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Hmm. Shame we didn't get we wanted. However, I do believe we still have the edge in this situation. We just need to play it smart. A question, @PoptartProdigy, where are the crusaders in relation to us? And who do they hate more?
Hmm. Shame we didn't get we wanted. However, I do believe we still have the edge in this situation. We just need to play it smart. A question, @PoptartProdigy, where are the crusaders in relation to us? And who do they hate more?
They've gone inland and your agents are getting information out in the form of letters back to Buffalo, handed off to random people in the hopes they make it home. So, no pertinent information on where the Crusaders are, substantively, since Blackwell would sell his soul for that information.
As for whom they hate more...good question? They definitely hate you both lots, but they've hardly made a formal statement on the issue.
Only if the Blackwell Loyalist faction is still doing badly against the Crusaders.
Remember, our only realistic defensible line (and the only one that lets us use the Welland Canal) is the Niagara River. Which is literally right next to Buffalo; Buffalo is the city on the American side of that river on the Lake Erie end of the river. Buffalo is the biggest Crusader stronghold, and unless they all charge inland and risk being cut off and surrounded and swarmed, they'll want to go on holding it.
It is almost impossible that we will be able to hold the Welland Canal, therefore, without deploying a large force in the Crusaders' back yard.
Which in turn means that the Crusaders will be caught between a "communist" horde and Blackwell's horde. They may feel compelled to deploy forces to guard their rear, which is bad for us (more resistance) and good for Blackwell (less Crusaders for him to fight all at once).
It's entirely possible that our decision to take and hold the Canadian side of the Niagara River so that we can control the Welland Canal will directly result in the Crusaders being forced on the defensive, or even doing something reckless like an ill-advised attack against our forces that drastically weakens them. In which case, by the time we're in a position to negotiate peace with Blackwell, he may well be much more confident of being able to defeat the Crusaders... in which case our continuing to hold the Welland Canal doesn't really matter to him nearly as much.
You've forgotten the bit where we were just told that the Crusader division that was holding Buffalo has just stripped the city of basically all it's remaining combat-capable male population, then broke through the Loyalist lines to link up with the other Crusader division somewhere in Victoria's interior, didn't you? Right now is basically the best possible time to seize Buffalo for a while (but still much too risky, so we'd definitely want to stop at the river) so taking the canal and surrounding territory is actually something that would seriously scare Blackwell. Because it now puts the Loyalists in a two front war, and also breaks the final element of Victorian Invincibility. Namely, that they've never had their own territory conquered.
...Do we really need to take territory in this fight? Hit and run raids with heavy armor on whatever passes for Victorian infrastructure belonging to either side would serve our interests well. A few months of that then we invite them back to the table.
We could always ignore social issues in favor of subsidies for guns manufactories and mobilization of our population for war, if worst comes to worse anyhow. Although I would prefer to try and bring them back to the table first. A full on war this early will be a bloody mess no matter who comes out on top. And will probably lead to Victoria and us killing each other. Something to be avoided. Well, our states fall anyhow.
...Do we really need to take territory in this fight? Hit and run raids with heavy armor on whatever passes for Victorian infrastructure belonging to either side would serve our interests well. A few months of that then we invite them back to the table.
The goal is to seize the Welland Canal to force Blackwell's forces to accept the peace. We don't have the materiel needed to hold, but following up on their disaster with a show of making it damn well look like we can keep going onward is part of the point of it.
We don't need to hold this territory. Essentially i propose that we employ a strategy of Chevauchée, burning and destroying all industry, infrastructure etc of the enemy that we can reach. We can simply withdraw later on to our own lines. Essentially, a repeat of Sherman's march to the sea.
[X] Reveal to the Victorians' negotiating team that you know what's up, and this is their last chance to accept your offer before your diplomats go home and your troops ship out. Reroll treaty negotiations at -40 DC; the Vicks are hiding it well, but with two shocking military disasters chasing each others' heels, they have to be desperate. The cost is that this is a precipitous demand to make; if you make it and lose, Victoria's walking.
