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If I'm being honest, and we don't intend to invest the Navy in the next battles, I'd actually consider sending them on another raid, this time with marines to seize liberate all available ships in the port.
 
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If I'm being honest, and we don't intend to invest the Navy in the next battles, I'd actually consider sending them on another raid, this time with marines to seize liberate all available ships in the port.
...I admit there's a certain appeal to going "we killed your navy twice and now we eat its corpse."
 
Okay yes but ideally you'd want to (pseudo)randomly generate the prime/co-prime to use, so they can't be guessed by someone with knowledge of whatever non-random mechanism you used instead.
Yeah but you dont really need a computer to do that. You just take a really really really big number and start working your way backwards to the nearest prime number.

EDIT: You can literally do this in microsoft excel if only excel was built to handle really really big numbers.
 
If I'm being honest, and we don't intend to invest the Navy in the next battles, I'd actually consider sending them on another raid, this time with marines to seize liberate all available ships in the port.
Since the bulk of their operational air force is busily being converted into a non-operational air force in and around Toledo, and since any serious efforts on their part to upgrade the port defenses by importing better weapons probably aren't fully ready yet, this might be just crazy enough to work.

The main problem is that if our gunboats all disappear for several days, the Victorians are likely to conclude that we're staging another raid and be alerted. Plus, they DO have enough light aircraft to go all Civil Air Patrol on the east end of the lake and spot us coming.

Remember how the bonuses stacked up last time:

...

Victorian Modifiers:

Good weather: 1 point.
Radar: 3 points.
Air force extant, but grounded: 0 points.
No naval patrols: -3 points.
Navy not maintaining ready status: -2 points.
Massive complacency: -1 point.

Points total: -2 points.

Then, you all will roll a d3 in response, representing how well you sneak.

Commonwealth Modifiers:

Veterans of hunt-and-kill missions: 1 point.
Low-profile vessels: 1 point.
Moving at night: 1 point.
Restricted to coastal waters: -1 point.

...

Now, "Massive Complacency" is pretty decidedly dead. "Not maintaining ready status" is dead, though with their navy itself dead that may take different forms. "No naval patrols" is there for a different reason, but extensive aerial scouting patrols are very likely- the Victorians must have done SOMETHING to make sure they'd see us coming next time.

It seems unlikely that the Victorians will be eating a -6 combined penalty that adds up to "The Viks had no idea this was coming and are totally unprepared for an attack of any kind" approximately six weeks after we just attacked them.

Meanwhile, we have no new bonuses working in our favor as far as I can tell.

All in all, avoiding detection is far less likely this time.

The mitigating good news is that the Viks probably can't do nearly as much about it if they do see us coming. Their first-line pilots and probably most of their ready operational F-16s are already in Toledo, or failing that scattered widely around the bottom of Lake Erie.
 
All in all, avoiding detection is far less likely this time.

The mitigating good news is that the Viks probably can't do nearly as much about it if they do see us coming. Their first-line pilots and probably most of their ready operational F-16s are already in Toledo, or failing that scattered widely around the bottom of Lake Erie.

On the other hand, Victorian stocks of A2G munitions are non-existent by now. And Navy is most certainly dead.

The most likely opposition is hastily-assembled shore batteries composed of half-century old pieces and manned by militias... Which, most likely, wouldn't be better than what our Navy had to deal with in the course of their riverine operations.
 
On the other hand, Victorian stocks of A2G munitions are non-existent by now. And Navy is most certainly dead.

The most likely opposition is hastily-assembled shore batteries composed of half-century old pieces and manned by militias... Which, most likely, wouldn't be better than what our Navy had to deal with in the course of their riverine operations.


How certain are we about the vic AGM munitions being spent? near zero isn't zero and degrees of failure could see a significant amount of our fleet, and marines, to a fiery death
 
How certain are we about the vic AGM munitions being spent? near zero isn't zero and degrees of failure could see a significant amount of our fleet, and marines, to a fiery death
The sabotage kicked into high gear so the planes won't even get off the ground. Not to mention that the fleet can be upgraded after this battle.
 
Since the bulk of their operational air force is busily being converted into a non-operational air force in and around Toledo, and since any serious efforts on their part to upgrade the port defenses by importing better weapons probably aren't fully ready yet, this might be just crazy enough to work.

The main problem is that if our gunboats all disappear for several days, the Victorians are likely to conclude that we're staging another raid and be alerted. Plus, they DO have enough light aircraft to go all Civil Air Patrol on the east end of the lake and spot us coming.

Remember how the bonuses stacked up last time:

...

Victorian Modifiers:

Good weather: 1 point.
Radar: 3 points.
Air force extant, but grounded: 0 points.
No naval patrols: -3 points.
Navy not maintaining ready status: -2 points.
Massive complacency: -1 point.

Points total: -2 points.

