Attempting to Fulfill the Plan MNKh Edition

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Bit of an oof on locating a deputy, hopefully we end up not getting one at all rather than getting one that's really bad. Looks like a pretty good turn overall, though. Nothing absolutely disastrous happening. (That we're going to get directly blamed for, at least). Curious who got that nat 100 though.
 
Not exactly but quite close as from what I've understand in order to get a middle income trap the economy of a nation need to essentially be stuck at level of manufacturing that while isn't essentially producing low quality assembly part for other manufacturer but failed to transition to more high-tech advanced industries or able to full control their own production cycle. Their essentially stuck being the middle man while not shit enough to do menial task but isn't good enough to produced the sophisticated and advanced task. And I don't think raising general labor cost contribute to middle income trap mostly. Though it does contribute to it.
I mean... You just said what he said with extra steps
 
Indicator adjustments from actions (assuming no additional stages or other changes)
General Labor: 25
Educated Labor: 3
Electricity: -133
Steel: -5
Coal: -13
Non-Ferrous: 0
Petroleum Fuels: -10
Petrochemicals: 0
Shouldn't Non-Ferrous be +3 from the hydroelectric cascades? Anyways, thanks for the tally. -5 steel will put us at 36, which is not much leeway. There is a possibility we'll have to make yet another steel mill next turn to avoid hitting 40 with Sevastopol completing. Forget about building any other truck plants along with it. Steel hell never ends. Good thing we're getting two more HI dice in 1969, though IDK if we'll have enough resources to activate them. With an 86 progress head start, going for stage 2 of Bakchar is probably best.

We can ignore Kursk for a while, we won't need all three mills for a bit and Kursk doesn't further the goal of developing the republics east of the Urals.
 
Here is the outlook for factional shifts this turn:

Ashimov 29
Kleshchev 50
Romanov 52
Kosygin 37
Podgomy 63
Dzhussoev 67
Gulyam 15

Podgorny continued to do strongly, though not as well as his previous slew of 90s. But I think that he maneuvered himself well enough that he should be able to take his OTL position of Chairmen of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, as well as solidify the hold he has on his faction. Now it remains to be seen if his luck bears out on the election, but he is certainly in a strong position. Looks like his shift to the left panned out for him so far.

Dzhussoev did very well too, so am guessing that he managaged to sucessfully fight mainly with Ashimov and to a lesser degree Kosygin and Podgorny over delegates, and managed to somewhat consolidate his authority. Klimenko is probably unhappy he wasn't a flash in the pan, a worker directed economy would definitely undermine the role of the Ministry, and any ideias of challenging the vanguardist character of the Party is also a very toxic position to have in the CPSU.

Gulyam ate shit, backlash to his proposed market policies and their previously most prominent proponent denouncing iy must have weakened his supporters willingness to stick with him. Anyway, dengism is not looking so hot right now, lets see if that continues into the elections.

Romanov did well for himself, got a very respectable result. That, the economic recovery, and his proposals in the Supreme Soviet (enforcing labor laws and the comission on CMEA were his initiatives, and they both rolled really well) means our positions on the conservative faction are hopefully now finally secured. Now we only need to survive the elections. Though thankfully as things are, the odds likely aren't as stacked against us as they were before in that regard.

Kleshchev has continued rolling well, looks like he managed not to croak this turn as he did OTL. Maybe his health is better TTL due to the war taking a different turn? Anyway, going by his new factional descriptions, it looks like he is trying to steer stalinism into political relevancy somewhat by modernizing its line.

Kosygin rolled ok, not great, but probably well enough that the next GS will still be his candidate well and his faction retained its coherence in the prelude to the elections. Which is good, if you take a look at the factions his is the most willing to work with us besides Romanov's of course. The improved economy should also benefit them.

Ashimov did mediocrely, which is good for us. He didn't do disastrously though, so his faction should remain decently strong though.
 
