Attempting to Fulfill the Plan MNKh Edition

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Wonder how more paranoid Switzerland is with a fully red Germany? Anyone have any ideas.

And a Red Austria, which means half their neighbors are fully Red, one is the Italians who have shown signs of flipping in the past, and one is the French, which is worse. I imagine they've doubled down on neutrality as a shield and are probably the leader in mountain redoubts and bunkerization. Especially after this latest crisis.
 
That the workers will vote for greater material prosperity is predictable. Then the question becomes "okay, the workers have voted to have greater material prosperity. What form will the attempt to implement their wishes take?"
I think you misunderstood my issue with Soviet developmentalism. It's not that it sought to meet the material needs of its citizens, but that it did so by capitalist measures. Hence why I brought up cars and TV dinners, as both represent the kind of products that an alienating mode of production would take to represent abundance. Now, the New Socialist Person does not need to be some obsequious collectivist who does everything with and for the community, but you shouldn't encourage them to live their lives in isolating boxes (whether cars or suburban homes) or, fifty years hence, have their personalized media feed confirm all their worst biases. The whole "real capitalist prosperity" versus "abstract socialist freedom" is bunk, is what I'm saying. But there are folks who have said that better than me, like the people working out the idea of Library Socialism in the present day. In the context of this quest though, the best thing we could do is invest in amenities which a private property regime has trouble matching (like libraries and care facilities), maintain social guarantees like Healthcare, Housing, and Employment (and maybe expand on those, or shorten the workday), and expand the democratic control which people have over their everyday environment.
 
And a Red Austria, which means half their neighbors are fully Red, one is the Italians who have shown signs of flipping in the past, and one is the French, which is worse. I imagine they've doubled down on neutrality as a shield and are probably the leader in mountain redoubts and bunkerization. Especially after this latest crisis.
Guess they will make up and make even more for the bunkers that Albania will not be making.
 
Here's a fun take for you guys:

The doves were more successful at getting allied states than the hawks. The EAF, Indonesia, and indeed most of our African allies flipped with doves in power, because the doves aren't actually peaceniks, they just wanted to show actual discernment in who we send guns to.

Like argueably the only success the Hawks had was convincing Indonesia to purge the maoists, everything else was just building off Kosygins groundwork or incidental from factors the Hawks had nothing to do with
I start to see where you're coming from. The Doves made mistakes, but thank you for pointing out how much success they had too. I and others cheered the hawks when they reduced discernment in who they send guns to because we assumed most of French Africa was being actively contested and every extra fire to spread out the French was good. Whether or not the assumption was true at first, it definitely is not now.

The dynamic phase of the anti-colonial struggle has ended, the Capitalists and Communists have each secured their own patches of clay. Whether or not the actions of the Doves caused us to win less than we otherwise could have is water under the bridge, because in this static phase a serious attempt by Hawks of one side to dislodge by force the other from territory they have secured is likely to only end the world in nuclear fire, we learnt that the hard way. Best focus on securing the loyalty of what allies we have, and not setting the world alight around them.

[snip lots of words]
AN: Apologies for any incoherent writing/am writing this between interviews as a de-stress ><
Oh jeez. Seeing that massive post I was gonna day you didn't need to stress yourself out over this quest, but apparently you write essays like this as a destressing mechanism? Assuming that actually works, you really are build different! This is fascinating stuff, though I admit a lot of it goes over my head. As a player of this quest I think a lot more about how we practically are securing prosperity for the USSR's populations rather than abstract socialist theory.

Well, eyeballing the political crisis rolls it looks like the two most key hawks with access to foreign policy levers are about to get purged in the power struggle so...
Perhaps. It is not clear whether the retirement rolls represent how successful Seymonov was at making them retire, or how successful they were at avoiding retirement. (think about how in the crisis, a low roll on "escalation" represented us failing to not escalate)

Also why is Seymonov attempting to yeet Babkov? He pushed against escalating in the crisis (per word of god), is Seymonov having a meltdown and yeeting all the hawks on principle no matter what?
 
Perhaps. It is not clear whether the retirement rolls represent how successful Seymonov was at making them retire, or how successful they were at avoiding retirement. (think about how in the crisis, a low roll on "escalation" represented us failing to not escalate)
It was the latter, so a high roll there is good for the Ministers in question.
 
