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The flip side of that is, they're a lot more likely to go "oh shit" and have to arrange supply of new jets through some other means like buying secondhand Russian surplus MiG-29s from another Russian client state, and wind up with planes that don't suck and aren't sabotaged.

I have no doubt they will replace their air force with some kind of second-hand airforce. I just wonder if cali might string them along a bit to get them to waste time or resources.
 
The flip side of that is, they're a lot more likely to go "oh shit" and have to arrange supply of new jets through some other means like buying secondhand Russian surplus MiG-29s from another Russian client state, and wind up with planes that don't suck and aren't sabotaged.

I'd actually be surprised if this was all their jets, and frankly I doubt it was all their "Coastal Force" ships.

What we sank wasn't "the Victorian Coastal Force," it was "the part of the Coastal Force that happened to be at Buffalo on that day." Which probably wasn't all of it given that Victoria has a sizeable Atlantic coast and at a bare minimum needs to be able to keep up some semblance of a capacity to do customs patrol.

On the other hand, they may well have sent Buffalo much of their best, and much of the force the Victorians sent the second time would include stripping any Atlantic assets they have to provide crews, hulls, or both so we may have eventually gotten more of it than the Victorians originally planned to throw at us.

Meanwhile, the Victorians almost certainly have airbases distributed throughout their territory, and would probably not completely strip their ability to shoot down intruding planes around New York or other areas.

[I bet that the flight paths in and out of New York's airport(s) are a major matter of contention, since on the one hand the Viks don't want their airspace constantly getting poked at, there are a lot of foreign powers with an interest in being able to fly in... hm. I suspect that LaGuardia has been largely shut down in favor of air traffic coming into JFK, exaggerating the real life trend. JFK is a lot deeper into the city from the point of view of being farther from Victoria and less likely that your airliner gets shot down over a "misunderstanding."]

I doubt Poptart will give an official reason, but off the top of my head:

-Because that CMC division isn't actually there to strengthen the army, it's there to control the army by providing a military asset capable of restraining any likely-sized defection or revolt among the Victorian troops.
-Because the CMC divisions are an important part of Victoria's internal control and policing asset, and cannot be freely committed at will because they're a regime protection force.
-Because the Victorians are dealing with some kind of active rebellion or military threat on their borders and are using the CMC to contain it
-Because the CMC's higher-ups are in on the conspiracies and "big lies," more so than most in their government, and had a clue just how risky the expedition is, and didn't want to gamble everything they have on a poorly conceived assault plan that might well fail for reasons that might give their forces no way to fight back.

Any of those four reasons, or a combination of them, might apply. There might also be others.

Taking Toledo with a surprise amphibious landing would be remotely possible, The big problem is that without cost-intensive maintenance, the land to the east and south of Toledo has probably reverted towards its natural state: "The Great Black Swamp." So landing east of the city gets us bogged down, while landing west of the city means we're in considerable danger of getting hammer-and-anviled by the remaining Victorian field army forces. Or at least by enough of them to be serious problem.

It MIGHT be crazy enough to work, mind you.

Trying to take Buffalo with an amphibious landing would be fucking stupid. Firstly, our invasion fleet would be big and hard to miss, and they DO have radar. They'd see us coming, and while they might not be able to sink enough of our ships to matter, they could definitely alert defenders and begin moving to reinforce the city.

Secondly, there are enough militia units in Buffalo that we can't treat it as 'ungarrisoned.' Yes, those units are even worse trained than our own forces, but by a relatively narrow margin. They can tarpit us in place with swarms of hastily raised militias from the surrounding area while bringing in scraped-together forces from elsewhere- recalling men who joined the military and later mustered out, pressing recruits through the boot camps they still have, and mobilizing one or both of the remaining CMC divisions.

We might be able to hold Buffalo for a while, but we'd be under constant threat from the Victorians, with no real way to cut the supply lines they'd be using to push armies towards and into the city. It'd provide them an excellent opportunity to avenge the destruction of their army with a big Dien Bien Phu moment.

