Attempting to Fulfill the Plan MNKh Edition

Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
right as others are saying
equipping everything with hvac systems will require a massive expansion of electricity which in turn requires the massive expansion of coal & oil to create this electricity
this increased use of fossil fuels in turn will also increase co2 but also there's the environmental damage to the land from oil & coal extraction
and then emissions from transporting all this coal & oil
and also increased demand for the metals required to create these hvac systems which also require fossil fuels to mine & transport
everything's cyclical & interconnected
 
Just how massive an increase in electricity and metal use are we expecting from the extra AC units this crifail forces on us? Will it be that big compared to everything else pushing those numbers? Actually, in the absence of any critfails how few air conditioning or heat pump units could we have gotten away with producing? I would figure most buildings in the union would want one, we're not exactly a mild climate.

[]Plan: A steady and politically inoffensive course
-[]Aggressive Restructuring
-[]Prioritize Quality
-[]Accept the Goal
-[]Let it Pass

I waffled on the Labor Transfers, but I figured we'll get further opportunities to grow our dice in the future and decided that after Voznesensky's big jump it's better for further growth of the ministry to come slow and steady.
 
Look, I understand everyone is very gung-ho about fighting corruption, but the reality on the ground just changed. We now have the responsibility for handling an economic crisis, we no longer can just coast by and deliver underwhelming results with plethora of crit-fails and excuse ourselves before SupSov by saying it was necessary because of corruption. And if we do nothing, we ARE going to eat a bunch of crit-fails after we throw 40+ dice, and that's even without considering the bad effects of the anti-corruption rolls themselves. We absolutely cannot handle both the economic crisis and anti-corruption, not without assuredly tanking Klim's career and probably the institution of the MNKh as a whole.

As such, I say we get out while the going is good, use the excuse of the necessity of decisive action to purge the remnants of Voz's networks - which are the most corrupt parts of the ministry anyway - and then handle the economic crisis with a free hand. Once the external situation calms down, we can go back to the internal ministry struggle from a much more solid position.
 
Will taking one of the options to owe a favor spare us the extra +1 fail range and -5 modifier next turn? I wish it would, but this is an end of turn report. Logically, the events that would drop us down to the worst our stats will get will get in '67 have already happened. So unless it causes them to recover much faster somehow, I don't know how much it'll help.
 
Will taking one of the options to owe a favor spare us the extra +1 fail range and -5 modifier next turn? I wish it would, but this is an end of turn report. Logically, the events that would drop us down to the worst our stats will get will get in '67 have already happened. So unless it causes them to recover much faster somehow, I don't know how much it'll help.
If anti-corruption investigation stops, then obviously its effects are no longer in play, so we shouldn't have any malus from it.
 
Will taking one of the options to owe a favor spare us the extra +1 fail range and -5 modifier next turn? I wish it would, but this is an end of turn report. Logically, the events that would drop us down to the worst our stats will get will get in '67 have already happened. So unless it causes them to recover much faster somehow, I don't know how much it'll help.
Everything from the total removal of most of the modifier next turn if you stop it dead, to a reduction in its gain/faster cancellation. A large part of the modifier is the supsov looking over your shoulder and what that causes rather then sheer holes in personnel.
 
Everything from the total removal of most of the modifier next turn if you stop it dead, to a reduction in its gain/faster cancellation. A large part of the modifier is the supsov looking over your shoulder and what that causes rather then sheer holes in personnel.
What does the variability depend on? The options themselves, the result of additional anti-corruption rolls, something else?
 
Everything from the total removal of most of the modifier next turn if you stop it dead, to a reduction in its gain/faster cancellation. A large part of the modifier is the supsov looking over your shoulder and what that causes rather then sheer holes in personnel.
Jeez the investigations must be hella obstructive if the SupSov taking time to scrutinize all the records is screwing with our capabilities THAT much. There's gotta be a better way to hunt down grifters....

But for now, I have to agree that it's better to stop the investigations and halt the growing chaos.

