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Changing Destiny (Kancolle)

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Guardian54 said:
And wasn't that the whole point of OTL Doolittle, to spit in Japan's eye (and force them to pull forces back to guard the Home Islands)?
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You're completely ignoring the point, which is that the political pressures that led to Doolittle's raid being authorized OTL are notably weaker and/or absent here. Could it happen? Sure. But it's much less likely than OTL, because we're about to have one of those Rocket Tag matches that characterized early carrier combat, and if it goes modestly well for the US or very well, we're going to have a win (or something that can be spun as such) that will negate the political pressure for something that could be spun as a victory over Japan/the IJN that ultimately led to the authorization of the Doolittle Raid. Any effects on Japan's strategic calculus were a secondary, though useful, benefit. Certainly they led to Midway OTL, which was a dumb idea regardless of how it actually turned out for the Japanese.

Certainly, the US wants to bomb Japan as soon as possible, but the pressure to do so now, now, now is absent.

Guardian54 said:
1. ...Which means there is enough room to quickly expand the airstrip length. But I just found new documents that show 2000 miles is too long a range for B-17s, so scratch that.
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No, there isn't. There's other stuff there right now that would later be demolished in order to extend the air strip. This is not a quick or an easy job.


Guardian54 said:
"they want this island. What does it have that's unique? Oh, a flightless bird they'd probably eat to extinction like dodos... AHAHAHA No, we are AMERICANS. Our bird species are OURS, and Japan will not wipe any of our birds out... Besides, it's basically just hauling a couple chicken coops to Hawaii as the cost thumbing our noses at the Japanese..."
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Thumbing your nose, in a way they'll never know, for a bird that literally no one cares about. Yeah. That's going to happen.

That's really all I have time to address right now.
 
PAGDTenno said:
in a way they'll never know, for a bird that literally no one cares about. Yeah. That's going to happen.
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Informative with the map.
Too bad this won't be like that tale of Romans being alerted to a night attack by geese detecting the intruders...
Still, "flipping the bird" at the Japanese as an inside joke and unit mascot isn't quite "impossible" per se... and goes from that to merely "improbable" if Thompson remembers that particular casualty of the OTL Wake occupation and gives the Marines a hint that they could use it for a unit mascot or put it on the Wake Island Defender campaign medal (in which case you're probably going to be moving a few breeding pairs to the Honolulu Zoo... or hell, even having a few of the "unique to Wake Island" critters becoming pets for the Marines being paraded about on tour in the US as war heroes...).

And I'd guess they'd issue such a medal for sure unless Second Wake is a catastrophic loss for the USN, which, as previously mentioned, is highly improbable.
 
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landcollector said:
Why would he know about/remember that at all? Trying to save a very isolated bird species that's evolved to have a very particular diet is not something that is likely on his mind, nor should it be.
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Obviously, you are being perfectly reasonable and Insightful (I'm actually serious here).

The problem is that there is nothing else about Wake that's unique for a campaign badge to be struck with the image of. Unless you want an aerial map of the atoll, which seems awfully generic.

Then again I liked the "Battle of the Shitworks" badge from syipinc's China ISOT timeline, which had the image of, IIRC, a geyser (the main casualty of the matter was a sewage treatment plant being blown up by artillery, followed by the army camps downwind "getting shat on from a great height"). So my badge design considerations may be more than a little bit off to a lot of folks.

And as (probably) the first great victory scored against the IJN, there's no way in hell a commemorative medal wouldn't be struck.
 
Guardian54 said:
But if Wake was held for long enough, well, you can fly B-29s off it without having to assault any Japanese-held islands
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Three years. It takes three fucking years to get B-29s. They were introduced 1944.
Guardian54 said:
and it doesn't take much to make it a sucking chest wound for the IJN to attack over and over and OVER again
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THEY HAVE NO DEFENSES! THE ONE 5" GUN IS A GIANT TARGET! AND THEY ARE ON THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD FROM REINFORCEMENT! IT'S A DEATH TRAP FOR US! WAKE IS CLOSER TO TOKYO THAN HONOLULU!
Guardian54 said:
If Third Wake was to be launched the IJN can't do it before March 1942 at earliest.
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Why Third Wake at all? It's even more untenable than the Gdansk Corridor was in 1939.
Guardian54 said:
which is more necessary for the southern perimeter than a random atoll in the middle of nowhere
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Which is yet another reason why Third Wake wouldn't happen.
Guardian54 said:
Alternatively, they get so mad about Second Wake they throw the rest of the KB at Wake right away, in which case they still fail to take the island in an opposed landing, or suffer huge casualties doing it, attrite their airwings further, and, very importantly, give the Allies time to build up Rabaul.
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Literally how? Nobody is stupid enough to say 'gee. Those Americans sure are plucky. Better move the ENTIRE FUCKING IMPERIAL JAPANESE NAVY TO THIS ONE ISLAND TO BEAT THEM.' Do you know how ridiculous that sounds?

