Speaking of power and atomash, Sabine Hossenfelder has an interesting video on nuclear plant construction costs:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EsBiC9HjyQ
And something a little off topic for the quest, but that people might find interesting, Ars technica had an interesting article on taking out dams, something our successors will probably need to be doing down the road, when what we've built so far in the quest gets too old:
As US dams age, removal is always an option—and it can be done well.
arstechnica.com
Dams have long service lives, so not something I expect will come up before Blackstar gets tired of running the quest.
We need to be very careful to not allow more problems with oil prices; the Supreme Soviet is pissed.
I can't really blame them. From the news that has filtered through to us in the ministry, there hasn't been any significant unrest in the Soviet-aligned world except for Indonesia (which the SupSov can blame on Maoist misunderstandings of the Marxist-Leninist true way) until fuel prices led to a serious crisis in Poland and East Africa and some discomfort in the USSR itself. Compared to the OTL reality of a more than once-per-decade incidence of major regime-threatening unrest in Eastern Europe alone, so the sudden spike in unrest will be a much greater shock.
That said, the crisis is one that also offers us some opportunity, so long as we don't fumble the aftermath. Peak oil production inside Soviet borders will be coming in the 80s (we've been slower to ramp up oil production than the OTL Soviet Union, but not so much so that steadily expanding oil demand won't hit the limits of how fast we can physically pump oil out of the land more than a couple years behind the OTL schedule). This small crisis gives us an opportunity to spend the next four plans preparing for a 1990s where domestic oil production won't be as cheap. Options to raise energy efficiency of various parts of the economy will be most important for that, but almost as important will be the roll-out of nuclear power and building bridges with Middle Eastern oil producers, some of which must eventually have falling-outs with the American imperial system and offer opportunities for the foreign ministry to get us a backstop producer so that hitting local peak production doesn't matter so much.
The Americans will have probably hit local peak oil within their borders at some point in the last 5 years, unless something VERY strange has happened in their economy, in which case it will come in the early 70s. Either way, that will shift the bargaining power of third world producers and the emergence of something like OPEC soon, increasing opportunities for US diplomacy to fail to manage the shifting balance of power.
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Now with regards to the vote, let me go through the options:
For the rocketry options, the big issue is the low roll on the outer solar system probes. Was it low enough to cause issues? If so what issues?
Grand Tour: More ambitious by some way than the US Voyager probes - twice the probes, two out of the four being super-heavies that the US of OTL didn't have the capability to manage, only issue is, will these probes be sufficiently reliable with our low roll?
Staggered Launches: The only option that sends a probe on to Pluto. Also gives more attention to the Jovian and Saturnian moons. Should let us do as much science Saturn and beyond as all of OTL's efforts so far. Pretty nifty really. That said, it is still 4 probes and the weight class of the probes isn't clear. The launches going up to 1979 means there is more time to find bugs in the hardware, which is something. This may be the most conservative approach and with the best reliability.
Full Surveys: No visit to Pluto, this takes little advantage of the alignment of the planets (once we have the nuclear stage we could use that to mount similar one-planetary system probes to the outer planets any year we please), most expensive option and involves aerobreaking. With our low roll, that last maneuver might be... foolhardy. However, launches will be happening up to 1979, meaning we have more time to find hardware bugs, the science we would get if we pull this off, especially from the Uranian and Neptunian systems, which in OTL we know relatively little about, will mean that TTL's USSR might end up knowing more about these distant planets than we do in OTL's 2024. We will also be sending two probes to each target, meaning we should have better chances that at least ONE probe will work and pull off its aerobreak. Also, longer residence time in the target planetary systems mean we should be able to manage MUCH longer studies of the target bodies than a simple flyby. Also, if we do the nuclear drives, if the low roll means the probes will be going overweight for the hydrolox stage, we won't need to worry too much about that.
The full survey also makes heavy use of the RLA-3, which is... well, probably a good thing to show our big fancy rocket has return on investment. Expanding our launch infrastructure is more ambiguous. The question is, will we ever need to launch a whole brace of RLA-3s one after the other ever again? If we won't, we'll be paying for capacity we don't need, making the whole program less efficient. But if we do... If we go on to have a space station program big enough to need such frequent RLA-3 launches, or if we develop multi-payload fairings like the one that made Ariane V such a competitive launcher in its day, or if we go on to go to the moon using RLA-3s and nuclear drives... Well, the expanded infrastructure would be very valuable.
Another worry I have is the full survey and the nuclear drives (which I continue to believe are a priority) will leave us with no slack in the budget, meaning that the light launcher will likely be left to the military, the Mercury probes will be delayed indefinitely, the manned program and the Luna program will be, well, constrained for some time... Of particular worry is if the SupSov become unhappy at the lack of a light launcher...
As such, I am leaning towards staggered launches or full survey, the safe approach that is still wildly superior to all the outer solar system probes launched so far in OTL, or the more ambitious approach that absolutely blows the doors off the outer solar system's mysteries...