I'm not sure what the overall mechanical impact of []Enable Consolidation vs []Apolitically Maneuver aside from the latter rolling one die less but narratively I'm leaning towards []Apolitically Maneuver because it casts a broader net. Enable Consolidation will send the message that you won't get looked at closely if you're not part of The Voz's clique which sounds like a recipe to grow a bunch of new rings in the future. Even the name is worrying, who is "consolidating" exactly?
 
Did a brief analysis, got some idea of synergies but I am eepy.

[]Bailouts:

- Put in some new leadership of these enterprises, bail them out, and hope for the best. Kicks the problem down the road a bit where we will hopefully have more resources (political and otherwise) to deal with it. Might be able to intervene via bureaucracy actions along the way, no guarantee.

[]Bailouts and Restructuring:

- Bailing the enterprises out as long as they follow a specific way of becoming profitable. As Klim says, this is likely to spike unemployment, which while we have some tools to address, will increase discontent. Relies upon these people knowing what they're doing, not impossible but anti-corruption will eat personnel.

[]Aggressive Restructuring:

- Break up the enterprise monopolies into smaller sections and allow them to be bought out by other enterprises. Doesn't specifically say bail them out. This will cause massive disruption in the economy, definitely getting a risk of failing our plan targets even more in regards to heavy industry. Also will likely spike unemployment.

[]Prioritize Quality:

- Tries to keep existing personnel and keeps the training pipelines reasonable. We can't just hire in numbers to fill problems. +2 to heavy industry probably indicates student cadre we brought in acclimating and gaining experience, given that it comes at the end of the plan.

[]Hiring Drives:

- MORE STUDENT CADRES. *ahem* Expands the student pipelines and accelerates promotions. This will bring inexperienced personnel to levels of leadership they're not prepared for (... why does this sound familiar) but if we need the numbers we need the numbers. Possibly goes well with us using student cadre already to build our support base.

[]Accept the Goal:

- "Babe it's time for more impossible targets" "Yes honey..." We're most likely not going to complete this metric, but accepting this now will prevent us from spending even more political capital right now. If we put in a good effort towards this, we can most likely eat less of a political cost later when we fail it... and by good effort I mean as many dice as we can spare.

[]Politically Argue:

- Try and argue back saying it's unrealistic, because it is. Relying upon the Supsov being busy with other matters, maybe true but we did get 2 crit fails that led to this, and Pravda is pushing for more roads as well. I'd say this is more politically costly than is worthwhile.

[]Deviate Towards Labor Policy:

- Uhhh look over there! Forced labor! As Klim says, this is politically risky and unpopular as we attempt to dodge this target. We're trying to get the Supsov to squabble over this while we just... don't do this target. If we roll bad this will not be good, especially considering what it took to get us in this mess.

[]Backstabbing:

- Now that we've convinced everyone that we wish to get our shit together, we can immediately use it as evidence of corruption to do more anti-corruption. Broadly speaking, a bad move, especially for the effectiveness of the ministry. While Klim thinks that this would limit his opponents actions, at least theoretically, I think this is him out of his depth. Considering fatigue with anti-corruption, this is likely to go badly as we destroy any peace in the ministry.

[]Let it Pass:

- Does nothing, effectively wasting the action. Will be the most politically popular with the Supsov, but anger people in the Ministry. Not a big fan of it tbh.

[]Enable Consolidation:

- Purges the Technocrats from the ministry and presumably tries to get our own cadre into positions of power. Considering our own lack of internal power-base in the Ministry, it will be unpopular internally, but people are willing to throw corrupt Technocrats to the wolves to save their own skins. People will know what we're doing though.

[]Apolitically Maneuver:

- Similar to the above, but less selectively purging the Technocrats. They're likely to be the ones purged, but we'll get out own supporters in the cross-fire. This will probably be less angering to the Ministry and Supsov, but our own (very weak) internal support base will be angered and damaged in the process.

[]Move Past It:

- Can we just stop anti-corruption guys? This would likely spend all of our political capital (probably going into political debt) to preserve some level of expertise in the Ministry. Likely to be most politically popular with the Ministry itself, but these favors will not come cheap.
 
