AN: Alright, let's do this official-like.
BTW, am I the only one that has noticed we don't have Maretonia listed in our diplomatic relations?
Title: Analysis over the matter of assassination of the late queen Mareia of Maretonia.
1. What we know is that queen Mareia was assassinated using a poison that
supposedly only grows naturally within the borders of Canterburry.
2. Immediately after this assassination, a great power struggle ensued that split the kingdom into four primary factions.
3. Of those factions,
three would have the motive to orchestrate the assassination: the Abolitionists, House White Star and House Storm. The Royal Guard will likely sign up with anyone fighting against the culprit of the plot.
4. Maretonia has hostile diplomatic relations with two nations of what we know of, with unknown southern neighbors: Griffonia and Canterbury. They have/had trading relations with the Minotaur Republics.
5. House Storm is located more in the western parts of Maretonia (including the border with Canterbury), whereas House White Star holds the eastern side (with the port cities). Abolitionists hold the northern borders and few exclaves and enclaves
6. Both Houses are apparently looking for the winning ace to turn the balance of power to their favor. House White Star is looking at their unicorn mage hermits while House Storm is planning some kind of vague great plan.
7. Most of the Royal Guard defectors have joined House Storm's forces.
8. Changelings exist
Now, from this information, I - well,
we - can create multiple potential results.
Let's start with the poison's origins.
Hypothesis 1: the assassination was put into action by someone within Canterburry.
A clear possibility, but not a certainty. The difficulty of maretonians getting their hooves to this particular poison could suggest the assassin had a easier source at hand.
This strain of thought can be further split to two side-paths:
Possibility 1A: The assassination was enacted with the full backing of the royals of Canterbury.
Possibility 1B: The assassination was done without permission or foreknowledge of the royals of Canterbury.
Possibility 1C: The assassination was done by the orders of an unknown faction within Canterbury borders and/or society.
In the case of
1A, Queen Chevaline might've seen some kind of great catastrophe striking her people if Queen Mareia still lived. A diversionary campaign to get new slaves could be a possible reason: get the nobles of Maretonia to strike at something not as dangerous as Griffonia while filling the Empire's slave needs with good ol' pony power.
Even if this could be construed as dishonorable, all royalty has a duty to their kingdom, their people and their family (Order of priorities may differ) that might force their hands.
That being said, would the queen of Canterbury do something such as this, knowing that their new neighbors (Griffonia) was both (overall) honorable and would most likely defend Canterburry from unwarranted aggression?
Given the situation, I find it unlikely she would do so, since Canterbury with home-field advantage in a defensive war and Griffonia opening up a second, wide front for Maretonia to deal with...
It would be such a horrifying mess for Maretonia to handle, to the point they would likely lose the ensuing war(s).
1B is also something to consider: there must be one or more noble house in Canterbury that feels hatred toward their dishonorable neighbors to the point their own honor might slip.
However, there is an issue with this:
why Queen Mareia?
House Storm is the closest thing to a martial leader among Maretonia. If there was a target for Canterburian noble to latch on, it would be the closer by, direct miltary threat: Duke of Mare-A-Thon Pegicles himself.
Further, how could a simple noble house - or even a hidden coalition of nobles houses - in Canterbury have the reach to infiltrate Maretonia to the point their reach extended to Queen Mareia herself?
It feels bizarre to think there could be some kind of super-spy noble spy ring that manages to do all this without the support of their royal house. The target doesn't match the aim of such endeavor either, as their rage would likely be directed at House Storm before any other in Maretonia.
Possible? Maybe.
Likely? No.
1C would fit some kind of dark mage expy, Merlin's darker mirror or something that wants to see Maretonia fall. However, this option doesn't leave us with a lot to debate over: we don't even known if this hypothetical spellcaster exist. So unless we receive new information that supports their existence, this is just a hypothetical person that likely doesn't exist or at the very least hadn't anything to do with the assassination.
In effect, it's a random, empty hypothesis that I had to name but will immediately discard.
Hypothesis 2: the poison was somehow traded to Griffonia
Possibility 2A: The assassination was done by the orders of some Griffonian noble house or other group.