Then, you all will roll a d3 in response, representing how well you sneak.

Commonwealth Modifiers:

Veterans of hunt-and-kill missions: 1 point.
Low-profile vessels: 1 point.
Moving at night: 1 point.
Restricted to coastal waters: -1 point.

...

Now, "Massive Complacency" is pretty decidedly dead. "Not maintaining ready status" is dead, though with their navy itself dead that may take different forms. "No naval patrols" is there for a different reason, but extensive aerial scouting patrols are very likely- the Victorians must have done SOMETHING to make sure they'd see us coming next time.

It seems unlikely that the Victorians will be eating a -6 combined penalty that adds up to "The Viks had no idea this was coming and are totally unprepared for an attack of any kind" approximately six weeks after we just attacked them.

Meanwhile, we have no new bonuses working in our favor as far as I can tell.

All in all, avoiding detection is far less likely this time.

The mitigating good news is that the Viks probably can't do nearly as much about it if they do see us coming. Their first-line pilots and probably most of their ready operational F-16s are already in Toledo, or failing that scattered widely around the bottom of Lake Erie.

Hrmmm, good point.

Let's recruit some civilian ships and also send over a whole division to take the entire city out from under them. You want captured airframes? This is how you get them.

We already know that they've stripped the division there and the entire city itself to the bone to create that impromptu baggage train they're hoping to save their attacking forces with, and there's no way they're expecting an actual dedicated attack.
 
On the other hand, Victorian stocks of A2G munitions are non-existent by now. And Navy is most certainly dead.
I mentioned that. I'm not nearly as worried about air attacks this time.

The most likely opposition is hastily-assembled shore batteries composed of half-century old pieces and manned by militias... Which, most likely, wouldn't be better than what our Navy had to deal with in the course of their riverine operations.
I don't know about that.

I mean, you could be right. You could be. But by the same token, we could run into a second CMC division manning fixed heavy antitank missile batteries pressed into service for coast defense. Or anything in between.

It's vanishingly implausible that they sent every competent soldier in Victoria on this expedition, if only because they do have internal security threats and other enemies. Besides, it seems unlikely that Victoria was prepared to even supply its entire competent military force at an extended distance from its own soil.

It is a very bad idea for us to start assuming that the enemy is weak, stupid, or out of resources in a context where we don't have an accurate count of the resources available to them.

The sabotage kicked into high gear so the planes won't even get off the ground.
Bear in mind that this may mean something like "pre-existing sabotage of engine parts became a more serious problem as the engines were used more heavily in more sorties, causing the planes to end up worn out and incapable of flying." Other Victorian planes that stayed at home may still have a mission or two flyable just fine.

Not to mention that the fleet can be upgraded after this battle.
In the time it takes us to upgrade the fleet, the Victorians can import real weapons to defend their port with...

Hrmmm, good point.

Let's recruit some civilian ships and also send over a whole division to take the entire city out from under them. You want captured airframes? This is how you get them.
Uh... which city. Toledo? Or Buffalo?

We already know that they've stripped the division there and the entire city itself to the bone to create that impromptu baggage train they're hoping to save their attacking forces with...
WHat are you talking about? When did we come to know that?

and there's no way they're expecting an actual dedicated attack.
I mean yes, but that doesn't automatically make it a great idea.
 
oh another pleasant thought. we gutted the Victorians air force right before cali intends to rise up. So their about to have a hickup in their source of airframes right when they need to replace their airforce. Cali also might pull a fast one and do something like insist on upfront payment and then tell them to go fuck themselves instead of following through.
 
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I don't know about that.

I mean, you could be right. You could be. But by the same token, we could run into a second CMC division manning fixed heavy antitank missile batteries pressed into service for coast defense. Or anything in between.

It's vanishingly implausible that they sent every competent soldier in Victoria on this expedition, if only because they do have internal security threats and other enemies. Besides, it seems unlikely that Victoria was prepared to even supply its entire competent military force at an extended distance from its own soil.

It is a very bad idea for us to start assuming that the enemy is weak, stupid, or out of resources in a context where we don't have an accurate count of the resources available to them.


Sure. But it's the most plausible threat.
Victorian Navy was sunk twice, second time with no real capability to recover personnel. Creating new one even as capable as previousone was in this short a time is implausible.
Airforce had lost three quarters of their strike aircraft over Toledo, and the remnants are becoming increasingly unusable due to sabotage - and while they have more at home, it's reasonable to asume that Victorians stripped their forces staying at home to provide better combat readiness for expeditionary forces - including pilots trained best for A2G and stocks of munitions.

Meanwhile, we know that Victorians rely on militias to defend itself, and that at least some militias are maintaining assorted artillery pieces that are better than glorified mortars.
And in the course of riverine patrols, our navy most likely had dealt with more ambushes from shore than aircraft attacks.
 