A raid might be doable, but we need to be careful about sending large land forces onto an enemy-controlled shore as part of a raid. The big problem is getting your guys back onto the boats when the raid is over, because the enemy will be pissed, increasingly numerous, and converging on your troops from all sides except the shore.

Like, that might not be our version of Dien Bien Phu (with us cast as the French), but it could totally be our version of Dieppe (with us cast as the Canadians).

They apparently felt the need to send their flagship the first time.

How about Anchor Pointe Marina? Perhaps even take Ceder Creek all the way around the south of Toledo?
 
Then take it, loot it, wreck it, and sail away laughing. Redeploy to take Toledo while they're freaking out. New York State is part of Victoria proper. When was the last time they suffered a loss on their home turf?

I mean, other than the last time we wrecked their face.
Well, the Victorians already looted Buffalo themselves to make that land supply convoy for the Leamington force (which will probably turn back soon now that they've gotten word said force no longer exists.) So I have my doubts we'd even get much.
 
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They apparently felt the need to send their flagship the first time.
Just because that was their high-prestige flagship (a sailing ship with 120mm mortars for carronades, really) doesn't mean their whole fleet was there. It may just mean that their senior admiral, expecting a battle, decided to show up.

How about Anchor Pointe Marina?
You could land there, but it doesn't solve the problem of the area reverting to swamp.

Perhaps even take Ceder Creek all the way around the south of Toledo?
Most of our shipping won't be able to fit up a relatively small creek. Is "Cedar Creek" a navigable river? Also, swamp.
 
It is also the problem that computers really don't do 'random'. The random number generator that a computer uses to create random numbers isn't actually random, its based off of a seed value of some sort.

I mean, neither are humans, and computers tend to do a better approximation if you do some chaos to a variable seed. But...
Hence why I was talking about unbiased dice.

D10s for instance are damn near perfect for creating OTP keys.

That is actually a very solid idea - I had previously thought you meant just rolling a single die for your key, which would need to be a very large die, but just I realized you were presumably referring to using the dice to generate digits. Now I feel silly. Anyway that should be a solid low-tech solution, and the dice wouldn't even have to be perfectly unbiased if you just kept using new ones.
 
I mean, neither are humans, and computers tend to do a better approximation if you do some chaos to a variable seed. But...


That is actually a very solid idea - I had previously thought you meant just rolling a single die for your key, which would need to be a very large die, but just I realized you were presumably referring to using the dice to generate digits. Now I feel silly. Anyway that should be a solid low-tech solution, and the dice wouldn't even have to be perfectly unbiased if you just kept using new ones.
Clear dice are better balanced because you can see any imperfections.
 
That is actually a very solid idea - I had previously thought you meant just rolling a single die for your key, which would need to be a very large die, but just I realized you were presumably referring to using the dice to generate digits. Now I feel silly. Anyway that should be a solid low-tech solution, and the dice wouldn't even have to be perfectly unbiased if you just kept using new ones.
Any but the most blatant bias in the die rolls would probably not make your cipher significantly more crackable over a statistically plausible number of daily messages sent to the high command (that is to say, a few hundred).

Sara Goldblum:

"This is all needlessly complicated and I think the report should be air-mailed."
 
The flip side of that is, they're a lot more likely to go "oh shit" and have to arrange supply of new jets through some other means like buying secondhand Russian surplus MiG-29s from another Russian client state, and wind up with planes that don't suck and aren't sabotaged.

I'd actually be surprised if this was all their jets, and frankly I doubt it was all their "Coastal Force" ships.

What we sank wasn't "the Victorian Coastal Force," it was "the part of the Coastal Force that happened to be at Buffalo on that day." Which probably wasn't all of it given that Victoria has a sizeable Atlantic coast and at a bare minimum needs to be able to keep up some semblance of a capacity to do customs patrol.