Lol the RLA-3 just blew up like ~20% of an entire year's supply of boosters (pre-expansion), in hindsight it's definitely good that folks argued to get the Stalingrad expansion put in the budget. We can cope with losing the spacewalk milestone as long as we get some sweet sweet Moon dust to show off in 1967 like the Luna project is implying. I think the Intercosmos flight is another milestone as well, and the weather satellites/their data are being put to good use. Space is looking pretty good, if this is the worst our budget ever gets then honestly we're in for a decent long term program.

I'm gonna make a separate post with my thoughts about the votes later, but in short, RIP water/airports/anything but roads. We should push through the last couple dice of the power grid overhaul since it's over halfway done, but water is unfortunately going to have to stay on the drawing board if we do the road mandate.

Canal finishing is a relief, as long as we're timely with the Kuzbas and a steel plant in 1967 then we should be able to avoid any price shocks when it all opens up on the start of 1968. ASU giving a +1 also means that we can keep our modifier positive through this whole thing, especially if we take one of the off ramps for anti-corruption.

Kuzbas could use a surge of investment next year, and it sucks that Bryansk didn't complete but it does also kinda help with the steel budget so I'm not too upset. Especially since the nat 100 on Nikolayev is both immediately profitable, and it sounds like it's also partially vaccinating our auto industry against being absolutely murdered by the Japanese in 15 years. Slimming down inventories is... fine, it's 1966 and we're the Soviet Union, I don't think the JIT brainworms will get counterproductive for a long time yet.

Light and Chemical Industry
God, sucks that oil did so terribly. We're going to need to put probably ~3 dice on Samotor next turn just to make sure we actually get the damn oil secured, fuel going into a higher price bracket would definitely be bad in the middle of a recession. And then another couple on AC since it sounds like our reward for getting a nat 1 is even more demand. We might be able to divert from AC to petrochemicals, but I doubt prepared foods and consumer manufacturing will get much love in 1967. Made a solid amount of profitable investments this turn though, so hopefully we're not too hosed on budget after the enterprise failures are accounted for.

Meat continues to print money, and we got the seed program properly funded, so that should keep our target on track for another year. Still need to keep putting free dice in here, especially since meat is starting to hit diminishing returns and we need to fund mechanization. Insurance completing is good, we should probably still try to do the market insurance reform next turn if possible but a least we're proliferating basic weather/disaster insurance no matter what.

Hotels have a solid enough ROI that it's good we funded them, but profits are still a little underwhelming. Good thing we got the budget upgrade from the SupSov and can stop chasing profits quite as hard, because pivoting Services to... state services (garbage, childcare, public lawyers/banks etc.) instead of max profit is necessary to buy social peace.
 
[X] Plan Pls Gib Stability
-[X]Bailouts and Restructuring
-[X]Hiring Drives
-[X]Accept the Goal
-[X]Apolitically Maneuver

The light at the end of the tunnel is near, lets try to survive to get to see it in full.
 
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[X] Plan Opportunity in Crisis
-[X]Bailouts and Restructuring
-[X]Hiring Drives
-[X]Accept the Goal
-[X]Enable Consolidation

Hey, we have the perfect excuse to throw people we want out to the wolves. Let us not miss it.
 
[X] Plan Stabilize the Ministry
-[X]Bailouts and Restructuring
-[X]Prioritize Quality
-[X]Accept the Goal
-[X]Enable Consolidation

[X] Plan Stabilize and Fuck The Voz
-[X]Bailouts and Restructuring
-[X]Prioritize Quality
-[X]Accept the Goal
-[X]Apolitically Maneuver

It will make it less likely to achieve the road demand, but there's only three turns left in the plan anyway and I'm thinking long term. Hiring Drives gives us a whopping minus 3 to the ENTIRE ministry, and gains a measly two dice in exchange for that. Those are some seriously inexperienced student cadres. It barely comes out ahead vs Prioritize Quality in terms of total progress per turn even assuming we can keep activating all our dice, and is a notable drop in overall efficiency.

