Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
I can see the merits to going all in with Cai authority, where the line in the sand is drawn with the stick readily visible... but Gunboat Diplomacy doesn't really seem to fit Ling Qi.

Seems more the type of thing Xia Lin would have done if she was in charge, and not the type of action a budding spymaster to be would go with.
We're not really going to be the typical idea of a spymaster though. We're not the schemer who has a thousand agents ready to spy and manipulate to our advantage. We'll be Cai Renxiang's investigator, her discrete diplomat, and that comes with the job to intimidate people. We could find the guilty and tell them that they can either answer to the Cai or betray the corrupt our liege seeks to purge. Our whole theme is the fear of isolation, we're uniquely suitable to enter peoples' homes and without anyone noticing and tell them that the only way they can save themselves from the cold and the dark is to do what our liege asks.
 
I don't get how some people are arguing that option 3 doesn't lead to inevitable violence. Its been established in text that they're planning to spring the trap on us. They gave no thought to diplomacy or cooperation. Their minds immediately went to attacking us. This is what their planning to do right now and while option 3 does have benefits, its still leading to an inevitable fight. Thats because its not addressing their true intentions. People keep saying otherwise but I really don't see it that way at all.
 
I don't get how some people are arguing that option 3 doesn't lead to inevitable violence. Its been established in text that they're planning to spring the trap on us. They gave no thought to diplomacy or cooperation. Their minds immediately went to attacking us. This is what their planning to do right now and while option 3 does have benefits, its still leading to an inevitable fight. Thats because its not addressing their true intentions. People keep saying otherwise but I really don't see it that way at all.

The point in my case is "I don't want them to feel like they're not in control until the last minute, because a spiteful bunch of spiders can do a lot to make the job pointless if you come at them head on"

If we put Xia Lin in charge, I'd be all for this. We didn't, we decided to be Ling Qi.

So why aren't we playing to her strengths?, instead just seizing on this crazy idea that "The only option that doesn't provoke a fight is the one where we go full gunboat diplomacy and leverage our power!"

Why are we suddenly pivoting from Ling Qi's strengths into areas where she is--at best--ordinary because of imagined ideas of 'THIS IS THE MOST PEACEFUL OUTCOME!'

Are we claiming all of a sudden that only direct, naked force can avoid a battle?

Even if we do avoid the battle, does that make this trip profitable for us? Do we or our company gain from scaring them into submission? What happens when the spiders lose control of the situation, and what can that cost us?"

Because the thing about being trappers is that you need bait, and that bait needs to be something valuable or your prey won't come close.

Straight up going "I am strong and I'll take what I want" means that you've put them in a position of weakness, which means they are now trying to trick you into going away without taking anything they actually care about. Which means this entire trip was a waste of time unless we pivot to violence.

In which case, what makes option two that much better than three?

The key rule to running a heist is to ensure that your foe feels in control of the situation until you're ready to make your move. Because once they feel like they are not in control, they start moving to secure valuables and divert you away from things they care about. "I can't beat you, but I can secure my treasures" and all that.

So yeah, that's why I want number three. Because it doesn't telegraph our intentions to come in and take things from them before we're actually in a position to secure anything. Option three? If it doesn't come to violence everything still goes perfectly well, it doesn't commit to attacking preemptively at all. Option two begins with a threat display to 'Scare' them into behaving. But unless we plan to sit on them, that fear only lasts until we leave, so we can't secure any long term arrangements, because fear requires constant reinforcement to remain effective.

Or unless we plan to kill them, in which case why is this better than option three, which seeks to turnaround an ambush?
 
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[X] Pretend that you have not noticed their duplicity and play polite for as long as possible to draw out information. Subtly set yourself up to counterattack their ambush.
 
[X] Pretend that you have not noticed their duplicity and play polite for as long as possible to draw out information. Subtly set yourself up to counterattack their ambush.
 
I can see the merits to going all in with Cai authority, where the line in the sand is drawn with the stick readily visible... but Gunboat Diplomacy doesn't really seem to fit Ling Qi.

Seems more the type of thing Xia Lin would have done if she was in charge, and not the type of action a budding spymaster to be would go with.

Gunboat diplomacy beats getting in an unnecessary fight, though. Option 3 isn't a more subtle option, its just letting ourselves be attacked.
 
