Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

[Anderein]

I'm honestly less interested in the rarer, "Use the senile Soverign Elder as an attack dog in a coup" scenario, and more in the question of otherwise using or abusing them in other ways, since there's a lot of activity far below that intensity that they could have done but didn't. Think of all the people who seek the protection of aging or dying monarchs in the past, seeking to use them to be one step ahead when they finally croak it and the question of "who's next/what's next" comes up. Or so on.

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On the small or large scale, it doesn't make any difference. When a Sovereign retreats from the world, they become a resource--something to be used selectively, rationed for times of need. And the same principles that keep Faction A of the clan from breaking into the armory and taking all the most powerful talismans, or monopolizing the crafters, or taking all the drugs, are also going to keep them from taking advantage of the Sovereigns. And primarily, that's opposing force is all of the other people who want to use those resources, and who haven't yet had a convincing argument for opening up the coffers. But they might, so you'd better not take them for yourself until then! Whether it's about dosing up your favorite son or trying to topple the government, a clan still only has so many resources to spend, and the primary restraint to use is all of the other things that those resources could be used for.

I said this part as a joke, so to restate it in all seriousness: I would say that this happened because the Meng Reformers were distracted. The Meng Reactionaries haven't had a useful way to leverage their power in a very, very long time. What have they been able to do other than deny, to try to stand athwart history and say stop? They have no notable allies because no one else is advancing the kind of policy they'd approve of, and that means they have little in the way of ability to leverage their power outside the Meng and outside the Meng lands. They weren't properly counterbalanced here because for a long time, they've been a wholly internal concern, so their big external move was a surprise.

And I'd say further that part of the reason the Reformers were so distracted was that until this summit, they were in the same situation: no one was advancing in the direction they wanted, so they've largely been only an internal faction within the Meng, without meaningful external allies or external power except insofar as individuals could manage. They leapt a little too eagerly onto a chance to change that, which means that the Meng less focused on keeping the Reactionaries in check weren't doing the job for them, because the Reformers have been handling it for so long. The Reformers haven't been able to do much else.

It would probably be to the benefit of Ling Qi's emerging faction to keep an eye on the Meng politics as all of this is falling out. If 50% are Weilu Conservatives and 25% are Weilu Reformers and 25% are Weilu Reactionaries, and the Reactionaries are getting purged, then someone's going to have to take responsibility for the 75% failing to check them. And I would suspect that the 50% is going to say the 25% should bear most of the blame, and considering that remaining 25% likes us the most, that's very much our problem.

 

[The Laurent]

It would probably be to the benefit of Ling Qi's emerging faction to keep an eye on the Meng politics as all of this is falling out. If 50% are Weilu Conservatives and 25% are Weilu Reformers and 25% are Weilu Reactionaries, and the Reactionaries are getting purged, then someone's going to have to take responsibility for the 75% failing to check them. And I would suspect that the 50% is going to say the 25% should bear most of the blame, and considering that remaining 25% likes us the most, that's very much our problem.

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I honestly think this is a pretty flawed analysis of how things would go? Like there's no real indication that that's the direction of things, and I don't knwo if there's even context that would make that make sense.

 

[Anderein]

I honestly think this is a pretty flawed analysis of how things would go? Like there's no real indication that that's the direction of things, and I don't knwo if there's even context that would make that make sense.

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Any system that doesn't pursue its own perpetuation will die. A political faction will jockey for its own political power, or else it wouldn't have grown large enough or strong enough to have had power in the first place. The Weilu Conservatives are going to try to make the Weilu Reformers hold the bag for all this happening. It will happen naturally, because they have more power and that's the nature of imbalances of power, the same way wind flows between areas of differing pressure. If anything else happens, it's because someone stood in the path of that flowing stream with enough power to divert it from its natural course, and Ling Qi and friends should probably try to make that happen.

 

[DeadmanwalkingXI]

Any system that doesn't pursue its own perpetuation will die. A political faction will jockey for its own political power, or else it wouldn't have grown large enough or strong enough to have had power in the first place. The Weilu Conservatives are going to try to make the Weilu Reformers hold the bag for all this happening. It will happen naturally, because they have more power and that's the nature of imbalances of power, the same way wind flows between areas of differing pressure. If anything else happens, it's because someone stood in the path of that flowing stream with enough power to divert it from its natural course, and Ling Qi and friends should probably try to make that happen.