I start to see where you're coming from. The Doves made mistakes, but thank you for pointing out how much success they had too. I and others cheered the hawks when they reduced discernment in who they send guns to because we assumed most of French Africa was being actively contested and every extra fire to spread out the French was good. Whether or not the assumption was true at first, it definitely is not now.

The dynamic phase of the anti-colonial struggle has ended, the Capitalists and Communists have each secured their own patches of clay. Whether or not the actions of the Doves caused us to win less than we otherwise could have is water under the bridge, because in this static phase a serious attempt by Hawks of one side to dislodge by force the other from territory they have secured is likely to only end the world in nuclear fire, we learnt that the hard way. Best focus on securing the loyalty of what allies we have, and not setting the world alight around them.
TBH I don't know that this is an accurate characterization of the situation, the Mediterranean Crisis was a thing not just because we're contesting Africa but because we're contesting *Algeria* specifically, which the French consider to be part of their metropole, and then on top of that chose the (in hindsight) most escalatory option possible. As per Blackstar earlier:
To a significant portion of the French public Algeria is well, France. It is the metropole directly especially as the coastal cities are well, majority francophone at this point by far. This is the equivalent of arming organized resistance in California for the US on the basis that it's rightfully Mexican.


And like, despite us directly arming guerillas in what France considers core territory, if we had chosen to arm them in a more deniable way (or hell, let Gaddafi missile a cruise ship or two lmao) then the entire nuclear war scare would have been averted, even if Soviet weapons continued to flow into Algeria in more or less the same volumes:
The free flow of trade thing is entirely an excuse and arguably you can do the same armaments shuffle just through Egypt, there isn't exactly any love lost for France in Egypt.

And no, escalating is not in general a trap option, for example, major troop movements in the previous option would not have even resulted in a major French reaction outside an enhanced state of readiness. You can generally escalate and get away with a lot, it's just for some reason the thread chose to run a French blockade, giving missiles to Gadafi would have been far less incendiary than then this as it would have been him giving the orders/shooting at random civilian shipping.
Moreover, the already ongoing conflicts really do not support the view that any poking at Western spheres of influence will inevitably result in nuclear war. Nobody has so much as mentioned nukes yet over the South African conflict even though Korea literally has a whole ass division and change on the ground shooting South Africans [1], nor did France threaten to go nuclear over the ongoing civil war in Chad which the Soviet-aligned insurgent group FROLINAT is currently winning (or the other West African countries that we flipped / destabilized, for that matter) [2], and of course the Congo has been on fire for like two decades straight without even a hint of the nukes coming out from either side. Blackstar has also commented on the subject previously during the post-vote panic, saying:

This isn't to say that the lesson to be learned from the Mediterranean Crisis is "escalation is based, let's fuck with France no matter the costs", but by the same token I don't think going all in on non-interventionism is the right takeaway either. Of course most of this is out of our hands anyways and probably will be for a while if Semyonov has his way so ig this post is kind of immaterial lmao, but it's worth keeping in mind that the outcome of the crisis was the product of us directly staring France in the eye, openly flouting one of their major redlines, and daring them to do something about it, and that other conflicts are not / will not be nearly as charged as the Algerian situation even before we account for the usage of the various methods of maintaining deniability and/or a degree of separation to keep tensions down and prevent direct confrontations e.g. working through proxies.

[1] See below:
Flare-ups on the South African border have only intensified with the recent incursion of South African forces into both Rhodesia and Namibia to maintain the remnants of British colonialism and apartheid. Transfers of equipment to Angola along with some efforts for armaments have been authorized, but to a large extent, the fighting itself has been left to other powers. Troops from Korea have started to conduct large-scale transfers towards the theater to support local forces for the independence of Namibia, with a far better degree of UN recognition than most post-colonial conflicts. So far South African forces have maintained a relentless advance, but with the commitment of more mines and more equipment along with trained Korean troops, their gains are expected to be more than reversed. Even the Americans have come down as mostly neutral in the conflict, as the international consequences of supporting the Apartheid regime are almost certainly too much for most to bear.


[2] See below quote, I previously also cited this in my post on West Africa but citing it again just to be thorough:
With the tiedown of French forces elsewhere national movements for self-determination and sovereignty have taken center stage across West Africa. In Cameroon, the CNU has consolidated power strongly, eliminating old-french regime elements and decisively moving to exit the franc with a total repudiation of French debts. The Chadian civil war has steadily moved into its decisive phase with forces of FROLINAT expanding to tens of thousands of soldiers on a stream of Soviet arms while the French collaboration authorities have only weakened through Algerian commitments. Unhinging the Diori position in Niger has achieved little as the collaborationist government has limited available liberation forces through more comprehensive ties to France and a mining central economy. Local forces in Benin and Togo have been moved to reverse their collaborationist stance and start internal consolidation but little Soviet control or influence is available. Both dictators are expected to be anti-French but little else is known on their position.
 
