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I notice folks talking about the NCR just being assumed to conquer Cascadia in the course of their initial uprising (the one they need to absolutely sweep in order to deny Alexander a plausible opportunity to intervene), and folks

no.

Cali touches Cascadia, they've just brought Imperial Japan into things, and Imperial Japan has both the fleet assets already in the theater to respond quickly and with great force, and a tenuous enough position that they cannot afford not to. If the NCR touches Cascadia, they are now at open war with the Empire of Japan and then Russia in very quick succession, and nobody is prepared to help them with that, not yet. Russia can be positioned in such a way that it cannot respond militarily to an encroachment upon its assets. Japan cannot be.

Okay, I must have been running on bad assumptions. I remembered the quote that Japan was the Italy of the Russosphere, I remembered their performance during the first Cascadia uprising, and I thought they were almost obscenely overstretched due to their tendency to invade everywhere.

My underlying assumption was that Japan had far more colonial conquests than fleet assets because of their lack of self-control. So their fleet assets would be forced to move from theater to theater to deal with threats, because if China is concentrating ships and aircraft in the South China Sea, Japan also needs to concentrate their assets to show the Chinese that they're ready. I thought that the NCR could hit while Japan was distracted elsewhere, then present the Japanese with a situation where they would have to stage across the Pacific to counterattack, with their local fleet bases already lost and all of Cascadia in arms against them.

Japan focuses on China, the NCR moves on Cascadia. Japan focuses on the NCR, China moves on South Korea. This idea could be wrong- there can be things that I'm not taking into account- but the assumption is that Japan is vastly overextended, and any attempt to commit to one front creates opportunities on other fronts. If Carrier Task Force Yamamoto is near Cascadia, it isn't in the South China Sea; if it is in the South China Sea, it isn't near Cascadia.
 
Okay, I must have been running on bad assumptions. I remembered the quote that Japan was the Italy of the Russosphere, I remembered their performance during the first Cascadia uprising, and I thought they were almost obscenely overstretched due to their tendency to invade everywhere.

My underlying assumption was that Japan had far more colonial conquests than fleet assets because of their lack of self-control. So their fleet assets would be forced to move from theater to theater to deal with threats, because if China is concentrating ships and aircraft in the South China Sea, Japan also needs to concentrate their assets to show the Chinese that they're ready. I thought that the NCR could hit while Japan was distracted elsewhere, then present the Japanese with a situation where they would have to stage across the Pacific to counterattack, with their local fleet bases already lost and all of Cascadia in arms against them.

Japan focuses on China, the NCR moves on Cascadia. Japan focuses on the NCR, China moves on South Korea. This idea could be wrong- there can be things that I'm not taking into account- but the assumption is that Japan is vastly overextended, and any attempt to commit to one front creates opportunities on other fronts. If Carrier Task Force Yamamoto is near Cascadia, it isn't in the South China Sea; if it is in the South China Sea, it isn't near Cascadia.


Even if they are the Italy of the Rusosphere, the fact is that if taking cascadia they would go all in, this is their north africa, and in doing so would actively help and support the Russians, so the logistical issues they would have against NCR are gone, or reduced to a large degree to not being in consideration in the short/mid term
Also it is picking a war with two larger powers
 
Even if they are the Italy of the Rusosphere, the fact is that if taking cascadia they would go all in, this is their north africa, and in doing so would actively help and support the Russians, so the logistical issues they would have against NCR are gone, or reduced to a large degree to not being in consideration in the short/mid term
Also it is picking a war with two larger powers

Here was my vision, which could be entirely wrong. And again, there's no reason that the NCR has to attack Cascadia; they could just complete their declaration of independence and sit tight.

1. NCR breaks away from Russia.
2. China masses forces at the Korean border.
3. NCR triggers a general uprising in Cascadia, supported by Californian special forces. The NCR's Air Force targets the drone control sites keeping Cascadia suppressed. This occurs after Japan has shifted forces to the South China Sea to deal with the Chinese threat; if they don't shift forces, China will have an opportunity.
4. Cascadia falls very quickly, because the local population hates them and most of their fleet is busy rattling sabers at China.

At this point, Japan could go all-in. But they'd be staging across the Pacific Ocean, and every ship they bring against the NCR is a ship they don't have if China decides that it's time to liberate South Korea. Their logistical issues would be enormous, and even more importantly they are never just fighting the NCR; they're fighting the NCR while China looms in the background, eager for revenge.

