Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

[Fayhem]

More seriously:

@BoneyM I'm not clear on why Max would need to be in the steam wagon for Law of Logic. The description of the spell that I'm familiar with is this one:

Law of Logic
- Uses the magic of logic to aid one task. The alchemist must cast this spell before the attempt is taken, and the spell can aid either them or a nearby ally. The boon must be used within five minutes of the spell's completion.

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It does say the caster has to be nearby to cast it on someone, but it also says the recipient has a five minute window to use it. Is the issue that Max couldn't get out of the steam wagon fast enough after casting it? Is the DL version of the spell just different? Or am I missing something?

 

[maybem]

So I was curious as to the probability of all 5 wagons making it back on the return trip.

I'm assuming we don't figure something clever out and it's just doing the same thing we did here, and assuming that the consequences of the almost-failure roll (currently at 2) is that the failure threshold bumps up by 1 and the almost-failure threshold increases by one (i.e., rolling a 2 means our next wagons need to make a 3-6 to pass, and on a 3 it gets worse again, and if we roll a 2 and then a 3 then the next wagon needs to make a 4-6 to pass, and on a 4 it gets worse again). These are fairly large assumptions but I think they're reasonable enough.

Spoiler: a lot of math

For clarity, each outer layer bullet point is going to be "what's the probability that all the wagons make it, if the whatever-th wagon is the first one to roll a 2", so we're then going to add up all the probabilities in each of the outer bullet points to achieve the overall probability that all 5 wagons make it.

• The probability that we roll between 3 and 6 for our first four wagons and then between 2 and 6 on the last (for the last wagon, worsening the roll is unimportant) is (4/6)^4 * 5/6 = 40/243.
• The probability that we roll 3-6 for our first three wagons, then a 2 on our fourth, worsening the path, then anywhere from 3-6 on the last (again, it doesn't matter if we roll a 3 and worsen the path on our last wagon, since I assume we're not coming back this way without supplies or a plan for this stretch) is (4/6)^3 * 1/6 * 4/6 = 8/243.
• The probability we roll 3-6 for our first two wagons, a 2 on our third, and then EITHER 4-6 on our 4th and 3-6 on our 5th OR a 3 on our 4th and a 4-6 on our last, is (4/6)^2 * 1/6 * (3/6 * 4/6 + 1/6 * 3/6) = 5/162.
• This is going to start getting annoyingly recursive. The probability we roll a 3-6 for the first wagon, and a 2 on the second is 4/6 * 1/6. Then we're going to multiply this by the total probability of whatever happens later, which I'll make a sublist for
  • The probability that, having done the above two already, then rolling 4-6 on the third and fourth wagons and a 3-6 on the last is (3/6)^2 * 4/6.
  • The probability of rolling 4-6 on the third wagon, a 3 on the fourth, and a 4-6 on the fifth wagon is 3/6 * 1/6 * 3/6.
  • The probability of rolling a 3 on the third wagon, and then EITHER 5-6 on the fourth wagon and a 4-6 on the fifth OR a 4 on the fourth wagon and a 5-6 on the fifth is 1/6 * (2/6 * 3/6 + 1/6 * 2/6).
  • This makes the total probability for rolling our first 2 on the second wagon as 4/6 * 1/6 * ( (3/6)^2 * 4/6 + 3/6 * 1/6 * 3/6 + 1/6 * (2/6 * 3/6 + 1/6 * 2/6) ) = 53/1944.
• This last one is the longest by far. The probability we roll a 2 on the first wagon is 1/6.
  • The probability we then roll 4-6 on the second, third, and fourth wagons and a 3-6 on the last wagon is (3/6)^3 * 4/6.
  • The probability we roll 4-6 on the second and third wagons, a 3 on the fourth, and a 4-6 on the last is (3/6)^2 * 1/6 * 3/6.
  • The probability we roll 4-6 on the second wagon, a 3 on the third, and then EITHER 5-6 on the fourth and 4-6 on the fifth OR 4 on the fourth and 5-6 on the fifth is (3/6) * 1/6 * (2/6 * 3/6 + 1/6 * 2/6).
  • The probability we roll a 3 on the second wagon is 1/6, and then
    • The probability we then roll 5-6 on the third and fourth wagons, and then a 4-6 on the fifth is (2/6)^2 * 3/6.
    • The probability we then roll 5-6 on the third wagon, 4 on the fourth wagon, and then 5-6 on the fifth wagon is 2/6 * 1/6 * 2/6.
    • The probability we roll a 4 on the third wagon, then EITHER a 6 on the fourth and 5-6 on the fifth OR a 5 on the fourth and a 6 on the fifth, is 1/6 * (1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6 * 1/6).
    • The total probability of rolling a 3 on the second wagon is then 1/6 * ((2/6)^2 * 3/6 + 2/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6 * (1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6 * 1/6)).
  • The total probability of rolling a 2 on the first wagon (and then all the subsequent wagons making it one way or another) then, is 1/6 ( (3/6)^3 * 4/6 + (3/6)^2 * 1/6 * 3/6 + 3/6 * 1/6 * (2/6 * 3/6 + 1/6 * 2/6) + 1/6 * ((2/6)^2 * 3/6 + 2/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6 * (1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6 * 1/6))) = 89/3888.
• This makes the total probability of all five of the above cases 40/243 + 8/243 + 5/162 + 53/1944 + 89/3888 = 361/1296 = ~27.9%.