I mean, you could be right. You could be. But by the same token, we could run into a second CMC division manning fixed heavy antitank missile batteries pressed into service for coast defense. Or anything in between.
Speaking of this,

@PoptartProdigy Considering the Victorians mobilized their entire army, Navy Coastal Force, and I presume all their actual jets, why weren't the other two CMC Divisions (or at least one of them) sent out as well? I imagine there was some concern about sending away everything, but in that case, wouldn't it have been better to maybe just hold back a single Army division and send another CMC one instead?

Now, I'm quite happy they didn't send more than one CMC division at us, but I'm curious as to their mindset and reasons for why that was the case.
 
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Yeah but you dont really need a computer to do that. You just take a really really really big number and start working your way backwards to the nearest prime number.

EDIT: You can literally do this in microsoft excel if only excel was built to handle really really big numbers.

Doing that by hand until you have enough keys for the projected duration of the conflict sounds absolutely agonizing but, fair enough, it would probably be effective.
 
Speaking of this,

@PoptartProdigy Considering the Victorians mobilized their entire army, Navy Coastal Force, and I presume all their actual jets, why weren't the other two CMC Divisions (or at least one of them) sent out as well? I imagine there was some concern about sending away everything, but in that case, wouldn't it have been better to maybe just hold back a single Army division and send another CMC one instead?

Now, I'm quite happy they didn't send more than one CMC division at us, but I'm curious as to their mindset and reasons for why that was the case.

I mean presumably they're on civilian control duties, these are the secret police after all
 
How many small towns are going to get an inkling that things didn't go so well when literally none of their brave volunteer lads come back?

I smiled as I typed this, but the more I think about it the more sad I get...
 
Doing that by hand until you have enough keys for the projected duration of the conflict sounds absolutely agonizing but, fair enough, it would probably be effective.
It is also the problem that computers really don't do 'random'. The random number generator that a computer uses to create random numbers isn't actually random, its based off of a seed value of some sort.
 
Hence why I was talking about unbiased dice.

D10s for instance are damn near perfect for creating OTP keys.
 
oh another pleasant thought. we gutted the Victorians air force right before cali intends to rise up. So their about to have a hickup in their source of airframes right when they need to replace their airforce. Cali also might pull a fast one and do something like insist on upfront payment and then tell them to go fuck themselves instead of following through.

Sister Cali is about to have a very good excuse for building hundreds of high quality airframes! Planes that the Russains can't object to Sister Cali building, and may even pay for.

> : 3
 
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I mentioned that. I'm not nearly as worried about air attacks this time.

I don't know about that.

I mean, you could be right. You could be. But by the same token, we could run into a second CMC division manning fixed heavy antitank missile batteries pressed into service for coast defense. Or anything in between.

It's vanishingly implausible that they sent every competent soldier in Victoria on this expedition, if only because they do have internal security threats and other enemies. Besides, it seems unlikely that Victoria was prepared to even supply its entire competent military force at an extended distance from its own soil.

It is a very bad idea for us to start assuming that the enemy is weak, stupid, or out of resources in a context where we don't have an accurate count of the resources available to them.

Bear in mind that this may mean something like "pre-existing sabotage of engine parts became a more serious problem as the engines were used more heavily in more sorties, causing the planes to end up worn out and incapable of flying." Other Victorian planes that stayed at home may still have a mission or two flyable just fine.

In the time it takes us to upgrade the fleet, the Victorians can import real weapons to defend their port with...

Uh... which city. Toledo? Or Buffalo?

WHat are you talking about? When did we come to know that?

I mean yes, but that doesn't automatically make it a great idea.

Toledo is the obvious choice, but what the hell, let's take Buffalo. It's not garrisoned, and it completely cuts them off. As long as we're pissing them off, let's piss them off hard and take a piece of their home territory.
 
Toledo is the obvious choice, but what the hell, let's take Buffalo. It's not garrisoned, and it completely cuts them off. As long as we're pissing them off, let's piss them off hard and take a piece of their home territory.
It's at the end of a long supply chain and surrounded by enemy territory. We could take it, maybe, but we couldn't hold it.
 
It's at the end of a long supply chain and surrounded by enemy territory. We could take it, maybe, but we couldn't hold it.

Then take it, loot it, wreck it, and sail away laughing. Redeploy to take Toledo while they're freaking out. New York State is part of Victoria proper. When was the last time they suffered a loss on their home turf?

I mean, other than the last time we wrecked their face.
 
oh another pleasant thought. we gutted the Victorians air force right before cali intends to rise up. So their about to have a hickup in their source of airframes right when they need to replace their airforce. Cali also might pull a fast one and do something like insist on upfront payment and then tell them to go fuck themselves instead of following through.
The flip side of that is, they're a lot more likely to go "oh shit" and have to arrange supply of new jets through some other means like buying secondhand Russian surplus MiG-29s from another Russian client state, and wind up with planes that don't suck and aren't sabotaged.