Then again, I'm operating on the assumption Klimenko is likely to get replaced due to the election at the end of the 8th plan even if he is fairly successful, so I'm not of mind to optimize towards him being highly respected in 1969 at the expense of general functionality. Is my fundamental assumption poor?
 
Bankruptcy Proceedings
I know Aggressive Restructuring sounds attractive, but I think it would be too disruptive to both our budget and the broader economy when we're already flirting with recessionary conditions and things like energy price breakpoints keep threatening to get crossed. Just shuttering Gorky for a year or two while we carve it up and sell it off would obviously leave us with an entire city at 100% unemployment, which is going to be spicy, but even beyond that it means shutting down a measurable fraction of CMEAs entire machinebuilding throughput.

The extra -200 RpY in restructuring costs would sorta break the bank too. I'll touch on this with my comments for Labor Transfers as well, but the budget infusion from the Supreme Soviet is only really enough to cover our loan repayments. We're still in a much better financial situation than expected, we essentially get to keep all the loan cash for "free" and still keep our base income where it was, but we don't have infinite money. Even just the -450 RpY from Bailouts and Restructuring will probably cause a net decrease in our discretionary income.

Especially after accounting for the unquantified but apparently significant non-Gorky failures across HI and LCI, I'm expecting our discretionary income to be about the same (e.g. ~3400) next turn as it was this turn, the budget increase is all eaten up and then some by loan payments + Bailouts and Restructuring, our profitable projects this turn should be enough to offset an additional ~200ish RpY of failures but we're definitely just treading water instead of rocketing ahead on budget.

It costs us like ~4500 RpY to activate all our dice on economic spending (which the economy definitely needs next turn), it will go up to probably more like ~4800 RpY with an extra 2 HI dice, and over 5000 RpY if we add 2 Infra dice on top of that. With a discretionary budget of ~3400ish and
~1400R from the loan left in the bank, it's not hard to do the math. We're already going to burn down most/all of the loan just in 1967 with just +2 HI dice.

I'm worried about even sustaining the extra HI dice into 1968-69, hopefully as the failures restructure and we do more profitable projects some income will bounce back and get us through the later years, but for 1967 even "just" two extra HI dice will eat essentially our entire loan. 2 Infra dice and a -3 roll penalty is a bad choice with this in mind, it's destroying our budget even faster while ALSO tanking our modifier into the negatives for the first time since the 1930s for... what? Getting slightly closer to the intentionally impossible road target we're planning to fail regardless? It's not worth the negative modifier and even worse budget stress.

Western USSR Regional Roads
I think politically we're sorta forced to just accept the target for now, but I want to be very clear up front: we WILL NOT meet it. It's just outright mathematically impossible unless we get multiple nat 100s every turn, this is a complication from a double crit fail after all. The options to argue seem too dangerous politically, especially if we're going to be asking for favors re: anti-corruption, so we're going to have to deal with intentionally failing a target. But again, this is just political maneuvering to make it our problem in 1969 rather than 1966, I have absolutely zero intention of doing all those roads and neither should any other planner. It would require truly obscene sacrifices, probably on the order of stripping Ag of free dice (and thus failing the other target we built our entire political strategy around), just really counterproductive economically.

So IMO we take the target, but in everybody's head you should all be aware that we're writing off Central Asian Regional Roads right from the starting line. Even just getting all the high cap + Ural/Caucasus regional roads will be a stretch, Central Asian regional roads on top of that is just not going to happen. We'll deal with the consequences of not funding them when we get to 1969, but I don't want to hear anybody yelling at me in 1967 or 68 that we're on track to miss that target. I know we are, you should also know we are, and know that there's nothing we can do about it without crippling some other sector of the economy.

Which is why I don't want to do Hiring Drives, the +2 Infra dice are just chasing a white whale that we're almost assuredly going to miss either way. So just keep our modifier positive and our budget a little more under control. Give up on actually completing that road target, we're gonna have to deal with that reality even if we take +2 Infra dice in all likelihood, our best bet is to make a visible effort of 9-10 dice a turn and then when we inevitably fail just hope that "well we really tried hard as you can see from all these records, and who cares about Central Asia anyways?" is enough to keep our job.