Cashing Your Mouth's Checks
Super-Hardball [DC 50]: 28. Failure.
Ambassador Foulkes of the Commonwealth of Free Cities slaps her hand on the table, shaking her head. "We're not bargaining, at this point," she says.
"Then you're walking," replies the Victorian negotiator, Edward Smith. "We've told you that your offer is unacceptable. What do you think this is? Do you think you're negotiating from the ruins of Augusta? We don't need to accept this peace. You won a battle. A battle miles from our borders-"
"In which we destroyed your entire army!" snaps Foulkes.
"Mister Smith, Miss Foulkes," sighs the FCNY moderator for the day, Derek Haines. "One at a time, please." He nods to Smith. "Mister Smith, please continue."
Smith nods back, jaw tight. "Victoria rejects these terms. The Commonwealth has let its success go to its head. Clearly, they lack the discipline to wage true war, but that is no less than Victoria expects from Cultural Marxists!"
Haines hums. "Miss Foulkes?"
Foulkes doesn't even glance at him, instead leaning over the table to scowl at Smith. "I think it's Victoria that doesn't understand its situation. You're in the middle of a civil war. The Commonwealth has the capacity to keep hitting Victoria. We agreed to these talks by overflying your territory in one of your old planes and dropping a canister. You don't need this fight. We're offering you one last chance to avoid it before we make you feel how little you need it."
Haines gestures to Smith, whom folds his arms. "Then do it!" he laughs. "Let's see how scary the Commonwealth really is. You want this peace? You'll hand it down over our dead bodies." He turns and begins to walk away.
"I wouldn't leave, if I were you!" calls Foulkes.
"And I wouldn't waste your time with offers in bad faith if I were you," he snaps. "Take your offer and shove it!" His hand closes around the doorknob on the door out of the room.
Foulkes straightens, scowling. "You walk out that door, and we'll do worse to you than the CMC did to your lines at Buffalo when they left with guns blazing!"
Smith's hand freezes. Sweat beads on his forehead for a moment. "...what did you say?" he asks, fury in his voice.
Foulkes leans on the table, staring at Smith's shoulder blades. "We know, Vick," she hisses. "You thought you could keep a disaster like that secret? If you walk out that door, the Commonwealth will hit you again. Can you handle three, so close together? This is your last chance."
Smith stays silent and still for a long moment. He swallows. Then his shoulders stiffen. "We'll take our chances," he replies.
* * *
So.
Victoria thinks it can deny you, even with this. All right, then.
You'll just have to respond.
Negotiations have fallen through, and you have one last chance to force the Victorians to the negotiating table.
As a reminder, as suggested by your Secretary of Defense and agreed to by the leaders of your military branches, the plan is a strike on the Welland Canal. With the current, disorganized state of the Victorian army, and the CMC's sudden absence from the area, the Canal has never been more vulnerable. It is a visible, high-value target with lots of civilian infrastructure in the area -- one which neither side of the civil war can really militarily afford to defend. Taking it would demonstrate the CFC's strength and daring, and immeasurably strengthen your bargaining position, forcing them back to the bargaining table under the impression that you can and will keep hitting them until they collapse, if need be.
The difficulties: while your ammunition stockpiles have, months after the end of the Erie campaign, recovered significantly, your artillery munitions are still incredibly limited. You have about two months' worth of ammunition for combat operations before the guns run dry and your troops have no heavy fire support. You cannot feasibly hold the Canal past the two-month mark, especially not with the masses of militia that Victoria can -- eventually -- mobilize to respond. Furthermore, while maintaining your supply chain, you lack the sealift to put any more than one division ashore in the first wave of the assault. Whatever unit you choose for this must be able to carry the beach and establish its position without support for a full day while your transports return to pick up more troops.
