[X] [Kyberi] 1 PW - Send in proper negotiators and scholars to sort it all out (-1 Temp Happiness, +1 Temp Consciousness, situation resolved, ???)
[X] [Crisis] 0 PW - Remain neutral and watch (-1 Temp Trust)
[X] [Crisis] 1 PW - Send aid to the Kielmyr (-1 temp SoL, +1 Temp Trust)
Furthermore we should look to strengthen ties with the Hung as soon as our land borders touch, they seem more than willing to be allied with us and I would not trade up an alliance, friendship or cordial relationship with what could be either the strongest industrial power or an area of interest to exploit should they follow China's fall in the 19th and 20th centuries. Furthermore the more we gain favour with them they may be willing to let us attack Nohon who they have as a tributary.
Nohon is not a tributary of Hung.
The Pacific ocean is not a shiny it is something more than that, it gives us unrestricted access to trade with Mahaxia rather than having to source goods from there through Nohon ports (and all the tariffs and charges that would occur for our eastern Kyberian provinces) or waiting for ships to cross the Monsoon Sea (which in wartime presents an extra risk).
Furthermore, as I've mentioned claiming the Kyberian land allows us to develop it a lot earlier and more intensely than Russian did ala the American Midwest and Pacific when they manifest destinied the NA continent. When we do that it will lessen the problems we will face in the future with regards to moving troops and building infrastructure in the area. Do note that it was Russian in WW2 that had Japan on the backfoot and nervous, not the other way around.
The Japanese were nervous about the Russians at the close of World War II because the Americans had just nuked them and the Russians were fighting them on a single front, because the Nazis had already fallen.
The only other time the Japanese fought the Russians, they won.
As I've mentioned and I'm sure many others like you and myself war with Nihon is not necessary immediately we can wait until we get trains and develop Kyberia but what I want to note is that Geography ultimately defines Geopolitics. The fact that we occupy a relatively similar position to Russia means we must adopt a relatively similar Geostrategic outlook. Look throughout history and you will see how often geography can help define relationships between nations. The constant wars between the Romans and the Persians over the fertile crescent. If those lands were all mountains the wars would have been no doubt less numerous. The German diplomacy of the 19th and 20th century advocated neutralising France and Russia as enemies either through diplomacy or preemptive wars as the northern European plain meant that those powers if allied could run roughshod over Germany as there was little in the way in terms of natural barriers. I wouldn't demean those who advocate policy based on the Russians who occupy a similar position to us. We whilst securing what they could not (in terms of warm water ports) should not rest on our laurels and should consistently strengthen our hand. The Hung and the Black Sheep represent potential good allies for us in the east and we should look to promote them as allies whilst also guarding our interests.
Boats cannot walk on land, once we've secured Kyberia from Nihon in the future they will be highly unlikely to be able to take the land back, especially as we settle the area and develop it. An alliance with the Hung and if necessary sharing naval technology with them will allow us in the future to counter the Nihon, especially as it is likely the Hung will want not!Korea.
We would not use our Baltic and Black Sea navies to fight Nihon, we would use our Monsoon and Pacific fleets if we wanted to engage them. And again we wouldn't enter the wars alone, anyone who enters into a fight without the odds stacked in their favour is a fool. So if we're going to fight Nihon we secure our western borders diplomatically, develop Kyberia, isolate Nihon from Hung, assist the Hung in a naval program and then we fight.
OTL, Russia had essentially no competition for Eastern Siberia. There was nobody there. Japan had cloistered itself from the world, China was focused inward, and Korea was too small to do any colonizing when it wasn't being subjugated by the Chinese. There were no established colonies to capture, there was no nation to struggle against, and the pre-existing cultures were not strong enough to effectively resist assimilation or subjugation.
In this timeline, the only one of those statements that's still true is that Korea's being ruled by someone else.
Once we reach the Nohon, any gains we make by force will be marginal and come at great cost. Nohon is an internationally involved world power that is taking modern armaments and technological advances seriously, possibly more seriously than we are. We'd be fighting them at the other end of the globe, which would be hell on our supply lines, even if we do get a railroad network there, and we'd be fighting a peer power. Victory would be decidedly uncertain, to say nothing of actually acquiring the territory we want.
Supposing that we did somehow win and take the Nohon Siberian colonies, we'd be faced with integration issues, because those colonies will be well-established by the time taking them becomes an option. We'd then have to grapple with assimilating an entirely different culture separated from our heartland by thousands of miles of wilderness. While the parent country is right next door and has a grudge against us.
Copying Russia's strategy is not going to work for us. Our geography is different, our goals are different, and our neighbors are different.