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This is true of the political faction's leadership if they can get away with it certainly, but that doesn't mean it will work. They need actual justifications if they are to convince the actual rank and file members of the Meng, who may technically be Weilu Conservatives but are certainly not active politically, to fall in line. And, for added fun, they can't actually lie while doing so because this will be happening while the Duchess Cai investigates the matter and lies will not serve them there.

In short, this is really unlikely because you're treating this like they're all career politicians, not a group of people most of whom are not interested much in politics, and are ignoring the fact that scapegoating will fail unless it's factually accurate due to the Cai situation.

 

[promethus]

The blame would end in probably where cai want it to end. There will be a harsher eye on meng going forward and cai and the general both belive more on reformers so trying to turn on them is not the action conservatives would probably take

 

[Ryumancer]

My imgur account is dead so I'm using a different image uploading site this time.

@yrsillar Haven't done this in forever, but here's new art from me finally. This time, it's Xia Lin!

Spoiler: Xia Lin

image description:

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She looks incredibly Fire Emblem (well, not modern FE, but, y'know.), and while that seems a bit odd for the setting, I can't say it's a bad look.

 

[veekie]

It doesn't fit the political logic that we know.
Firstly, the Reactionaries would be majorly discredited, but because of the investigation, they won't be entirely annihilated. I'd expect no more than 10% of their number to be sufficiently involved as to be directly implicated in treason. They'd be weakened, and they'd be very much reminded that consequences exist, but they won't cease to exist. Expect them to try to stonewall us in entirely legal manners.

Secondly, the Conservatives are likely going to split, a good chunk are going to distance themselves from the Reactionaries for bringing trouble via treason, but at the same time a considerable number would also distance from the Progressives, because as part of their heading off collective punishment, Kin Fought Kin.
I'd expect possibly forming an Isolationist bloc in response to all this happening.

Thirdly, the Progressives would have their ardor dimmed. While objectively speaking we prevented a disaster for them on multiple levels, our actions also put them in a position where they had to kill their relatives to avert a greater disaster. Some would likely peel off the bloc, since they didn't like the consequences.

So rather than the Progressives taking the clear lead in favor of us in the wake of these events, its more likely to reshuffle into 4-5 factions with only a tentative dominance of any one faction.

 

[Elsecaller]

I'm not to sure about that. Meng Deming for instance is going to rally as much support against the reactionaries as possible. The reformists weren't the ones that attacked kin first, that goes to the reactionaries who were doing mental attacks against them including a high ranking conservative like Deming. This reformist faction will definitely grow in my opinion as Deming explains how the reactionaries attacked him and only the reformists helped save him.

Nobody in the Meng is going to be happy with this phenomenon but the reformists will benefit imo. They weren't the ones to turn against kin first.

 

[The Laurent]

I think it kinda depends with the Reformers. Their ardor could dim, or they could be outraged and frustrated. Up to this point, conflicts with the Reactionaries were political and normal, but now a significant group of them attempted to commit treason and potentially risk the entire Clan while brainwashing and trying to harm their own family on top of it. It's just as easy to imagine that increasing ardor and sharpening political elbows.

 

[Adistridos]

I think with the Meng, it's important to see it from this perspective:

The Reactionaries literally just tried to murder the entire clan at the summit.
And it was the Reformers who prevented that from happening.

After the dust settles, I can only see this resulting in more Meng moving away from more Conservative / Reactionary politics and towards more Reformist stances. No way Reactionaries are ever taken seriously again, if they survive, considering what they just tried to do.

 

[The Laurent]

The fun thing is that while we don't get along with Weilu Conservatives, how they run their domains is closer to what Ling Qi seems to be moving towards than the Weilu Moderates of other Clans, who only do the Cultural stuff and not the Spirit Ecology/Economy stuff.

It's just that they do the Old Ways (TM) unchanged, and don't like people who change it, while the Reformers are seeking to hybridize them in order to strengthen them because they love them and want them to survive, even if changed, because they think such a new-old way would be best.

So I'm not sure what you'd call it if some of those Conservatives dipped their toes, but not fully, into Reformist Spirit Ecology stuff... in terms of, like, what the faction would be. Weilu Moderate is already taken and means something else (primarily cultural elements).