Especially in conjunction with you thinking they'd pick Wake over the Invasion of Rabaul.
Guardian54 said:
they want this island. What does it have that's unique? Oh, a flightless bird they'd probably eat to extinction like dodos...
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No. They wouldn't give a microscopic fuck about them.

What they would be worried about is 'how many hours do we have left before the sea isn't safe anymore?'

Because at that point, it means the evac is gonna be contested.
Guardian54 said:
The problem is that there is nothing else about Wake that's unique for a campaign badge to be struck with the image of. Unless you want an aerial map of the atoll, which seems awfully generic.
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You obviously underestimate how much crazier things are going to be for the next few months.

They won't care about campaign patches for quite a while. And by then, the war will be busy being, you know, fought.

Also, who cares about that ISOT? It has zero relevance here.
 
Hold on a second, guys. Midway actually served as a submarine base!
"The U.S. did consider Midway vital: after the battle, establishment of a U.S. submarine base on Midway allowed submarines operating from Pearl Harbor to refuel and re-provision, extending their radius of operations by 1,200 miles (1,900 km)." Battle of Midway - Wikipedia

So... any particular reason why Wake is incapable of same? I mean sure the lagoon is even worse than Midway's for trying to sail even BOATS in there, and is totally sealed off at low tide, but if they could base subs from Midway the south coast of wake has a "harbour" marked on the Wikipedia map and might be able to host at least tugboats that can maintain a refuelling buoy of some sort fed through an underwater pipe... the surrounding seawater is quite warm year-round and that makes maintenance of fuel temperature during pumping less difficult even for bunker fuel (the main danger of which during underway replenishment is becoming too viscous to pump through hoses if they fall in the water), let alone diesel for submarines (which can handle most Earth-surface temperatures just fine).

Burning Baron said:
even more untenable than the Gdansk Corridor was in 1939.

Literally how? Nobody is stupid enough to say 'gee. Those Americans sure are plucky. Better move the ENTIRE FUCKING IMPERIAL JAPANESE NAVY TO THIS ONE ISLAND TO BEAT THEM.' Do you know how ridiculous that sounds?
Especially in conjunction with you thinking they'd pick Wake over the Invasion of Rabaul.

What they would be worried about is 'how many hours do we have left before the sea isn't safe anymore?'

Also, who cares about that ISOT? It has zero relevance here.
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1. You exaggerate a bit. You at least have a couple days to leave Wake safely if Second Wake is won. Gdansk is literally hours to drive from end to end.

2. ...Midway: "Gee, those Americans sure are plucky, bombing Tokyo like that. Better move the ENTIRE FUCKING MAIN BODY OF THE IMPERIAL JAPANESE NAVY TO THIS ONE ISLAND TO BEAT THEM!"
Followed by "Oops..."
They are either bone-headed enough to give Rabaul more time to beef up... Or they are not and any possible Third Wake (highly unlikely as pulling out is much wiser) is in March at earliest. Both of which are good for the Allies.

3. Either "zero" if the USN loses, or "At least a day if not two or more" if the USN wins, which is more than enough time to evacuate everyone.
Please note the OTL convoy was going to be delivering ammunition and troops, which kind of implies not planning to abandon Wake at the time the convoy was assembled. Of course, things might have changed, but planning to force the Kido Butai to make a LONG detour back home instead of say advancing toward New Caledonia, which the Americans only landed troops on in March 1942.
"A garrison of about 16,800 U.S. troops, built around 51 Brigade and 70 Coast Artillery Regiment (Antiaircraft), was organized into Task Force 6814 and arrived at the island on 12 March 1942" The Pacific War Online Encyclopedia: New Caledonia
So at one point, New Caledonia was at hypothetical risk of being blitzed by the advance on Rabaul and the Solomons being heavily pushed by the entire KB if they didn't go on that pointless detour into the Indian Ocean. Sticking a rock in Japan's shoe at Wake (at least by leaving a radio post to fake a continued presence post-Second Wake, to be evacuated by a submarine later) is worth it just to cut off that possibility.

