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Springtime of Nations II: A European Republic Quest

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[x] Plan: Counter-Imperialism and Realpolitik
- [x] Denmark and its overseas territories shall remain under Allied control.
- [x] Scandinavia must withdraw from the Imperial League.
- [x] Scandinavia does not have to pay reparations.
 
Plan: Sound Toll + Free Hand in the East leaves available leverage "unused". Is there an advantage to this? I don't see anything in the last update indicating that we can bank leverage for the next round of negotiations.

It's a decent enough plan in spite of that, but I'm rather tempted to insist on Scandinavian neutrality as well. Once neutral, with a bit of luck they'll start to like it and we won't have to worry about them anymore.

Let's All Get Along is all about not using our leverage, it seems. Though the outcome would still be acceptable, what exactly would be the advantage?
 
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[X] Plan Let's All Get Along
-[X] Denmark shall be an independent state.
-[X] Scandinavia must withdraw from the Imperial League.
-[X] Scandinavia does not have to pay reparations.
 
Etranger said:
. Any proposal above 0 Leverage (+1 or more) will be automatically accepted, with bonus effects to international relations if the Leverage total is positive.
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Driven by Apathy said:
here an advantage to this? I don't see anything in the last update indicating that we can bank leverage for the next round of negotiations.

It's a decent enough plan in spite of that, but I'm rather tempted to insist on Scandinavian neutrality as well. Once neutral, with a bit of luck they'll start to like it and we won't have to worry about them anymore.
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basically the plan is not "using" those extra points in order to get a better relations boost with the entente so we have a more free hand in the east to do stuff before the entente intervenes
 
[X] Plan: Baltic Gate (1 Leverage)
-[X] Denmark shall remain under Allied control.
-[X] Scandinavia must be made to accept neutrality.
-[X] Scandinavia does not have to pay reparations.
 
Woltaire said:
basically the plan is not "using" those extra points in order to get a better relations boost with the entente so we have a more free hand in the east to do stuff before the entente intervenes
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Not a bad plan. And it will also make us look more reasonable to the Americans.

I think plan "let's all get along" would be overdoing it a bit, though. At that point, I'd start worrying the other side will mistakenly conclude we're so eager for peace because our military situation is much worse than they know.

[X] Plan: Sound Toll + Free Hand in the East
-[X] Denmark shall remain under Allied control.
-[X] Scandinavia must withdraw from the Imperial League.
-[X] Scandinavia does not have to pay reparations.
 
[X] Plan: Counter-Imperialism and Realpolitik -
-[X] Denmark and its overseas territories shall remain under Allied control.
-[X] Scandinavia must withdraw from the Imperial League.
-[X] Scandinavia does not have to pay reparations.

This is in every conceivable way the best option

Iceland shall not become a Poland!
 
spiritualatheist said:
Scandinavia isn't going to be a threat in the next war. If we keep Denmark and continue our naval build-up (as we should!) Then they're going to even less ability to actually do anything in the next one than they did in this one, since even for the Royal Navy forcing the straights is a losing proposition.
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A threat we can deal with fairly easily and not a threat are entirely different things. I'm not worried they'll beat us, I'm worried we'll have to allocate efforts to that theater better spent somewhere else.
 
Nyvis said:
A threat we can deal with fairly easily and not a threat are entirely different things. I'm not worried they'll beat us, I'm worried we'll have to allocate efforts to that theater better spent somewhere else.
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To be frank there's no conceivable world where Sweden is able to build up a threatening fleet before the next war, they aren't going to be able to send their land forces to fight in France without exposing Stockholm, and any fleet the British try to base there is begging to be cut off and destroyed in detail. They aren't a problem for us until airplanes start getting really effective.

I also think that they'll hesitate before jumping headfirst into the Entente. They're far too dependent on the Baltic trade to risk pissing us off, and we can use a Sound Toll to exert a tremendous amount of influence on their internal economy. They probably won't ally with us directly, but the +4 leverage from the Sound Toll plan is likely to make them quite favorably disposed to us, especially since we aren't demanding any reparations.
 