The positives: this is the best possible time for this strike. The Crusaders have moved far enough inland and to ground that the Loyalists have redeployed the vast majority of their forces inland. The eastern shore of Lake Erie is incredibly poorly secured, and with your assets, you absolutely can force the landing and seize the Canal. You will need to hold it against a determined counterattack in order for this gambit to hold weight, but you can definitely take the position and get settled in. Furthermore, with Buffalo now stripped of resources, all of its able-bodied male population, and any semblance of protection, the option exists -- if you feel ambitious -- to move on and seize the city itself as an additional demonstration of strength. This would be much less sustainable, but if you held the city and the Canal against the first counterattack, it would strengthen your position immeasurably. Finally, with the Victorians' unwilling contribution of F-16Vs and the hardware you looted from the grounded laker, you should actually be able to contest the air for this operation as an equal.
In short, the entire plan revolves around whether or not you can hold against the first counterattack, and do so in good enough form to convince the Victorians that you are capable of further pressing the offensive.
In terms of available units, you actually have more options than most of you've been considering. Of your three divisions used in the Erie Campaign, only one -- the Big Red One -- can be readily deployed for this without eating up a military AP. If you wish to deploy the Springfield or Liberators divisions, you will use the military AP for the coming turn. Your marine company will be involved, but below the level of abstraction, acting in support of the invasion (there just aren't enough of them to really carry the landing themselves). However, most people have left the newly-recruited Toledan divisions out of their analysis. All three Toledan divisions are available and on active status, and will not use a military AP to mobilize as they are still on the yet-to-be-integrated Toledan support structure. They are quality 2/5. They use typical American standards of motorization (technicals) and have a Victorian quantity of infantry mortars for fire support. They lack the heavy artillery that has been the Commonwealth's big advantage against the Victorians, but they're available and ready to go, and the Victorians are worse-off than ever. Good for filling spots in the line, in your estimation, although they may struggle against the hordes of conscripts you anticipate, unless backed up.
Do you launch the attack? If you elect to launch the raid, who's coming with? If you elect to launch the raid, who will be first on the beach? Create a plan from the following options.
[ ] No. We made a big bluff and got called out. It happens. Take our lumps and go home. The war will continue, but in practice neither of us can reach each other. Things will play out in a ceasefire, for practical purposes, and you will gain no favorable peace terms.
[ ] Yes. We made our threat, and this peace treaty hinges on us being able to carry it out. We just need to carry this bluff convincingly. We stand to impose a ruinous peace, if all goes well.
-[ ] Select which divisions will be assigned to the raid. Select all which apply.
--[ ] The Big Red One [Quality 5/5, motorized, support artillery, combat engineers]. Your stars, your expeditionary unit, your irreplaceable, priceless elites. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Springfield Division [Quality 1/5, partially motorized, support artillery]. One of your two regular divisions, fresh from Detroit. Will consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Liberators Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, support artillery]. 3rd Division, the unit that received the hardest shocks in Detroit and punched right on back. Will consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 1st Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 2nd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 3rd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
-[ ] Select which division will be chosen to assault the Welland Canal from the Lake.
--[ ] The Big Red One. Your elites, and the best possible option for seizing a -- however poorly -- defended beach.
--[ ] Springfield Division. This would be an excellent chance to blood Springfield and really pull it together the way the Liberators have been, although you question if this is the time and place.
--[ ] Liberators Division. On both flanks of Detroit, elements of the Liberators were the first to met the Victorians -- meetings the Victorians bitterly regretted, each time. That's a legacy you're of a mind to uphold.
--[ ] Toledan 1st Division. Toledo is willing, eager, and -- although you'll never admit it to them -- much more expendable than your own forces, in your mind.
--[ ] Toledan 2nd Division. Toledo is willing, eager, and -- although you'll never admit it to them -- much more expendable than your own forces, in your mind.
--[ ] Toledan 3rd Division. Toledo is willing, eager, and -- although you'll never admit it to them -- much more expendable than your own forces, in your mind.
WRITE-INS WELCOMED AS ALWAYS, ALTHOUGH I'LL BE MODERATING THEM THIS TIME. TAG ME WITH YOURS. APPROVAL VOTING IS DEFINITELY A THING. MANUAL MORATORIUM, AS EVER.
...y'know, doing updates for just one quest is proving to be remarkably...sustainable...now that I've had time to reel back from the edge of burnout.