On the other hand, they may well have sent Buffalo much of their best, and much of the force the Victorians sent the second time would include stripping any Atlantic assets they have to provide crews, hulls, or both so we may have eventually gotten more of it than the Victorians originally planned to throw at us.

Meanwhile, the Victorians almost certainly have airbases distributed throughout their territory, and would probably not completely strip their ability to shoot down intruding planes around New York or other areas.

I actually think we can be reasonably confident of the Coastal Force. Yes the first sinking may not have gotten everything, but the Victoria's kept to a month time-table, that level of speed demands grabbing what they could get. Granted their ships are so small and cheap they could have already reassembled it in the time it took us to battle, but they can't have very many veteran sailors left. (Honestly, if I was a sailor on any lake community I would be seriously worried about Victoria deciding to mass press-gang.)

That said, I'm not fond of any offensive maneuvers at this time. We did well by exploiting defensive terrain, logistical burdens of, and good lines of retreat. We lose those if we try risky assaults on cities. Push them across the river, heck even cut off the river retreat if we are feeling bold, but I'd rather not try to siege either Toldeo much less, Buffaloe. It isn't that we can't take Toledo, but I doubt we can do it economically, in either material or lives, and I value the lives of our men far more highly than Victoria.
 
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I actually think we can be reasonably confident of the Coastal Force. Yes the first sinking may not have gotten everything, but the Victoria's kept to a month time-table, that level of speed demands grabbing what they could get. Granted their ships are so small and cheap they could have already reassembled it in the time it took us to battle, but they can't have very many veteran sailors left. (Honestly, if I was a sailor on any lake community I would be seriously worried about Victoria deciding to mass press-gang.)
Yeah. In discord, Poptart's said that the number of personnel in the Victorian Coastal Force that aren't dead or wounded can probably be counted in the single digits.
The fact that they likely have single-digit numbers of personnel who aren't casualties of one sort or another won't help.
 
I mean, neither are humans, and computers tend to do a better approximation if you do some chaos to a variable seed. But...


That is actually a very solid idea - I had previously thought you meant just rolling a single die for your key, which would need to be a very large die, but just I realized you were presumably referring to using the dice to generate digits. Now I feel silly. Anyway that should be a solid low-tech solution, and the dice wouldn't even have to be perfectly unbiased if you just kept using new ones.
Clear dice are better balanced because you can see any imperfections.

You're overthinking this. Just point a Geiger counter at a banana.
 
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Yeah. In discord, Poptart's said that the number of personnel in the Victorian Coastal Force that aren't dead or wounded can probably be counted in the single digits.
I'm not going to lie, I find this a perplexing choice on @PoptartProdigy 's part.

The Victorian Coastal Force, in terms of what it actually does all day realistically, is pretty much incapable of anything more ambitious than harbor patrol. But harbor patrol is still a thing, and someone needs to do it.

It seems very implausible to me that they had literally zero armed ships on the Atlantic coast at the time we hit Buffalo. It's just possible to me that their response to the loss of their Lake Erie fleet was to remove all of those armed ships and put them into service on Lake Erie, but even so, that's weird. It would represent them taking our naval superiority seriously to a degree that simply has not been seen in the rest of their actions so far.

What we've seen seems (to me) much more consistent with us having totally annihilated the Victorian's Lake Erie fleet, to the point where reinforcing it with armed ships from anywhere else in their territory has been dismissed by the Victorians as pointless. The local army commanders have at least tried to arm some ships to have some hope of fending off gunboat attacks on their supply transports, but that's about it.

This outcome would actually be very consistent with the idea of the Victorians viewing a "navy" as "an army that happens to have its own boats" in the same way that they seem to view "motorized infantry" as "an army that happens to operate its own trucks." There's no standardization; if your army unit loses its armed boat element, well, tough cookies. You don't automatically get to have the armed boats that belong to the Boston garrison for harbor patrol or whatever.