Here is the outlook for factional shifts this turn:
Seems like the way to some further democracy is open. The combination of a weakened reformist center and a strong liberalization faction should drag the party forward, plus the conservative vanguardists rolled terribly. That combined with a recovering economy, vastly increased wages across the board, a clean state sector should create a political peace Podgorny can use for reforms. I'm not happy about Kleshev staying relevant, but hopefully the remaining Stalinists croak next time.
 
Re: driving general labor prices above educated, the price scales are all arbitrary "really bad" to "really good" qualitative measures for each specific commodity, not all on the same objective scale. Like for example, even though coal has a higher price number than petrochemicals, refined synthetics are still more expensive than raw coal on a per-ton basis if you measure in rubles instead of arbitrary relative price units. Just compared to that same commodity in the rest of the world, our petrochemicals are more accessible in terms of purchasing power than the worldwide average while our coal is slightly less.

So even if general labor goes above the educated labor price index, the engineers are probably still making more money than the line workers, just not as much of a wide gap as most other parts of the planet in 1965-1969. Totally asspulling numbers here just to illustrate but it would be like raising the minimum wage to $30 or whatever while not adjusting white collar salaries, yes the gap between burger flipper and white collar engineer is suddenly narrower, and the burger flipper can do a lot with that extra income, but the engineer is still making their 6 figure contracted salary or whatever. So the gap has narrowed somewhat compared to global averages, but it's not like the burger flipper is making more money than the engineer in raw dollar terms, even though the burger flipper has a higher arbitrary price index than the engineer.
 
Indonesia, for one, is already cornered on the agriculture front, because they fucked that one up themselves, so a reform is not going to change anything here. EAF is poor enough that we can help them transition into extraction economy from the agricultural one without much trouble.

Wrecking the profitability of local agriculture and then helicoptering money in as aid is worse that letting our allies protect their farmers, even if we sent more aid than the value of the local economy that we out-competed with our cheap exports. The reason is because local production means value is spread evenly throughout these mainly peasant economies and can be circulated efficiently, with peasants being able to support themselves and buy local goods and services, while even an infrastructure as extensive as the modern Soviet system would struggle to distribute the benefits of aid as widely (and these agrarian and young systems are NOT as extensive as ours is). Further, much of the industry that will be worth building in these countries will be food processing, as sexy as steel mills and such are, food processing industry has played a vital and usually unsung role in every successful industrialization.

We would get a more equal society, good boost to economic growth and living standards, but it would also mean we get smtg like a +10 RpD per project across the board (except rocketry which I think isn't affected by labor prices).

I am not sure how the game works, but in the real world, the cost of engineers is the dominant factor that influences the cost of rocketry. The biggest reason why Russian rockets were cheaper than American rockets in the 90s and 00s is because Russian engineers were paid less, especially taking into account the difference in exchange rates between the dollar and the rouble. Even with SpaceX today, a major factor behind their cost advantage is that they pay their engineers less than companies like ULA or Arianespace.

Isn't that just basically the middle income trap?

Extractive industries become uncompetitive due to high wage costs, while advanced industries failed to thrive and start losing folks die to brain drain.

Last I checked no-one has managed to prove why the middle income trap exists, and there are alot more issues than just the ones you mention that tend to crop up when an economy is in the middle income stage.

For example, it could be much more specialized educations are needed to push productivity higher, whereas before an economy could grow by, for example, training lots of engineers. It could be a political issue where it takes time for countries to re-orient their political systems to support high productivity economies. It could be that middle income countries just can't grow through copying what worked for others so much, and the shift to groping out their own path means they have to slow down.

There may not even be one explanation for the middle income trap - each country might have a middle income trap unique to it. There are even still arguments about whether there IS a middle income trap.

Jovian Programs (1*-4)+45=41
Outer System Probes (1*-4)+17=13

Well, if we were going to roll low one one of these, I am glad it was the outer system probes. And we did start this early, so we have time at least to work on whatever issue cropped up here.

Since this is a combined program, I am guessing our people agreed on a design that was adequate for Jupiter and its moons, but underpowered for Saturn and beyond.