 

[JowKeen]

one of the oldest, unargued moments for the Weilu culturally was immense kinslaying during the Masons' War. If you continue to scrutinize the successors they've all been kinslayers except maybe the isolationist faction that took power in the wake of The Masons' War. You have the Xi (contemporaries to Weilu, active in their courts) committing mass kinslaying (by pretending that various peoples weren't kin). You have the Hui committed to turning kin against kin to benefit themselves creating an environment full of Hui-on-Hui violence. You have Shenhua's Coup, which led to kinslaying in multiple clans.

One of the old scars of the Emerald Seas is massive kinslaying and betrayal of Family/Community for ideology. The Reactionaries are invoking the full extent of the Weilu Heritage, which is a known constant for the Emerald Seas.

So yeah, the progressives catching some blame for provoking the assholes that built their Ways around ideological purity and a skewed understanding of a culture that has consistently descended into kinslaying is probable. It's an open question of whether or not the progressives will embrace the kinslaying part of their heritage, but I suspect some have now due to the event. I'm sure the Emerald Mourner is happy to see more dead dreamers.

I will say though, we got the details though. Many of those in positions of power should be able to get their hands on everything they need to understand what went down and to make decisions accordingly. Will people in general behave with a wide variety of responses? Yes. The assumption, though, is that those that have to rely on reports and delegates for decision making will be fully capable of receiving the information that lays the guilt solely on [the listed names Shu Yue collected].

I think it's more likely that the Weilu Moderates become more opposed to Reactionaries rather than splintering into an "Isolationist" faction. The Reactionaries are already the Isolationist faction, and moderates that wish to be Isolationist will be lumped in with Reactionaries unless they can truly define themselves to others as a different faction. Delun's thesis was that foreign influences ruined the Weilu, and isolationist policies were good and proper countermeasures to those various corrupting influences. He was a major Elder for the Reactionary faction, and expresses a fairly typical Reactionary sentiment. "Things were good, then they weren't. What changed? People thought different, had different ideas, that was a mistake. We should return to the previous ideas, and forget the new ones."

There'll likely be some push against the Progressives from the Moderates as well. They're not wrong in saying that they're the ones that triggered the Reactionaries into Reacting. They could make the argument that CRX and her retainers could have deferred until after Meng Delun had finished passing away. They could make the argument that the summit was rushed, that the heiress and her cohort rushed from the perfectly potent Argent Sect off into adult business. They could say that the whims of starry eyed children acting in haste is what ultimately caused all the deaths, not merely the death throes of an honored Elder.

Of course, we nailed the Summit. Most of these arguments will fall flat to most people. An outcome of that will likely be a tempering of the "Anti-Progressive" knee-jerk reaction from the Moderates especially those in charge. The argument for moderation, for slowing down, and for behaving cautiously isn't even one that we're inherently opposed to. We need to oust Shenhua because she cannot moderate herself indefinitely. We're sympathetic to calls for moderation, but ultimately they cannot be allowed to stop progress. It's more a matter of convincing them of specific changes, rather than converting them to be generally positively-inclined to change.

 

[AbeoLogos]

Speaking of the summit, it's not quite over yet. There's still discussion of the embassy town to be had. On that point, I think there's something that's important to remind/clarify people of.

The embassy town =|= Snowblossom.

Not surprising to a lot of people, but I've seen some sentiments that lead me to believe the distinction isn't understood by everyone. Snowblossom is certainly near the border and by extension where the embassy town will be, but it won't be hosting embassy town infrastructure itself, directly. My understanding is the embassy town will be built at, or near, the site of the current summit, owing to the staffing requirements of judicial and astronomical postings, as well as military detachments, etc.

This isn't really a big deal, as long as we keep it in mind. We should not treat embassy town negotiations like we're getting things for Snowblossom, because we're not. And in some instances, having something setup in the embassy town might not be in our interests. An example might be a Bao proposal to have trade/exchange infrastructure setup in the embassy town directly. Having the frontier of trade good exchange be the summit town means that it's not Snowblossom, which is against our interests.

There could be similar dynamics with other matters, but I can't think of any off the top of my head. We want the summit town to be a place where ideas and culture can be exchanged, but ideally we don't want to hand the keys to the city, so to speak, to the Count clans. We want to retain influence, here. That may, in some circumstances, mean reaching for smaller, less ambitious achievements for this stretch of talks. Just something to keep in mind.

"That is well," bai Meizhen said, pausing for a long moment. "I have been in talks with my teacher and my Aunt over this incident, I believe this matter was handled as well as it could have been."

Xia Anxi grimaced.