...

Likewise, I can believe that the Victorians put their entire limited stockpile of air-to-ground antitank and antiship missiles into this campaign only really enough for one or two sorties, and have now expended them. It would be very hard for me to believe that they committed every flyable jet to this campaign, though.

Not that @PoptartProdigy has explicitly confirmed that this is the case, though, with respect to the air force.

...

That said, I'm not fond of any offensive maneuvers at this time. We did well by exploiting defensive terrain, logistical burdens of, and good lines of retreat. We lose those if we try risky assaults on cities. Push them across the river, heck even cut off the river retreat if we are feeling bold, but I'd rather not try to siege either Toldeo much less, Buffaloe. It isn't that we can't take Toledo, but I doubt we can do it economically, in either material or lives, and I value the lives of our men far more highly than Victoria.
I sort of agree. If our intelligence gives us reason to think the Victorians have very heavily drawn down their forces actually in Toledo, I might be inclined to risk it... but it would have to be a very heavy draw-down indeed.

And I don't actually think it likely they'll do that. Because I'm pretty sure there's a Victorian preference for having the overall general of an army operate a loooong way back from the front (like Rumsford). If so, then among other things that means that the most powerful man in the invasion force is personally IN Toledo, and is surrounded by a population that does not love him and would happily steal his supplies or even storm his command center if they thought they could get away with it. He doesn't have the luxury of removing more than a small fraction of the division he has garrisoning Toledo before his own personal security is in danger.

You're overthinking this. Just point a geiger counter at a banana.
Sara Goldblum:

"You're overthinking this, but I like your style."
 
As an aid to anyone who might want to peruse them, here are some of the modern day nautical charts for the west end of Lake Erie.


One thing that sticks out is just how many of the modern-day marinas would be rendered unusable by a few years without maintenance, as they rely on a dredged channel to access the lake. Especially in the southwestern portion (eg. Toledo), Lake Erie gets very shallow quite a distance from shore. Even Sandusky Bay, which the Victorians have explicitly seized, would be very difficult to access with anything which draws more than four feet, if the channel hasn't been maintained.

Just about the only good natural harbor on the western end of the lake is Put-in-Bay in the Lake Erie Islands. Make of that what you will.
 
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Speaking of this,

@PoptartProdigy Considering the Victorians mobilized their entire army, Navy Coastal Force, and I presume all their actual jets, why weren't the other two CMC Divisions (or at least one of them) sent out as well? I imagine there was some concern about sending away everything, but in that case, wouldn't it have been better to maybe just hold back a single Army division and send another CMC one instead?

Now, I'm quite happy they didn't send more than one CMC division at us, but I'm curious as to their mindset and reasons for why that was the case.
No comment.
I'm not going to lie, I find this a perplexing choice on @PoptartProdigy 's part.

The Victorian Coastal Force, in terms of what it actually does all day realistically, is pretty much incapable of anything more ambitious than harbor patrol. But harbor patrol is still a thing, and someone needs to do it.

It seems very implausible to me that they had literally zero armed ships on the Atlantic coast at the time we hit Buffalo. It's just possible to me that their response to the loss of their Lake Erie fleet was to remove all of those armed ships and put them into service on Lake Erie, but even so, that's weird. It would represent them taking our naval superiority seriously to a degree that simply has not been seen in the rest of their actions so far.

What we've seen seems (to me) much more consistent with us having totally annihilated the Victorian's Lake Erie fleet, to the point where reinforcing it with armed ships from anywhere else in their territory has been dismissed by the Victorians as pointless. The local army commanders have at least tried to arm some ships to have some hope of fending off gunboat attacks on their supply transports, but that's about it.