If Japan does decide to send Carrier Group Yamamoto across to Cascadia, because they won't give up any part of their Empire, China could just cross the DMZ. At this point the Japanese would have to choose between continuing to reclaim one lost colony or putting all of their effort into holding South Korea. Also, the Phillipines are probably rebelling again.

Japan is a larger power, but they've tied themselves down to an enormous empire, and they aren't Russia. Earlier I argued that Russia could crush a non-nuclear California, given sufficient time; for the "Italy of the
Russosphere", victory would be less certain, and China is just waiting for their chance.
 
Okay, I must have been running on bad assumptions. I remembered the quote that Japan was the Italy of the Russosphere, I remembered their performance during the first Cascadia uprising, and I thought they were almost obscenely overstretched due to their tendency to invade everywhere.

My underlying assumption was that Japan had far more colonial conquests than fleet assets because of their lack of self-control.
They have had many years to rectify this situation, to deploy more troops (and more drones) to Cascadia, and otherwise to fortify their position.

As such, they may be better prepared to resist an NCR invasion than you would think. Even if the NCR achieved strategic surprise and an implausibly vast, well-organized uprising occurred and the Japanese lost, this would still place the NCR at war with Japan. And unless China attacked Japan right there and then (risky, since I gather Japan has nukes), that could get ugly for the NCR.

Furthermore, the NCR would have to prepare an invasion (e.g. mass troops in northern California), and this would itself be visible to the Japanese (who surely have spy satellites, if nothing else). If the NCR began preparing, they would become the threat Japan was frantically shuttling forces over to deal with, and nothing other than an imminent Chinese attack would change their minds.

So the NCR would have to get established, get in touch with China, and coordinate operations... and realistically that couldn't happen until well after their initial uprising.

Which means there would be plenty of time for the Russians to move into bases in 'neutral' Cascadia in immediate response to the NCR revolt. And the NCR would not dare to lightly attack those bases, for fear of expanding the war and bringing in the Japanese, which would tilt the odds against them even further.
 
They have had many years to rectify this situation, to deploy more troops (and more drones) to Cascadia, and otherwise to fortify their position.

As such, they may be better prepared to resist an NCR invasion than you would think. Even if the NCR achieved strategic surprise and an implausibly vast, well-organized uprising occurred and the Japanese lost, this would still place the NCR at war with Japan. And unless China attacked Japan right there and then (risky, since I gather Japan has nukes), that could get ugly for the NCR.

Furthermore, the NCR would have to prepare an invasion (e.g. mass troops in northern California), and this would itself be visible to the Japanese (who surely have spy satellites, if nothing else). If the NCR began preparing, they would become the threat Japan was frantically shuttling forces over to deal with, and nothing other than an imminent Chinese attack would change their minds.

So the NCR would have to get established, get in touch with China, and coordinate operations... and realistically that couldn't happen until well after their initial uprising.

Which means there would be plenty of time for the Russians to move into bases in 'neutral' Cascadia in immediate response to the NCR revolt. And the NCR would not dare to lightly attack those bases, for fear of expanding the war and bringing in the Japanese, which would tilt the odds against them even further.


on the flip side, would the Russians be able to move into bases in "Neutral" Cascadia? Don't think Japan would make that possibility cheap and, much like the Alaskan buildup, it still has logistical problems, the supplies need to get there from Russia to Cascadia, and that means either transiberian, transport and thru the pacific or baltic-atlantic-panama, in either case it is putting troops at the end of a long logistical tail (sure you can airlift a lot of stuff, but that is a far more expensive option and would still need to get the airspace authorizations, I am guessing over the pole is an option, but I am not sure how reliable those routes can be)
 
They have had many years to rectify this situation, to deploy more troops (and more drones) to Cascadia, and otherwise to fortify their position.

Troops and drones in Cascadia are troops and drones not in South Korea or the Phillipines.

The underlying issue that Japan has isn't that they can't move around their resources as needed; it is that their empire is larger than the resources they have to hold their empire. Russia has similar issues, but they're a larger country with more reserves.

As such, they may be better prepared to resist an NCR invasion than you would think. Even if the NCR achieved strategic surprise and an implausibly vast, well-organized uprising occurred and the Japanese lost, this would still place the NCR at war with Japan. And unless China attacked Japan right there and then (risky, since I gather Japan has nukes), that could get ugly for the NCR.

