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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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[X] [BELEGAR] Daemon and weakening
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen and Greater Daemon
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen, Daemon, and Mathilde's candidacy
 
HungryHamadryad said:
I'm tentatively inclined to agree, but my one concern would be what if the colleges end up finding out through the grapevine, via the Dwarves anyway? I don't think that's going to happen, but it would probably be a somewhat awkward conversation explaining why we felt it necessary to inform the Dwarves and not our boss.
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The easy answer is not to burden Belegar with that knowledge at all. The harder answer is that if we do tell him he's not going to gossip, just suffer in his inability to help.
 
SuperSonicSound said:
Now I'm perfectly fine with informing the colleges that an everchosen is coming, but that's sort of a bit 'Winter is coming' because it always is. I don't think it's harmful to do so.
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I mean kinda but not really? Yes, Chaos is always trying something thus the 'Winter is coming' bit, but to use your example, a normal winter and a Long Night are two vastly different events. Just like the potential of a new Everchosen is different from the usual 'Chaos is scheming and doing stuff.'

So at least getting the word around that a new Everchosen might be on the way and Chaos might be gathering strength to march south again would at least let the forces of order start to get ready for it.
 
Garlak said:
Yes yes not on our soul, I know I know. Perhaps I shouldn't have used that as a short-hand. Whatever.

We're not marked, we're... probably whitelisted as one person put it. But we can study that; we can study the effects on a person from having their name on a list somewhere.

The effects are "better casting when Tzeentchian magic's around (and possibly worse backfires if they happen? or something?)". Which... may not be studiable without going looking for Tzeentchian minor daemons to beat up, but... Well, you also could have Mathilde using magic around certain areas or peoples, and then seeing if Mathilde's magic gets stronger; if it does get stronger, that'd give you, I dunno, some actionable intelligence.

But there's other stuff they can do. I don't know because I don't know the full resources of the Colleges or the full mechanics of how everything works. For instance, Celestial magic is kind of a great big question because I think it was said "Well a lot of their spell effects are 'reroll a die' and how does that manifest in the world?" when Boney was complaining about that in an offhand post. "What's the fluff for the Portent of Amul spells? Nobody knows, it just says it affects rolls, and not much otherwise! Hooray!"

So, okay, let's say that the answer is that our name is on a whitelist somewhere. How does it identify us? Via "Aethyric Signature"? If so, how? Did the Daemons get a good look at our soul? Or at our magics? If it identifies us based on """Aethyric Signature""" or Magic Pixie Dust, can we come up with a spell to hide or distort the identification of our soul by this thing? Or can we use ourselves as a sympathetic link to figure out where tf the whitelist is? Or where similarly whitelisted people are?

The word "Fated" to me has certain implications. Of, well, causality or fate or Celestial magics. Azyr. If it's something like that, then maybe Azyr magic would be useful in understanding it. Or alternatively, maybe the Celestial College would get useful ideas or stuff from studying it.

Or maybe it's just "Fated" as a descriptor for "You're on Tzeentch's mind" and the word is only used because Tzeentch is associated with magic and fate, and it isn't intrinsically related to fate or Azyr per se. Weird but whatever. Still, we can try to do something with it, no?
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Why would Tzeentch let us do that? He's just willing his own magic/self to behave differently around us. Why would the Chaos God of Change always behave in the same way, and if he did, why would we ever believe that he wasn't just doing so as a long con to make us believe he was acting predictably so he could pull the rug out from under us when it was most amusing for him and painful for us?
AzrielIlluminare said:
I mean kinda but not really? Yes, Chaos is always trying something thus the 'Winter is coming' bit, but to use your example, a normal winter and a Long Night are two vastly different events. Just like the potential of a new Everchosen is different from the usual 'Chaos is scheming and doing stuff.'

So at least getting the word around that a new Everchosen might be on the way and Chaos might be gathering strength to march south again would at least let the forces of order start to get ready for it.
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There's always a new Everchosen on the way. As mentioned, there are two states:

An Everchosen is here.
An Everchosen is coming.

