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Warhammer Fantasy: Divided Loyalties - an Advisor's Quest

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Swordomatic said:
A breakthrough is ruinous, yeah. But that's what Kazador and his lads are for. The minutiae of force deployment will be up to Belegar but he'll probably agree that ten thousand rangers in heavy armour (which is what the Throng of Karak Azul is in essence) are the ideal force for shoring up minor breaks in the line before they become major breakthroughs, and maybe even launching small counterattacks to relieve pressure elsewhere as the orcs look for a bigger fight.

My preference - and it is preference - is to hold the line. I think the morale boost of holding all eight peaks will save more lives than ceding territory for lives, because there are so many orcs that even if ten out of twelve lines kill ten thousand orcs as they fall, the remaining two lines will still have to face a hundred thousand more. The exhaustion that makes Defense In Depth a capable and terrifying doctrine cannot be inflicted here.
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We have 3 lines for a reason.
I don't think it's wise to rely on 2nd line to be the one that stops the greens, they are likely to still have a critical mass to just punch through in one place.
Use Doomtower to massively thin out the enemy numbers if we can, bleed the rest with withdrawal strategy, and then stop them cold with the third line.

Sure we'll loose a peak, but once they no longer have a warboss or bigboss to push them, we can start again with our tried and tested "kill the biggest guy and watch the rest fight" strategy while the more conventional forces start to push out or destroy them.
 
So, I had a silly thought: the Ork army is heaing to the west gate, all the while being constantly bombarded by massed artillery fire against a target-rich environment. They arrive to the gate... and not a single Ork is trickling out. Wondering what the hell is going on, someone takes a look and what do they see?

It seems that some blinged up mad lad of a white beard decided that what he will do today is to blueball Mathilde (and the entire thread) by parking his ass at the narrow-ish west gate and make a whole mountain of Ork corpses to plug that hole shut.
 
Keep in mind that Kazador considers a mountainside ideal terrain. Any orcw having a go through the caves are fighting his Thunderhorn AND mountaineering thong bonus
 
Neshuakadal said:
We think that with the Eye of Gazul, massed artillery, and collapsed entrances the orcs strength will be so drained that our defenses at Karag Mhonar and Karagril will be able to hold the line.
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This, right here, is what I am questioning, because Belegar's attitude when describing the second-line plans suggests he doesn't believe it's possible.

Don't get me wrong - I'm entirely confident the Hold plan will result in loads of dead Orcs. I'm confident that our artillery, archers and Anvils will kill them in job lots at they attempt to dig out the Karag entrances. I'm confident that they will continue to reap that bloody toll on the rear of the mob as the Orcs pile into the fortifications behind those collapsed entrances. I'm confident that the defenders of those fortifications will wreak havoc on the Orcs that enter.

And based on Belegar's attitude, I am reasonably confident that the Orcs will still win that fight. They'll dig through, punch through the defensive lines, and then they'll have the run of Mhonar, Karagril and Kvinn-Wyr while the surviving K8P forces retreat for their final stand against the much-diminished horde.

Now, that could very well be the better plan. It's definitely the plan the Dwarven forces are better at, and Swordomatic makes a good point about the potential morale bonus of holding the line. Maybe we'll even get some really good rolls and the Karags won't fall at all... but I wouldn't bet on it.

Alternatively, we could surrender the Karags, do some damage to the Waagh and have the big fight in the Eastern Valley with our side basically entirely fresh and unharmed. That means we'll be able to hit the Waagh with the Eye of Gazul for both active phases of the battle (Caldera and Eastern Valley), but the infantry and artillery will lack the chokepoints the Karag entrances would provide.

After that, it's a matter of mopping up the remaining leaderless stragglers.

Which plan is better? I'm still not sure.
 
tryingtobewitty said:
This, right here, is what I am questioning, because Belegar's attitude when describing the second-line plans suggests he doesn't believe it's possible.

