Barth wasn't really spot on with his dragon lore, anyway, there was very little he, Maester Thomax and Munkin could have taught us that we don't already know.

But on the other side of things, some pages of his books survived, and we actually got an entire copy of Dragonkin, Being a History of House Targaryen from Exile to Apotheosis, with a Consideration of the Life and Death of Dragons when we copied all the books in Castle black. We also got a copy of Jade Compendium along with it.
Wait, we did? o_O I completely missed that.

We need to record which rare canon books we've collected. Not with a separate entry for each book, that'd take up too much space. Maybe just with a list with links to appropriate wiki pages somewhere in the Library post.
 
Wait, we did? o_O I completely missed that.

We need to record which rare canon books we've collected. Not with a separate entry for each book, that'd take up too much space. Maybe just with a list with links to appropriate wiki pages somewhere in the Library post.

We only know this because I am autistic thorough and it's a natural conclusion that we managed to get both copies since Castle Black has the only known surviving copy of the former, and one of the latter.
 
We only know this because I am autistic thorough and it's a natural conclusion that we managed to get both copies since Castle Black has the only known surviving copy of the former, and one of the latter.
Well, this is definitely something to brag about.

Especially since we now have three different copies since there are three different libraries.
 
Engines of War

There's a copy of this one in Winterfell, though considering we gained some Engineering knowledge, @DragonParadox might be able to confirm if we secured our own copy or not.

Signs and Portents

Thought to be lost, some pages seem to have survived. Harlaw was looking for them at some point, though only made some success years from now. We need this book.

Those are really the only two other texts besides Unnatural History worth pursuing or worrying about.
 
Engines of War

There's a copy of this one in Winterfell, though considering we gained some Engineering knowledge, @DragonParadox might be able to confirm if we secured our own copy or not.

Signs and Portents

Thought to be lost, some pages seem to have survived. Harlaw was looking for them at some point, though only made some success years from now. We need this book.

Those are really the only two other texts besides Unnatural History worth pursuing or worrying about.
We can really just go through this:

Books and scrolls

Point out to DP where certain copies aught to be and which libraries we've copied for our own, and then we can gloat over all the rare canon books we own.
 
We can really just go through this:

Books and scrolls

Point out to DP where certain copies aught to be and which libraries we've copied for our own, and then we can gloat over all the rare canon books we own.

Was just looking there.

Most of that other stuff we probably have, and a lot of it is garbage written by biased authors from both sides of the Narrow Sea.

The problem is that a lot of the more peer reviewed texts are going to be the really, really old ones, because you would have had Valyrians from all over the world criticizing each other's works and stuff, leaving little room for blatant lies because in the academic world it would have been a humiliation to be proven wrong. Valyria was probably pretty cut throat in even (and especially) that circle.

Some books written by Maesters are at least not trying to be overly biased, as evidenced by that biography of Queen Visenya that Richard arranged to have bound for Dany, so we'll doubtlessly see use for copying libraries across Westeros, but there is definitely going to be a political objective behind a lot of their writings. Some were made for the honest goodness of spreading knowledge (or boasting of their deeds), but it depends on the person writing them if they'd let their inherent biases muddy the waters there.
 
Was just looking there.

Most of that other stuff we probably have, and a lot of it is garbage written by biased authors from both sides of the Narrow Sea.

The problem is that a lot of the more peer reviewed texts are going to be the really, really old ones, because you would have had Valyrians from all over the world criticizing each other's works and stuff, leaving little room for blatant lies because in the academic world it would have been a humiliation to be proven wrong. Valyria was probably pretty cut throat in even (and especially) that circle.

Some books written by Maesters are at least not trying to be overly biased, as evidenced by that biography of Queen Visenya that Richard arranged to have bound for Dany, so we'll doubtlessly see use for copying libraries across Westeros, but there is definitely going to be a political objective behind a lot of their writings. Some were made for the honest goodness of spreading knowledge (or boasting of their deeds), but it depends on the person writing them if they'd let their inherent biases muddy the waters there.
I want the biased texts if only to say that we have them all. My greed is basically my only motivator for this.

For Valyrian texts, I'm very much hoping that the library of Oros had some major preservation mechanism, that someone there had the same foresight that Saenena did.
 
Ugh... sorry guys, fell asleep on the keyboard. Literally.

Tossing my vote out now, reasoning will be typed up later.

