Please consider the conference. If we do not win there, Syrakousai can gain massively at the expense of the Sikeliote League. Gaining hoplites from Krotone on the one hand while also losing some from Thurii becoming more disgruntled than otherwise cannot account for that imbalance; particularly as Krotone is far from Sicily, increasing the expense of foreign campaigning even as the season for it is shortened by hard travel. They must also spare some of their warriors to defend from the depradations of the Brutii, while the only hostile force Rhegion borders is Lokri, an ally of Syrakousai, so they may fully commit what men they have.
Edit: I wish terribly that I didn't have work tomorrow, this vote is extremely important and I hope I may sway the result.
My greatest concern would be that Syrakousai is not idle over the next three years. According to Obander, he only plans to directly deal with with Sicily and the Congress there in year three of his term.
Finally, in my third year I will go myself, and dispatch emissaries to, the cities of Sicily, while working with the Sikeliote League. Our aim is to blunt the aims of Syrakousai's ambitions at the Congress of Gela and prevent the intervention of powers from the east who might seek to take advantage of the situation to support Syrakousai's intentions, such as Korinthos.
Obander's first year is going to be a ground tour of the various Italian/Sicilian city-states. His second year is going to focus on forging a lasting peace with Taras. It's only in the 3rd year that we'll begin working on the Congress directly.
What I'm most worried about is the opportunity cost of not securing Krotone. If they are left nominally unaligned, I'm deeply worried that Syrakousai will reach out to them and offer an alliance with the promise of them expanding against Thurii should war come. If they do this, then Krotone and Lokri can support each other on the Italian mainland and check both Rhegion and Thurii. Krotone and Lokri don't even have to
do anything and they will tie down Thurii's hoplites as well as Rhegion's. The threat that Krotone or Lokri have something to throw against Thurii and Rhegion's homes will have to be taken seriously.
Syrakousai is able to keep Lokri nominally on their side as is. Whatever strategic calculus they're promising to Lokri goes similarly to Krotone. Better, in fact. Lokri might choose to take land from Rhegion and threaten the Straits of Messina, something Syrakousai desperately wants for themselves. Krotone doesn't have anything that conflicts with Syrakousai.
With a Krotone alliance, Lokri will have their northern flank secured and thus be able to focus exclusively on Rhegion while Krotone does the exact same to Thurii. Since both Rhegion and Thurii will now be fighting on the 'home front' in Italy, they can't offer support to Sicily. Rhegion still has their navy, but that doesn't do the Sikeliote Greeks any good since Syrakousai and their allies can simply march over them. Syrakousai has something like 20,000 hoplites directly loyal to them in Sicily while the Sikeliote Greeks only have 8,000. Being able to distract Rhegion and Thurii, even if only temporarily, will mean that Syrakousai can acquire a commanding numerical advantage against the other Sicilian Greeks.
The Congress is ultimately a substitute for war. Depending on how it's resolved, it's a proxy for an actual violent conflict that
could occur if the participants don't get what they want. If Syrakousai can arrange for our allies to be implicitly surrounded or distracted, then that means there is no longer a united front to oppose them. They're large enough that with just their allies it takes
basically everyone to oppose them. All it would take is one distraction or a single new friend to completely change the calculus into their favour.
We've seen in the Sallantine War the advantages enjoyed by a power with greater force concentration. Taras smashed the Messapii and basically sidelined them for the entire war before we could even get involved. By the time we can get to Sicily, and Thurii/Rhegion fight free from Lokri/Krotone, the campaign season is going to be severely shortened. Plus, during that time, the Sikeliote League will be utterly ravaged by the Syrakousai League who out number them 2.5 times over. If they can ensure we're disunified in any way, they can repeatedly try to pick us apart piecemeal.
Rhegion as an ally is definitely a 'safe' choice. It doesn't bring anything new to the table, but it's also unlikely to meaningfully alienate someone. Their navy would also be sufficient alongside ours to firmly dissuade Korinth from sticking their nose into Sicily. But they don't really take any weaknesses away, either. If Korinth decides to stick their nose in, then it's either going to be against Syrakousai (which we want) or in their favour (which Rhegion
must oppose). If we want to bring the fight to Korinth in the Adriatic Sea, then Rhegion is definitely our best bet, since they would normally not fight Korinth there.
Rhegion would help us greatly against Korinth, but I don't see Korinth ever turning their eyes west (they never did IRL and that's for good reason). Korinth is likely to be wrapped up in affairs in Hellas for decades. Once the current war is over, the Medes will interfere again and support someone else to keep Hellas weak and divided. They remember that when the Greeks united, they were able to oppose and throw back the Persians. Even without their interference, Sparta is
not going to be magnanimous in victory; look at their Hellots and tell me there is kindness in any Spartan heart. They slaughtered the surrendered defenders of Palatia last year. Sparta will drive their former allies to rivalry and rebellion through heavy-handedness quite quickly.
What Rhegion doesn't do, unfortunately, is contribute to entrapping Syrakousai. They're already fully invested there so allying them gains nothing in that theater. Krotone, on the other hand, gets us 3,500 more hoplites who can be immediately thrown into battle against Lokri; without an alliance, does Krotone have any reason to get involved with a Syrakousai war?
With Thurii possibly getting that city they wanted from Taras, now is the time to try and sell them on this; we give them something and ask for something in return. Obander is the best diplomat we're likely to get for working with other Greeks, so his chances of success are best. Krotone and Thurii are more likely to stay our allies because we can offer them opportunities long-term to expand and are likely to actually call them into war; the chance to expand and loot are what builds alliances in this day and age. Does anyone else remember when Egnatia almost broke their alliance with us when we asked them
not to go to war with us?
Sure, in the short-term, Thurri has nowhere to expand beyond that city that Taras might cede to them, but the Sallantine Peace will end eventually. Metapontion may find itself isolated over time or Taras might nurture thoughts of revenge against us and require a violent reminder of their place. Thurii will still be able to expand against them at that point. Given how Thurii will need some time to digest their current acquisition, some time for enforced peace might be ideal.
With Krotone backing up Thurii and that subsidiary city of Taras out of the way, Krotone/Thurii may be able to jam war down Metapontion's throat regardless of what they want. They will out number them that much.
Krotone is always going to be able to expand against Lokri until they bump up against Rhegion's sphere of influence. By that point, they're going to be directly under Syrakousai's baleful eye. They're going to be forcibly welded tighter to the Sikeliote Coalition because if they fall, Syrakousai is going to be taking bites out of their territory just as much as Rhegion.
Past that point, I'm not sure Thurii or Krotone could expand. They're still city-states and democracies at that. There's a sharp limit to how large they can grow due to the needs necessary in maintaining civic debates, tradition, and rule of law.
Over all, I just don't see the risk of allowing Syrakousai the chance to ally Krotone to be worth it. Getting them on-board would utterly devastate coordination among the non-Syrakousai powers. Krotone and Thurii are actually likely to be more useful in war in the longer term due to us being able to call them in against Taras, Metapontion, or the
barbaroi of Magna Gracia.