Don't get me wrong - I'm entirely confident the Hold plan will result in loads of dead Orcs. I'm confident that our artillery, archers and Anvils will kill them in job lots at they attempt to dig out the Karag entrances. I'm confident that they will continue to reap that bloody toll on the rear of the mob as the Orcs pile into the fortifications behind those collapsed entrances. I'm confident that the defenders of those fortifications will wreak havoc on the Orcs that enter.

And based on Belegar's attitude, I am reasonably confident that the Orcs will still win that fight. They'll dig through, punch through the defensive lines, and then they'll have the run of Mhonar, Karagril and Kvinn-Wyr while the surviving K8P forces retreat for their final stand against the much-diminished horde.

Now, that could very well be the better plan. It's definitely the plan the Dwarven forces are better at, and Swordomatic makes a good point about the potential morale bonus of holding the line. Maybe we'll even get some really good rolls and the Karags won't fall at all... but I wouldn't bet on it.

Alternatively, we could surrender the Karags, do some damage to the Waagh and have the big fight in the Eastern Valley with our side basically entirely fresh and unharmed. That means we'll be able to hit the Waagh with the Eye of Gazul for both active phases of the battle (Caldera and Eastern Valley), but the infantry and artillery will lack the chokepoints the Karag entrances would provide.

After that, it's a matter of mopping up the remaining leaderless stragglers.

Which plan is better? I'm still not sure.
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So I don't really know where you are getting the attitude of Belegar being that they will win that fight I found a portion that talks about the strategy.

BoneyM said:
"That's unlikely to be a problem. What will be a problem is that any that survive - the ones in the eastern edge of the Caldera - will be looking for an escape. And that means they're likely to push on Karagril and Karag Mhonar, which they should be able to reach the blocked entrances of without becoming vulnerable to the Eye, and they'd have enough reason to start excavating them."

"I couldn't dream of a better killing field than the Caldera," Prince Gotri says with a smile.

"I could," says King Kazador. "Halfway up a mountain."

"Second, how we react to intrusion, either the Wyvern Caves being reached or the Karag entrances being breached. We can hold them until forced to fall back - which I envision to be a long and very bloody fight, but though we'll take a heavy toll from the enemy, they will be costing us lives. Or we could prepare fallback positions, traps, explosives, and all sorts of other ugly surprises throughout the entire mountains, make every step cost them in blood while barely exposing our own forces to them.
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Here he isn't even sure that the second line will be reached at all. He is just laying out the possibility. They can hold them until forced to fall back but being forced to fall back is not guaranteed here. Again he is just presenting the possibility. If the heavy toll from the enemy breaks them then all is well and good.

Just because he is presenting three lines of defense doesn't mean he wants or even expects all three lines to be used. He is simply going through possibilities. I re read the update several times and I couldn't find anything that suggests Belegar thinks the orcs will win the second line. He is simply presenting the case for if they do.
 
veekie said:
Uh dude, theres enough orcs to need to retake three peaks by assault if they get in
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And we do not have the numbers to stop them from getting in.
Trying to hold the second line may end up costing us the battle here and now.
Having to retake 3 peaks is still an upgrade from when this whole thing started.
 
tryingtobewitty said:
No it does not. The Eye of Gazul can't reach the entrances to Karagril and Karag Mhonar, and once the Orcs break through they will be underground and immune to the Anvils, artillery and gyrocopters as well as the Eye. This happens in both second line plans, the difference is how many Dwarves and Orcs die first.
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The Eye of Gazul destroys the reinforcement feeds for any such attempt, which allows the rest of the emplaced artillery and mages/runelords to concentrate on those near the entrance.