We don't have any particularly compelling information telling us when or where said new Everchosen will appear. Very likely because not even the Chaos Gods known where or when a Champion will complete their trials. Next year in Kislev is totally different to in century in Cathay, and demand totally different, and mostly contradictory responses.
 
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Alratan said:
Mathilde's room is sealed against external magic. They can't have observed it like that. And if a Chaos God is feeding them visions, they could have included accurate details on what Mathilde's room looked like from the inside anyway whether or not the other events shown were true or not.

There is no difference between what a false visions or a true vision of these events would look like to anyone save Mathilde. A chaotic attempt to frame her for something that never happened would be indistinguishable from a chaotic attempt to reveal what really happened, and everyone would know that.

Without Mathilde revealing this it's pretty much literally impossible for it to be revealed
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I may have mixed something up in your argument. Are you saying that Tzeentch can't credibly leak that he had contact with Mathilde or are you saying that Tzeentch can't credibly leak that he invited Mathilde to be the next Everchosen? Because it it is the latter then I agree with you, while if it is the former I technically disagree with you but ascribe that possibility so little weight as to be voting against disclosure anyway.
deathofrats0808 said:
I assumed the Grey College developed those spells because they lvie in a liminal realm, and so could study it to develop magic from it.

The Grey LMs had a bunch of explanations, most of which didn't mention Ulgu. A couple linked it to various gods, a couple to magical traditions or tricks, and only Algard and the Bursar specifically said it was Ulgu based.

No? The liminal realm in Laurelorn is the Dreaming Wood, and I don't recall a link to shadows or Ulgu. The one in the Forest of Shadows was IIRC, but I'm not sure that's becuase it's a liminal realm or because it's the Forest of Shadows already.
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Maybe the other Colleges could find ways to temporarily access the liminal realm to harm their enemies if only they had had a better chance at studying it. But somehow I doubt it. It seems much harder to fit into their paradigm. Maybe I could see it with Shyish.
Also, other magical traditions, like the Elves and the Kurgans, also have spells similar/equivalent to the aforementioned battle magic spells. And they use Ulgu to do it instead of something else. Like for example that one Grey Shaman we executed before he could get off a Pit of Shades.

Walther Kupfer said "It is the Shadows that give the Forest of Shadows its name, stolen by the Goddess Halétha to empower those who are opposed to it." And that is on top of Halétha being Ulgu-aligned, as evident by the fact that her rune (like that of Ranald and others) was carved on Mathilde's Staff of Mistery in order to make it more conductive. Melkoth's "existing principles" is very very vague, but given that he is an Ulgu researcher, I still attributed it to Ulgu.

The place that Drycha wanted to jump into in Kislev was also described as shadowy iirc. And Drycha herself is a known Ulgu user.
Boney said:
If Alric still had authority and reputation and allies and resources left, that might be true. But he doesn't. What he has is Mira looking extremely closely for any opportunity to tie up that loose end. The measures to prevent him from being a risk to the Empire if he betrays it are already in place.
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Got it. Alric has been almost completely neutered and all he could give to Chaos are his personal knowledge and spellcasting ability. And that only if he manages to, like, run away to Norsca or the steppes or something. Without Mira's spies noticing and sending in Vigilants to hunt him down anyway.

That's a relief. honestly.

I guess we'll congratulate Mira for her official election the next time she appears in a chapter.
HungryHamadryad said:
I'm tentatively inclined to agree, but my one concern would be what if the colleges end up finding out through the grapevine, via the Dwarves anyway? I don't think that's going to happen, but it would probably be a somewhat awkward conversation explaining why we felt it necessary to inform the Dwarves and not our boss.
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The Dwarves (will) know we stopped a Daemon from getting in. We felt it necessary because we were in their home, because we are more intimately familiar with Dwarven attitudes, abilities and priorities than anyone else in all the Colleges an because that's the kind of relationship we established with the local King, a relationship we want to maintain to the best of our ability. We did not tell our boss because we thought a Lady Magister in good standing having a miscast with the "Daemonic incursion" result which she then dealt with without said Daemon(s) ever stepping foot in reality wasn't something that needs to be shared with a Patriarch who knows how miscasts work.