... Why use
that poison in particular?
How did they manage to get their network of infiltration to reach Mareia?
Where did their get their support to do this?
The same problems as with Canterbury nobles repeat themselves here, with only the targeting being a tad more understandable.
While we could point at the old Aquilean advisers wherever they are hiding, it feels an odd place for them to return to the game, so to speak. This action seems to have helped -, not hindered us.
Hypothesis 3: the poison was imported, stolen or otherwise smuggled to Maretonia.
To me, this possibility is the most likely. Maretonia is Canterbury's neighbor, even if a hostile one. They've had history of slave raids with Canterbury and it wouldn't be impossible that either through these raids, smugglers or via careful infiltration by someone from Maretonia, they could get their hooves on the flowers.
Possibility 3A: The poisoner was an Abolitionist.
Possibility 3B: The poisoner was from House White Star.
Possibility 3C: The poisoner was from House Storm.
3A: a simple possibility being that a person fighting for the cause of abolition could've come up with the idea of sending Maretonia into chaos, leading to the potential rise of a revolution to bring freedom to the enslaved.
It sounds good in theory... but the poison chosen opens up a question.
Why use this particular poison? You can't just get a bottle of "Kill-A-Queen" from the medieval thrift store, but this particular type is even harder to get your hooves on.
And who is this sympathizer that they managed to get to the queen herself?
Once again, the point returns to resources and influence required for these goals to be achievable.
3B: White Star is noted for being the ones better focused on intrigue. They have the merchant connections to potentially have smugglers willing to dare Canterbury justice for a prize, so they could potentially get their hooves on the poison.
They would have the reach, resources and motive to take the queen out. Using that particular flower could be just a costly smokescreen to obscure the responsible party
Yet, I feel the next option is actually more likely.
3C.
House Storm.
The House bordering Canterbury. Supporter of slaving raids and conquering of "barbarian" tribes.
One who has the total control of his lands, the most royal guard defectors in his ranks and apparently has a very good anti-intrigue system in place.
Even if his specialty is in the martial sign of things, this doesn't mean he couldn't be without skills in subterfuge. A true general understands that war isn't without its hidden fronts.
Thus, the poison choice can also become a crucial hint.
The royal guards of Mareia will join the likeliest person to bring justice for the death of the queen.
If the poison can be "proven" to be only found only in Canterbury...
Who do you believe the guard will turn to in hopes of exacting justice?
This could also be the plan the Pegicles was hinting at: reveal that they have studied "evidence", happily supplied by
certain defectors, and push the blame onto Canterbury.
Point out that House Storm is the one with the best shot in actually bringing war to the "guilty".
And then, watch as House Storm blooms with the addition of the disciplined core of royal guards and the capital city of Maretonia submitting without a fight.
After the civil war is settled, turn the now unified war-machine at Canterbury and finish off one of their strongest rivals, swiftly and decisively, using the poison excuse to deflect claims of unprovoked war. Considering how they've been next to Canterbury for so long, I would likely think Pegicles also feels slighted that there is a neighbor so close that have been rebuffing his expansion. He might also have bad blood specifically with the kingdom after the border war between the two kingdoms.
A devious plan. I see it as a high possibility.
Of course, they might've not planned on using Canterbury as a scapegoat at all and just used what was available for them.
Hypothesis 4: The culprit is from the southern neighbor we haven't met yet.
Possible I suppose, but... We really have nothing to base this on.
Hypothesis 5: changelings.
If we start blaming them every time something intrigue-related happens...
In the end, I believe the likeliest truth is this:
Final theory: the poisoner worked for House Storm, likely one or more of the royal guards to defect to them after the queen's death.
Their likely end-game will be to blame Canterbury for the death of Queen Mareia and use this to assimilate the royal guards into their ranks, use this force to subjugate House White Star,then turn the now loyal and strongly unified command structure onto their weaker neighbor, either using diplomatic means in hopes of keeping Griffonia separate from the ensuing war as they would be retaliating against Canterburian aggression, or also blaming Griffonia as Canterbury's "obvious allies", believing that Maretonia led by him could take on both rivals at once.