4. I'm mentioning the design as an example of "Please note that I probably have poor taste in campaign badge design, so me being unable to think of something else to put on the badge is not saying that there aren't other Wake-y things that can be put on there."
 
Guardian54 said:
Hold on a second, guys. Midway actually served as a submarine base!
"The U.S. did consider Midway vital: after the battle, establishment of a U.S. submarine base on Midway allowed submarines operating from Pearl Harbor to refuel and re-provision, extending their radius of operations by 1,200 miles (1,900 km)." Battle of Midway - Wikipedia

So... any particular reason why Wake is incapable of same?
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You mean besides the minor, completely unimportant, and extremely obscure fact, requiring hours of research and tedious calculations, that Wake is twice as far from Pearl as Midway? Absolutely nothing.
 
PAGDTenno said:
You mean besides the minor, completely unimportant, and extremely obscure fact, requiring hours of research and tedious calculations, that Wake is twice as far from Pearl as Midway? Absolutely nothing.
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...Fleet train, AGAIN.
This is basically a meme by this point.

IF: Question concerns US Pacific/Asiatic Fleet deployment patterns, 1940-1942.
THEN: Answer is "Fleet Train".

Would anyone care to explain to me why the USN even had anything bigger than a patrol boat in the Asiatic Fleet, or the IJN drown in its fantasy strategy of "bait them in, attrite, and smash" if the USN didn't have the fleet train to sustain operations that are just shy of halfway to the Philippines from Pearl??? (i.e. the carriers can't deploy near Wake on a sustained fashion).

Because unless the IJN thought the USN would send its battle line west without enough fleet train to turn the hell around and go home after intense combat (i.e. burning lots of fuel) if need be... even I have limits for how much "detached from reality" I'm willing to ascribe to the IJN's planners in the 1920s. Their strategy depended on the USN having enough oilers to reliably support their battle line in a push like that, while the reality was that the USN... what, deliberately did not build enough oilers specifically so they can have a legitimate reason to abandon the Western Pacific and build up for a couple years before grinding through with overwhelming force?
 
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Guardian54 said:
...Fleet train, AGAIN.
This is basically a meme by this point.

IF: Question concerns US Pacific/Asiatic Fleet deployment patterns, 1940-1942.
THEN: Answer is "Fleet Train".

Would anyone care to explain to me why the USN even had anything bigger than a patrol boat in the Asiatic Fleet, or the IJN drown in its fantasy strategy of "bait them in, attrite, and smash" if the USN didn't have the fleet train to sustain operations that are just shy of halfway to the Philippines from Pearl??? (i.e. the carriers can't deploy near Wake on a sustained fashion).

Because unless the IJN thought the USN would send its battle line west without enough fleet train to turn the hell around and go home after intense combat (i.e. burning lots of fuel) if need be... even I have limits for how much "detached from reality" I'm willing to ascribe to the IJN's planners in the 1920s. Their strategy depended on the USN having enough oilers to reliably support their battle line in a push like that, while the reality was that the USN... what, deliberately did not build enough oilers specifically so they can have a legitimate reason to abandon the Western Pacific and build up for a couple years before grinding through with overwhelming force?
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To the first question: politics. There's a reason the Asiatic Fleet was a dumping ground for the Navy's malcontents, and largely equipped with obsolete ships: the Navy knew such a force would be quickly annihilated in the event of a Japanese invasion, but politics demanded a visible force in the Philippines to say "We'll defend the Philippines!".

To the second question: well, there's a number of interlocking factors here. First, the Japanese plans assumed that an American force heading west would be in relief of the Philippines, and given their fear of the Philippines as a dagger pointing into their sea lanes, likely expected the US to use the Philippines as a base with pre-stored oil. This is not an unreasonable assumption; oil had to be stored for the Asiatic Fleet, and American range assumptions for their battleships had been built around steaming to the Philippines for decades. Second, it's likely Japan didn't know the state of the American fleet train. Naval intelligence is an imperfect science at the best of times, as demonstrated when the US assumed Yamato and Musashi were 45,000-ton ships with 16" guns until 1944. And third, the US designed their battleships to take on a lot of overload fuel. This had the unfortunate side effect of putting the armored belt and deck underwater, but it could be done to obviate the need for as much tanking, and it's a self-solving problem anyway.

