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Victoria Falls: A Post-Collapse American Nation Quest [Down With Victoria!]

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PoptartProdigy said:
Well, that has the tenor of an expert answer. :D

How much expert/specialized knowledge would one need to possess in order to do this sort of thing?
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It is at least adjacent to an expert answer. My day job for the last 15 years or so has been in Military Intelligence. :)

I was never a signals intelligence man myself, but I work closely with our teams. To do good traffic analysis ideally you would have at least training and several months of experience. It's not overly complicated, but it does take some practice to get decent ad. Basic level traffic analysis, where you are just really kind of eyeballing the volume, only takes a little bit of training and is fairly simple. However, it does require your enemy cooperate by actually making some noise for you to listen in on.

That having been said, it's not super difficult to have somebody just listening in and say "this is a headquarters because everyone's talking to it, and it's bigger than the other one over here."
 
BoredStudent1414 said:
The supply malus was exponential if I remember correctly. That is -1,-2,-4,-8, and so on. It is probably not until the third clash with the eastern landing forces assuming they are not resupplied will the supply malus really bite.
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I think it's going to hurt the Victorians well before the third turn rolls around.

I'm guessing that Victorians will probably have the following modifers next turn (or something roughly like them):

Numbers: 4 points (A battalion of their troops is effectively gone.)
Troop Quality: 2 points (Unchanged.)
Air Supremacy: 1 point (Difficult to say. Since our air force is gutted, this may be higher.)
Fanaticism: 1 point (Unchanged.)
No hardened assets: -2 points (Unchanged.)
No land transportation: -2 points (Extrapolation from "Inadequate landing craft.")
Supply Attrition: -1 point (Assumed.)​

Their total is 3 or 4, maybe 5. Ours is likely unchanged, and hangs at four. We'd be fighting at a tie, probably. Generously, at a point disadvantage. Either way, the loss of a point takes them from an advantage to roughly a tie. It makes it very difficult for them to score an unquestionable victory. Given their tendency to fight with human waves, lets say they force us back again, with similar casualties. Next turn, they'd be at:

Numbers: 3 points (2 down.)
Troop Quality : 2 points (Unchanged.)
Air Supremacy: 1 point (Maybe 2 points.)
Fanaticism: 1 point (Unchanged.)
No hardened assets: -2 points (Again, unchanged.)
No land transportation: -2 points (See above.)
Supply Attrition: -2 points (Assumed.)​

They'd be fighting at 1 point to our 4. Let's say they've got total air domination, which gives them 2 points instead. Then they'd only have a ten percent chance of tying. Next turn, it would literally be impossible for them to win:

Numbers: 3 points (Very generously.)
Troop Quality: 2 points (Unchanged.)
Air Supremacy: 1 point (Again, maybe higher.)
Fanaticism: 1 point (Still crazy.)
No hardened assets: -2 points (Don't think they can airdrop tanks.)
No land transportation: -2 points (Well, other than their feet.)
Supply Attrition: -4 points (Ow.)​

Best case, they'd be fighting without any bonus or malus. More likely, our reinforcements and ongoing air attrition would put them solidly in the negatives. Unless we're also is really dire straits, they just lose that turn, and without resupply they'd be completely wiped out after that, since hitting a -8 modifier is effectively lethal for any army up against a credible enemy.

So it looks to me like supply maluses start biting immediately, and unless the Victorians win in two turns, they're probably doomed. Three turns from now, they probably won't be even able to win. And after that, they probably just die. It might be worth committing more assets this turn to the eastern front, just so we can ensure the Victorian advance is stalled, because right now is the point at which they're the most threatening, and a solid defeat right now could basically eliminate them as a threat to our forces. That, in turn, would let us pivot south and prepare for their main thrust.
 
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One idea I had was asking if the Detroit Militia could be deployed behind the second "strong" fortification line, in order to contain any potential breakthroughs and/or force them to essentially fight another round of combat while the previous one is still going on.
Main reason NOT to do it, that I can see, would be if the minor barricades roll well and inflict particularly heavy casualties or something. See, my (primary) concern (regarding the eastern front) is that each round they "win", even if it's reducing their chances for the next round, brings them closer to threatening Detroit. The way the supply penalties work, they're almost guaranteed to loose a third round of combat... Which is why it would be in their best interest to break through in two.