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I was gonna to a broader analysis of the Bai talk this update, but I don't really have that much to say. Besides pointing out that Anxi is shook that Ling Qi is perfectly comfortable, calm, and even a bit proudly defiant in the face of an irate White Caste, even while personally totally defenseless. Which is funny.

But this line is worth a bit of analysis in particular. See what Bai Meizhen is saying and isn't saying. She didn't say that her teacher or aunt agree with her assessment. Meizhen has been pushing back against them, at least to some extent, which is impressive. And must be giving Xia Anxi indigestion; he doesn't want to witness White Serpent political sparring, even the friendly kind between allies! Merely knowing that internal divisions might exist makes him uncomfortable, much less knowing the specifics. Poor, adorable, Xia Anxi.

 

[Karnax626]

It wouldn't surprise me if some of the rhetoric to come out of this mess is along the lines of: "She makes peace with barbarians, then turns around and kills our own flesh and blood."

 

[Valmond]

Well we have a pretty good counter argument "Use Hui shit and get burned".

 

[Depio]

if the entirety of Snowblossom is going to be ours eventually, where is Gan Guangli's fief going to be?

 

[adaer]

if the entirety of Snowblossom is going to be ours eventually, where is Gan Guangli's fief going to be?

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Likely nearby; we're going to stay fairly tightly allied, and it's not like there's a shortage of directions to expand out here even if you have someone nearby.

 

[agumentic]

I think with the Meng, it's important to see it from this perspective:

The Reactionaries literally just tried to murder the entire clan at the summit.
And it was the Reformers who prevented that from happening.

After the dust settles, I can only see this resulting in more Meng moving away from more Conservative / Reactionary politics and towards more Reformist stances. No way Reactionaries are ever taken seriously again, if they survive, considering what they just tried to do.

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If politics really were as simple as "my side just did something utterly stupid and suicidal, no one will treat them seriously anymore and I now support the opposite stance", we'd all live in a very different world.

 

[Tobtorp]

If politics really were as simple as "my side just did something utterly stupid and suicidal, no one will treat them seriously anymore and I now support the opposite stance", we'd all live in a very different world.

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Somewhat, but if you really do fuck up colossally then the consequences can be very dire...
And it seems that having one of your elders fight with the top general and attack dog of the province in front of representatives of many major clans and foreign dignitaries (both truly foreign and from other imperial provinces) while trying to sabotage foreign diplomacy under the eyes of the ministry is a truly colossal fuck up.

Politics can be very simple when it comes to saving face and making examples

 

[The Laurent]

The thing is, use real world parallels. In what country has an attempted coup/destroying the entire country by the opposition resulted in people becoming less opposed to them, as compared to dismissing them more or assuming the worst of them? Like, it's a family but that only makes the betrayal sharper, not less significant.

But, like, let's make up Mengistan, a country in IRL. It has three political parties. One of those political parties attempts to brainwash a prominent politician while sabotaging peace talks the country is involved in, with the explicit goal on the part of one of the leading agents, this senile old politician, to either succeed in sabotaging this key peace agreement OR pissing off the United States so much that they invade and salt the very earth, something you've SEEN happen to other countries to the point where they never recovered (Cai Shenhua frankly fits into the "terrifying 'don't make me come over there'" vibes very well for this.) And which does lead to major internecine violence as a direct result of their scheming.

How do you react to and treat this opposition party that went as far as, although some say they didn't mean for it to get that far, attempting to "Witness Me" your entire country on the global stage.

Do you go, "Well, I think they might have some really good points that have just been misunderstood and taken too far?" Or is it the case that said political party is, at best, discredited for a generation?

 

[Valmond]

Even the people who still agree with the isolationist faction are going to be very quiet about it.
Because looking like you support the people who just got purged, can get you join them.
It's going to be years, or more likely decades, before any serious open opposition to us can manifest again.

 

[Pempelune]

Even the people who still agree with the isolationist faction are going to be very quiet about it.
Because looking like you support the people who just got purged, can get you join them.
It's going to be years, or more likely decades, before any serious open opposition to us can manifest again.

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Also the Summit being successful in itself is a big shot in the arm of the Reformists, Meng Dan told us so:

"Uncle Deming is a principled man. In many ways, he was the compromise candidate."
Ling Qi crossed her arms, considering this. "And what are his principles?"
"That there is more power in words than blades. That we, the Meng should be teachers and keepers of history. He is a deeply melancholy man, stemming from his belief that our ways can only fade, or at best, hold in the heartlands," Meng Dan said. "It is my Grandmother's belief that he might be swayed to our views. If it can be shown that the spirit speaking methods and principles of the Dreaming Way can find purchase still."