This outcome would actually be very consistent with the idea of the Victorians viewing a "navy" as "an army that happens to have its own boats" in the same way that they seem to view "motorized infantry" as "an army that happens to operate its own trucks." There's no standardization; if your army unit loses its armed boat element, well, tough cookies. You don't automatically get to have the armed boats that belong to the Boston garrison for harbor patrol or whatever.

...

Likewise, I can believe that the Victorians put their entire limited stockpile of air-to-ground antitank and antiship missiles into this campaign only really enough for one or two sorties, and have now expended them. It would be very hard for me to believe that they committed every flyable jet to this campaign, though.

Not that @PoptartProdigy has explicitly confirmed that this is the case, though, with respect to the air force.
Well, I do, as usual, have a reason.

The crucial part is twofold; first, a Victorian's utter disdain for a navy as a tool for actual war, and the modern composition of Victorian navies, one born in Rumford's historical acquisition of such.

First, the Victorians don't actually believe that a real navy is a worthwhile military investment. Rumford quite literally believed that a speedboat with a spar torpedo was a match for a destroyer on the open water with only the slightest credence paid to the notion that surprise might be necessary. He believed that a two-mast sailing ship with infantry mortars tipped over on their sides near the waterline was enough to handle even the most lackadaisically-armed of pirate vessels. A navy, to Victoria, is at best something you sail out to tell other people to fuck off with. Alternatively, you blend into civilian traffic by virtue of the fact that your ships are, in fact, civilian, and trust that your (remember, Cultural Marxist) foes will obligingly not freeze civilian traffic in their military operations' vicinity, or blow up civilian vessels ignoring posted warnings to back off.

Second, to a true Victorian a navy is both disposable and scratch-built. Rumford's first navy, and the template upon which he eventually built his force, was built in a day. He observed the need for ships, he envisioned two different designs which he believed would work, and then he had them. "Production," consisted of impressing fishing trawlers and speed boats, and slapping the desired weaponry on them -- weaponry he already possessed. This produced ships which were dirt-cheap, came pre-crewed, blended in flawlessly with civilian traffic until the time came to strike, and produced absolutely no strain on his existing supply chains.

They were, and are, also worthless. However, the crucial element is that Victorians do not build tomorrow's navy; they produce, on demand, the navy they need right now.

When the war started, Victoria began leisurely impressing new ships and sailors into the service in order to make room for their experienced sailors to invade Detroit. By the time the pre-war coastal patrols hit the Seaway and headed inland, their replacements were already bumbling around Atlantic Victorian ports, ensuring that pirates and smugglers could not operate in broad daylight while within sight of shore without obfuscation or additional gas costs. As usual!

The actually, "experienced," crews and ships all mustered in Buffalo, as the Admiralty had a vague notion that they'd probably want numbers on hand -- although they had no idea what level of agony awaited them. And they died, ripped apart either in their berths or immediately outside them.

Victoria's response was then to impress everything with a keel they could find on Lake Erie, shuffle out randomly-chosen sailors to make room for survivors from the Buffalo Raid, tell everybody aboard that they had better fucking redeem their (for most of them) one-day-old service if they knew what's good for them, and make that the new Lakes Navy. This was the force you sank here.

So: Victoria's current navy consists of impressed vessels and crews with less than a season of experience, if that. You destroyed their entire established navy in Buffalo. The navy they raised to come after you here was also freshly-impressed, although it did not consist of their entire navy; the Atlantic patrols, while very small in number, survived unscathed by virtue of being completely beyond your adorable little murderbotes' reach.

The Atlantic patrols, you see...don't really count as sailors. They've been serving for a month and a half. Some of them aren't even armed yet. I do not count them when calculating how many sailors they have with which to rebuild their navy. They are effectively civilians.
 
Poptart, can you please start threadmarking the rolls? It makes trying to reread the thread a bitch to try and do.
I'm gonna second that request.
S'a good plan. Just trying to decide what index to put them in. Sidestory's a thought, but they'd clutter the canon. I try to keep Informational streamlined so vital resources are easier to access (I need to clean this quest's screens, though. They're not as useful as they should be). Media I keep clean against the ever-distant hopes of fanart.

