Voted best in category in the Users' Choice awards.
That's the voter's job to evaluate, but I will say that these are expanding trade along current land routes, not blazing new trails.
The knowledge a voter has about the state of the land roads between Estalia/Barak Varr and the Empire's closest river is different from Mathilde's IC knowledge. I'd say it is even lower than that if a random well read Imperial citizen with decent amounts of common knowledge.

Personally I can't even say if 9 in 10 Estalian caravans make it or if 9 in 10 would get eaten by gribblies.

Beyond that it isn't even her job to know this stuff. So if she actually is as clueless as a IRL quest participant that enjoys wiki binging and reading source books then that is another argument for gunboat diplomacy because she would be speaking out of her ass when she says that the Karaz Ankor could just make up for the lost trade because that advice would require at least basic knowledge of what amounts of list trade we are talking about and how making up for it would look like. Nobody here us an imperial logistics officer, let alone a Dwarven one. Nobody here has ever traveled with a caravan through the Old World.

There's not a post in the thread I haven't read.
Wow. My utmost respect for that. It's definitely not an easy feat.
 
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So express word of GM confirmations
For the same reason that Barak Varr bankrolled K8P.
Barak Varr is willing and able to bankroll the Imperial economy for a limited time. Money in the vaults can be translated to resources, production and transport to get goods where they are needed.
That's the voter's job to evaluate, but I will say that these are expanding trade along current land routes, not blazing new trails.
Existing routes to the Karaz Ankor will be reinforced and expanded.

Thus, the cost of trade support is mainly that the loose production of the Empire and Karaz Ankor that normally can be used to be ready for a crisis will dry up. Mercenaries would be hired to escort trade caravans. Dwarf smiths will be cranking out more expensive weapons to make up for the loss of cheap imports.

These things will hurt and potentially kill people as part of opportunity costs. These things are not the same as a war, which has much more definite and final costs.
 
[X] They can make up for the loss in trade
lets not poke the elves withj a dwarf shaped stick.
especially when the Empire is in the crossfire
 
Wonder if Karak Eight Peaks has any records of money in their recovered treasury owed to Marienburger families. Using that as a carrot (oh, here's all this money we were able to recover from our good friends the Dwarfs) or a stick (guess the Dwarfs are keeping that since you're rebelling against the Heir of Sigmar) could be interesting?
 
Dwarf Rune smiths also play that game, they play it so well they won a war against Ulthuan in fact.

The modern dwarven empire is a shadow of what they once were and their runesmiths have fallen further still, The high Elves on the other hand haven't lost the majority of their magical knowledge, the tower of hoeth was created significantly after the war of the beard and the High elves magical knowledge has instead grown.
 
The knowledge a voter has about the state of the land roads between Estalia/Barak Varr and the Empire's closest river is different from Mathilde's IC knowledge. I'd say it is even lower than that if a random well read Imperial citizen with decent amounts of common knowledge.

The main road is the same road the Expedition took when it first set off from the Empire. There can be trouble from the Forest Goblins, but it's usually fine, and Barak Varr is able to project power along the route with their monitors. The problem is a matter of logistics: what it takes one ship to deliver would take a lot of wagons and a lot of wagoneers and a lot of draught animals and a lot of time, and that's not something that can be scaled up easily. The other major route is the River of Echoes that goes under the Vaults between Estalia and Wissenland, but that's got a hard size limit and requires rowing.

So while there will inevitably be casualties because there's very few entirely safe roads in the setting, the main factor isn't deaths, it's the expenditure of money and resources and influence it will take to replace the near-frictionless wind-powered free energy machines that we call 'ships' with muscle power.

Wonder if Karak Eight Peaks has any records of money in their recovered treasury owed to Marienburger families. Using that as a carrot (oh, here's all this money we were able to recover from our good friends the Dwarfs) or a stick (guess the Dwarfs are keeping that since you're rebelling against the Heir of Sigmar) could be interesting?

Karak Eight Peaks fell before the ancestors of the Empire arrived in the Old World.
 
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Then we bring dwarven ambassadors who swear that if Marienburg doesn't stop, the shooting starts. And dwarves are not known for swearing oaths they will not keep.
Hmm. On one hand, I very much doubt that the Marienburg merchant families have attended Mathilde's EIC seminars on how "lol surely the Dwarves won't actually go to war over something like X" is the attitude of a soon-to-be-dead fool. On the other hand, that this situation is occurring proves that they must intimately understand that people can and will go to some lengths to protect their interests when money is on the line

Considering how many pages if discussion there have been, this thread has been remarkably civil. Bravo guys.
Yeah, it's been pleasantly surprising.

It's already backed from the fact that only one of the options outlined flat out states will have both the Karaz Ankor and the Empire significantly weakened for years, and it isn't the option of gunboat diplomacy. Not might weaken, or could weaken, will weaken.
In the interests of clarity, no, it only says that it will weaken, it does not say flat out that it will significantly weaken. Whether or not any amount of weakness is something unsustainable for five years or if it is something that can be endured for that period is something that I imagine the voters must weigh the impact and risks of for themselves.

I for one don't think the risks and potential long-term impacts of Ulthuan and the Karaz Ankor get anywhere close to each other's grills are outweighed by the costs of tightening our belts until the canals are completed, but I'm not so sure of that stance that I'm going to be salty when I'm inevitably outvoted.
 