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Even when we had the most dove guys we were shipping weapons to rebellions still so don't think it will stop at all, maybe just a repositioning to screw with a different France colony or maybe just fuck with South Africa?
 
Even when we had the most dove guys we were shipping weapons to rebellions still so don't think it will stop at all, maybe just a repositioning to screw with a different France colony or maybe just fuck with South Africa?

This always assume that the doves will remain the same instead of backing more "dovish" positions now that the hawks have been ousted.
Which honestly I would not necessarily assume if you read the tone of Blackstar and hypothesize that there are other hidden costs even for backing down.
 
I know we and CMEA have been intervening in places less tense than Algeria with success, but that was during a period of detente. The crisis happened right as the platonic ideal of Reaction got elected by the yankees and I was ready for the USN to try I-swear-its-not-blockading every USSR-friendly country in Africa any moment. I still don't trust we'll remain able to supply the conflicts elsewhere. Then again maybe Goldwater would have done that and Ashford is not so crazy. Ehh, we'll see. But I am mentally bracing for serious setbacks.

Speaking of Korea in South Africa, I'm curious what area are they operating in and what port are they supplying through?
 
I still don't trust we'll remain able to supply the conflicts elsewhere.
The Soviets did it just fine even during the height of the Cold War, I am not too worried about it to be quite honest. The US can't check every cargo ship going to every single place on earth, nor every truck carrying artillery shells under sacks of potatoes, even at its height as a hyperpower post Soviet collapse they couldn't stop their own companies from smuggling stuff to Sadam Hussein.
 
Why wouldn't we be able to supply weapons to rebellions it's a tactic that has been used for centuries and has been proven to work if done right.
 
If smuggling weaponry around blockades is so easy one wonders why France even bothered. Posturing for domestic consumption? Their own brass as deluded as we were? 4D chess hoping for the outcome we got except less dead French sailors?
 
We have word of QM it very much was not. We humiliated the French, but in the process we came across as unstable warmongerers to the rest of the world and made concessions on arms sales that will hamper the Algerians and make their genocide much more likely to continue. For the trade of a few French warships, it was not at all worth it.
30 years of being reliable allies and international partners, even to our geopolitical opponents. All jeopardized for the sake of a little brinkmanship that would only have accomplished would could easily have been done under the table anyways.

What's worse, With Ashbrook we already had an ideological anti-communist coming in on the States' side. I doubt we could have played into his narrative more.
 
Petroleum-derived products, basic HI inputs(steel/cement), cheaper/lower-end machinery, textiles/mass-manufactured consumer products, and some specialty equipment.

Wuff. Compare that to OTL where the USSR didn't produce much in the way of competitive manufactured goods and exported oil, gold and the rawest of raw materials.

I find the steel exports particularly interesting. Exporting steel to the US in this time frame is a bit like hearing that we have a thriving snow trade with the Inuit.

Also compare to OTL where Soviet steel production was dominated by bulk production of steel of such low quality that even Soviet enterprises didn't want to use it. Even if the TTL Soviet Union still outputs mostly low quality steels, for it to be worth buying for foreigners, its quality must be far better.

It also explains why we have such a colossal steel output - we're not just feeding our own demand, we're feeding a good portion of the rest of the world's demand too. Triple lapping the Americans would be alot easier if their steel industry were smaller due to competition with imports from us as well, so maybe our colossal output isn't quite so colossal as if we had triple lapped the OTL mid-70s USA.

If the pre-energy crisis USA is importing our steel, the French and British may not have any steel industries left. Or if they do have some, it'll be small smelters producing specialty steels. I'd bet the Japanese steel industry is much smaller as well. No demand from the Korean war, no damnfool thing in Indochina and competition with Soviet exports all means much less in the way of heavy industry in Japan. (Though since they somehow have an economy similar to OTL, despite the lack of particularly the Korean War, there must have been a more generous American approach to Japan to compensate... So maybe they do still have their excellent steel industry in this timeline also.)