Apocrypha? I suppose non-canon shit's not as vital.

I'll do it tomorrow. Tonight I DD'd for a party that ran late. Sleep soon. Shitpost now. Organizing later.
 
By the time the pre-war coastal patrols hit the Seaway and headed inland, their replacements were already bumbling around Atlantic Victorian ports, ensuring that pirates and smugglers could not operate in broad daylight while within sight of shore without obfuscation or additional gas costs. As usual!

God, the smugglers out of FCNY must make BANK.
 
No comment.

Well, I do, as usual, have a reason.

The crucial part is twofold; first, a Victorian's utter disdain for a navy as a tool for actual war, and the modern composition of Victorian navies, one born in Rumford's historical acquisition of such.

First, the Victorians don't actually believe that a real navy is a worthwhile military investment. Rumford quite literally believed that a speedboat with a spar torpedo was a match for a destroyer on the open water with only the slightest credence paid to the notion that surprise might be necessary. He believed that a two-mast sailing ship with infantry mortars tipped over on their sides near the waterline was enough to handle even the most lackadaisically-armed of pirate vessels. A navy, to Victoria, is at best something you sail out to tell other people to fuck off with. Alternatively, you blend into civilian traffic by virtue of the fact that your ships are, in fact, civilian, and trust that your (remember, Cultural Marxist) foes will obligingly not freeze civilian traffic in their military operations' vicinity, or blow up civilian vessels ignoring posted warnings to back off.

Second, to a true Victorian a navy is both disposable and scratch-built. Rumford's first navy, and the template upon which he eventually built his force, was built in a day. He observed the need for ships, he envisioned two different designs which he believed would work, and then he had them. "Production," consisted of impressing fishing trawlers and speed boats, and slapping the desired weaponry on them -- weaponry he already possessed. This produced ships which were dirt-cheap, came pre-crewed, blended in flawlessly with civilian traffic until the time came to strike, and produced absolutely no strain on his existing supply chains.

They were, and are, also worthless. However, the crucial element is that Victorians do not build tomorrow's navy; they produce, on demand, the navy they need right now.

When the war started, Victoria began leisurely impressing new ships and sailors into the service in order to make room for their experienced sailors to invade Detroit. By the time the pre-war coastal patrols hit the Seaway and headed inland, their replacements were already bumbling around Atlantic Victorian ports, ensuring that pirates and smugglers could not operate in broad daylight while within sight of shore without obfuscation or additional gas costs. As usual!

The actually, "experienced," crews and ships all mustered in Buffalo, as the Admiralty had a vague notion that they'd probably want numbers on hand -- although they had no idea what level of agony awaited them. And they died, ripped apart either in their berths or immediately outside them.

Victoria's response was then to impress everything with a keel they could find on Lake Erie, shuffle out randomly-chosen sailors to make room for survivors from the Buffalo Raid, tell everybody aboard that they had better fucking redeem their (for most of them) one-day-old service if they knew what's good for them, and make that the new Lakes Navy. This was the force you sank here.

So: Victoria's current navy consists of impressed vessels and crews with less than a season of experience, if that. You destroyed their entire established navy in Buffalo. The navy they raised to come after you here was also freshly-impressed, although it did not consist of their entire navy; the Atlantic patrols, while very small in number, survived unscathed by virtue of being completely beyond your adorable little murderbotes' reach.

The Atlantic patrols, you see...don't really count as sailors. They've been serving for a month and a half. Some of them aren't even armed yet. I do not count them when calculating how many sailors they have with which to rebuild their navy. They are effectively civilians.

Heh. Heh heh heh.

Screw conquest. Do we have Willie Pete shells?
 
I mean I do like the part where a Navy is practically free of upkeep and infrastructure, so it's even worse than early bronze age Navy; but free.
 
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