Call a Second General Meeting
Doing nothing is just a waste of the action, backstabbing sounds really counterproductive for ever having a trusting relationship with our underlings again, and asking for an outright hard stop to anti-corruption is a little too blatant. The economy is kinda falling apart though, we have to do something to salvage the Ministry here. I think I lean towards the "Apolitical" purges? Obviously there's no such thing, but we don't want to be seen as too politically motivated when accusations of Stalinism are already flying at Abramov and we're on thin political ice with asking for a favor already/planning to fail the road target. I definitely see the value in securing Klimenko's control over the Ministry though, so as long as it's one of the maneuvering options I'm willing to go either way.



All that said, it looks like my votes are for:
[X] Plan Stabilize the Ministry
[X] Plan Stabilize and Fuck The Voz

They don't break the bank on Gorky, don't load us down with extra Infra dice we couldn't fund anyways, and have the political slate I prefer.
 
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[X] Plan Stabilize the Ministry
[X] Plan Stabilize and Fuck The Voz

Edit:
[X] Plan Gorky Cooperatives and Ministerial Consolidation
[X] Plan Gorky Cooperatives and Apolitical Consolidation

[X]Plan moar jobs:
 
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Thank CrazyCryoDude for pointing out just how unsuited our budget is for taking on extra dice at cost of a malus. Some ballpark math to further elaborate on my points: Not counting rockery, we have 40 dice. Plus two HI we're getting anyway, so 42. Modifiers are all over the bloody place, but let's optimistically say averaging 10 over the rest of the plan with anti-corruption scaled back.

We get two extra infra dice on top at the cost of -3 global, that's an extra ~124 on average. But -3*42 = 126 progress less per turn from the malus. Barely even, we'd effectively be cannibalizing the rest of the ministry for infra progress. Moreso if we have to leave dice idle elsewhere to keep HI and Infra fully funded. Yeah we can probably build those roads if we pull up the floorboards to fuel the furnace, but is that really good for the ministry and USSR long-term?
 
While I agree with Cryo that we probably wouldn't be able to optimally utilize those dice this plan, I do think there is a very strong case for the hiring drives:

[]Hiring Drives: The time for mobilization is now, but that does not mean that every idiot and pensioner needs to be dragged back into service kicking and screaming. Hiring a larger number of students and accelerating the tracks towards promotions can help to replace valuable lost expertise and ensure that the ministry can continue functioning. Inexperienced personnel all over the place will cause problems, but we have dealt with worse with the anti-corruption investigation. (+2 Dice to Heavy Industry and Infrastructure) (-3 to Experience Bonus)

This is code for "fully utilize the college student to ministry pipeline and cadre printer". Doing this will mean we will have a younger ministry with fresher faces that got their careers made because of Klim. And while we might not immediately use all the extra infrastructure dice, it synergizes well with accepting the road mandate since it makes us look like we are acting decisively to solve that issue. Not to mention that the extra dice open us to the possibility of doing something like a HI-Services plan in 1970,. Atomash is coming, and so is the Service transition, the profitability failures this turn has been somewhat of a prelude to it, our largest heavy industrial enterprise was outcompeted on the lower end by China and the mid end by Japan. Our advantage in labor costs will start evaporating soon, and another Service plan under Klimenko would be great in adressing the issues caused by that. The malus is painful, but if we end the investigations that will be conpensated for. Anyway, I do understand why one would go for just the HI dice, but I don't think we should overlook this option.
 
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Thank CrazyCryoDude for pointing out just how unsuited our budget is for taking on extra dice at cost of a malus. Some ballpark math to further elaborate on my points: Not counting rockery, we have 40 dice. Plus two HI we're getting anyway, so 42. Modifiers are all over the bloody place, but let's optimistically say averaging 10 over the rest of the plan with anti-corruption scaled back.