Orks are bullshit.
But Orks without even improvised mining tools or siege weapons attempting to break through even hastily put up Dwarf fortifications across entrances while under bombardment will not do very well either.
tryingtobewitty said:
As I just said, both plans risk tunnel fights in freshly captured Karags. The Hold plan just means the forces on both sides will be smaller when those tunnel fights happen, due to much of both sides dying at the Karag entrances.
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This is where I disagree.
The risks are not equal. One plan deliberately lets Orks into a Karag and guarantees that there will be tunnelfighting.
The other only expects tunnel fighting if things go really badly.

tryingtobewitty said:
After that, it's a matter of mopping up the remaining leaderless stragglers.
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We have quite literally seen Ork mobs autogenerate Warbosses.
At least half our warboss kills come from one waagh that kept generating new leaders as we killed them. Don't count on leaderless; the reason we don't want to kill the current warboss is the risk of the Waagh splintering.
 
tryingtobewitty said:
This, right here, is what I am questioning, because Belegar's attitude when describing the second-line plans suggests he doesn't believe it's possible.

Don't get me wrong - I'm entirely confident the Hold plan will result in loads of dead Orcs. I'm confident that our artillery, archers and Anvils will kill them in job lots at they attempt to dig out the Karag entrances. I'm confident that they will continue to reap that bloody toll on the rear of the mob as the Orcs pile into the fortifications behind those collapsed entrances. I'm confident that the defenders of those fortifications will wreak havoc on the Orcs that enter.

And based on Belegar's attitude, I am reasonably confident that the Orcs will still win that fight. They'll dig through, punch through the defensive lines, and then they'll have the run of Mhonar, Karagril and Kvinn-Wyr while the surviving K8P forces retreat for their final stand against the much-diminished horde.

Now, that could very well be the better plan. It's definitely the plan the Dwarven forces are better at, and Swordomatic makes a good point about the potential morale bonus of holding the line. Maybe we'll even get some really good rolls and the Karags won't fall at all... but I wouldn't bet on it.

Alternatively, we could surrender the Karags, do some damage to the Waagh and have the big fight in the Eastern Valley with our side basically entirely fresh and unharmed. That means we'll be able to hit the Waagh with the Eye of Gazul for both active phases of the battle (Caldera and Eastern Valley), but the infantry and artillery will lack the chokepoints the Karag entrances would provide.

After that, it's a matter of mopping up the remaining leaderless stragglers.

Which plan is better? I'm still not sure.
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Normally I would agree with you in that a series of fallbacks and traps would be the optimal solution to this situation, as the Karags and Dawi tunnels are natural chokepoints to hold before being overrun and falling back. If we didn't have The Eye and the Artillery already set up then I would agree with you.

The argument for holding the Karag entrances is that the longer we can keep the orks out in the open, the longer we can shell them with the artillery, magic, Anvils and The Eye. Once they take the Karags, that option disappears.

The cold calculus of war states that this will lead to short-term more losses in Dawi lives as they attempt to hold those ramparts, but at the same time this will lead to more Ork deaths in the barrage.
 
I think that once they are at the second line, Eye is no longer able to reach them.
Now, keeping the orcs at the gates to be bomberded would kill a shitload of orcs, but i'm not convinced that it would kill more orcs than the withdrawal plan, and it absolutely would kill more dwarves, and we don't have the numbers to trade lives like that.
 
Valmond said:
I think that once they are at the second line, Eye is no longer able to reach them.
Now, keeping the orcs at the gates to be bomberded would kill a shitload of orcs, but i'm not convinced that it would kill more orcs than the withdrawal plan, and it absolutely would kill more dwarves, and we don't have the numbers to trade lives like that.
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But we'll trade more lives once they overrun the Karags. Consider the Eye, Artillery and two (!) runic anvils. Once they're in the karags, those options are off the table, entirely, until the possible last stand in the eastern valley.
 
Valmond said:
And we do not have the numbers to stop them from getting in.
Trying to hold the second line may end up costing us the battle here and now.
Having to retake 3 peaks is still an upgrade from when this whole thing started.
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Holding them from getting in means ten thousand dwarfs fighting some forty orcs at a time behind fortifications, the orcs just have functionally unlimited replacement rate until the Eye and Artillery wipes their backline.