Regards,

fasquardon
 
From actions, none of these take autodice into account.
Dang, I don't know how I missed that. OK, combining your numbers with the passive change in the update:

Indicator adjustments from actions (assuming no additional stages or other changes)
General Labor: 19-6+25 = 38
Educated Labor: 42-3+3 = 42
Electricity: 296+184-133 = 347
Steel: 41+2-5 = 38
Coal: 55+6-13 = 48
Non-Ferrous: 64-4+0 = 60 (we'll find out what happens when we're exactly at the breakpoint, heh)
Petroleum Fuels: 41+6-10 = 37
Petrochemicals: 45+2+0 = 47

General labor is highest it's been in ages, we might push it past 40 next turn. At least the workers will be happy.

Our electricity reserves have been steadily building over this plan, we overbuilt auto power somewhat. We perhaps can go down to one coal dice next plan.

Steel will be just barely below 40, we need another stage right away.

Hydropower cascades are pulling through, we'll be well below 60 Non-Ferrous next plan. If we start another cascade project in the 9th plan, we'll likely go below 40 during the 10th.

I hope we completed a second stage of Samotor, because at 37 domestic price the CMEA price of fuel is probably still at or above the international price, which is why Poland is currently having a meltdown. Speaking of Poland, what is the enforced "Emergency Commission on CMEA" action supposed to actually do? Give us an opportunity to adjust how our trade relations with our clients work?
 
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Speaking of Poland, what is the enforced "Emergency Commission on CMEA" action supposed to actually do? Give us an opportunity to adjust how our trade relations with our clients work?
I don't know what exactly they entail but the mention of security commitments gives me the idea they mean anti-coup forces that prevent the governments of CMEA from being overthrown. My hope is that the good roll and lowering the fuel price means we did not have to send tanks or soldiers to CMEA
 
Probably not, as our little petrocrisis here means we're likely to loose the gas dice option altogether, IIRC.
Shit is this just speculation or Discordburo lore? Perhaps if we spend another 6 dice on oil rigs in 1969 we can show them the MNKh is still capable of bringing plentiful gas to the people.

We were looking elsewhere for problems but it turns out bad luck and investigation modifiers screwing up a little oil project without even a critfail has caused perhaps the biggest long-term problem of this plan as our political masters enter a hysteria about energy crisis.
 
Speaking of Poland, what is the enforced "Emergency Commission on CMEA" action supposed to actually do? Give us an opportunity to adjust how our trade relations with our clients work?
Uhhhhh that's one way to put it, I guess. Red Army units shipping over to Warsaw is technically adjusting our relationship, in a way. It's about tanks though, not trade barriers.

Shit is this just speculation or Discordburo lore? Perhaps if we spend another 6 dice on oil rigs in 1969 we can show them the MNKh is still capable of bringing plentiful gas to the people.

We were looking elsewhere for problems but it turns out bad luck and investigation modifiers screwing up a little oil project without even a critfail has caused perhaps the biggest long-term problem of this plan as our political masters enter a hysteria about energy crisis.
Discord, but also it was probably inevitable either way. Gas is just so much more profitable to sell to CMEA rather than burn for electricity at home. We have infinite dirt cheap coal that will last for centuries, and almost as much hydro potential, there's too much competition. Burning gas in power plants is just wasting value compared to selling it on to CMEA.

Weren't we planning for massed nukes from next plan onward?
Could that allow us to move away from coal power plants without building significant amounts of oil or gas fuelled ones?
Lol, lmao, no. Even if we manage full throttle investment in mass produced nukes they won't actually be a large share of our new capacity until the 1980s, and won't displace coal... ever? Or at least not until well into the 21st century, and that will be more renewables pushing out coal rather than nukes pushing out coal. It's really impossible to overstate how cheap and easy coal is compared to any other option. Especially now that we've got the canal built out to the infinite coal fields with enough accessible deposits to last us literal centuries. That canal never existed OTL and the USSR still built huge mountains of coal power, we're going to be even bigger fans of coal TTL with the ability to mainline cheap Kuzbas coal directly into our industrial core on a barge.
 