In short, the probability that all five wagons make it back when we come around again (given the assumptions above about nothing significant changing in our circumstances, and in the exact mechanics of how those rolls worked), is a little less than 30%.

(Its totally possible that like, rolling a 2 means the road crumbles behind the wagon and the road simply becomes impassable for the wagons behind, or whatever, so to stress again this is all pure speculation.)

 

[Deathbybunnies]

More seriously:

@BoneyM I'm not clear on why Max would need to be in the steam wagon for Law of Logic. The description of the spell that I'm familiar with is this one:

It does say the caster has to be nearby to cast it on someone, but it also says the recipient has a five minute window to use it. Is the issue that Max couldn't get out of the steam wagon fast enough after casting it? Is the DL version of the spell just different? Or am I missing something?

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Max would cast it on himself and give advice. You can't be casting magic on dwarves. But the point is moot as unless the driver really screwed up the danger was the ground giving out regardless of their driving skills, which Law of Logic wouldn't help with.

 

[SaltyWaffles]

With these numbers, unless we can find a way to make the crossing safer on the return trip, we might have to take the long way back. 1 in 6 chance of falling and a further 1 in 6 of making the chance higher for the rest means we're very likely to lose at least one Wagon if we have to cross with all 5.

For the rest- I'm thinking Rite of Way up to moderately difficult terrain, and meeting with the Dolgan is nearly a necessity.

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It may also be possible that we simply won't need to get all of the wagons to survive that part of the return trip. We're going to be traveling lighter on the return trip (unless we're carrying portable, precious artifacts or records from Karag Dum, or survivors); so we unload them and take each one across with just three people (with Deathfang on hand to rescue at least one of them should there be a fall); the ones that survive will be used to carry the food/water needed to make the return journey to at least a friendly town/Praag.

It'll be difficult, to be sure, and we may end up having to just take the long way around.

 

[Fayhem]

Max would cast it on himself and give advice. You can't be casting magic on dwarves.

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Oh, right. Yes. That makes sense.

 

[vsh]

Approval voting. I think that stealing a chaos artifact is a valid action now, and that scouting is a worthy action to take too.