This is vastly easier than removing ten thousand orcs from tunnels they hold.
Lupercal said:
Good point. Changing my vote. There are now TWO voters for the Wyvern Caves! :V
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...fuck I just saw my typo
 
Valmond said:
I think that once they are at the second line, Eye is no longer able to reach them.
Now, keeping the orcs at the gates to be bomberded would kill a shitload of orcs, but i'm not convinced that it would kill more orcs than the withdrawal plan, and it absolutely would kill more dwarves, and we don't have the numbers to trade lives like that.
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So if the eye fires they will go to the two safe zones in the mountain. The entrances to Karag Mhonar and Karagril. So the eye won't be able to reach them even before the second line is reached. But! Both of those places are in range for our artillery and we can force the orcs to fight at a disadvantaged local front while our artillery demoralizes their backline. We don't get that massive morale difference with the withdrawal tactic.

As for the withdrawal plan killing more orc in the long run, the orcs have massive massive numbers of snotlings. Those snotlings are going to be the ones eating all the traps so I am very hesitant to say the withdrawal plan will kill any significant number of orcs at all. And they can decide they are happy where they are and so not move any further. Sure we don't lose any more dwarfs but they also don't lose any more orcs and are now solidly in the mountain.
 
Asheram said:
But we'll trade more lives once they overrun the Karags. Consider the Eye, Artillery and two (!) runic anvils. Once they're in the karags, those options are off the table, entirely, until the possible last stand in the eastern valley.
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Trade now vs trade later.
We can take more time to push them out of the Karags once there is no longer a critical mass of a WAAGH oushing them, bring in reinforcements, do hit and run tactics.
The whole point of withdrawal is to make them bleed, without bleeding ourselves.
But if we lose too many when the line breaks, and i am pretty sure it will break, we might just loose to a point of no recovery.

veekie said:
Holding them from getting in means ten thousand dwarfs fighting some forty orcs at a time behind fortifications, the orcs just have functionally unlimited replacement rate until the Eye and Artillery wipes their backline.

This is vastly easier than removing ten thousand orcs from tunnels they hold.
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You are assuming lot about those fortifications, the whole problem is that we have not had time to properly fortify the entrances.
Had we had a couple years to just fortify properly, take out any entrances we can't hold, and so on, sure, i'd have no problem with trying to hold against a foe that outnumbers us only 20 to 1, but as it is, that line will break, and once it does, orcs will pour in with minimal resistance.
 
Neshuakadal said:
So I don't really know where you are getting the attitude of Belegar being that they will win that fight I found a portion that talks about the strategy.
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You quoted it yourself.

BoneyM said:
"Second, how we react to intrusion, either the Wyvern Caves being reached or the Karag entrances being breached. We can hold them until forced to fall back - which I envision to be a long and very bloody fight, but though we'll take a heavy toll from the enemy, they will be costing us lives.
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Belegar doesn't say that we can hold the line unless we're overwhelmed. He says we can hold the line until we're overwhelmed. Being overwhelmed is phrased not as a possibility, but as a certainty.

Neshuakadal said:
Here he isn't even sure that the second line will be reached at all. He is just laying out the possibility.
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Check his phrasing.
"That's unlikely to be a problem. What will be a problem is that any that survive - the ones in the eastern edge of the Caldera - will be looking for an escape. And that means they're likely to push on Karagril and Karag Mhonar, which they should be able to reach the blocked entrances of without becoming vulnerable to the Eye, and they'd have enough reason to start excavating them."
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Belegar is only unsure that the second line will be reached in that he's not absolutely, 100% certain. The odds the battle will be won in the Caldera are very low.

uju32 said:
The Eye of Gazul destroys the reinforcement feeds for any such attempt, which allows the rest of the emplaced artillery and mages/runelords to concentrate on those near the entrance.

Orks are bullshit.
But Orks without even improvised mining tools or siege weapons attempting to break through even hastily put up Dwarf fortifications across entrances while under bombardment will not do very well either.
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The reinforcement feeds will be inside the shadow of the Caldera lip and the citadel. The Eye will not apply for the second phase of the battle, and the artillery can't hit nearly as much area.

