- Location
- Illinois
Going against the Black Sheep Emperor is like marching into a jungle... because, you know, it is.
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Paths of Civilization II: Paths of Industrialization
FriedIce
The Authentic Fake
- Location
- Hyperreality
That's a nice opinion. Do you have an argument to back it up with?
ExNihilo
SPACE!
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
It's what loserthree does. People have been trying to get him to cut back on it for months at least.
But... Supporting the Emperor, per word of QM is most likely to result in an unstable state that will have stalled in its industrial and military reforms. i.e., it leaves Kus more vulnerable to the Sketch. Supporting the West is the most likely (apparently) to result in a strong Kus regime, since either the Western rebels will conquer Kus or the Black Sheep or a local Kus dynasty will become a new east focused polity that is at least not distracted trying to hold down a restive west.
fasquardon
Aabcehmu
Confusion as a Natural State of Being
- Location
- Aurora, CO
- Pronouns
- Any/All
That's fair, maybe supporting the emperor isn't a good way to secure that breadbasket. We need to secure it, though, and letting a local Kus regime who are on bad terms with us is the opposite of that. If we are not supporting the Emperor, we have to make sure that the rebels push east, and push east quickly, before the HEKC can swoop in and take the land for themselves.
FriedIce
The Authentic Fake
- Location
- Hyperreality
Actually, @Academia Nut, have either the Black Sheep or the rebels asked us for aid?
Because if they haven't, why are we forcing ourselves into a war where neither of the participants want us?
Because if they haven't, why are we forcing ourselves into a war where neither of the participants want us?
keenscythe
No longer NEET
- Location
- WA, USA
While supporting the rebels is going to be jungle warfare. Like Vietnam. Remember how that turned out for the USA?
Also unlike America we would have to physically March our soldiers there instead of having them ride in Navy Ships.
FriedIce
The Authentic Fake
- Location
- Hyperreality
[X] Support the Emperor in the East (Black Sheep investments wiped out, moderate threat to lowlands territories, People moderately supportive)
Right, now that's done lets talk about where this is going to go long term - notably I think the long term picture here is broadly the same for both options. The choice is a question of which flavour of Ice Cream we'd like, not whether we'd like steak. For those of you arguing for supporting the West, please substitute 'Western Black Sheep' for 'Eastern Black Sheep' below as required.
We are, I think, looking at a long term Western Black Sheep (WBS) insurgency. I would broadly expect this to resemble the Iraqi insurgency. We can expect (depending on the level of control and our level of involvement) for most of the major population centres to remain pacified most of the time, but control over the countryside will be patchy at best (especially given the geography of the region).
A long term WBS insurgency can lead to four places long term:
Reconciliation and Healing
The Black Sheep manage to thread the needle and build a cohesive state that isn't in constant rebellion against them. This can charitably be described as unlikely, but is probably the best long term solution. It will require tremendous effort though, which I'm not sure the Black Sheep are able to - remember, this is a huge portion of their country.
Genocide
Largely self explanatory, the Black Sheep in a desperation move decide that they'll make a desert and call it peace. I would personally, consider this a red line (as I think would most of the thread) and would push hard for sending in troops to stop this - likely resulting in one of the next two scenarios.
Independence
Because we force it, the Black Sheep get tired of trying to occupy OTL Iran, or armed rebellion forces them out at a later date the WBS form an independent nation. This is a meh option, simply because the action system discourages engagement with multiple small people in favour of going for the big ones. It's also, frankly, the most likely long term option.
Someone Else's Problem
Someone else occupies the WBS. This is a lose option, unless it's us doing the occupying in which case it will just be an enormous pain. The land WBS occupies is strategically very important, containing a chunk of the breadbasket lowlands, a lot of oil and allowing whoever holds it to threaten the lowlands and our Indian Ocean port. As well as their salt sea ports.
A combination between Independence and Someone Else's Problem is also very possible. Perhaps even preferred. I'd rather like to get the remainder of the lowlands and a couple of Salt Sea ports long term - though I've no interest in trying to occupy not!Iran - even the Iranians find occupying Iran to be hard.
Right, now that's done lets talk about where this is going to go long term - notably I think the long term picture here is broadly the same for both options. The choice is a question of which flavour of Ice Cream we'd like, not whether we'd like steak. For those of you arguing for supporting the West, please substitute 'Western Black Sheep' for 'Eastern Black Sheep' below as required.
We are, I think, looking at a long term Western Black Sheep (WBS) insurgency. I would broadly expect this to resemble the Iraqi insurgency. We can expect (depending on the level of control and our level of involvement) for most of the major population centres to remain pacified most of the time, but control over the countryside will be patchy at best (especially given the geography of the region).
A long term WBS insurgency can lead to four places long term:
Reconciliation and Healing
The Black Sheep manage to thread the needle and build a cohesive state that isn't in constant rebellion against them. This can charitably be described as unlikely, but is probably the best long term solution. It will require tremendous effort though, which I'm not sure the Black Sheep are able to - remember, this is a huge portion of their country.
