Attempting to Fulfill the Plan MNKh Edition

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And of course the Caspian being over-estimated by 50% compared to reality is just the tip of the first iceberg we happened to run into among a huge ocean full of them. The really scary part is that probably many other reserves in many other places are ALSO over-estimated so it only goes downhill from here... yeah, we're pretty locked into CI/Services I think.

A possibility that Balakirev should be completely aware of.

I wonder if he would be ready to take a plan that cannot be fulfilled, though not by a large margin, just to make sure the Soviet Union can take steps to prepare itself from the crisis.
Even if it would be us who would decide if it is worth to press that hypothetical button.
 
I don't see how that'll save us. If the reserves are screwed, they're screwed. It can't be outworked with more dice. Our solution is a major deal with Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, combined with enduring the oilshock and reducing usage as much as possible.

It's not to magically find more oil reserves, it's to frantically shift to gas instead of oil. For example:
Chemical Industry:
[...]
(Required for Shale Experiments, Massive Hydraulic Fracturing(Stage 3-8), CNG Vehicle Fuel Conversions(Stage 1-3)
Last time around the proposed CI focus was actually nearly entirely dedicated to new methods for extracting and using natural gas, not oil. I think the trend in fuel markets as well as Bala's increasing internal panic will push a CI focus even farther in that direction than it was 5 years ago. Oil is a lost cause, but we still need a CI focus to try and get off it in favor of gas.
 
I wonder if he would be ready to take a plan that cannot be fulfilled, though not by a large margin, just to make sure the Soviet Union can take steps to prepare itself from the crisis.
Even if it would be us who would decide if it is worth to press that hypothetical button.
No politically feasible plan target is gonna withstand oil shock. Balakirev's hope is he can make sure its as painless as possible if it happens before he can take higher offices so his career doesn't implode. The man that couldn't manage the CMEA wide effects of oil crisis is not going to advance his carreer and he knows it.
 
Yeah we're so late in the game for the oil crisis to STILL not have popped that I consider us pretty much locked into a CI focus, either it's going to happen in the near future and we'll want the extra dice for the crisis reaction or it'll happen post-1985 when global oil consumption is so high that the supply shock causes a near apocalyptic collapse in global shipping. I mean like mass famines and economic collapse as globalized trade shuts down, the later it gets the worse it hits obviously.
What is the probability that Blackstar is just messing with us and the Oilshock just isn't going to materialise?

Looking it up, OTL it happened in 1973, 1990 and 2020. Isn't it just like... entirely possible it doesn't happen?
 
What is the probability that Blackstar is just messing with us and the Oilshock just isn't going to materialise?

Looking it up, OTL it happened in 1973, 1990 and 2020. Isn't it just like... entirely possible it doesn't happen?
We're consuming so much conventional and basic fracking oil that we're approaching critical reserve depletion without the decades of semi-related advancements needed to make heavy fracking and shale oil viable.
 
We're consuming so much conventional and basic fracking oil that we're approaching critical reserve depletion without the decades of semi-related advancements needed to make heavy fracking and shale oil viable.
What is the "shale experiments" and "massive hydraulic fracturing" that we'd be building with a CI focus? I'm assuming it will include some technical development, is the needed technology just fundamentally unworkable with 1980s computers and material science or something?
 
What is the "shale experiments" and "massive hydraulic fracturing" that we'd be building with a CI focus? I'm assuming it will include some technical development, is the needed technology just fundamentally unworkable with 1980s computers and material science or something?
We can achieve some gains in the here and now, but there's only so fast you can push the relevant technologies and, critically...

Shale oil and the extreme form of fracking deliver very expensive oil even nowadays, so they won't be really economical as primary sources until oil prices have well and truly spiked, similar to the arctic oil. Meanwhile, the prices rising up to meet their cost per barrel would definitely entail an oilshock.
 
What is the probability that Blackstar is just messing with us and the Oilshock just isn't going to materialise?

Looking it up, OTL it happened in 1973, 1990 and 2020. Isn't it just like... entirely possible it doesn't happen?
Aside from any meta knowledge about what deposits actually exist as truly extractable with 1980s technology vs. fraud on paper (spoilers: it's a lot of fraud), we can still see an imminent oil crisis coming with purely in-character data. Petroleum fuels demand keeps soaring year-on-year while energy return on investment for oil projects steadily declines, at current trends it will be impossible to extract enough oil to meet demand even if we put all our dice on it within 5 years, or maybe 10 at the hard outside if everything comes up nat 100s.
 
So is this where we take a page out of fallout's world and make nuclear cars?

Trust me, giving random citizens access to mini nuclear reactors will be perfectly fine.
 
So is this where we take a page out of fallout's world and make nuclear cars?
You can make them run on natural gas instead, this is an actual real thing and to this day some cars will still run on liquefied natural gas. And there our gas is so cheap that experiments in that area are being done just because it's actually interesting cost wise, the USSR is actually developing some tech knowledge in the area already. Hopefully the efforts on this can be expanded some more before the shock comes.