And to the third: yes, the US Navy deliberately didn't build enough oilers to sustain operations in the Western Pacific. No, this wasn't so they could abandon the Western Pacific. It was budgetary. During the Interwar period, the US Navy had the money to build warships, or they had the money to build a large fleet train. Unsurprisingly, the US Navy picked warships, and it was the right choice, as a battle fleet is a lot harder to build than a fleet train.

It's the same reason as why the US didn't build cruisers and battlecruisers for most of the dreadnought era: Congress gave them enough money to build dreadnoughts or cruisers, not both, and the US Navy chose dreadnoughts.
 
CV12Hornet said:
And to the third: yes, the US Navy deliberately didn't build enough oilers to sustain operations in the Western Pacific. No, this wasn't so they could abandon the Western Pacific. It was budgetary. During the Interwar period, the US Navy had the money to build warships, or they had the money to build a large fleet train. Unsurprisingly, the US Navy picked warships, and it was the right choice, as a battle fleet is a lot harder to build than a fleet train.

It's the same reason as why the US didn't build cruisers and battlecruisers for most of the dreadnought era: Congress gave them enough money to build dreadnoughts or cruisers, not both, and the US Navy chose dreadnoughts.
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Exactly this. Until the Two-Ocean Navy Act - Wikipedia act of 1940 was passed as a direct result of the Fall of France, the USN was severely constrained in terms of funding. Even then the actual ships ordered by it were not in service until 1942 or later thanks to the long lead time for warship construction (and the shorter lead time for fleet train unit construction). At most there will be additional Benson and Gleaves-class DDs in service by this point thanks to the Two-Ocean Navy Act as the stopgap until the Fletchers (all 175 of them) are laid down.

Now that the Japanese have attacked, funding is no longer an issue and virtually every shipyard in the US will have more orders and work than they know what to do with, but even then it will take time to build and commission the ships ordered when Congress gives the Navy the proverbial blank check and orders the CNO to "Defeat Japan". Come late 1942 and 1943, the fleet oilier issue is much less of a factor thanks to the expedited wartime construction plus diversion of domestic petrochemical production from the civilian market into military stores as Bunker-C. However, that does CINCPAC no good right now since he has to fight the war with what he has available as opposed to what he is going to get in the medium term as new ships are launched and manned.
 
I'm just going to leave this


Before I go to work and am out of contact for the next four or so hours. Please don't blow up the thread while I'm gone
 
Thorthemighty said:
Give it to the EOD tech and have him dispose it safely.

Mahan: If I see that guy running, I don't care what you say, I am going to start running too.
Mahan, that's generally a good idea. An EOD tech at a dead run outranks everyone, even Admirals.
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MANY laps on the LONG track later:
EOD tech: "Why the hell's the whole base following me? I'm just training for a marathon..."
 
Necessary question! One I'm not sure had been asked before.

Did all the Japanese pilots that survived Pearl Harbor and saw Utah can now see any ship spirit or is it just that one pilot that saw Zuikaku?
 
CompassJimbo said:
Thus far? It seems to be just the one baffled pilot. He probably won't make it.
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It depends on Sky but I noticed that his named characters tend to survive longer.

Anyway, the reason I asked that is because if anyone can see shipgirls can suddenly see ship spirits then Admiral Thompson wouldn't have to worry about his case no more since practically anyone at Pearl could see shipspirits by then.
 
Thorthemighty said:
Mahan: If I see that guy running, I don't care what you say, I am going to start running too.
Mahan, that's generally a good idea. An EOD tech at a dead run outranks everyone, even Admirals.
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Wouldn't that be Shaw or Arizona instead since they had possibly the most famous photos of a USN magazine explosion during the war? Admittedly, neither happened in this AU, but the principle stands.

Spoilered for size:

Shaw:

Arizona:
 
My take is that Wake is simply too problematic to be worth the effort of trying to turn into a major air base under wartime pressures. It would just take to long and consume too many Seabee assets tone worth the commitment in the short and mid run, and would be near irrelevant in the long run. The US doesn't have the aircraft to use it until at least 44, and they will almost certainly have better locations by then.
 
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