The point in my case is "I don't want them to feel like they're not in control until the last minute, because a spiteful bunch of spiders can do a lot to make the job pointless if you come at them head on"

If we put Xia Lin in charge, I'd be all for this. We didn't, we decided to be Ling Qi.

So why aren't we playing to her strengths?, instead just seizing on this crazy idea that "The only option that doesn't provoke a fight is the one where we go full gunboat diplomacy and leverage our power!"

Why are we suddenly pivoting from Ling Qi's strengths into areas where she is--at best--ordinary because of imagined ideas of 'THIS IS THE MOST PEACEFUL OUTCOME!'

Are we claiming all of a sudden that only direct, naked force can avoid a battle?

Because that is the choice Yrsillar gave us: 1.) Retreat 2.) Call their bluff and go in assertively and try to get them to back down or, 3.) Prepare to receive their attacks. 1 doesn't accomplish our goals so it is out. 3 plays dumb and lets the spiders continue with and eventually execute their plan to attack us. 3 simply doesn't include the outcome you want. If Yrsillar gave us an option to avoid battle with something other than assertiveness here, I might be for it too.

Conversely, 3 is the one that doesn't play to Xia Lin's strengths. We have no idea if Xia Lin can pull off what 3 demands of her. It's entirely possible the spiders will immediately figure out what's up with one glance at her and attack.

Even if we do avoid the battle, does that make this trip profitable for us? Do we or our company gain from scaring them into submission? What happens when the spiders lose control of the situation, and what can that cost us?"

We stand to gain the deactivation of the maze formation, and forces at least amiable to contact with the Cai in this region. If we fight with them, per 3, we lose those, as well as being potentially injured or killed and fail to deativate the maze formation if the spiders are the only ones who know how it works and we've killed them. 3 is high risk for far less reward than 2.

Because the thing about being trappers is that you need bait, and that bait needs to be something valuable or your prey won't come close.

Straight up going "I am strong and I'll take what I want" means that you've put them in a position of weakness, which means they are now trying to trick you into going away without taking anything they actually care about. Which means this entire trip was a waste of time unless we pivot to violence.

In which case, what makes option two that much better than three?

The key rule to running a heist is to ensure that your foe feels in control of the situation until you're ready to make your move. Because once they feel like they are not in control, they start moving to secure valuables and divert you away from things they care about. "I can't beat you, but I can secure my treasures" and all that.

We don't need to heist them. It would be far nicer to just tell them who we are, explain that attacking us would be a very terrible idea, and possibly gain their submission to the Duchess. This is an opportunity to turn weapons of war into gifts of silk and jade.

So yeah, that's why I want number three. Because it doesn't telegraph our intentions to come in and take things from them before we're actually in a position to secure anything. Option three? If it doesn't come to violence everything still goes perfectly well, it doesn't commit to attacking preemptively at all. Option two begins with a threat display to 'Scare' them into behaving. But unless we plan to sit on them, that fear only lasts until we leave, so we can't secure any long term arrangements, because fear requires constant reinforcement to remain effective.

Or unless we plan to kill them, in which case why is this better than option three, which seeks to turnaround an ambush?

Two is better than three because in both cases we will be alert to and prepared for an ambush regardless, it doesn't rely on Xia Lin's acting skills, and it gives Ling Qi the ability to potentially preempt their attack by bluntly laying out why it would be a bad idea.
 
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I'm not sure why people seem to view getting into a fight as a bad thing especially if we're not the one starting it. Like if they decided to attack us that's on them and their bad decisions. It's no sin of ours if they try and abuse our good faith to trap and kill us. I just don't see why we should care about whether this spiders especially since they're aiming to ambush us.
 
I'm not sure why people seem to view getting into a fight as a bad thing especially if we're not the one starting it. Like if they decided to attack us that's on them and their bad decisions. It's no sin of ours if they try and abuse our good faith to trap and kill us. I just don't see why we should care about whether this spiders especially since they're aiming to ambush us.
Oh I agree that they deserve it. However, if we can keep them even as tentative contacts, there are long term opportunities that we may be able to take advantage of. That's for option 2, which may result in no violence. Some people point out that it could turn violent anyways but its the only option where either one is possible. Option 3 is just waiting for them to attack and taking them down. Elimination and no long term gain. I get that some people want to loot the place because they want the shinies and what not but I personally don't think its a priority.
 