EDIT: Actually, this entire thing sort of hinges on the assumption that the Windsor area is now considered part of Detroit. Is this the case?
 
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Horologer said:
I think it's going to hurt the Victorians well before the third turn rolls around.

I'm guessing that Victorians will probably have the following modifers next turn (or something roughly like them):

Numbers: 4 points (A battalion of their troops is effectively gone.)
Troop Quality: 2 points (Unchanged.)
Air Supremacy: 1 point (Difficult to say. Since our air force is gutted, this may be higher.)
Fanaticism: 1 point (Unchanged.)
No hardened assets: -2 points (Unchanged.)
No land transportation: -2 points (Extrapolation from "Inadequate landing craft.")
Supply Attrition: -1 point (Assumed.)​

Their total is 3 or 4, maybe 5. Ours is likely unchanged, and hangs at four. We'd be fighting at a tie, probably. Generously, at a point disadvantage. Either way, the loss of a point takes them from an advantage to roughly a tie. It makes it very difficult for them to score an unquestionable victory. Given their tendency to fight with human waves, lets say they force us back again, with similar casualties. Next turn, they'd be at:

Numbers: 3 points (2 down.)
Troop Quality : 2 points (Unchanged.)
Air Supremacy: 1 point (Maybe 2 points.)
Fanaticism: 1 point (Unchanged.)
No hardened assets: -2 points (Again, unchanged.)
No land transportation: -2 points (See above.)
Supply Attrition: -2 points (Assumed.)​

They'd be fighting at 1 point to our 4. Let's say they've got total air domination, which gives them 2 points instead. Then they'd only have a ten percent chance of tying. Next turn, it would literally be impossible for them to win:

Numbers: 3 points (Very generously.)
Troop Quality: 2 points (Unchanged.)
Air Supremacy: 1 point (Again, maybe higher.)
Fanaticism: 1 point (Still crazy.)
No hardened assets: -2 points (Don't think they can airdrop tanks.)
No land transportation: -2 points (Well, other than their feet.)
Supply Attrition: -4 points (Ow.)​

Best case, they'd be fighting without any bonus or malus. More likely, our reinforcements and ongoing air attrition would put them solidly in the negatives. Unless we're also is really dire straits, they just lose that turn, and without resupply they'd be completely wiped out after that, since hitting a -8 modifier is effectively lethal for any army up against a credible enemy.

So it looks to me like supply maluses start biting immediately, and unless the Victorians win in two turns, they're probably doomed. Three turns from now, they probably won't be even able to win. And after that, they probably just die. It might be worth committing more assets this turn to the eastern front, just so we can ensure the Victorian advance is stalled, because right now is the point at which they're the most threatening, and a solid defeat right now could basically eliminate them as a threat to our forces. That, in turn, would let us pivot south and prepare for their main thrust.
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It's an interesting exercise to compare and contrast my analysis from last week and yours. ;)

Suffice to say that I don't agree that they're likely to suffer that crippling a "No Land Transportation" malus just from having to walk a day to reach our next line of defenses. "Inadequate Landing Craft" is a really serious malus for an amphibious landing because it means your troops get caught wading ashore in a hail of bullets which is just the worst, you have no covering fire from direct-fire weapons, you can't deliver heavy equipment to the beach, and so on.

I do agree with your thesis that if that supply penalty works the way we think, they're going to be effectively spent as a fighting force after 1-2 more "rounds" of combat.

I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion about reinforcing the eastern front right now, because a lot depends on whether the southern army is in a position to launch a second pincer of the attack. They have lots of mobile assets and if they can get them through the difficult terrain south of our defenses quickly enough, could make it a lot harder for our troops to disengage and fall back to the second line without the Devil Brigade covering the retreat. We need to be ready to heavily reinforce the southern front because if they hit that we're probably going to have to defend it with everything we've got just to have a chance. By contrast, the eastern front defense can still afford to fall back once more, and are unlikely to be driven back far into Windsor even if forced to fall back on the city.

One thing we might do is get units of the Detroit militia to start taking up positions on the outskirts of Windsor to provide temporary cover for our troops if they DO have to fall back from Essex.