Speaking of this,

@PoptartProdigy Considering the Victorians mobilized their entire army, Navy Coastal Force, and I presume all their actual jets...
I'd actually be surprised if this was all their jets, and frankly I doubt it was all their "Coastal Force" ships.

What we sank wasn't "the Victorian Coastal Force," it was "the part of the Coastal Force that happened to be at Buffalo on that day." Which probably wasn't all of it given that Victoria has a sizeable Atlantic coast and at a bare minimum needs to be able to keep up some semblance of a capacity to do customs patrol.

On the other hand, they may well have sent Buffalo much of their best, and much of the force the Victorians sent the second time would include stripping any Atlantic assets they have to provide crews, hulls, or both so we may have eventually gotten more of it than the Victorians originally planned to throw at us.

Meanwhile, the Victorians almost certainly have airbases distributed throughout their territory, and would probably not completely strip their ability to shoot down intruding planes around New York or other areas.

[I bet that the flight paths in and out of New York's airport(s) are a major matter of contention, since on the one hand the Viks don't want their airspace constantly getting poked at, there are a lot of foreign powers with an interest in being able to fly in... hm. I suspect that LaGuardia has been largely shut down in favor of air traffic coming into JFK, exaggerating the real life trend. JFK is a lot deeper into the city from the point of view of being farther from Victoria and less likely that your airliner gets shot down over a "misunderstanding."]

...why weren't the other two CMC Divisions (or at least one of them) sent out as well? I imagine there was some concern about sending away everything, but in that case, wouldn't it have been better to maybe just hold back a single Army division and send another CMC one instead?

Now, I'm quite happy they didn't send more than one CMC division at us, but I'm curious as to their mindset and reasons for why that was the case.
I doubt Poptart will give an official reason, but off the top of my head:

-Because that CMC division isn't actually there to strengthen the army, it's there to control the army by providing a military asset capable of restraining any likely-sized defection or revolt among the Victorian troops.
-Because the CMC divisions are an important part of Victoria's internal control and policing asset, and cannot be freely committed at will because they're a regime protection force.
-Because the Victorians are dealing with some kind of active rebellion or military threat on their borders and are using the CMC to contain it
-Because the CMC's higher-ups are in on the conspiracies and "big lies," more so than most in their government, and had a clue just how risky the expedition is, and didn't want to gamble everything they have on a poorly conceived assault plan that might well fail for reasons that might give their forces no way to fight back.

Any of those four reasons, or a combination of them, might apply. There might also be others.

Toledo is the obvious choice, but what the hell, let's take Buffalo. It's not garrisoned, and it completely cuts them off. As long as we're pissing them off, let's piss them off hard and take a piece of their home territory.
Taking Toledo with a surprise amphibious landing would be remotely possible, The big problem is that without cost-intensive maintenance, the land to the east and south of Toledo has probably reverted towards its natural state: "The Great Black Swamp." So landing east of the city gets us bogged down, while landing west of the city means we're in considerable danger of getting hammer-and-anviled by the remaining Victorian field army forces. Or at least by enough of them to be serious problem.

It MIGHT be crazy enough to work, mind you.

Trying to take Buffalo with an amphibious landing would be fucking stupid. Firstly, our invasion fleet would be big and hard to miss, and they DO have radar. They'd see us coming, and while they might not be able to sink enough of our ships to matter, they could definitely alert defenders and begin moving to reinforce the city.

Secondly, there are enough militia units in Buffalo that we can't treat it as 'ungarrisoned.' Yes, those units are even worse trained than our own forces, but by a relatively narrow margin. They can tarpit us in place with swarms of hastily raised militias from the surrounding area while bringing in scraped-together forces from elsewhere- recalling men who joined the military and later mustered out, pressing recruits through the boot camps they still have, and mobilizing one or both of the remaining CMC divisions.

We might be able to hold Buffalo for a while, but we'd be under constant threat from the Victorians, with no real way to cut the supply lines they'd be using to push armies towards and into the city. It'd provide them an excellent opportunity to avenge the destruction of their army with a big Dien Bien Phu moment.

Then take it, loot it, wreck it, and sail away laughing. Redeploy to take Toledo while they're freaking out. New York State is part of Victoria proper. When was the last time they suffered a loss on their home turf?

I mean, other than the last time we wrecked their face.
A raid might be doable, but we need to be careful about sending large land forces onto an enemy-controlled shore as part of a raid. The big problem is getting your guys back onto the boats when the raid is over, because the enemy will be pissed, increasingly numerous, and converging on your troops from all sides except the shore.

Like, that might not be our version of Dien Bien Phu (with us cast as the French), but it could totally be our version of Dieppe (with us cast as the Canadians).
 
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