Of course if you use gas for all your cars... you'd prefer to not use it as much for things like power generation, as otherwise gas demand might ramp up far to quickly. Thus in a sense why many people think the continued nuclear roll out should continue, one has to generate electricity with something after all. Fortunately as an extra benefit due to how a few rolls with aircons went, the USSR covers much of its heating via heatpump/aircon technology, which is electric. So gas demand from home heating is much more limited then it could have been as well.


Well as such, with insufficient oil there is a need to redistribute where the other fossil fuels go to try and make up for that. And fortunately this is possible... for now. Hopefully the economy soon enough reaches some what developed levels and there isn't as much of a need for far more energy intensive industries anymore.
 
So, power next plan. With the electricity demand of a CI focused plan, we'll still need four autodice on fossil fuel power. Pursuing the aim of pivoting the gas supply away from power plants, 3 coal 1 gas would work. However, going from 3 gas dice this plan (and a history of two dice most plans before) to suddenly 1 dice could shock the gas turbine industry badly. Fear of such shock is why we didn't try 3 gas/1 coal at the start of this plan. 2 gas 2 coal would be more balanced, but I do not know if it will cause problems (both in directly overtaxing our gas wells and in convincing SupSov that we do not need to severely draw down gas power).

Thoughts on what to prioritize?
 
Cannon Omake: Sovietwave: Synthpop in the land of soviets
Here's a little musical omake called "Sovietwave: Synthpop in the land of soviets", I hope you like it.

If in the West, the rise of a new musical genre, after a phase of technical experimentation based on the will and talent of pasionate individuals, is based in part on its commercial potential as a vector of substantial profits in a buoyant market, in the Soviet Union, we can add the role of the State and its objectives in the promotion and development of new musical genres.

This is particularly true of sovietwave, whose international name is simply электронная музыка (electronic music) for the Soviets, a native variation of synthpop (short for synthesizer pop) which appeared at the same time in Western Europe.

Indeed, in the West, the rise of this genre of music, with the synthesizer as its main instrument, was due to a desire for artistic renewal among subculture-minded musical groups, in the case of the Soviet Union, the popularization of what was to become sovietwave was due to the desire of the Soviet state, and more specifically of the Ministry of Culture of the Ministry of National Economy, to find a modern, innovative soundtrack to accompany the images of space exploration by the Soviet space program from the 70s onwards - whether during the lift-off of the numerous rockets in the Soviet program, or when the images brought back by the probes were presented to the public on television - on the public channels of Soviet television, and thus extol the achievements of the Soviet Union in the field of space compared to its American competitor, not only to its own population but also to world public opinion. Indeed, the Soviet Union was one of the first states to have developed a global telecommunications network based on satellites launched from their space facilities, in order to influence world public opinion through the virtually free broadcasting of its television channels, and therefore intended to use this channel of communication as mean to positively influence the rest of the world's perception of the Soviet Union.

Moreover, the political aspect of promoting this music was not only due to the spatial competition of the Cold War, but also to the political balances in the decision-making spheres of the Soviet state apparatus. Indeed, paradoxical as it may seem, this musical genre found allies in the supreme soviet that normally oppose each other in the person of the neo-Stalinist and progressive factions, even though the reasons for this promotion differed.

In the case of the neo-Stalinists, this desire to promote this type of music is based on a conception of music that is authentically Soviet, and not simply an offshoot of a Western or even bourgeois musical genre. According to the rhetoric of this political group, sovietwave constitutes a new avatar of authentically Soviet musical creation, such as the theremin, and also demonstrates Soviet industrial progress in the technological sphere, since the main instrument of this music is a synthesizer: an instrument which, in order to be produced locally, requires an industry capable of mass-producing continuously behaving electronic circuits and the peripherals enabling the composition of this electronic music. Such a sector was still a novelty in the Soviet industrial palette of the 70s and 80s, and could therefore be used by neo-Stalinists to extol the industrial progress of the Soviet Union - and incidentally justify the type of economic development they supported at the time - in this field, in addition to extolling an entirely Soviet musical genre.

As far as progressive parliamentarians were concerned, this promotion was more simply part of a desire to put forward new musical genres to justify cultural modernity alongside political and economic modernity - promoting political freedoms and economic freedoms by increasing the role of the market in economic mechanisms.

Nevertheless, it would be wrong to make the emergence of "sovietwave" solely a story of political support and technological development, since the rise of this musical genre is also the fruit of decades of investment by the Soviet Union since Malenkov in the artistic and cultural spheres, with the foundation of numerous art schools, and film schools throughout the Soviet Union (such as the Sverdlovsk Art Institute, the Leninogorsk Conservatory and the ReklamFil'm institutional studio in Tallinn): In the decades that followed, they provided the Soviet music scene with a pool of talent eager to explore, aided by the cultural liberalization that followed Stalin's death.

