An assumption that most of the voter base is working off of is if the New California Republic successfully breaks away from Russian control, then they will be hostile to Russia and friendly to us. A few worry that the NCR might turn hostile toward in the future but everybody still assumes that an independent NCR would be hostile to Russia. But could an independent NCR voluntarily align itself with Russia after independence?
I consider this highly unlikely. Even stipulating what you say below...
1) China is weakened as an ally by being hemmed in, but California's shifting role in the balance of power in the Pacific significantly weakens that encirclement. Russia's Pacific presence is almost certainly weaker than the country's superpower status would indicate, simply because of how remote the Pacific is from Russia's geographic 'center of mass.' With China rising and Russia having to worry about a land-based threat
from China, it is extremely risky for the Russians to indulge in extensive naval operations in the Pacific. Japan has more freedom of action, but in turn must keep most of its forces available to counter threats from China. Neither has available the large numbers of soldiers it would take to occupy California once the nation establishes a national government;
last time the Russians relied on Victorians and mercenaries, and that won't work this time.
2) With Victoria losing its ability to keep North America locked down, with Miami and various South American states independent, Russia's grip on Panama starts to look rather insecure,
especially if California flips. This, in turn, influences California's relationship with Europe.
3) Cases where a liberal democratic state aligns with a fascist power tend to involve that liberal democratic state having a nearby third-party enemy (e.g. Finland allying with Germany against Russia), and that democratic state not having bitter memories of rapine, slaughter, and starvation at the hands of the fascist state (likewise). California does have such memories. The Californians would be fools to tolerate Russian military forces based in California, or to rely on Russian supplies of military equipment, or to squander its own forces doing Russia's bidding and thus making itself vulnerable to betrayal.
4) Russian attempts to attack California directly,
without the support of a large ready-made army already assailing them from another direction, will probably do poorly. They can blockade, sure. But if California has taken the basic step of ensuring food security (which mainly requires
water security, which explains why they've pushed inland), then they can hold out for a long time against blockade. And reconquering the Californians in the face of California having decent weaponry, nuclear cruise missiles and quite possibly ballistic missiles, and a populace willing to engage in guerilla warfare would require
someone to do a lot of dying... Which would, in turn, force Alexander to commit troops to a bloody attritional war in North America, something he's been avoiding as hard as he can for over forty years. I mean, he hasn't even fallen for the old "invade Afghanistan" trap, and that's right in his backyard. I don't think he's going to be stupid enough to fall for it when it's happening more or less
literally at the opposite end of the Earth.
I do not think the NCR will have as much to fear as you believe, assuming they can drive off the immediate Russian military presence on their soil and organize a large military capable of stopping the Russians from making unopposed troop landings in Californian port cities.
Help from China or Europe would be limited by these factors. So what about Russia? Russia is the reigning superpower and the scary close by neighbor. California and Russia have pre-existing economic ties. Rejoining the Russian alliance would ward off extreme punishment from Russia and attacks from Victoria or Japan's West Coast colonies. An willing allied NCR would be a far more capable ally in North America for Russia than the Victorians could be. A Russian alignment could be the pragmatic option for an independent NCR. There is historical precedent for a liberal democratic state allying with the nearby fascist power over more far away more ideologically similar states (Finland during WW2) and plenty of newly independent states have aligned themselves with their former masters even after hard won independence wars.
A Russian alignment with the NCR would be very pragmatic
for Russia and Alexander might actually settle for it. We've seen that he is far too canny to throw good money after bad by observing how he's handling the Victorian War, or rather NOPE-ing the hell out of it and waiting for the dust to settle so he can presumably move in to support the winner.
However, it is very unlikely that the NCR's own populace would support such a move, and the Californian leadership, most of whom are over fifty and were adults during the country's brutalization at Victorian hands, would be reluctant to consider such a move. Imagine how hesitant someone like Sara Johnson or Ron Burns would be to align with the Russians, even against Victoria. Much of the NCR's leadership cadre will consist of people cut from the same cloth- we've already seen one of them.
There is an SR-71 Blackbird in the Air Zoo in Portage Michigan, and I think it is in our territory so, we should probably go fix it. Along with a few other things, they are museum pices but that shouldn't be hard..
Logan: "DARIA WE FOUND THE SR-71 WHERE DO YOU WANT US TO PUT IT!!"
Portage, Michigan is indeed in or near our territory; it's in the southwest corner of the state. However, that SR-71 is very unlikely to be serviceable, would be the only one we have, would require exotic high-temperature parts and fuels not used by any other aircraft in our military and would (importantly)
serve no practical purpose. Anything we can get from the SR-71, we could get from Google Maps or its equivalent.
Again, don't think about how cool it would be to have a Blackbird.
Think about what we would
do with a Blackbird.
I have my doubts about the viability of mercenary forces operating heavy equipment without nationstate support, but it's alright.
It depends on the definition of 'support' and on whether the international milieu of the era really includes/tolerates mercenaries. In a multipolar world where all minor nations are in the sphere of influence of some larger power that does not tolerate intrusions on its sphere, it wouldn't work out very well. In a unipolar world where the dominant hyperpower actually controls everything, likewise. But in a world like this, where large parts of the planet are effectively up for grabs and where Alexander has deliberately disrupted the international order to bring about more warfare and chaos... it's iffier.