[looks up]

SUDDENLY A WILD BDUN NINJA APPEARS

oh hey

bdun140 said:
One idea I had was asking if the Detroit Militia could be deployed behind the second "strong" fortification line, in order to contain any potential breakthroughs and/or force them to essentially fight another round of combat while the previous one is still going on.
Main reason NOT to do it, that I can see, would be if the minor barricades roll well and inflict particularly heavy casualties or something. See, my (primary) concern (regarding the eastern front) is that each round they "win", even if it's reducing their chances for the next round, brings them closer to threatening Detroit. The way the supply penalties work, they're almost guaranteed to loose a third round of combat... Which is why it would be in their best interest to break through in two.

EDIT: Actually, this entire thing sort of hinges on the assumption that the Windsor area is now considered part of Detroit. Is this the case?
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Windsor has been integrated into Detroit which is why we're even on the Canadian side of the river anyway. The area we're fighting for has more or less been confirmed by Poptart to be a major agricultural region for the Detroiters (they may have food issues later this year :( ).

That said, I'm cautiously in favor of shifting the Detroit militia as you describe because they're our weakest force (1/5 training and probably little or no artillery, hopefully technicals though), BUT can reasonably be asked to hold defensive positions in the city and serving in that capacity could act as reinforcements while the bulk of the Commonwealth troops engage the Viks south of the city.
 
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Weird Guy said:
Would the incoming bad weather effect the Victorian F-16s at all? Especially with the sabotage?
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If they fly into bad enough turbulence or something we could see crashes, and it's definitely going to be bad for visibility of our forces from the air which will in turn limit their ability to hit us.

From the look if it, the sabotage is affecting their munitions (disrupting guidance) and possibly their avionics (radar, radios, et cetera) more than the airframe itself. I wouldn't be surprised if that's true, because sabotage of the engines and airframe could get pretty obvious and the Californians are trying to do this subtly as I understand it.
 
Simon_Jester said:
I'd fondly hope so.
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PoptartProdigy said:
But it didn't happen that way. You are looking at reports, and the expected farming yields this autumn are...staggering. Enough to feed everybody. Enough to run up a mild surplus. And this with incomplete standardization! You've focused on bringing the best to the worst-off, hoping for maximum effect per unit of equipment produced. There is still a wide spectrum of varying quality between the subsistence farmers you've supplied and the state-of-the-art you've just gotten down handing out, and you haven't touched it, yet.
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That seems to be the case?
 
[X] Plan Raise Periscope

It's times like this that a focus on knowing what's going on is vital, so I'll take any plan with recon as a major part. Mainly, because the other thrust hasn't been felt out through way of concerted firefight yet.
 
Changing my vote to:

[X] Plan Raise Periscope
-[X][AIR] The air force is shattered, its pilots badly burnt out. Stand them down and give them a break. In the unlikely event that you need to piss away four planes at a later date, you can always call them back up again. It's not like their odds of making a dent will meaningfully improve by staying geared up.
-[X][NAVY] Enemy air supremacy and foul weather, in shallow-drafted boats with no deck armor? Yeah, no. Pull your gunships back, and await a better opportunity. Time plays to your advantage with both of these problems. The army can endure, but every ship you lose is precious.
-[X] Write-in: You don't know what the other half of the Victorian army is doing. Make it a priority to get some reconnaissance information on the situation south of the defense lines on the south side of the city, by whatever means seem feasible and not needlessly dangerous. This may include naval action after the weather clears, but not air action with the handful of planes you have left.

[X] Plan Burn The Land & Boil The Sea
 
rikalous said:
Chicago will of course be more than happy to help our hungry neighbors in their time of need. What kind of soulless monster would do otherwise?

*staring unblinkingly at everybody who gouged us last year*
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You know, spreading around food aid this year might be a good way to reduce the DC of Soothing Fears. And to subvert Local Allies.

"Hey bro, I heard you were embargoing us. Have a sandwich."
 
Simon_Jester said:
That said, I'm cautiously in favor of shifting the Detroit militia as you describe because they're our weakest force (1/5 training and probably little or no artillery, hopefully technicals though), BUT can reasonably be asked to hold defensive positions in the city and serving in that capacity could act as reinforcements while the bulk of the Commonwealth troops engage the Viks south of the city.
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My own worry about this is that the Detroit militia isn't listed as having technicals, and that makes we worried the might lack general transportation as well, which would mean they can't retreat from the lines as well, and retreating is a key part of our strategy. If we make it to the third line I absolutely support them swapping in.

rikalous said:
Chicago will of course be more than happy to help our hungry neighbors in their time of need. What kind of soulless monster would do otherwise?