I'm not sure why people seem to view getting into a fight as a bad thing especially if we're not the one starting it. Like if they decided to attack us that's on them and their bad decisions. It's no sin of ours if they try and abuse our good faith to trap and kill us. I just don't see why we should care about whether this spiders especially since they're aiming to ambush us.

Because there's literally no upside for us. We'll just be wasting time and energy and potentially being injured, and if we kill the spiders and it turns out we can't figure out how to deactivate the maze formation without their help we will have failed our task for Cai Renxiang.
 
[X] Pretend that you have not noticed their duplicity and play polite for as long as possible to draw out information. Subtly set yourself up to counterattack their ambush.

I was mostly torn between the two leading options so far, but the heist arguments convinced me to actually pick one.
 
[X] Pretend that you have not noticed their duplicity and play polite for as long as possible to draw out information. Subtly set yourself up to counterattack their ambush.

The wording does have us fishing for info, and I'd wager our most important info gathering would be the illusion topside. Most likely they'd allude to it's description bond style before the trap spring's and we find it in one of the tunnels in the spider den. The observatory doesn't look to be part of the maintained illusion I'd imagine.
 
I'm confuzzled why people keep ignoring the point about "if the Spiders are prepping an ambush because that's what nervous people who want insurance do Option 3 doesn't actually trigger a fight, but Option 2 very well might" Instead insisting that Ling Qi has total and complete information, and the spiders will definitely aggressively ambush us for certain sure. All we know is that they are planning an ambush. We don't know WHY. And worth pointing out, Ling Qi effectively planned an "Ambush in case of hostilities occuring" with Zhen Qui IMMEDIATELY prior.

The assumption here is that the spiders MUST be acting in bad faith, should the spiders be assuming Ling Qi is acting in bad faith since she immediately "planned an ambush" with her Zhen Qui?
 
I'm confuzzled why people keep ignoring the point about "if the Spiders are prepping an ambush because that's what nervous people who want insurance do Option 3 doesn't actually trigger a fight, but Option 2 very well might" Instead insisting that Ling Qi has total and complete information, and the spiders will definitely aggressively ambush us for certain sure. All we know is that they are planning an ambush. We don't know WHY. And worth pointing out, Ling Qi effectively planned an "Ambush in case of hostilities occuring" with Zhen Qui IMMEDIATELY prior.

The assumption here is that the spiders MUST be acting in bad faith, should the spiders be assuming Ling Qi is acting in bad faith since she immediately "planned an ambush" with her Zhen Qui?

You're right that it's theoretically possible that they aren't planning an ambush against us aggressively, but Yrsillar phrased the options and post that way, and Yrsillar is reliable with that and isn't out to deliberately trick us with those kind of cheap reversals.

If Yrsillar wanted to say they were planning a fighting retreat or a contingency, the post would have said so.
 
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You're right that it's theoretically possible that they aren't planning an ambush against us aggressively, but Yrsillar phrased the options and post that way, and Yrsillar is reliable with that and isn't out to deliberately trick us with those kind of cheap reversals.

If Yrsillar wanted to say they were planning a fighting retreat or a contingency, the post would have said so.

He wouldn't deliberately trick us, but Ling Qi is not a reliable narrator, and the action itself only states that option three is watchful for ambush and looking for a chance to pull the Uno Reverse card if needed, but is otherwise going fishing with her tricksy fey nature.

I mean, fuck, he literally hid the "Ling Qi is too damaged to make strong emotional bonds because she can't grasp truly unconditional love and friendship" thing in the front page since day one of Threads.

Yrsillar won't outright lie to us, but he also won't give us information Ling Qi doesn't have outside of narrative beats (And he telegraphs those with parenthesis). And the narrative itself is full stop unreliable narrator.
 
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He wouldn't deliberately trick us, but Ling Qi is not a reliable narrator, and the action itself only states that option three is watchful for ambush and looking for a chance to pull the Uno Reverse card if needed, but is otherwise going fishing with her tricksy fey nature.

I mean, fuck, he literally hid the "Ling Qi is too damaged to make strong emotional bonds because she can't grasp truly unconditional love and friendship" thing in the front page since day one of Threads.

