is, both outcomes can validate Anna's decision, but the point of the choice is in how we shape Anna's personality. Do we want to shift her to an active, leading role, or to a trusting, supportive role?

People seem to be voting primarily based on whether they think the IC strategic evaluation and risks presented are correct. However this is an Important Decision. Frankly, no matter whether STRATNET is right or wrong, both choices offered can work to Anna's benefit IC. Therefore the Important Decision cannot be an IC strategic one. It must necessarily be a meta one.

This is a choice about who Anna is as a person, not about whether this is a strategically sound move. Do you want Leader Anna, or Supporter Anna?
Like the majority of the update is focusing on how Anna has major trust issues. In light of that, I would vote wait and trust an outside source instead of engage and ignore what other people think.
 
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