[x] Ice Crone Ljiljana
[x] Scouting near the convoy
[x] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[x] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Yusak
[x] Attempt to steal the Chaos artefact with Ljiljana

 

[Chiperninerm]

[x] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[x] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[x] Attempt to steal the Chaos artefact with Ljiljana

 

[Guisarme]

[X] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[X] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[X] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[X] Ranging far ahead of the convoy

 

[Fayhem]

Anyway, I should actually vote.

Like a lot of people, I want to use RoW to smooth our path over the roughest patches bc avoiding mechanical failures good. Especially now that our chief engineer is tragically lost. Contacting the Dolgan to lock down our food supply, also good. Contacting the Yusak could give us a better read on the situation ahead, possibly even past the Yusak themselves depending on what they know and may be willing to share. And given I argued for scouting last time, I haven't changed my view on that now.

I do want to definitely strongly argue against yoinking the artefact now, though. As I see it, our worst-case scenario for not grabbing it now would be that it somehow gets used against the Expedition. But if that was likely then I think Ljiljana would have brought it up; hard to see how that would do anything but make Mathilde more enthusiastic about grabbing it and doing so sooner, and given that this is The Thing That Ljiljana Cares About I don't think she'd have been holding off on mentioning it so that we could focus on the Expedition. So our worst-case plausible scenario (IMO) is that we don't get a chance to grab it on the way back, meaning we'd return to the Ice Witches empty-handed and still owing them a debt. Not a comfortable position to be in, but tbh I'm confident in Mathilde's ability to ultimately weather it.

Whereas, the worst-case scenario for grabbing it now is it a) pisses off the tribe we steal it from, which might be the Dolgan we're trying to buy food from and whose territory we're about to ride squarely through, and/or b) is something that can attract worshippers and creatures of Chaos to try to seize/recover it and we'd be carrying it with us right into the actual literal Chaos Wastes, holding up the magical equivalent of a beacon fire to everything Chaos-y in the vicinity as we ride into Chaos's front yard. IMO that's worse than even the worst-case scenario I discarded for the other choice, much less the one I think is more plausible.

[x] Ranging far ahead of the convoy
[x] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Yusak

 

[Klaus]

[X] Ranging far ahead of the convoy
- With the Knights of Taal's Fury

[X] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[X] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[X] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan


Scouting reduces risk, with no particular gain.
Yusak increases potential gains and risks.

Let's not have our reach exceed our grasp. Whatever might be possible with the Yusak, we've more than stretched our ability to soak up unexpected changes. Any gains would probably be complicated, difficult and/or expensive.


Eliminating risk is more important than maximizing returns.

 

[Kinruush]

[X] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[X] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[X] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[X] Ranging far ahead of the convoy

 

[Gamefreak1ed]

[x] Ranging far ahead of the convoy
[x] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[x] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan

 

[Valmond]

One of the strengths of the thread is that it is full of clever people who will find out clever ways to solve problems.
One of the weaknesses of the thread is that it is full of clever people who will keep finding clever ways to solve problems even once told that no, they can't.

 

[K von Carstein]

[X] Thane Borek Forkbeard
[X] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[X] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[X] Ice Crone Ljiljana

 

[Kinruush]

Scouting reduces risk, with no particular gain.
Yusak increases potential gains and risks.

Let's not have our reach exceed our grasp. Whatever might be possible with the Yusak, we've more than stretched our ability to soak up unexpected changes. Any gains would probably be complicated, difficult and/or expensive.

Click to shrink...

Contacting the Yusak isn't necessarily just about gains. By contacting them before the convoy gets there, we have the opportunity to determine our relationship with them before the convoy gets there and potentially to outright decide what that relationship might be.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

[x] Ranging far ahead of the convoy
[x] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Yusak

 

[Varano]

[X] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[X] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[X] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[X] Ranging far ahead of the convoy

 

[King Arthur]

It'd also just be a nifty idea in general for when we are working with Dawi.

Imagine starting off, say, the invasion of Karak Drazh, by sneaking explosives into a ton of key positions beforehand.