[]Alexander Fedorovich Kamenev: Rising in prominence from being tracked with directing a wide stretch of road projects in unconventional areas, Kamenev has proven himself adept at the task. He represents one of the few outspoken advocates for the modernization of construction techniques along with increased deployments of heavy machinery to aid in construction. He has proven at least capable of directing large-scale distributed construction projects and can effectively be used towards whatever enlarged housing or roads project is undertaken by the ministry. His excessive youth is going to pose a problem towards an actual succession, but given time and experience that should be overcome. (+2 Infra Actions)
[]Stepan Ivanovich Chistoplyasov: Graduating and defending his candidature in agriculture before large-scale expansions he was immediately tasked with raising grain production in the Altai. Continued work and pioneering improvements through the cultivation of dwarf wheat along with taking advantage of the shorter growing seasons have already yielded considerable results. Chistoplyasov is frankly an over-promoted youth well in over his head but he has managed good results on projects of moderate scale and has a knack for leadership. It's almost guaranteed that he will conflict with the agricultural department, but getting involved in lower-risk politics will provide some experience. (+2 Agricultural Dice)
[]Yuri Nikiforovich Elchenko: A committed politician who was to defend his dissertation in mechanical engineering but was transferred towards the production of more important projects. One of the personnel involved in the automotive industry he has pushed for further improvements in manufacturing and line integration. As his policies have improved production and found some basis in reality this has led to his rapid promotion up the chain. He remains one of the younger candidates for consideration and without much of a technical base, but he can at least be trusted for the construction of new factories. (+2 Heavy Industry Dice)
[]Vladimir Fedorovich Balakirev: Rising from consulting for the technical development of Sverdlovsk, Balakriev has held a significant technical if not notably political post. He graduated as a chemical engineer and immediately moved toward state advisory bodies, providing some experience in higher-level management. Effectively one of the personnel who has pushed the oil industry and significantly developed the local plastic sector his economic contributions are unquestionable. Continued work will almost certainly focus on the stabilization of the petrochemical industry making him a capable candidate for promotion given that the majority of growth is expected to occur in the same region. (+2 LCI Dice this plan, +2 Chemical Industry dice next plan)
[]Nukh Aslancherievich Berzegov: Rapidly pushed through economic schools and defended a dissertation on the previous economic crisis, Berzegov remains the ostensibly most qualified from a theoretical perspective. His managerial expertise remains almost entirely unknown as he is nearly a pure academic who rose through the educational program rather than a political one. His own achievements and direct relevant publications will provide a good flexible advisory basis for policies along with a better high-level approach. Furthermore, by keeping Berzegov in an advisory role he can more readily incorporate into the center improving the odds he can hold onto the ministry. (+1 Free Dice)
On to the deputy question... I am leaning towards Balakirev, since LCI and chemical industries will continue to be extremely important. IMO next plan should be our "energy security" plan, with a HI focus to get atomash going, but keeping up with oil demand and expanding chemical industries will be high priority as well. Balakirev also has a good level of experience, so he seems like someone who'd make a fair successor.
Kamenev is interesting. Infra continues to require enormous amounts of investment, and modernization of the construction industry sounds quite desirable.
Berzegov offering free dice is good as well. The deputies that offer more dice in specific areas might not be so great, if we can't afford to activate those dice. So less dice but that can be assigned to wherever we need them that year might be strong. Also, his more wholistic view might make him a strong minister one day.
Another hard choice...
[]Alexey Ivanovich Krylov: Graduating through the Leningrad University system as a sociologist focusing on problems of under-addressed populations and means of addressing them Krylov is well suited to the post. He has little experience in managing outside of the laboratory level but he is more than able to fulfil the role of a deputy minister. It is almost certain that the majority of projects proposed by him will be centered around the distribution of population services to an excessive degree, but that can help to build up government popularity all the same.
[]Nikolay Fedorovich Tatarchuk: Moving up from the agricultural program and to a wider extent the food program Tatarchuk has an unconventional basis for the post, but an adequate one given the problems of serving the countryside. Conventional approaches have worked adequately for centralized areas but movement into the countryside has persistently been limited both by political limitations and a lack of applicable experience. The countryside is inherently far less dense, necessitating a different focus and a different base of experience. Further, he has some experience managing ministry programs, if in a slightly different area than conventional.
[]Mikhail Sergeevich Gorbachev: An MSU graduate who rose in the legal service with the massive expansion of public trials, presiding over several cases in the Saratov legal circuit. He has a degree of experience in working for general legal programs involved with case law along with a sufficient degree of party backing. Moving Gorbachev will involve necessary movements towards reforming the legal system as he is convinced that it has areas of unfairness towards those without the ability to hire good representation. The previous expansion of the legal program has proven popular and a judge of a regional circuit should have the base managerial experience to ease into a ministry post.
Arg! These guys are all amazing!
Meeting the needs of under-served populations will be huge, as those populations will add up to a significant number of people and a huge source of friction and inefficiency in the system. And of course, many of those populations will be rural, so Krylov shows great promise.
Tatarchuk would help with our goal of un-borking the rural USSR, a goal which I feel we are still well short on. And most importantly, he would be introducing policy changes. Bad policy is the worst problem in the rural areas.
Gorbachev and his legal reforms are, well, probably rather necessary. OTL there were all kinds of issues in the Soviet legal system. And in TTL we also have enterprise managers hiring lawyers to jump all over the little guy.
Interestingly, OTL Gorbachev hated working in the legal profession and transferred to Komsomol in the 50s. That he's stuck with being a prosecutor maybe means that our legal system is at least a bit better than the OTL one.
Will need to think more before I vote.
Regards,
fasquardon