Among the leading figures of this type of music are the Kiev-based band Soyuz-61, formed in 1975 by two engineering students (their best-known song being "Ballet"), the Magnitogorsk band, formed in 1971 (their best-known song being "Electric Star"), and the Minsk-based music band Proton, formed in 1976 (their best-known song being "Zero"). True to its tradition of taking the best ideas from the private sector and injecting and developing them under the pavilion of the public sector, these bands were originally amateur groups who had been spotted through observation of the Soviet amateur or specialized music scene before making an offer to collaborate on projects supported by the Ministry of the National Economy or nationalization for the luckier ones: an offer synonymous with artistic, national or even international recognition, with worldwide broadcasting via the Soviet Union's satellite television network, and therefore difficult for the latter to refuse.

Initially restricted to the cultural sphere of the Soviet Union, with participation in music festivals such as the Leningrad and Moscow Music Festivals, this musical genre was then popularized throughout the Eastern Bloc with its introduction at the Sopot International Music Festival - a veritable showcase for the musical achievements of the Eastern Bloc and a place for cultural circulation displaying an overcoming of Cold War logic - before being invited, thanks to this festival, to the West with the participation of the aforementioned groups at the Toulouse International Music Festival in 1981. It was during this festival that fans of new musical genres had their first opportunity to compare these two varieties of synthpop and judge them artistically, even if ideological presuppositions might have biased this work.

Thus, after a Stalinist period marked by socialist realism and official art, in the following decades the Soviet Union managed to free itself from this burdensome past, offering its competitors on the cultural scene serious rivals to their own champions in the struggle for global cultural hegemony.

Excerpts from "Music for the Masses: Soviet Music from the Russian Revolution to the 1980s" by the canadian art historian Andrey Colton" (1990).
 
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@Blackstar - was my last question not information you want us to have yet?

If you missed it, here is the question again:

if we go for either one of the RLA-3 based mission architectures, will we also continue working on a super heavy? Or is the heavy lander the only way to continue working on a (now clean sheet) superheavy design? And if we do continue working on the superheavy, will the 3 man moon lander we're making for the RLA-3+nuclear stage approach be useable with it?

"Sovietwave: Synthpop in the land of soviets"

Speaking of this, if anyone likes synthpop and other forms of electronica, the OTL Soviet Union and the rest of the Eastern Block had some excellent acts that are well worth listening to.

Probably my favorites are Sergei Djokanov and Eduard Artemiev.

I'd prefer CI and Services if we're not doing infrastructure.

Everyone has made good arguments that we have an opportunity to pivot to CI next plan. That does reassure me that giving HI a couple more dice just now isn't a terrible decision.

So, power next plan. With the electricity demand of a CI focused plan, we'll still need four autodice on fossil fuel power. Pursuing the aim of pivoting the gas supply away from power plants, 3 coal 1 gas would work. However, going from 3 gas dice this plan (and a history of two dice most plans before) to suddenly 1 dice could shock the gas turbine industry badly. Fear of such shock is why we didn't try 3 gas/1 coal at the start of this plan. 2 gas 2 coal would be more balanced, but I do not know if it will cause problems (both in directly overtaxing our gas wells and in convincing SupSov that we do not need to severely draw down gas power).

Thoughts on what to prioritize?

My own feeling is that we probably shouldn't jerk the industries around too much. The failure of our predictions of how much electricity we needed ahead of the current plan leaves me feeling that cutting gas power plant installation by too much next plan might be dangerous. Drop gas by one dice from the current plan, raise coal by one, maybe two (we did shrink the coal turbine production sharply this plan, so maybe there's some mothballed capacity that'd be cheap enough to re-mobilize). That way, if our predictions are short again, we can increase gas power plant production back to the current rate or something without disrupting employment too much.

Regards,

fasquardon
 
Even with 2 coal 2 gas we'll be getting more electricity next plan than we get this one due to our nuclear investments, so I don't think going further than 3 coal 2 gas will be necessary. We probably won't have the budget for it anyway if we go for 4 dice nuclear.
 
i feel we need more ic but ether outside of our character story`s
from ether lower level pov or outsider pov.
can not think of one project on its own that would warrent it thou.

uhm maybe have some nature loving type rant about how bad things are.
some story about the spacerace mixed with a little cold war spy action.

whatever doing on in any of the eastern block country`s.
the weird relations that must be going on in india with semi friendly SU and China on its border.

speaking of still weird to me that soviet union so passive about SA but i think thats because we putting so much effort in too africa.
not fully sure on that.
 
Finally caught up the story. Now my big concern with us not doing a fallout. What happens when we reach 2025? Also what was the reason for the switch from 6 mo turns to 1 year turns?
 
Finally caught up the story. Now my big concern with us not doing a fallout. What happens when we reach 2025? Also what was the reason for the switch from 6 mo turns to 1 year turns?
No need to be paranoid about that, be paranoid about how to handle the consequences of the world having a lot more people when people didn't even really know how the worlds environments function.
 
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