Of course, as impressive as this is, we're exhausting our reserves of coal and iron ore, producing a low-margin intermediate product that we are then further subsidizing for our own internal development... This is great for the Americans in the long term.

Especially as, once our own iron ore becomes uneconomical, Morocco is the best place to import iron ore from, and you know, our political capital for messing around in North Africa took a recent nose-dive.

Now I'm imagining some politician giving some anti communist speech at a new military base while the army engineers that made it give him a look because a lot of the basic materials they used were from the USSR.

No kidding. This will certainly complicate Ashbrook's desired trade war. We may be so integral to certain sectors that a trade war would just mean importing the same things from us as before, only at higher prices, as we see in the current US-China trade war.

I wonder just how many of the weapons made in the Western bloc are made out of Soviet steel? Though probably our penetration of that market is far lower than, say, the much less sexy market for rebar. France and America might make their gun barrels from their own steel, but their bunkers, roads, buildings and airstrips might all use Soviet steel.

Klimenko was Romanov's second man, very very unlikely he gets past this crisis... he got a 51. I don't think that's enough for Semyonov to tolerate him after all that happened.

Given that Klimenko appears to be the most prominent hardliner and Romanov was a reluctant participant? He's probably going to get it from both sides.

The only way I can see for Klimenko to hang on is if Semyonov needs his help to push other hawks out of the nest, since despite Klimenko's prominence, he is scheduled to retire soon.

Yeah the doves screwed up, and the proletariat of the third world suffered for it.

What ARE you talking about?

Just what you think is going on in our foreign policy, and why?

If smuggling weaponry around blockades is so easy one wonders why France even bothered. Posturing for domestic consumption? Their own brass as deluded as we were? 4D chess hoping for the outcome we got except less dead French sailors?

My bet?

The French government had to do SOMETHING to satisfy their own internal hawks, so they picked something they probably thought looked tough and expected us to give them a symbolic win while just routing things through Egypt and leaving them in the same pickle against the unexpectedly tough Algerian resistance.

Instead we gave them complete and utter victory in return for a cruiser and some change, which we are re-imbursing them for.

Like, seriously, there are some very surprised Frenchmen wondering just HOW they got to be so lucky.

Personally I'm more inclined to push to make the next mnkh doves ministers fail starting from after the next one. (With dove I mean dove, not non hawk)

It will probably be needed to avoid problems with our block when we won't oppose Nato.

Oh yes, let's destabilize the economy so we can dabble more in foreign policy. That sounds absolutely big brain genius.

THE best thing we can do to maintain an aggressive foreign policy is provide the economic sinews so that the country can afford expensive adventures abroad.

Also, in the crises we've had the hawks have: believed our allies are stupid and our enemies are weak. And the doves have: believed our allies were at least minimally capable and our enemies are strong.

These perspectives then lead to different proposals for how to handle the enemies of the Union. But unless you have secret discordburo info, I don't see any of the characters arguing that the imperialist powers don't need to be opposed. Rather, they've been debating how much subtlety to approach problems with.

Regards,

fasquardon
 
Again don't see this as the end of helping out rebellions, could we be not be so doom and gloom about this crisis and figure out what to do instead of acting like it's all over?
 
(Though since they somehow have an economy similar to OTL, despite the lack of particularly the Korean War, there must have been a more generous American approach to Japan to compensate... So maybe they do still have their excellent steel industry in this timeline also.)
I mean of course the Americans will be more generous to Japan since they are the only Asian nation not under the USSR's influence.
 
And like, despite us directly arming guerillas in what France considers core territory, if we had chosen to arm them in a more deniable way (or hell, let Gaddafi missile a cruise ship or two lmao) then the entire nuclear war scare would have been averted, even if Soviet weapons continued to flow into Algeria in more or less the same volumes:
I think Blackstar nailed one thing very accurately:

People really did not get that to France this was not a colonial war, and did not want to get it.

It was explicitly brought up many times that the French, in this era, viewed Algeria as being an integral part of actual France. Each time, the response was along the lines of "don't care, it's not." Which is, yes, all very well, but does not change the reality of how the French would react. And yet it seemed for some that mentioning the fact that the French would think this way seemed almost to goad them into even more active denial of the relevance.

As though there was no separation in their minds between "the French feel this way about Algeria" and "the French are right to feel this way about Algeria," and that therefore to acknowledge that the French actually might do something rash and incredibly destructive if overtly challenged over Algeria by the Soviet Union itself would be to somehow legitimize the French claim.