Hm.
Y'KNOW WHAT, FUCK IT! WE'RE BACK, FOLKS! DOWN WITH VICTORIA!
Use BRO and 2x toledan divisions. Not all three so Toledo has a defense and we're not blatantly obviously treating our new state as expendable pawns
[ ] Yes. We made our threat, and this peace treaty hinges on us being able to carry it out. We just need to carry this bluff convincingly. We stand to impose a ruinous peace, if all goes well.
-[ ] Select which divisions will be assigned to the raid. Select all which apply.
--[ ] The Big Red One [Quality 5/5, motorized, support artillery, combat engineers]. Your stars, your expeditionary unit, your irreplaceable, priceless elites. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 2nd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
-[ ] Select which division will be chosen to assault the Welland Canal from the Lake.
--[ ] Toledan 1st Division. Toledo is willing, eager, and -- although you'll never admit it to them -- much more expendable than your own forces, in your mind.
Possible plan 2: ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK
All-in.
[ ] Yes. We made our threat, and this peace treaty hinges on us being able to carry it out. We just need to carry this bluff convincingly. We stand to impose a ruinous peace, if all goes well.
-[ ] Select which divisions will be assigned to the raid. Select all which apply.
--[ ] The Big Red One [Quality 5/5, motorized, support artillery, combat engineers]. Your stars, your expeditionary unit, your irreplaceable, priceless elites. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Springfield Division [Quality 1/5, partially motorized, support artillery]. One of your two regular divisions, fresh from Detroit. Will consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Liberators Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, support artillery]. 3rd Division, the unit that received the hardest shocks in Detroit and punched right on back. Will consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 1st Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 2nd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 3rd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
-[ ] Select which division will be chosen to assault the Welland Canal from the Lake.
--[ ] The Big Red One. Your elites, and the best possible option for seizing a -- however poorly -- defended beach.
[ ] Plan "All In"
[ ] Yes. We made our threat, and this peace treaty hinges on us being able to carry it out. We just need to carry this bluff convincingly. We stand to impose a ruinous peace, if all goes well.
-[ ] Select which divisions will be assigned to the raid. Select all which apply.
--[ ] The Big Red One [Quality 5/5, motorized, support artillery, combat engineers]. Your stars, your expeditionary unit, your irreplaceable, priceless elites. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Springfield Division [Quality 1/5, partially motorized, support artillery]. One of your two regular divisions, fresh from Detroit. Will consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Liberators Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, support artillery]. 3rd Division, the unit that received the hardest shocks in Detroit and punched right on back. Will consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 1st Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 2nd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 3rd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
-[ ] Select which division will be chosen to assault the Welland Canal from the Lake.
--[ ] The Big Red One. Your elites, and the best possible option for seizing a -- however poorly -- defended beach.
Everything we can send without losing AP. Toledo wanted in on the war, they can see it ended.
[ ] Yes. We made our threat, and this peace treaty hinges on us being able to carry it out. We just need to carry this bluff convincingly. We stand to impose a ruinous peace, if all goes well.
-[ ] Select which divisions will be assigned to the raid. Select all which apply.
--[ ] The Big Red One [Quality 5/5, motorized, support artillery, combat engineers]. Your stars, your expeditionary unit, your irreplaceable, priceless elites. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 1st Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 2nd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
--[ ] Toledo 3rd Division [Quality 2/5, partially motorized, mass mortars]. A division of, by post-Collapse standards, crack troops with Victorian training. Eager to prove themselves. Does not consume Turn 5 DoD AP.
-[ ] Select which division will be chosen to assault the Welland Canal from the Lake.
--[ ] The Big Red One. Your elites, and the best possible option for seizing a -- however poorly -- defended beach.
You've forgotten the bit where we were just told that the Crusader division that was holding Buffalo has just stripped the city of basically all it's remaining combat-capable male population, then broke through the Loyalist lines to link up with the other Crusader division somewhere in Victoria's interior, didn't you? Right now is basically the best possible time to seize Buffalo for a while (but still much too risky, so we'd definitely want to stop at the river) so taking the canal and surrounding territory is actually something that would seriously scare Blackwell. Because it now puts the Loyalists in a two front war, and also breaks the final element of Victorian Invincibility. Namely, that they've never had their own territory conquered.