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This is out of nowhere, but as much as I never want to get into a fair close range fight with any of the serious melee monsters .... Gorfang Rotgut, the king of Karak Drazk, seems like a big character that's made for us to take down.

He's a notably massive Orc, I heard him get compared to the size of Ogre once, and he has incredibly thick metal armor.

This is good for us because it means he's slow, and this is held up in the fluff. I haven't read all of his fights, but he doesn't really seem concerned with blocking or dodging, he'll just tank a lot of blows and laugh them off because his armour is real thick.

Strength 10 Greatsword that makes magic stuff stop working (I think his armor is magic in tabletop but not magic in fluff?), combined with the firebreath that makes whole trees down to their roots just stop existing, is a pretty fantastic match up against the guy who doesn't block or dodge and is pretty darn hard to miss.

He also, I think, has just a regular weapon. I don't think it's magic or gromil or anything, I think he's used, on separate occasions, a sword and a club and the sword can be shattered by Dwarven weapons, so there might be a decent chance of our sword just breaking his weapon if it comes to that.

Finally .... his army should be weaker then in canon due to him not have his alliance with Skarsnik that gets him Night Goblin troops.

Of course, this is assuming that nothing has changes from canon, and considering he only came into power after we took over K8P .... could easily be some serious differences.

 

[Boney]

Lazy git. Did Borek not feel like paying for aerial recon?

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A dragon sends a very powerful message. Unfortunately, in this part of the world that message is "this way to an AWESOME FIGHT".

How would that work if we wanted to bring Johann with us on potential diplomatic actions? There isn't a [] Write-in option.

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@BoneyM

Could we bring Johann with us to talk with the Dolgan and/or the Yusak?

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You can still write it in.

More seriously:

@BoneyM I'm not clear on why Max would need to be in the steam wagon for Law of Logic. The description of the spell that I'm familiar with is this one:

It does say the caster has to be nearby to cast it on someone, but it also says the recipient has a five minute window to use it. Is the issue that Max couldn't get out of the steam wagon fast enough after casting it? Is the DL version of the spell just different? Or am I missing something?

Click to shrink...

Magic in Dwarven brainmeats is a bad time.

 

[BeepSmile]

One of the strengths of the thread is that it is full of clever people who will find out clever ways to solve problems.
One of the weaknesses of the thread is that it is full of clever people who will keep finding clever ways to solve problems even once told that no, they can't.

Click to shrink...

Hey kid, have you tried powergaming?

...

<.<
>.>

Do ya wanna?

 

[Byzantine]

This is out of nowhere, but as much as I never want to get into a fair close range fight with any of the serious melee monsters .... Gorfang Rotgut, the king of Karak Drazk, seems like a big character that's made for us to take down.

Click to shrink...

Have we gotten confirmation he's actually the ruler of drazk? Given everything that's happened in the area butterflies have been making hurricanes.

 

[masterofmadness]

[x] Ranging far ahead of the convoy
[x] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Yusak

 

[DragonParadox]

[x] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[x] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[x] Attempt to make contact with the Yusak

 

[ReImagined]

Have we gotten confirmation he's actually the ruler of drazk? Given everything that's happened in the area butterflies have been making hurricanes.

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"Since we now know for sure that Birdmuncha is dead, I've had my Rangers prodding Karak Drazh to get the name of their new Warboss. Apparently they now answer to Warboss Gorfang the Hungry, which according to captured Skaven intelligence," he pauses as he grimaces at the thought, "was the Big Boss in charge of the Red Fang's Underway front before the Battle of the Caldera."

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Unless they just happen to share a name, yep.

 

[defenestrator]

[X] Use Rite of Way for the worst patches of rough terrain
[X] Use Rite of Way for the moderately difficult ground
[X] Attempt to make contact with the Dolgan
[X] Ranging far ahead of the convoy

BTW, wasn't Asarnil's personal tent on top of the Urmskaladrak? Does that mean he lost most of his stuff?