It's not. It's really not. There are a lot of places and situations in the world where many countries have had to grit their teeth and say "I don't like this, but it involves a nuclear power and something they take very seriously, and this really, really isn't worth gambling on the expectation that hundreds of millions of people might die over an itchy trigger finger on this question.

That is a basic geopolitical reality of the modern world. Nuclear weapons create a reality where sometimes you really, really can't go to war, even if you feel incredibly righteous about doing so.

If smuggling weaponry around blockades is so easy one wonders why France even bothered. Posturing for domestic consumption? Their own brass as deluded as we were? 4D chess hoping for the outcome we got except less dead French sailors?
I would guess a combination of those first two factors (domestic posturing, deluded brass). Plus also the fact that smuggling arms to a rebellion is generally more complicated than just shipping them in by the freighter-load full and openly carrying them to the rebels. The French were probably trying, in part, to disrupt and complicate our efforts to ship arms to the rebels because they feared that those shipments would grow even larger and more ambitious given an uninterrupted shipping route.

(Though since they somehow have an economy similar to OTL, despite the lack of particularly the Korean War, there must have been a more generous American approach to Japan to compensate... So maybe they do still have their excellent steel industry in this timeline also.)
It seems likely that with a firmly Red Korea and (as I understand it) the total lack of a forward US position anywhere in continental Asia, successive US administrations have come to view Japan as the "front line," if not of an actual hot war in Korea, of the Cold War in general. As such, building up Japan's industrial base and making sure they don't become too enthused by or dependent on Soviet imports would be a high priority.

My bet?

The French government had to do SOMETHING to satisfy their own internal hawks, so they picked something they probably thought looked tough and expected us to give them a symbolic win while just routing things through Egypt and leaving them in the same pickle against the unexpectedly tough Algerian resistance.

Instead we gave them complete and utter victory in return for a cruiser and some change, which we are re-imbursing them for.

Like, seriously, there are some very surprised Frenchmen wondering just HOW they got to be so lucky.
To be fair, those same Frenchmen are wiping the sweat off their faces and going "Merde, we nearly ended up in a nuclear war with the Soviet Union!"
 
I'd bet the Japanese steel industry is much smaller as well. No demand from the Korean war, no damnfool thing in Indochina and competition with Soviet exports all means much less in the way of heavy industry in Japan. (Though since they somehow have an economy similar to OTL, despite the lack of particularly the Korean War, there must have been a more generous American approach to Japan to compensate... So maybe they do still have their excellent steel industry in this timeline also.)
Japan still got their excellent car industry, and with Germany in the CMEA they should dominate the US market.
Especially as, once our own iron ore becomes uneconomical, Morocco is the best place to import iron ore from, and you know, our political capital for messing around in North Africa took a recent nose-dive.
We ought to get them from China next, I think. Soviet Rust Belt, coming up on the new millennium?
What ARE you talking about?

Just what you think is going on in our foreign policy, and why?
He was talking abt the Algerian, dude!
 
It was explicitly brought up many times that the French, in this era, viewed Algeria as being an integral part of actual France.

I mean, the issue is that OTL, this isn't true. OTL, the French had already left Algeria by 1971. They left 10 years earlier. So clearly OTL that wasn't true in the end. Of course, what I imagine many people didn't appreciate was how near-run a thing the otl French withdrawal was and the headache and turmoil that went down around it in Internal French politics involving what was essentially an overthrow of the 4th Republic that went all kinds of screwy.

Of course, that's OTL. ATL, it's easy to see how all the different butterflies unleashed by our significantly different WW2 and Cold War has thrown all that overboard. I'm not well-versed on the details of the French-Algerian War, but one detail I do know is that DeGaulle's personal prestige was quite important - if not instrumental - in getting France to quit (and even then, he had to deal with plots against at his life and/or government over it). A personal prestige which, ATL, doesn't exist. DeGaulle is just one of a number of prominent generals who loyally continued to serve his country's government in exile through the war. That's a far cry from being the posterman for one of the very few Frenchmen to refuse to acquiesce or collaborate with the Nazis at their peak and continued to hurl defiance towards them even in 1940/41, when most French accepted the German occupation and still thought it was the Vichyites who represented the legitimate government of France.

He simply doesn't have the clout to do what he did OTL, even assuming his different position and experiences still have left him with a desire to do so. And that's just one example, the one I can name off the top of my head. I'm sure someone far more well-read on the subject could find many others.
 
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