This is where I disagree.
The risks are not equal. One plan deliberately lets Orks into a Karag and guarantees that there will be tunnelfighting.
The other only expects tunnel fighting if things go really badly.
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You can continue ignoring Belegar's opinion on the matter, but the fact remains that both plans will result in tunnel fighting. The difference is that in the Hold plan the tunnel fighting will be to the bitter end, while the Withdraw plan minimizes tunnel fighting in favor of the Eastern Valley fight.

We have quite literally seen Ork mobs autogenerate Warbosses.
At least half our warboss kills come from one waagh that kept generating new leaders as we killed them. Don't count on leaderless; the reason we don't want to kill the current warboss is the risk of the Waagh splintering.
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And those new leaders kept fighting amongst one another and generally being incompetent on average. A splintered Waagh before it reaches the Caldera is bad, but a splintered Waagh inside the Karak is purely to our benefit.

Asheram said:
But we'll trade more lives once they overrun the Karags. Consider the Eye, Artillery and two (!) runic anvils. Once they're in the karags, those options are off the table, entirely, until the possible last stand in the eastern valley.
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There is nobody in the Karags that will be overrun. The point of the Withdraw plan is to go directly from Caldera fight to Eastern Valley fight, inflicting some casualties on the Waagh in the process.

Neshuakadal said:
But! Both of those places are in range for our artillery and we can force the orcs to fight at a disadvantaged local front while our artillery demoralizes their backline. We don't get that massive morale difference with the withdrawal tactic.
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And they can decide they are happy where they are and so not move any further. Sure we don't lose any more dwarfs but they also don't lose any more orcs and are now solidly in the mountain.
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This is a 400,000 Orc Waagh. Do you seriously think they'll just stop when there's a fight in front of them?
 
Neshuakadal said:
So if the eye fires they will go to the two safe zones in the mountain. The entrances to Karag Mhonar and Karagril. So the eye won't be able to reach them even before the second line is reached. But! Both of those places are in range for our artillery and we can force the orcs to fight at a disadvantaged local front while our artillery demoralizes their backline. We don't get that massive morale difference with the withdrawal tactic.

As for the withdrawal plan killing more orc in the long run, the orcs have massive massive numbers of snotlings. Those snotlings are going to be the ones eating all the traps so I am very hesitant to say the withdrawal plan will kill any significant number of orcs at all. And they can decide they are happy where they are and so not move any further. Sure we don't lose any more dwarfs but they also don't lose any more orcs and are now solidly in the mountain.
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You think those snotlings are not going to do damage to fortifications as well?
They can just swarm over whatever we have set up, eventually there will be simply a ramp of snotlings for orcs to walk over, but in the tunnels, the orcs will eventually have to dig through the piles of dead snotlings because withdrawal is not going to just mean traps, it means choke points and constant fortifications in the tunnels that will stop any snotlings dead, literally, making sending snotlings in eventually a problem for the orcs.
 
You know this "snotlings will just deal with traps" thing feels odd to me.
Sure, orcs are not mindless, but i doubt the orcs would just keep driving snotlings into the tunnels the dwarves just retreated into.
Sure it would be a reasonable tactic, but orcs pumped up on WAAGH are not know for being that reasonable.

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Also, even if the orcs do drive snotlings forward to deal with traps, that sill slows them down and gives the next fortified position more time to prepare to kill the orcs.
 
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Valmond said:
You know this "snotlings will just deal with traps" thing feels odd to me.
Sure, orcs are not mindless, but i doubt the orcs would just keep driving snotlings into the tunnels the dwarves just retreated into.
Sure it would be a reasonable tactic, but orcs pumped up on WAAGH are not know for being that reasonable.
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Herding snotlings (or goblins) in front of your waagh to eat up all the boring traps you expect the enemy to have laid so the boyz can get stuck in is orc tactics 101
 
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