Furthermore, the NCR would have to prepare an invasion (e.g. mass troops in northern California), and this would itself be visible to the Japanese (who surely have spy satellites, if nothing else). If the NCR began preparing, they would become the threat Japan was frantically shuttling forces over to deal with, and nothing other than an imminent Chinese attack would change their minds.

Japan's underlying issue is that they face multiple enemies. The NCR can afford to concentrate forces in northern California and leave them there for as long as they want to; if Japan responds by sending forces to Cascadia, they will face increased problems in South Korea and the Philippines, and the Chinese might decide to cross the DMZ. In the same way, a major Chinese buildup in the DMZ would force Japan to route troops and aircraft to South Korea, leaving those troops and aircraft unavailable in Cascadia.

Japan is smaller than China. A war between Japan and the NCR would be fought very far from Japan's centers of power and very close to the NCR's major cities and military bases. They also want to hold on to the Phillippines. I view their strategic situation as untenable; in Southeast Asia, where they can project power with relative ease, they have a large, powerful adversary. At the same time, they also chose to claim colonies in Cascadia, where they can't project power as easily.

If Japan is willing to break out nukes to defend the colonies, then no one can attack the Japanese Empire. If Japan is only willing to break out nukes to defend the homeland, then the strategic situation is very different. A great deal depends on whether Japan considers their colonies fundamentally Japanese, to be defended at all costs up to and including nukes, or whether their ultimate weapon is only reserved for the defense of the Home Islands.

In my mind, Japan is a second-tier power trying to hold on to a first-tier empire; they have Russia's ambitions, but they aren't Russia.

Which means there would be plenty of time for the Russians to move into bases in 'neutral' Cascadia in immediate response to the NCR revolt. And the NCR would not dare to lightly attack those bases, for fear of expanding the war and bringing in the Japanese, which would tilt the odds against them even further.

I find this discussion interesting because it shows one of the major problems of empire. Even for the mighty Russians, it will be difficult to maintain divisions in Cascadia and Central Asia and the Baltics and Eastern Europe, while keeping control of Panama and maintaining a substantial reserve for emergencies.

The NCR doesn't have to attack. They can sit and wait, and China can build up their forces along the DMZ and the Russian border, and the EU can build up their forces along the Russian border.

The NCR can quietly move weapons into Cascadia, just as China does in South Korea and the Phillipines. The occupation will become bloodier and more expensive over time, especially since the NCR can serve as a refuge for the rebel leadership, allowing them to train and coordinate in a nation where Japan can't just murder them with drones. With NCR support, Cascadia could become Vietnam.

And if Japan or Russia face a crisis in another part of their empire, they have to choose whether to pull out, leaving Cascadia vulnerable, or stay in, reducing their ability to respond to other problems.
 
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So the NCR would have to get established, get in touch with China, and coordinate operations... and realistically that couldn't happen until well after their initial uprising.

I agree. My only discussion of "Cascadia falls immediately" took place in the context of an argument with uju32, where he insisted that California could defeat Russian aggression even in the absence of nukes or foreign intervention. I argued that this was not true, even if Cascadia fell immediately and Russia was unable to use those bases.
 
My strategy was always
1) NCR slips the Russian Yoke
2) Rapid buildup of military
3) Then you go for Cascadia
4) Japans biggest weakness is that they have a much larger distance to cross to supply occupation forces.
5) Play defensively and turn the war into a money sink.
6) Japan has to weigh superior military against the price tag of a protracted struggle.
 
Japan focuses on China, the NCR moves on Cascadia. Japan focuses on the NCR, China moves on South Korea. This idea could be wrong- there can be things that I'm not taking into account- but the assumption is that Japan is vastly overextended, and any attempt to commit to one front creates opportunities on other fronts.
The problem is that for all that Japan is overextended that can only be taken advantage of by the second mover - the first one is stuck with Japan jumping on them full force to try and resolve on issue fast (and also as a sort of intimidation effect to stop anybody from starting anything). So the NCR has to try and coordinate with some other power to start messing with Japan at the same time (really difficult when you're a client state with marching orders that don't include that) or they have to just hold off on their own until something comes up as a distraction. Which probably would not work out too well since the NCR is apparently under some time pressure (both their looming economic troubles as well as hints of a schedule for declaring independence complete with deadlines) so can't really afford to wait for an indefinite period.
 
The thing is the NCR probably has fighting Japan reserved for the long term and in the short term merely wants to slip free of Russia.
 