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Okay, there's a reasonably convincing plurality for the front-runner, the last vote was three hours ago, and most crucially, I've already pre-written the planning post. As such, I'm calling the vote here.
Scheduled vote count started by Etranger on Jun 22, 2023 at 7:31 PM, finished with 90 posts and 70 votes.
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War Planning: June 1898-August 1898
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    • War Planning: June 1898-August 1898
    ​

    The Treaty of Gothenburg is signed by the end of the month. Despite tying up German land and naval forces for the better part of a year, and inflicting substantial damage on the Marinewehr in the process, the Scandinavian Union is allowed to exit the war with minimal losses, save the cession of Denmark. While this would normally be a substantial blow, the fraying ties between the Scandinavian states, largely due to how the Jutland front unraveled, would likely have spelled the end of the union regardless.

    Denmark is left to the stewardship of the Triple Alliance, with its disposition to be determined following the war's conclusion, and King Christian is pensioned off by the Scandinavians rather than endure his representative's constant hectoring. Finland's disposition is left ambiguous, pending a resolution of the conflict with the Russians.

    The Danish overseas colonies devolve to Britain; the British representative pays both groups of Danish representatives to take the Faroes, Iceland, Greenland, and the Danish West Indies. Iceland is to be given autonomy as a British dominion, while the Faroes are annexed into Britain proper, Greenland is made part of British Canada, and the Danish West Indies become part of the British West Indies.

    Two competing schools of thought emerge among foreign observers regarding German intentions. The first adheres to the classic realpolitik line: despite its revolutionary nature and radical internal policy, the Republic is fundamentally pragmatic when it comes to international affairs, and can be dealt with normally. The second, drawing inspiration from more nationalist and pseudo-sociological sources, claims that letting the Scandinavians off easy shows that this is due to their affinity with their "fellow Goths," their desire to achieve full German unification, and their intrinsic animus with the "Byzantine Slavic despots to the East." There are even some who have taken to calling the conflict the "Fifth German Civil War."

    Regardless, both Scandinavia and the Entente are surprised and relieved by Germany's apparently pacific intentions, and the German representative is congratulated on achieving "a just and civilized peace" by her British counterpart. Trade with Scandinavia resumes immediately, while lines of credit are notably easier to acquire with British and French banks, and there is an overall easing of tensions between Western and Central Europe. For now, anyway.

    With the Alliance having concluded negotiations with Scandinavia, the northern front of the Great Eastern War comes to a close. Only Austria and Russia remain in the war, but losing their extremely junior partner does little to defang their much larger military machines. The following summer is likely going to be a bloody affair, if it's anything like the spring preceding it.


    What is to be done?

    The Polish Front
    [] [POLAND] Strengthen defensive positions in Poland.
    Army Group Poland will focus on building up defensive positions and logistical support within occupied Poland, while restricting its movements to repulsing incursions.

    [] [POLAND] Reallocate troops toward the Austrian front.
    In addition to the aforementioned defensive efforts, send two or three armies to reinforce Army Group Austria.

    [] [POLAND] Initiate an offensive toward Konigsberg (Gold).
    As well as being the former capital of Prussia and home to numerous Republic-sympathizing Germans, Konigsberg is a major supply port for the Russian Baltic Fleet, and losing it would further hamper League maritime efforts.

    [] [POLAND] Initiate an offensive toward Minsk (Green).
    Minsk is over 500 kilometers away from Warsaw, and it's unlikely that anything but the most dedicated effort would see the Landwehr anywhere near there by the end of summer, but Bialystok and Grodno are both in the line of advance, and pushing deeper into Russia proper would certainly upset the League's defensive strategy.