That's how I would spin it at least.

And yes, this would have repercussions. But I don't think those repercussions would be much worse than the repercussions of telling them ourselves right now. So the risk-reward of it still seems to fall on the side of keeping silent.
 
[X] [BELEGAR] Daemon and weakening
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen, Daemon, and Mathilde's candidacy

Full disclosure and transparency is the antithesis of the bluebird's methodology.
 
Alratan said:
There's always a new Everchosen on the way. As mentioned, there are two states:

An Everchosen is here.
An Everchosen is coming.

We don't have any particularly compelling information telling us when or where said new Everchosen will appear. Very likely because not even the Chaos Gods known where or when a Champion will complete their trials.
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That is an incredibly reductive binary.
 
Garlak said:
Yes yes not on our soul, I know I know. Perhaps I shouldn't have used that as a short-hand. Whatever.

We're not marked, we're... probably whitelisted as one person put it. But we can study that; we can study the effects on a person from having their name on a list somewhere.

The effects are "better casting when Tzeentchian magic's around (and possibly worse backfires if they happen? or something?)". Which... may not be studiable without going looking for Tzeentchian minor daemons to beat up, but... Well, you also could have Mathilde using magic around certain areas or peoples, and then seeing if Mathilde's magic gets stronger; if it does get stronger, that'd give you, I dunno, some actionable intelligence.

But there's other stuff they can do. I don't know because I don't know the full resources of the Colleges or the full mechanics of how everything works. For instance, Celestial magic is kind of a great big question because I think it was said "Well a lot of their spell effects are 'reroll a die' and how does that manifest in the world?" when Boney was complaining about that in an offhand post. "What's the fluff for the Portent of Amul spells? Nobody knows, it just says it affects rolls, and not much otherwise! Hooray!"

So, okay, let's say that the answer is that our name is on a whitelist somewhere. How does it identify us? Via "Aethyric Signature"? If so, how? Did the Daemons get a good look at our soul? Or at our magics? If it identifies us based on """Aethyric Signature""" or Magic Pixie Dust, can we come up with a spell to hide or distort the identification of our soul by this thing? Or can we use ourselves as a sympathetic link to figure out where tf the whitelist is? Or where similarly whitelisted people are?

The word "Fated" to me has certain implications. Of, well, causality or fate or Celestial magics. Azyr. If it's something like that, then maybe Azyr magic would be useful in understanding it. Or alternatively, maybe the Celestial College would get useful ideas or stuff from studying it.

Or maybe it's just "Fated" as a descriptor for "You're on Tzeentch's mind" and the word is only used because Tzeentch is associated with magic and fate, and it isn't intrinsically related to fate or Azyr per se. Weird but whatever. Still, we can try to do something with it, no?
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Sure we can study that, all we need is someone to be kind enough to cast the lore of Tzeench near us. I'm sure the colleges will get right on providing that. :V

Trying to hide our soul from the God of Magic as a wizard is not in the cards IMO, it is so far not in the cards that the deck is in Lustria. We are the college expert on Divine Magic anyway most likely.
 
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Rafin said:
I may have mixed something up in your argument. Are you saying that Tzeentch can't credibly leak that he had contact with Mathilde or are you saying that Tzeentch can't credibly leak that he invited Mathilde to be the next Everchosen? Because it it is the latter then I agree with you, while if it is the former I technically disagree with you but ascribe that possibility so little weight as to be voting against disclosure anyway.
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I'm saying that it's impossible to credibly reveal either the fact that the daemon contacted her or the contents of that communication. It might be possible for other people to learn from separate sources that Mathilde is an Everchosen candidate, but it makes no difference that this happened to the possibility of that occuring.