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So where do we get all our equipment from? Did we build and rebuild factories in the ruins of Chicago?
Apart from the Old World Equipment, which has been salvaged and carefully maintained, yeah. Chicago was making its own guns long before Hellfire Burns showed up, the air force was made up of an anti-pirate air patrol the city was able to keep flightworthy, and there was a brown water navy in service. During the war with Victoria, the concern wasn't running out of shells, it was running out of copper to make new shell casings with, since using steel casings would cause more wear on the barrels.
 
The success condition was characterized as an end to Victoria's ability to militarily threaten the CFC. While this was originally envisioned as establishing a stable defensive strategy Victoria could not overcome, the complete annihilation of the Victoria Army as an institution was also found to qualify.
This is apropos of nothing on a reread, but @PoptartProdigy , may I just say that I love your sense of understatement?

So where do we get all our equipment from? Did we build and rebuild factories in the ruins of Chicago?
Apart from the Old World Equipment, which has been salvaged and carefully maintained, yeah. Chicago was making its own guns long before Hellfire Burns showed up, the air force was made up of an anti-pirate air patrol the city was able to keep flightworthy, and there was a brown water navy in service. During the war with Victoria, the concern wasn't running out of shells, it was running out of copper to make new shell casings with, since using steel casings would cause more wear on the barrels.
To add a bit more nuance to this...

1) Victorians tended to wreck any kind of large scale industry they aren't personally benefiting from, but strictly practical concerns mean they can't wreck all the light industry, machine shops, and single-artisan operations in a country with a population in the hundreds of millions. They only had so many roving warlord bands divisions, and a lot of ground to cover. So for the roughly thirty years of periodic Vick occupation, that informed the kind of industry and economy that existed.

2) Victorians also, for ideological reasons (residual fondness for armed "Christian" (read: white, patriarchal, etc.) rural populations, combined again with sheer practicality, probably never managed to stamp out widespread small arms stockpiling and gunsmithing in America. Consequently, Chicago (or the 'greater Chicago area' that became the Commonwealth) was able to maintain small scale small arms production. There were a wide variety of armed militias in the Commonwealth area. Note that until Burns got to work on the place, our ground forces did not have standardized small arms calibers. It was that bad, the supply situation was that catch-as-catch can. Ammunition availability was also spotty, which chains into the brass crisis you allude to and that I will have more to say about shortly.

3) As per (1), Chicago had a few fairly specific industries it kept. Coal mining in the Illinois region seems to have remained active, for instance, probably because Victorians were burning it. And a certain amount of light-to-medium industry necessary to service lake shipping and maintain connections to the Mississippi river network- because Victoria used those connections to access the continental interior. However, those industries were sharply limited.

4) For example, our sole domestic aircraft production run is an inferior DC-3 knockoff running on handbuilt prototype lightweight aviation diesels. It struggles to match the power-to-weight ratio of a 1930s-era aircraft. We call the airplane the Garbage Bird. Partly because the aluminum fuselage is made from recycled soda cans dug out of 20th century landfills, because we have no domestic aluminum production capability worth mentioning.

5) Likewise, we had no domestic oil production worth mentioning, to the extent that our navy consisted of coal-fired gunboats that would not look very out of place in the colonial militaries of an early 20th century colonial power, chugging around some river network in Africa or southern Asia and shelling tribesmen. Which chains into...

6) While we're at it, that shell crisis. There is little or no domestic copper production, and probably only limited zinc production within the Commonwealth's immediate borders, so making brass for ammunition is... problematic. It seemed logical for me to suppose that this led to something of a crunch when we went to war mobilization while under an embargo from most of our trading partners (thanks, Victoria!).

7) Note the size of the military we were struggling to supply fully for extended military operations, too. We were operating three infantry divisions with (mostly, as I understand it) automatic rifles and machine guns, and the entirety of our artillery arm, land AND sea-based, consisted of... lemme count... (11*2) + (at most 12-18*3) = 76 artillery tubes for our entire military, plus mortars that use a lot less brass/steel per shot (and can use captured Vick ammo probably). By the standards of, say, a World War era military, being unable to supply this force with all the ammunition it could ever need is pathetic.

...

In all probability, 1939-era Poland could crush our entire military in a matter of weeks, yes I said Poland. Numbers of troops sustainable in the field would be badly against us, we wouldn't enjoy all that much of an equipment advantage in practice, and the Poles would have known how to react to artillery fire as the Victorians very much did not.