*staring unblinkingly at everybody who gouged us last year*
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To be fair, Detroit wasn't the one embargoing us, and the only reason they are in trouble is that they allied with us. I think we are morally obligated to help them. Strategically as well, because it would kill our PR to defend Detroit and lose it to starvation.

Simon_Jester said:
You know, spreading around food aid this year might be a good way to reduce the DC of Soothing Fears. And to subvert Local Allies.

"Hey bro, I heard you were embargoing us. Have a sandwich."
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Hey are you hungry and cold, have some food and coal, we just have soooooo much of it. Man we would love to give more, but that nasty embargo means we can't trade it with you right now. So sorry?
 
clockworkchaos said:
To be fair, Detroit wasn't the one embargoing us, and the only reason they are in trouble is that they allied with us. I think we are morally obligated to help them. Strategically as well, because it would kill our PR to defend Detroit and lose it to starvation.
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Sure, sure, I just enjoy the contrast with where we were turn 1.

Food aid, beyond our obligations to our ally, kinda feels like a power move. "We went from desperation last year to excess this year. Imagine what we'll look like next year."
 
clockworkchaos said:
My own worry about this is that the Detroit militia isn't listed as having technicals, and that makes we worried the might lack general transportation as well, which would mean they can't retreat from the lines as well, and retreating is a key part of our strategy. If we make it to the third line I absolutely support them swapping in.
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Well, I was figuring to have them park in the built-up outskirts of Windsor. That, specifically is a line we really want to hold because otherwise the city takes great damage and/or our troops have their backs to the river. Plus, assuming the Victorians even get past Essex and get there, they'll be running out of supplies and unlikely to be able to break a line held by both the militia AND the elements of the second and third divisions that have successfully withdrawn to the outskirts of the city.

We've been told to expect the boundaries of the city to count as fortifications for light infantry without support, which is a good description of the eastern army.

To be fair, Detroit wasn't the one embargoing us, and the only reason they are in trouble is that they allied with us. I think we are morally obligated to help them. Strategically as well, because it would kill our PR to defend Detroit and lose it to starvation.

Hey are you hungry and cold, have some food and coal, we just have soooooo much of it. Man we would love to give more, but that nasty embargo means we can't trade it with you right now. So sorry?
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Yes to both.
 
Simon_Jester said:
...Not enough.

What do you have in mind?
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Another mission straight out of Ace Combat, that is, a night strike at Victorian airstrip at Toledo.
Why it might work?
a) We have SAMs. That's important, because with the distances involved and with our deployments we have (some of) them 30-60 klicks away from Toledo. That's quite enough for our search radars to be able to detect Victorian airplanes, taking off and landing on their airstrip.
This, along with some people making smart faces over maps, would allow us to locate position of Victorian airbase with reasonable degree of accuracy.
b) As far as they're aware, Victorians have achieved aerial superiority. Hell, as far as we're aware, they did so. They are likely to disregard the chance of aerial attack.
c) Victorians have 30-50 years of operating their airforce, and the last time they faced a credible aerial threat was when they fought Pacific Republic. After that, they had little to none opponents who could contend their control of the sky.
Their AA is likely bad, if not non-existent, and they probably don't have the practice of maintaining planes ready to launch on 2-5 minutes warning at all times.
Also they might lack such things as hardened shelters for aircraft, as Victorian armed forces are famous for their low numbers of support units and for the last decades they genuinely didn't have the need for such things.
d) Timing. Assuming our planes do not get noticed before they're in vicinity of the target, Victorians simply wouldn't have the time to launch pursuit, as in ~5-10 minutes after strike the planes would be solidly under our SAM umbrella.
And, obviously, we don't carry out the strike if Victorians have some birds in the air.

Thus, if our remaining planes can carry enough ordnance to make an impact, such an operation would be nice.
Otherwise too, as it might spook Victorians into maintaining aerial patrols at all times, thus lessening amount of combat sorties and maybe even attritioning some planes via crashing.
 
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