Yrsillar won't outright lie to us, but he also won't give us information Ling Qi doesn't have outside of narrative beats (And he telegraphs those with parenthesis). And the narrative itself is full stop unreliable narrator.

I see no particular reason to invite a fight by taking a course of action based on speculation not backed by even the unreliable narrator. Nothing Ling Qi or Yrsillar have said indicated that Ling Qi is wrong in concluding that the spiders are planning an attack. If the evidence was conflicting that would be one thing, but that's not the case here.

For all we know, one of the spiders could be the Empresse's spy, but we shouldn't plan on something like that.

How would Ling Qi even explain that leap of logic? "Yes, I detected that the spiders were going to ambush us but I walked into it anyways because I thought I was unreliable."?
 
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I see no particular reason to invite a fight by taking a course of action based on speculation not backed by even the unreliable narrator. Nothing Ling Qi or Yrsillar have said indicated that Ling Qi is wrong in concluding that the spiders are planning an attack. If the evidence was conflicting that would be one thing, but that's not the case here.

For all we know, one of the spiders could be the Empresse's spy, but we shouldn't plan on something like that.

... Again, option three does not invite a fight, it feigns unawareness to fish for information and resources, while keeping them off their guard, while looking for a chance to reverse the ambush.

And given our build, I sincerely doubt that they have some magic that hard counters us and turns it into a difficult fight that they couldn't just pull on us if we go full gunboat diplomacy.

Gunboat Diplomacy requires keen understanding of your target and enough force to absolutely guarantee that they can't balk you. Because if they feel they've got a shot, it guarantees a fight, because nobody likes someone invading their territory and making demands, and we're not powerful enough that they would be cowed by our presence alone. It gambles that they're smart enough to recognize that we're backed by a White power, and cautious enough that they decide to pay tribute instead of risk escalation over a couple kids.

It's treating them as humans instead of spirits, when it's been hammered down repeatedly that "Spirits do not think like people!". And these have been isolated long enough that any socialization that would let them ape it might have started to fade by now.

...

And if they have had contact with Hui splinters. The last thing we want to do is announce that we're agents of their usurpers!
 
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The option is to literally stand there and fish for information while both sides set up for a fight. There is an option to retreat, and an option to head off the violence, and neither of them are option 3.

Option two only heads off the violence if they are actually intimidated.

If they aren't for whatever reason. You've just offended them, and now you get nothing but bloodshed out of them.

Option three gambles to get something out of them in exchange for having a marginally worse position if it comes to a fight, and has a slight but measurable chance of avoiding it as well.

Because again. It does not say 'Pretend to move in and then attack them'. it says 'pretend you didn't see their setup while distracting them and poking them for chatter, and seeking the proverbial high ground if they decide to start a throwdown.

No matter how hard you guys wish it to be "It's the attack first option! It guarantees a fight!" This has zero backing. The only thing that justifies it is that it doesn't outright say "Tries to intimidate them into backing down" in it.

It only guarantees a fight if a fight is unavoidable in the first place and they'll attack the moment they feel like it. In which case option two isn't really any different except that it implies we buff up first and assumes they'll sit tight and do nothing while we wind up, instead of treating our attempt to throw our weight around as hostility and decide to attack immediately. We're well out of the Empire's borders here, and I don't think these spiders make regular expeditions north to keep up to date with human politics.

Two Green 3/4s isn't enough to make a pack of third realm spider beasts back down, not when they don't know our reputation. And assuming they know about the Cai enough to be intimidated by them seems incredibly optimistic.
 
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Insert Tally
Adhoc vote count started by EternalObserver on Nov 19, 2020 at 8:49 PM, finished with 285 posts and 140 votes.
 
As others have said, 2 and 3 both have the possibility of not having a fight happen. If we assume the spiders are evil and duplicitous, then 2 has the best chance to avoid a fight. If we assume the spiders are scared and setting up contingencies, then 3 has the best chance to avoid a fight.

On the basis of reciprocity, we should extend trust first. That means 3, since it assumes the best of them to start.
 
[X] Enter and engage, but be prepared. Use the trappings of Cai authority and your own power to intimidate them into backing down. If they attack anyway, this is a grouping you can handle.
 
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