But we do have industrial capacity, some of it recently built up in the three years or so since the Vicks lost their ability to sabotage stuff around us, and some of it older and Vick-tolerated either because it was too dispersed to be easily targeted or because they were directly benefiting from it.
 
On the topic of copper, there are some very good sources for copper in the western Great Lakes region- Upper Michigan and most of the area around Lake Superior. If the Conference results in nothing else we should be able to reopen trade to the factions in that area.
 
So does anyone think WW3 is on the horizon? The Czar basically has to keep conquering, but everyone else is getting stronger and has a grudge to bear.
 
So does anyone think WW3 is on the horizon? The Czar basically has to keep conquering, but everyone else is getting stronger and has a grudge to bear.
I doubt it.

As long as Russia has functioning Nuclear Weapons and is in a relatively stable State, no one is actually gonna be able to invade them. And without Alexander at the Helm, I'm not sure if Russia would just start invading other Countries again.
 
I doubt it.

As long as Russia has functioning Nuclear Weapons and is in a relatively stable State, no one is actually gonna be able to invade them. And without Alexander at the Helm, I'm not sure if Russia would just start invading other Countries again.

*looks at the entire history of the Russian state since the 16th century*

I'm not saying ww3 is on the horizon, but the Russians historically havnt been a particularly pacifistic country ever. Even without a competent dictator at the helm
 
*looks at the entire history of the Russian state since the 16th century*

I'm not saying ww3 is on the horizon, but the Russians historically havnt been a particularly pacifistic country ever. Even without a competent dictator at the helm
I mean, fair enough. It depends on who will succeed Alexander, I suppose. Remember, Wars are a costly affair, even for a Superpower. If Katherine succeeds her Father, I doubt she would go out of her way to start Wars and conquer other Countries, if only because she's savy enough to know that Russia's Resources are probably better spent on other things.

Of course, if the more Conservative Nobles and her Brother seize Power, things could look very differently.
 
On the topic of copper, there are some very good sources for copper in the western Great Lakes region- Upper Michigan and most of the area around Lake Superior. If the Conference results in nothing else we should be able to reopen trade to the factions in that area.
Oh, absolutely!

When I wrote the shell crisis (which the Commonwealth solved by producing artillery shell casings out of steel, lacquered for weather resistance and in hopes of acting as lubricant for barrel wear reduction), I figured part of the problem was actually that the copper mines on the Lakes had remained active, even post-Collapse, to some extent- probably a major source of copper for Victoria, but also providing Chicago with at least limited amounts of the ore. Between scavenging and the ability to buy copper from nearby city-states, Chicago may simply never have worried about availability of that particular material, and the Chicago-based CFC might not have really worried about availability until the embargo abruptly slammed down, catching them by surprise to some extent and forcing them to get creative.
 
I mean, fair enough. It depends on who will succeed Alexander, I suppose. Remember, Wars are a costly affair, even for a Superpower. If Katherine succeeds her Father, I doubt she would go out of her way to start Wars and conquer other Countries, if only because she's savy enough to know that Russia's Resources are probably better spent on other things.

Of course, if the more Conservative Nobles and her Brother seize Power, things could look very differently.
I'm just saying we have an Imperialist Russia that got to the top by screwing over everyone else, they're probably the most hated nation on Earth and people are probably looking for an opportunity to take them out both out of revenge and to prevent further conquests.
 
I'm just saying we have an Imperialist Russia that got to the top by screwing over everyone else, they're probably the most hated nation on Earth and people are probably looking for an opportunity to take them out both out of revenge and to prevent further conquests.
But again: Russia is currently a Superpower with Nuclear Weapons.

Sure, many People want it gone...but can they actually DO anything about it?
 
I'm just saying we have an Imperialist Russia that got to the top by screwing over everyone else, they're probably the most hated nation on Earth and people are probably looking for an opportunity to take them out both out of revenge and to prevent further conquests.
Yeah, all that is true. But most people (including the ones in power, thankfully) would prefer that in any theoretical case of conflict going hot with Russia, there would still be an inhabitable planet in the aftermath. A Russia + allies that are the world's premier nuclear superpowers makes that result... unlikely to say the least.
 
So regarding Russia, what sort of internal struggles are there? I imagine that all those countries Russia conquered in the collapse probably have their own national identities and are looking to violently free themselves.
 
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