We don't even know for sure IC that a greater daemon of Tzeentch did contact Mathilde. For all she knows this was a daemon of Slaneesh playing to her vaniglory, or a more minor daemon of chaos undivided such as a Fury winding her up for the lulz. Mathilde can't even prove that this occurred, and she was there.
 
Adhoc vote count started by Rafin on Dec 16, 2022 at 8:47 AM, finished with 375 posts and 141 votes.
[belegar] [college] [x]
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Given the current tally, I believe that it would make sense if those who are currently voting exclusively for Nothing start thinking about approval voting for one of the Less Than Everything options.

Anyway, I'm off for now.
 
[X] [BELEGAR] Greater Daemon
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen and Greater Daemon
[X] [BELEGAR] Nothing
[X] [COLLEGE] Nothing
 
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Rafin said:
Adhoc vote count started by Rafin on Dec 16, 2022 at 8:47 AM, finished with 375 posts and 141 votes.
[belegar] [college] [x]
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Given the current tally, I believe that it would make sense if those who are currently voting exclusively for Nothing start thinking about approval voting for one of the Less Than Everything options.

Anyway, I'm off for now.
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I do not think I will go for the lesser evil yet. It will dilute my preferred vote a few hours into the voting period and I trust the thread not to go with the worst of all worlds. If that option gains a lead I'll add in one of the less extreme tell options.
 
[X] [BELEGAR] Daemon and weakening
[X] [COLLEGE] Everchosen and Greater Daemon

I want to do some quests to reassure the dawi that Mathilde is still trustworthy.
 
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Alratan said:
It is. And that's because we have no extra information that expands that binary. Without information about where or when the Everchosen might occur, or how progressed the competition to become the next one is, all we can say is that we're in the later situation.
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And even if one assumes that a thousand augurs looking in the guts of a thousand dead chickens can somehow add up to a meaningful answer Chaos can just change the answer if we seem too prepared. This is not predicting the weather, it's enemy action which means they can see us preparing for them.
 
Rafin said:
Given the current tally, I believe that it would make sense if those who are currently voting exclusively for Nothing start thinking about approval voting for one of the Less Than Everything options.
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This is probably going to be the way it goes, but this is a little to early in the vote for tactical voting in my opinion -it has only been 6 hours since the vote opened. Approval voting so early for options you don't actually like will make their already large lead even larger, which will lead to others who don't want to see them approval voting for similar reasons.
 
Alratan said:
It is. And that's because we have no extra information that expands that binary. Without information about where or when the Everchosen might occur, or how progressed the competition to become the next one is, all we can say is that we're in the later situation.
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"I can't draw a conclusion from this data point, therefore it's useless data" is something no researcher has ever said. If you can't draw a conclusion you get more data. And here's the thing, right—getting more data isn't Mathilde's job. It's not her responsibility. It's her job to pass on that data to someone else who does have that responsibility.

"A powerful and trusted wizard had a miscast, weakening reality in that location, and through that weak spot an entity self-identifying as a Lord of Change told them that an unknown number of Chaos Champions have begun competing for the title of the Thirteenth Everchosen" is a valuable data point to someone within the Empire's intelligence apparatus.

For a start, it tells them that a champion hasn't been chosen yet, and it allows them assign context to the actions of known chaos threats. Two cults tearing each other apart is no longer the "inherent self-destructive nature of Chaos" but two candidates attempting to subdue each other for the favour of their Gods. A raid between Kurgan tribes witnessed by a passing merchant might be about cattle or silver or slaves—or it might be a sign that a powerful leader is attempting unite warriors under their banner through a series of quick military victories, and when they reach a tipping point they are going to start raiding into Kislev.

And if the frequency of reports about the activities of champions, and portents about their behaviour, rises, then that suggests they are becoming bolder, and maybe more desperate, as they receive more blessings and the number of competitors goes down.
 
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