    [] [POLAND] Initiate an offensive toward Lvov (Red).
    Taking Lvov and by extension Russian Galicia would effectively cut off the rail-based supply lines between the League's two major powers, as well as establish control over one of Russia's major industrial areas.

    The Austrian Front
    [] [AUSTRIA] Strengthen defensive positions in Austria.
    Army Group Austria will focus on building up defensive positions and logistical support within occupied Austria, while restricting its movements to repulsing incursions.

    [] [AUSTRIA] Reallocate troops toward the Polish front.
    In addition to the aforementioned defensive efforts, send an army or two to reinforce Army Group Poland.

    [] [AUSTRIA] Initiate an offensive toward Brno (Gold).
    Taking Brno would allow the Landwehr to secure Moravia, link up with the Polish front, and put pressure on Vienna from an entirely separate front. This last development would also serve to extend (and therefore weaken) the League's defensive line around the Austrian capital.

    [] [AUSTRIA] Initiate an offensive toward Vienna (Green).
    Vienna is very well-defended, but it is also the beating heart of the entire Habsburg empire. Even seriously threatening it would force the League forces in Austria to reorient their entire strategic outlook, and taking it could prove deadly to the Austrian imperial project.

    [] [AUSTRIA] Initiate an offensive toward Klagenfurt (Red).
    The rail junction at Klagenfurt is the lifeline of the Austrian Alpine defensive line. Attacking it would be very risky, because any offensive force could potentially be caught between the defenders on the line and the League armies outside Vienna, but if successful, the Alpine line would crumble, freeing up the Italian and Spanish forces for their own invasion of Austria.

    The Italian Front
    [] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to stay on the defensive.
    Allowing the Italian and Spanish armies to fortify and rest over the winter will help ensure that they're fully prepared for a spring offensive.

    [] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to put pressure on the League.
    Asking the Allied forces to make attacks against League fortifications in the Alps likely won't accomplish much in terms of territory taken, but it will pin the defenders in place.

    [] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to initiate a full offensive.
    A serious effort to take the Alpine line would be costly and difficult, but as part of a larger strategy, it could result in overrunning those defenses and moving into Austria and Slovenia proper, paving the way for a joint Allied attack.

    The Baltic Front
    [] [BALTIC] Maintain the Baltic blockade.
    Keeping the Allied combined fleet on station in the Sound and around Denmark will maintain its position and continue constricting League trade without incurring any major risk.

    [] [BALTIC] Deploy the Allied fleet to contest the eastern Baltic Sea.
    The Allied combined fleet is the dominant force in the Baltic, and moving east to threaten Konigsberg or Klaipeda could be quite useful strategically, and support an offensive against those coastal cities as well. This will also maintain the blockade of the Sound and the western Baltic.

    The Mediterranean Front
    [] [MED] Ask the Allies to maintain the situation in the Mediterranean.
    By maintaining the blockade on the Austrians, the Allied Mediterranean fleet can keep the pressure on without serious risk.

    [] [MED] Ask the Allies to threaten the Dalmatian coast.
    Dalmatia is singularly unfriendly to any sort of amphibious operation, but after Hoarfrost, even a threat to the region may serve to dislodge some Austrian troops and force them to defend the long, complicated coastline, which could prove strategically useful.


    Welcome to the next phase of the Great Eastern War. The following update will encompass June 1898 through August 1898. Summer is the "war season" and is an ideal time for bold, decisive movements.

    Each offensive option includes a colored arrow on the map indicating its general direction of advance. Additional territory besides that in the way of the arrow may be taken.

    Please vote for ONE of the sub-options in each category in the form of a plan. However, you may vote for AS MANY plans as you like. I'm looking for a convincing plurality in support of the winning plan; if the result is ambiguous, I may go to a run-off or flip a coin.

    All planks include full utilization of Allied resources, including additional mobilizations, domestic resistance movements in enemy territory, and common sense. Suggestions are welcome but non-binding.