We get two extra infra dice on top at the cost of -3 global, that's an extra ~124 on average. But -3*42 = 126 progress less per turn from the malus. Barely even, we'd effectively be cannibalizing the rest of the ministry for infra progress. Moreso if we have to leave dice idle elsewhere to keep HI and Infra fully funded. Yeah we can probably build those roads if we pull up the floorboards to fuel the furnace, but is that really good for the ministry and USSR long-term?
You are forgetting that we get HI dice two years early, which is far from nothing.

As for money, with the debt, we will have enough to have all dice active next turn, which is the most important turn both for politics and for handling the crisis. Even with large HI spending like starting on Sevastopol Plants with assumption they don't get cheaper after looting Gorky and rushing Kursk and Kuzbass to address resource costs, we can do other important stuff like oilfields, transportation enterprises and so on.

Yes, that means 1968 and 1969 we have to leave some dice idle after our debt money runs out, but so what? We'll have to do so anyway, because the debt money is going to be mostly gone even without additional dice. In fact, decisive action with more dice now can mean we get more income from our own actions and sector recovery/private enterprises than we would by saving some of our debt money, and even if that doesn't happen, I don't see the problem with having more freedom to choose where exactly we leave dice idle - because with no additional dice, we'll be practically forced to invest free dice into HI/Infra to recover the sector/go through the motions of fulfilling the road goal. With said dice, we'll be free to choose whether we want to leave free dice idle or invest them into LCI at the cost of Services or vice versa.

[] Plan INSERT NAME HERE
-[]4880/4885 Resources (5 Reserve), 44 Dice Rolled
-[]Infrastructure (11/11 Dice, 930 R)
--[]Western USSR Regional Roads, 3 Dice (255 R)
--[]Caucuses High Capacity Roads, 4 Dice (340 R)
--[]Central Asia High Capacity Roads, 3 Dice (255 R)
--[]Power Grid Expansions, 1 Dice (80 R)
-[]Heavy Industry (9/7 Dice, 1520 R)
--[]Kursk Steel Mills(Stage 1), 4 Dice (700 R)
--[]Sevastopol Technical Equipment Plants, 1 Dice (300 R)
--[]Kuzbas Deposit Exploitation(Stage 3), 3 Dice (360 R)
--[]Bryansk Truck Plant, 1 Dice (160 R)
-[]Rocketry (0/2 Dice, 0 R)
-[]Light and Chemical Industry (7/6 Dice, 790 R)
--[]Caspian Sea Petrochemical Extraction(Stage 1), 2 Dice (280 R)
--[]Samotor Field Development(Stage 1), 2 Dice (240 R)
--[]Modern Foods Production(Stage 1), 3 Dice (270 R)
-[]Agriculture (7/6 Dice, 740 R)
--[]Domestic Meat Programs(Stage 2), 4 Dice (440 R)
--[]Agronomy Institutes, 1 Dice (100 R)
--[]Increasing Mechanization, 2 Dice (200 R)
-[]Services (10/10 Dice, 900 R)
--[]Distribution of Banking Branches, 1 Dice (80 R)
--[]Expanded Childcare(Stage 4), 3 Dice (210 R)
--[]Transportation Enterprises(Stage 2), 3 Dice (330 R)
--[]Legal Consulting Programs, 1 Dice (80 R)
--[]Universal Distribution Systems, 2 Dice (200 R)
-[]Bureaucracy (0/4 Dice, 0 R)
 
Suddenly crashing investment in 1968 is not a viable strategy, that's just going to fuck up the economy even worse. It relies on the assumption that we've both bottomed out on the recession instead of just getting warning signs, and the idea that we will fully fix everything in one turn and not need to triage further in 1968. We should absolutely be planning to ration the loan out over at least 1967 and 1968, 1969 is probably too much of a stretch goal to have any loan left for but I'm very opposed to blowing it all in 1967 and hoping that somehow we make up like 1000+ resources worth of shortfall in a single turn to avoid crashing the economy again when investment cuts out from full throttle with no warning or taper.

We made +330 on profitable projects this turn, with lots of low hanging fruit and intentionally chasing profits instead of utility. Repeating that performance is unlikely to say the least, and even if we did it wouldn't even make up half of the "missing" loan money if we were more intentional with the rationing. We can't spend our way out of a budget crisis.
 
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