OK, that's fair- but I really really don't think we could hold Buffalo.
Buffalo is on the east (American) side of the Niagara River. The defensible line we can plausibly hold against an eventual Victorian counterattack in modest force is the west (Canadian) side. Happily that is also the side with the canal on it, so it would be very inconvenient territory for us to hold from a Vick standpoint.
Buffalo has overland access by road and rail, and sooner or later someone will direct significant forces against us. Holding Buffalo will leave our troops trapped in a pocket, pinned against lake and river, and without industry capable of keeping our artillery and other heavy weapons supplied with a constant river of ammunition to use heavily every damn day, sooner or later a Victorian siege of Buffalo would wear us down.
Whereas we might actually be able to hold ground on the Canadian side of the river; it's a good defensive border and our own potential lines of retreat if things get ugly are, uh... well, not good but not utterly hopeless. No risk of getting trapped with our backs to a river or something.
...Do we really need to take territory in this fight? Hit and run raids with heavy armor on whatever passes for Victorian infrastructure belonging to either side would serve our interests well. A few months of that then we invite them back to the table.
Due to the geography and the limits of our own logistical capabilities, we can only hit the Victorians in one small corner of their territory- the rest of it is effectively beyond our reach until and unless we hold that corner. They don't have a long, extended border with us that we can stab into at will with raiding tactics, and we don't have a large, well developed air force that can hit them all over a wide area. So no, we can't just "raid them" and force them to the peace table, because mere raids can't do enough damage to lastingly break their forces.
The main issue is that the Crusaders are in a very bad position to actually win in the long run. It's not impossible but they're definitely the underdogs. If they do win, the state they create will be utterly brutal, but not especially effective, so that's something. I can't really endorse helping them but I certainly don't mind stabbing Blackwell in the back while he's fighting them.
We could always ignore social issues in favor of subsidies for guns manufactories and mobilization of our population for war, if worst comes to worse anyhow. Although I would prefer to try and bring them back to the table first. A full on war this early will be a bloody mess no matter who comes out on top. And will probably lead to Victoria and us killing each other. Something to be avoided. Well, our states fall anyhow.
The problem is, we kiiiiind of just blew our opportunity at peace by overplaying our hand. Forcing them to the peace table again is gonna be tough unless the Crusaders continue to do well.
With that said, we have too many economic and political issues to just ignore them, and we still ultimately need to grow if we're ever going to beat the Vicks in a lasting manner. Right now we can talk about nibbling a chunk off their territory, a very exposed chunk- but to break their power, or even to stop them from building a war machine that can threaten us again- we need to tool up. A lot.
We don't need to hold this territory. Essentially i propose that we employ a strategy of Chevauchée, burning and destroying all industry, infrastructure etc of the enemy that we can reach. We can simply withdraw later on to our own lines. Essentially, a repeat of Sherman's march to the sea.
Sherman had a powerful army that had already beaten and broken the Confederate army opposing him in battles fought in Tennessee. When he started pushing into Georgia it was a steady offensive that maintained supply lines and advanced in a normal manner; it's just that the Confederates had no surviving armies capable of stopping him.
Moreover, as noted, we don't even have access to more than a small corner of Victorian territory. We literally can not raid the vast majority of their territory, and any attempt to penetrate deep into their land from the places we can access will just get cut off and chewed down to nothing.
Something to consider: They know we know, they know we're going to try something. Maybe they'll mine the canal approaches and shift reinforcements towards the place. In fact they almost certainly will. We shouldn't assume this will be a cakewalk.
I'm a little nervous about going "All In" to be honest. While a mass show of force would be good to shock the Vicks even more, eggs and baskets spring to mind. I also don't want to use any more charges of Old World Equipment on this, but I was against using it before, too, so I'll probably get outvoted on that.