Lol, lmao, no. Even if we manage full throttle investment in mass produced nukes they won't actually be a large share of our new capacity until the 1980s, and won't displace coal... ever? Or at least not until well into the 21st century, and that will be more renewables pushing out coal rather than nukes pushing out coal.
That seems to underestimate how fast real world nuclear powerplant build outs at times could be. Surely it should be possible in the 20th century if one really pushed for it, albeit it might come at some cost in other areas. France certainly managed to get there once they decided to really go for it.

I thought in the real world at least in the real world once you really got nuclear construction going it wasn't that bad cost wise long term anyway, some more cost upfront and a lot less running costs.


Getting more gas power plants I guess meanwhile could be achieved if one just built out so much gas that the gas price crashed. That's kind of what happened in the USA, followed by a fairly fast transition to gas power in the USA at that, I believe it's now the dominant power generation type there.


Still, these are options one would have to commit to, rather then just do a bit of.
 
France doesn't have anywhere remotely near the domestic energy reserves that the USSR does OR the electricity consumption that we do, and even with mass production to keep the unit cost down we're still expecting nuclear power to be anywhere from 3-5x as expensive as an equivalent amount of coal capacity. The only reason nukes have a niche at all is how goddamn huge the USSR is, anything on the canal network is going to run on coal power but there's even more of the country that isn't on the canal network so fuel logistics give nukes a niche out in the middle of nowhere.

As for whether we can actually push coal off the grid with nukes, a fully spooled up mass production program for standardized nuclear reactor cores is going to yield ~150 power per turn starting in 1980 at the earliest (we need to build Atommash 1970-74 and then actually install the reactors over 1975-79, don't see the first point of power return until 1980). That's not even enough to fully keep up with new demand in 1968, much less expected 80's demand, much less exceeding new demand to push other generation methods out of the mix.

It can be a significant fraction of new capacity, but not 100%, and not enough to start pushing out the old pre-existing fossil mix. Which is still better than needing to get all our new capacity from fossil sources, when you combine nukes with hydro we could manage to at least keep all our new capacity going onto the grid in the 80s green. But phasing out older stuff is an even more immense task that I really don't see being realistic until the 21st century.
 
That seems to underestimate how fast real world nuclear powerplant build outs at times could be. Surely it should be possible in the 20th century if one really pushed for it, albeit it might come at some cost in other areas. France certainly managed to get there once they decided to really go for it.

I thought in the real world at least in the real world once you really got nuclear construction going it wasn't that bad cost wise long term anyway, some more cost upfront and a lot less running costs.


Getting more gas power plants I guess meanwhile could be achieved if one just built out so much gas that the gas price crashed. That's kind of what happened in the USA, followed by a fairly fast transition to gas power in the USA at that, I believe it's now the dominant power generation type there.


Still, these are options one would have to commit to, rather then just do a bit of.

Well, to do a bit of math.

Chita-1+Perm-1 and 2: VVER-300 nuclear cores set to be completed in 1964 (16 CI1 Electricity 7 CI3 Coal -2 CI1 Workforce)
3 VVER 300 nuclear cores account for 900 MW of power, and 16 electricity.
Currently we're building :

140 Electricity per year in coal power
160 electricity per year in gas
36 electricity per year in nuclear in VVER-500's
85 electricity per year in cascades (+ a bunch of stranded power used locally)

So, to translate to GW measures.
Over the 5 year plan, we expect to gain 180 electricity, which is about 10 GW of capacity, or 20 cores.
To fully replace all new gas and coal capacity we need 17 GW of capacity/year, or well 17 1 GW reactors per year.

The Messner plan build 50 over 15 years, so we'd have to go 5 times faster.
 