    Here, have an example plan:

    [] Case Ostrich
    -[] [POLAND] Strengthen defensive positions in Poland.
    -[] [AUSTRIA] Strengthen defensive positions in Austria.
    -[] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to stay on the defensive.
    -[] [BALTIC] Maintain the Baltic blockade.
    -[] [MED] Ask the Allies to maintain the situation in the Mediterranean.

    24-hour moratorium to make plans, then 24 hours to vote.
     
  • Threadmarks
    • Good writing, etranger01. Thus far the war remains broadly popular among the Alliance, correct?
     
    If I read the tenor of the players right. . .

    [] Case Vigo*
    -[] [POLAND] Initiate an offensive toward Lvov.
    -[] [AUSTRIA] Initiate an offensive toward Brno.
    -[] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to initiate a full offensive.
    -[] [BALTIC] Deploy the Allied fleet to contest the eastern Baltic Sea.
    -[] [MED] Ask the Allies to threaten the Dalmatian coast.

    *as in, "the Carpathian."
     
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    [] Plan: Operation Mousetrap
    -[] [POLAND] Reallocate troops toward the Austrian front.
    -[] [AUSTRIA] Initiate an offensive toward Klagenfurt (Red).
    -[] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to initiate a full offensive.
    -[] [BALTIC] Deploy the Allied fleet to contest the eastern Baltic Sea.
    -[] [MED] Ask the Allies to threaten the Dalmatian coast.

    We have won ourselves breathing space with our leniency against Scandinavia, and I propose to use it. The goal of this plan is to encirle and destroy Austria's Alpine armies, potentially knocking them totally out of the war or at least forcing them to further weaken their state by replacing reservists with conscripts. With 3 armies from Poland and one from Denmark we will decisively outnumber the troops Austria has, even with their Russian allies and conscripts. Meanwhile, a threat on the Dalmatian coast and a full offensive from the Italians will totally pin their Alpine forces in place. With Italy and Spain through the Alps and potentially millions of soldiers encircled Austria would be finished as an offensive threat.
     
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    [] Plan: Tightening the Noose
    -[] [POLAND] Initiate an offensive toward Lvov (Red).
    -[] [AUSTRIA] Initiate an offensive toward Brno (Gold).
    -[] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to put pressure on the League.
    -[] [BALTIC] Deploy the Allied fleet to contest the eastern Baltic Sea.
    -[] [MED] Ask the Allies to maintain the situation in the Mediterranean.

    [] Plan: Habsburgs Delenda Est
    -[] [POLAND] Initiate an offensive toward Lvov (Red).
    -[] [AUSTRIA] Initiate an offensive toward Vienna (Green).
    -[] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to initiate a full offensive.
    -[] [BALTIC] Deploy the Allied fleet to contest the eastern Baltic Sea.
    -[] [MED] Ask the Allies to threaten the Dalmatian coast.

    I see one of these as the best choice for us at this stage. The first puts pressure on Austria and cuts them off from outside supply, but does not risk substantial forces. We'll be exceptionally well positioned to take Vienna in the fall, and have the Italians and Spanish go all in at the same time. The second goes for a more decisive blow, which I think could work, but will be costly.

    I think Klagenfurt is too risky to try for, and while Case Vigo is similar to my first plan, I think it'll result in more casualties for the Spanish and Italians with little to show for it.
     
    [] Case Republicsberg
    -[] [POLAND] Initiate an offensive toward Konigsberg (Gold).
    -[] [AUSTRIA] Strengthen defensive positions in Austria.
    -[] [ITALY] Ask the Allies to stay on the defensive.
    -[] [BALTIC] Deploy the Allied fleet to contest the eastern Baltic Sea.
    -[] [MED] Ask the Allies to maintain the situation in the Mediterranean.

    This is not as dramatic as some of the other plans, but it does let us knock out a major warm-water port that Russia relies on while adding to our pool of recruits.
     
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