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Meng Deming is a Conservative, and the Summit can turn him because it would be proof that Tsu's way of peace through dialogue can still be successful outside Meng lands, unlike what the conservatives believe.

 

[The Laurent]

Another thing to understand is that the percentages of each group, and not just in the Meng, are an abstraction of overall political power. Not even the Meng hold some sort of popular vote with those exact percentages being how many Meng support each. It might have some parallels, but it can also definitely depend.

Thus it's entirely possible for a group's support to decrease or hit 0% not because they've all died or converted to another side, but because plenty of them have lost key positions and gone back to their manors to sulk for a few decades and/or cultivate or whatever else.

 

[The Laurent]

Also the Summit being successful in itself is a big shot in the arm of the Reformists, Meng Dan told us so:

Meng Deming is a Conservative, and the Summit can turn him because it would be proof that Tsu's way of peace through dialogue can still be successful outside Meng lands, unlike what the conservatives believe.

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Yeah, that is one thing that's not really captured by the "Weilu Conservative" label, or rather something where I think it's easy for people to make assumptions based on a lot of the modern/early modern ways that conservative is used politically. This combines with the fact that they like us less than Weilu Moderates do.

But within the context of the Meng, Weilu Conservatives are those who seek to Conserve an actual minority position (the spirit ecology/economy of the Weilu, as well as their rites and rituals) as opposed to say, trying to preserve an advantageous status quo for a privileged elite or so on. (Or at least, it's not entirely that, obviously on Meng lands some form of Weilu position is dominant.)

As noted in that quote, a lot of such Conservatives see it as all that they can accomplish, to fight a rearguard action to slow or maintain the Weilu cultural-and-economic ways as long as they can, and suspect anything else (such as claims of a new, hybrid way) of being Imperial Ways in disguise.

Suspect, as opposed to the Reactionaries, who KNOW it's all Imperial Ways in disguise and think even the Weilu Conservatives have been infected with Imperial Ways and that only they know how to RTRVN.


E: It's interesting stuff to think about, really.

 

[Karthak Urzak]

A refresher: This is how Yrs defines the Conservatives:

Weilu conservatives are the ones who actually stick to the old ways of building practice and economy and spirit pacts to the letter. They have not adjusted or accepted the intrusion of imperial practices at all and get extremely huffy with anyone who tries to make them

In other words they are hardcore "treat spirits like people and don't bulldoze the spiritual ecosystem like the Imperials" folks, and they are the majority of the Meng. They hold to the way of Tsu. In a way SWD was right to call them the last of the Forest People.
It's a shame they have a -1 rep opinion about Ling Qi, since I think they'd approve of the way she treats her spirits.
Edit: I think the narrator here was one of the Conservatives:

Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny) Original - Users' Choice!

First Quest, Forge of Destiny, here Ling Qi stood at the edge of the grass grown cliff and...

forums.sufficientvelocity.com

Then there are our beasts, and O does the hypocrisy burn. The great clans are exempt from your distaste naturally, as you dare not face their strength. But for consorting with our kin, whose chains Tsu himself shattered the skulls of their gods, we are savage. You tell us it is a foul thing for children to see our companions as kin, that it degrades their humanity, degrades their loyalty to their own kind. In this the extent of your ignorance is revealed. The beasts which live beside us, which have helped us build,which have defended our homes against nomad, enraged spirit and conqueror alike, and have died beside us when we failed are far more our kin than men such as you in your far away mountains and keeps, ever and always taking from us.

But that is the trouble with imperials. You covet the aesthetic, the appearance of order and unity. Our ways offend for the simple fact that they are not your ways, not due to any true objection. You look upon us and are offended to not see a mirror. You will take the world and erase everything which does not match your soulless peaks if you could.

But yes, come tell me more how you are improving our lands, bringing your roads and buildings which clash with the spirits and crush agreements older than the sage. Tell us how we are better packed into hovels where disease spirits and misery breed, in buildings which have no spirits, no bond to kith and kin who live within their walls. Tell us more about how barbarous our ways are in letting our children grow with companions four legged as well as two. Tell us that we are savages, little better than the wretched tribes of the Wall. How we will be much improved by answering to your lords and ministers rather than our councils and elders.