Genocide
Largely self explanatory, the Black Sheep in a desperation move decide that they'll make a desert and call it peace. I would personally, consider this a red line (as I think would most of the thread) and would push hard for sending in troops to stop this - likely resulting in one of the next two scenarios.
Independence
Because we force it, the Black Sheep get tired of trying to occupy OTL Iran, or armed rebellion forces them out at a later date the WBS form an independent nation. This is a meh option, simply because the action system discourages engagement with multiple small people in favour of going for the big ones. It's also, frankly, the most likely long term option.
Someone Else's Problem
Someone else occupies the WBS. This is a lose option, unless it's us doing the occupying in which case it will just be an enormous pain. The land WBS occupies is strategically very important, containing a chunk of the breadbasket lowlands, a lot of oil and allowing whoever holds it to threaten the lowlands and our Indian Ocean port. As well as their salt sea ports.
A combination between Independence and Someone Else's Problem is also very possible. Perhaps even preferred. I'd rather like to get the remainder of the lowlands and a couple of Salt Sea ports long term - though I've no interest in trying to occupy not!Iran - even the Iranians find occupying Iran to be hard.
Sheesh. First we have inappropriate Afghanistan references, now we have inappropriate Vietnam references...
The US did not lose in Vietnam because of the jungle. They lost because they were trying to not piss off the Soviets and because they had a weak allied regime in South Vietnam that they they proceeded to undermine even further.
And the US had an advantage the DC don't: modern tropical medicine.
Whatever happens, it will look nothing like any recent wars in Afghanistan or Vietnam, so can we stop with the histrionic comparisons already?
fasquardon
- Location
- Hell
Back to the situation with Sketch, is there a way to get others just as tired of their shenanigans as we are?
Because if they are allowed to talk s*** behind our back, we should be able to do the same.
@Academia Nut is there like a propaganda project or can that be covered in Outreach?
Because if they are allowed to talk s*** behind our back, we should be able to do the same.
@Academia Nut is there like a propaganda project or can that be covered in Outreach?
10ebbor10
DON'T PANIC
- Location
- Present
We've had plenty of opportunity to mess with the Sketch, we just never did.
Edit : Anyway, here's an idea for an intel operation.
We secretely spread the idea that grain prices will soon rise due to the war in BS.
We thus secretely encourage a grain price bubble amonh the Sketch
We short grain
And then we crash the grain price.
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- Location
- Hell
?
When?
Not specifically, as far as I recall.
It has only been through catpaws so far.
- Location
- Canada
[X] Support the rebelling West (-1 Trust, SoL benefit from Technical Advisors lost, Maharathan ports endangered, almost no threat to lowlands territories, People extremely supportive)
These are our historical allies, so we may as well side with them. The Emperor is becoming more Kus (not that that's a bad thing, but they are not our old friends)
These are our historical allies, so we may as well side with them. The Emperor is becoming more Kus (not that that's a bad thing, but they are not our old friends)
10ebbor10
DON'T PANIC
- Location
- Present
They had a massive financial crisis during which we were intact. Did we bother to do anything involving them? Not at all.
keenscythe
No longer NEET
- Location
- WA, USA
Im baffled are you saying desert warfare or jungle warfare would be easier for the Dual Crown to fight in?
Since you are agreeing with me that the USA had advantages we don't for jungle warfare and yet you call me a histrionic fool.
Which is it?
10ebbor10
DON'T PANIC
- Location
- Present
He's saying that the situations are so differentbas to be incompareable.
[X] Support the rebelling West (-1 Trust, SoL benefit from Technical Advisors lost, Maharathan ports endangered, almost no threat to lowlands territories, People extremely supportive)
- Location
- Australia
There's alot we could do if we are willing to risk war.
- Location
- nz
[X] Support the rebelling West (-1 Trust, SoL benefit from Technical Advisors lost, Maharathan ports endangered, almost no threat to lowlands territories, People extremely supportive)
- Location
- Hell
Again, catpaws.
Doing something would have screwed everyone over. Including some of our allies.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
It would be a question for the future.
Yes, although they already did a lot of their investing in their colonial possessions before the game.
While they seem strong and unaffected, intelligence reports suggest that the Sketch have cut themselves to the bone preventing revolution. They are running lean and desperate for wealth and luxuries that their workers and middle class can keep occupied with. Right now their biggest fault line is their economy. Another major shock is something they can't "shrug off like last time, although given their exploitative practices economic disruptions have to hit them early in the process lest they seize upon another's weakness to turn enough of a profit to come out ahead in the crash. Also, while you scare them the recent thawing of relations with the Hes doesn't sit well with many.
Both are really good at putting down local rebellions. They are untested against peers but should put up at least a decent fight with significant numbers. You need massive naval investments to fight them.
You getting involved in the fighting is unlikely to start right away, but both groups expect you to pick a side for diplomatic purposes if nothing else.
Espionage actions.