So while there will inevitably be casualties because there's very few entirely safe roads in the setting, the main factor isn't deaths, it's the expenditure of money and resources and influence it will take to replace the near-frictionless wind-powered free energy machines that we call 'boats' with muscle power.

@DragonParadox

What is your response to this new information from BoneyM that they won't be paying in literal mountains of lives to use your wording.
 
I also don't understand the conclusion that making up the loss in trade will definitively avoid a war. Yes, if everything goes wrong the blockade busting can cause issues with the elves. But let me posit an alternate scenario.

Marianburg decides to intervene with deniable assets, like they've warned of before. Having loads of money, and wanting to make sure the job gets done right, they go to the best saboteurs for hire in the Old World, Clan Eshin. And Clan Eshin keeps records of this, because its not like the silly beard things can read our writing yes-yes?

But no, they're wrong, because now the Dawi can read it. An operation goes wrong, and the Dawi capture the correspondence. How do you think the Dawi would respond to that?
 
Marianburg decides to intervene with deniable assets, like they've warned of before. Having loads of money, and wanting to make sure the job gets done right, they go to the best saboteurs for hire in the Old World, Clan Eshin. And Clan Eshin keeps records of this, because its not like the silly beard things can read our writing yes-yes?

What makes you think Marienburg wont go turbo-all in on deniable assets to fuck the canals up and everything in between if we blast their city?
 
Dwarf Rune smiths also play that game, they play it so well they won a war against Ulthuan in fact.
Plus those runesmiths now have Arcane Fulcrum levels of power and neither the elves nor Marienburg do.
Because Thorek is going to tell Barak Varr about this super special substance without our input, and Barak Varr is going to send Rune Lords with Anvils of Doom on top of their dreadnoughts? Those priceless, irreplaceable things?
I also don't understand the conclusion that making up the loss in trade will definitively avoid a war. Yes, if everything goes wrong the blockade busting can cause issues with the elves. But let me posit an alternate scenario.

Marianburg decides to intervene with deniable assets, like they've warned of before. Having loads of money, and wanting to make sure the job gets done right, they go to the best saboteurs for hire in the Old World, Clan Eshin. And Clan Eshin keeps records of this, because its not like the silly beard things can read our writing yes-yes?

But no, they're wrong, because now the Dawi can read it. An operation goes wrong, and the Dawi capture the correspondence. How do you think the Dawi would respond to that?
That would be contrived.
 
The main road is the same road the Expedition took when it first set off from the Empire. There can be trouble from the Forest Goblins, but it's usually fine, and Barak Varr is able to project power along the route with their monitors. The problem is a matter of logistics: what it takes one ship to deliver would take a lot of wagons and a lot of wagoneers and a lot of draught animals and a lot of time, and that's not something that can be scaled up easily. The other major route is the River of Echoes that goes under the Vaults between Estalia and Wissenland, but that's got a hard size limit and requires rowing.

So while there will inevitably be casualties because there's very few entirely safe roads in the setting, the main factor isn't deaths, it's the expenditure of money and resources and influence it will take to replace the near-frictionless wind-powered free energy machines that we call 'boats' with muscle power.
The real issue is that a horse can move somewhere between 100 to 300 miles on a horse-drawn wagon load of feed. This makes really long range caravans extremely difficult.
 
In the interests of clarity, no, it only says that it will weaken, it does not say flat out that it will significantly weaken.
If the weakeningwas not significant, it would not be mentioned.
Sure, it won't break the empire, but i doubt the potential downsides are less than what the break blockade would have.
 
@DragonParadox

What is your response to this new information from BoneyM that they won't be paying in literal mountains of lives to use your wording.
I don't know about him, but I am switching.

[X] They can make up for the loss in trade

It's not the more likely thing to happen, but it has now become the preferable one in my eyes. There is a good chance that Barak Varr, if informed in full about the situation, will decide to do some blockade busting anyway. And there is also a non-zero chance that no Dwarf will want to literally bankroll the Empire over this. But choosing this option in this vote increases the chances of an optimal outcome IMO.
 
What makes you think Marienburg wont go turbo-all in on deniable assets to fuck the canals up and everything in between if we blast their city?
Because they would have already seen the costs of inciting Dwarven wrath? Like, if Marienburg gets caught fucking around, there will be no debate about war or how much we destroy. Threatening to cause economic damage in a political move is feasible provocation for naval action. Actually killing dwarves and directly attacking their caravans? Marienburg would be burnt to the ground.
That would be contrived.
That specific scenario, maybe, but we also have plenty of reasons to get involved regardless of how, exactly, Marienburg plays their hand. I highly doubt Mathilde would be unable to find some manner of evidence pointing to them.
 
If the weakeningwas not significant, it would not be mentioned.
Sure, it won't break the empire, but i doubt the potential downsides are less than what the break blockade would have.
It really depends on whether or not breaking the blockade is succesfull.

If breaking the blockade fails (or even if it succeeds), then the fleets of the Dwarves, Marienburg and Empire will be savaged. It'll be pirate season.
So, in that case we'd be dealing with the economic effects of a blockade, the economic effects of widespread raids around the coast, and the inability to secure alternate trade routes because we need our forces against Marienburg.
 
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