Lockheed YF-12 was the actual fighter version of that plane. Bomber interceptor.
Top speed of Mach 3.35. Flight ceiling of 90,000 feet. Combat radius of 1350 nautical miles/2500 km. Payload of 3 longrange AA missiles.
Canceled after 2 models were built when it was decided that the Soviet bomber threat had receded.
Probably too maintenance intensive to bother.
Yeah. The F-12 was intended as a counter to the Soviets building Mach 3 bombers of their own, analogous to the B-70 Valkyrie. Since the B-70 itself was abandoned by the Americans for valid reasons, it was sensible to assume that the Russians would do the same.
The idea of using Mach 3 aircraft flying at improbably high altitudes to hit enemy air defenses with attacks they can't counter even if they see the things coming isn't...
completely stupid... But it relies on certain things going right, and the enemy not being able to invent viable counterweapons. Tactical lasers come to mind, since they work well at high altitude. And I gather that for "New New World" tech (the stuff that's been invented since 2020 in-setting), tactical laser weapons are a tenable thing that can be deployed aboard aircraft.
I have theorized long suspected that part of the Pacific War peace treaty involved a requirement to pay tribute reparations as well, which explains why the 7th largest economy in the world is currently nowhere as prosperous as it should rightfully be, even with the fall of the rest of the US.
To be fair, California's marvelous economy would probably be a lot less prosperous if it couldn't rely on cheap imports of food from, and exports of goods and services to, the rest of the US. Or on lavish supplies of water to support their agricultural sector, which come from inland areas that were probably not under reliable NCR control during the 2050s and '60s.
The United States is one of the world's largest and most prosperous free-trade zones, and has been for many decades; California's economy benefits from this greatly. If it had to rely entirely on overseas imports, lost its biggest export market (other parts of the US), and had the big multinational corporations centered there move away or die out and be replaced by megacorps based out of Russia or elsewhere... Well, California would not be such a powerhouse, as I said.
Not just out of sentiment, but because the Commonwealth serve as a blocking force that prevents Russia's Victorian proxies crawling up their ass and jostling their arm while they tussle with two of the three extant Pacific superpowers. That's not likely to change until the NCR think they can fight and win a multi-front war.
To be fair, given how easily
we stopped the Vicks, I don't think California would have trouble stopping them anymore. The decline of rail and road transportation across the Great Plains has basically made it impossible to ship forces overland across the continental United States. The Victorians could probably get an army over the Great Plains, but by the time they arrived they'd just be big bandit troops, and good tactics with attack helicopters would probably be more than enough to see them off long before they hit anything important.
During the Pacific War the Californians were actually threatened in this way... but then, that was back when they were cut off by a Russian naval blockade and when the interstate highways were more or less intact so that a sizeable Victorian-led force could actually
reach California.
The real threat Victoria poses to the NCR is that if the Russians can force a beachhead on Californian soil, or invade from the north or south, Victorian
sepoys may start hitting them from overland, transported to that territory by the Russians for that express purpose. And the Commonwealth has indeed pretty well nixed that, if only by killing almost all of Victoria's current generation of combat veterans and plunging the nation into a civil war.
-This is a long- and carefully planned rebellion.
You're unlikely to see any of that sort of dumb mob action shit here. California is going to just round up a whole lot of Russian government reps and agents and expel them, while putting civilians into protective custody if necessary.
-Storming embassies and consulates?
Straight up not going to happen. The NCR is seeking diplomatic support and international trade, which is not helped by ignoring international diplomatic norms and standards and allowing your enemies to paint you as outlaws.
Nor do they want to force the Russians into precipitate action.
-No, Russian companies will not be seized.
No one wants to trade in a nation which can seize your shit at a whim. They will simply find themselves having to pay market price for shit, and watched carefully. If they choose to leave *le shrug* good riddance.
It's not like we have any indication that there is significant Russian presence in the Cali economy anyway.
-Spies and espionage operations without diplomatic cover can and will be treated as spies.
Which means arrest, interrogation, trial and imprisonment.
They're sources of information and valuable bargaining chips, not just stuff to be destroyed.
-The Cali law enforcement system would be deployed to prevent that shit.
You're not going to see people being strung up.
The catch is, while the organized forces of rebellion will be all disciplined and orderly, as soon as the rebellion starts, a whole bunch of Californians
who weren't in on the plan are likely to start spontaneously trying to help.
Remember how the Iran Hostage Crisis began. Random student rebels basically charged in and seized the American Embassy
without telling Khomeini.
The Californian government has a plan. No doubt it has a good plan. But 'having a good plan' is not the same as 'entire national population acts as a coordinated hive mind.' Especially since of necessity, the plan cannot be known by an unmanageably large number of people. Most of the NCR population will be in the dark about what's going on until D-day of the operation. As such, no one can assume that they will simply stand idle and let the well-planned activities of the organized rebellion clean up around them.
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