[X] Plan Just A Merchant
-[X] "I apologize, if I gave you offense your highness. I am after all just a humble merchant in these lands, picking up bits and pieces on my travels. With what I gathered, I felt it unlikely that the Sultan would bother you over this, given recent events." Lay it on a bit thick. She should be perfectly aware that 'humble merchant' is not exactly the title most would bestow upon you.
-[X] "It is said that many feel it in their bones that the City of Brass has become weak and complacent. Of the war going poorly and the enemies of the Sultan gathering to strike him down. Even the firewhales no longer cover in fear before the Efreeti, instead striking down their hunters and offering good coin to any who are willing to bear arms in their defense." A bit of news from around.
-[X] "There are rumors afloat of an entire convoy of his simply vanishing. They tell of a Red Dragon having come, carrying wrath in his heart against the Sultan and wielding flames that burn so hot that even spirits of pure fire are consumed by its touch. It was said that he cares not for conquest or supplication, but only for the riches he can claim from his slain foes. Some even say that he would come to aid any who oppose the Sultans armies, just to bring them low and take the spoils from those he felled." Now, if she has a good sense motive or True Sight, this should be obvious. If not, the mix of our initial offer and the tale we spin here should be more then enough to let her connect the dots while maintaining plausible deniability if the Efreeti are listening in.
-[X] "But let us not speak about politics. I am, after all, a merchant. Though I doubt that any blades I could offer would earn me anything except laughter in these halls, there are other things I deal in. Some that might be quite interesting to you in such troubled times." *procure a flask of Liquid Ice* "After all, the Efreeti garrison of your lands certainly ensures your safety, but it would not do to rely entirely on them. They might be called away to aid another loyal retainer of the Sultan. It might be wise to prepare for the event that they might suddenly disappear." We have contraband weapons and are perfectly willing to murder a few Efreeti for nothing more then their dead bodies and worldly posessions. Deal?
I like doing these kind of talks.