Discord, but also it was probably inevitable either way. Gas is just so much more profitable to sell to CMEA rather than burn for electricity at home. We have infinite dirt cheap coal that will last for centuries, and almost as much hydro potential, there's too much competition. Burning gas in power plants is just wasting value compared to selling it on to CMEA.
And how does SupSov expect us to deal with all the lung cancer that coal smog will cause hmm? Put all the power plants in the ass end of the Yenisei and build a super-thick power cable? Put all our infra dice into hydropower cascades (which will exhaust its potential by 1985 at optimistic estimates)? In-universe we didn't sell gas power as an environmental thing, we were encouraged to build it because the exhaust was harmless compared to the exhaust from Burn Rock. Sure you can install scrubbers to remove (some) particulates and sufur oxides, but there's been no mention of them in story yet. Did the USSR ever implement that OTL?
 
The Messner plan build 50 over 15 years, so we'd have to go 5 times faster.
The Soviet Union should have 4-5 times the pop of France, so that sounds about right. But it should also have 4-5 times the heavy industrial capacity compared to France as well, so one would expect this rate is indeed possible as such. Arguably it should be a bit easier in some ways, as increasing the rate of production of parts tends to give scaling advantages, more specialized industry and the development of a larger pool of experienced workers.

So just the scale shouldn't change to much I think.
France doesn't have anywhere remotely near the domestic energy reserves that the USSR does OR the electricity consumption that we do, and even with mass production to keep the unit cost down we're still expecting nuclear power to be anywhere from 3-5x as expensive as an equivalent amount of coal capacity. The only reason nukes have a niche at all is how goddamn huge the USSR is, anything on the canal network is going to run on coal power but there's even more of the country that isn't on the canal network so fuel logistics give nukes a niche out in the middle of nowhere.

As for whether we can actually push coal off the grid with nukes, a fully spooled up mass production program for standardized nuclear reactor cores is going to yield ~150 power per turn starting in 1980 at the earliest (we need to build Atommash 1970-74 and then actually install the reactors over 1975-79, don't see the first point of power return until 1980). That's not even enough to fully keep up with new demand in 1968, much less expected 80's demand, much less exceeding new demand to push other generation methods out of the mix.

It can be a significant fraction of new capacity, but not 100%, and not enough to start pushing out the old pre-existing fossil mix. Which is still better than needing to get all our new capacity from fossil sources, when you combine nukes with hydro we could manage to at least keep all our new capacity going onto the grid in the 80s green. But phasing out older stuff is an even more immense task that I really don't see being realistic until the 21st century.
3-5 times more expensive is weird, I recently looked at an analysis of relative costs and that was more like 2x or so. To get to that kind of cost would require USA levels of burdensome paperwork I think, which actually adds another factor 2 in cost in the USA, putting it in the 3x-5x range, but I kind of doubt that should be a problem in the USSR.

Also in theory you could parallelize some of that, as in you could start building Atommash at the same time as you start building out the larger concrete structures of the nuclear power plant, which would save some years there.

I agree it's a bit of a challenge though.
 
We were looking elsewhere for problems but it turns out bad luck and investigation modifiers screwing up a little oil project without even a critfail has caused perhaps the biggest long-term problem of this plan as our political masters enter a hysteria about energy crisis.
This isn't hysteria. I think we objectively have a problem because of fuel becoming more expensive. Poland's going into political unrest over this kind of thing; that doesn't happen unless fuel shortages are causing real economic consequences.

We've been quite conservative about things like roads and oil extraction, and as I've said many times before, I think it's because we keep projecting 21st century American progressive sensibilities onto a mid-20th century developing-country economic reality. It's biting us in the ass.

I'm not saying our modern sensibilities are wrong, but famously, "the past is a different country," and there's crude material realities that go with trying to transition a global region with half a billion or more people (the USSR + Eastern Europe in this timeline) into fully developed nations. You need massive amounts of steel and concrete and asphalt to create the built environment. You need massive amounts of electricity and heating fuel and the technology to generate the heat and power without burning fuels is just not there. The people in-game aren't willing to wait and slow-walk everything because we, OOC, have concern about global warming and so on.
 
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