[X] Plan Something's Rotten
-[X] Look for the following, take the opportunities when they arise and reconsider your further steps before Dany is scheduled to enter the dreams of Agent A.
--[X] Eferil Irjen (Apostate Red Priest), to talk with him
--[X] Jarlar Sanel (Wine & Steel Leader), to confirm his presence
--[X] Nikeos Armatis (Lotus Trader), to confirm his presence
--[X] secret entrances, hidden rooms or any rooms that the servants want to bar you access to
--[X] Lady Bartaris, to talk with her in private
-[X] Tell Jeanna Forly to talk with Yanog Reft for the day. He seemed a decent sort and his presence should make sure that there are no repeats of the recent events. We will talk with her in the evening.
--[X] Before this though, let her show her room to you. Check everything, especially the raven, for magic. Also ask her if the will was already executed and if she received anything. Check her inheritance for magic too.

Our presence muddles the waters too much for Commune to be very effective, so we need a tad more intel to be able to ask the right questions. Once it's evening, we can Commune with what we got so far.
 
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--[X] secret entrances, hidden rooms or any rooms that the servants want to bar you access to
True seeing should help here, anything hidden by illusion pops.

[x] Azel

// Definitely reminds me of the story where the guests were invited, never got the host to see and then started dying one after the other ... and if I had a memory somewhere, I'd remember the book/film title.
 
Here comes my reasoning. We have only a few morsels of confirmed information and a whole lot of minor hints, so I'm going to keep a tally while rambling about this. But first, let's define the three competing theories and penalize those two that are less likely explanations.

1. This is a gathering of potentially pro-Viserys actors to hash out an agreement for a common goal. (What Jeanna was told is happening.) Points: 0
2. This gathering was arranged by another party for an unknown purpose. (As of yet unknown intrigue goal.) Points: -3
3. This is the setup for a magical ritual. (The way-out-there theory.) Points: -6

Let's first look at the composition of this gathering:
- We have Jarlar, who is politically influential and would stand to gain from our conquest of Lys if he aligned himself properly before that. Make that 1 point for Theory 1. However, this also means that he could have been invited as part of a anti-Viserys agenda, so it's also a point of Theory 2.
- Then there is Yango Reft, who we know little about, but he seems slightly inclined towards Viserys and might have some power behind the mask. Again, this could swing both ways, so 1 point for Theories 1 and 2.
- Then we got Nikeos Armatis, the lotus trader. He is vaguely aligned with the Spicers, which means he could be flipped to some other cause, but he isn't anyone that would fit in a pro-Viserys alliance. He is a brutal drug-kingpin and anyone knowing a bit about our rule would realize that once we take over Lys, we would round him up and make him spill his guts, first figuratively, then literally. He wouldn't be so powerful if he was an idiot, but that means he isn't dumb enough to not see that Viserys taking Lys would be the end for him, no matter what. Likewise, the organizer of this wouldn't have invited him for that very reason. So I'll award -1 point to Theory 1 and 1 points to Theory 2.
- Now it get's interesting, with Eferil Irjen, the rogue Red Priest. He isn't politically powerful and would be a distant second pick to the Flame Keeper of Lys if you wanted someone to represent the Reds in this. At the same time, he has some arcane interests, which sets him apart from the others on this list even more. He makes no sense if this was a pro-Viserys gathering, especially as we had widely known amicable contact with the Flame Keeper. So I'm giving this -1 for Theory 1 and 1 points each for Theory 2 and 3.
- Gorthor the Lecher, now that is an interesting character. Given his proclivities, he likely has quite a bit of power in the city in the form of blackmail material on other figures and he is the high priest of Trios in Lys. Again, it's not hard to guess that Viserys would consider the guy repulsive as fuck, but his connections would still make him valuable to invite and Gorthor himself would probably not notice that his behavior would be ill received. On the other hand, they didn't invite the Flame Keeper, so it's questionable why they wouldn't invite a lower ranking, but more acceptable priest in his stead if this was about the faith of Trios being represented. Overall, I'm inclined to give him points for both Theory 1 and 2.
- Now here comes the kicker. Jeanna Forly. She has no reason to be here, except as a mouthpiece for someone else maybe, yet she was on the original list of invitations. Why? She has neither power, connections or any useful talents like the suspected sorcerer, so why invite her? If the organizer of this wanted a mouthpiece, he could have invited someone with more value that was already aligned in the right direction. There is little obvious reason to pad the guest list with her. At the same time, her 'mission' is a farce that mostly seems meant to keep her busy. Agent A was in contact with Jarlar before this meeting, so after already directly approaching him, there is no reason for him to step back and try indirect methods next. Either Agent A has a large hand in all of this, or Jeanna was approached by someone else borrowing the identity of the suspected Westerosi agent. She makes no sense at all in a pro-Viserys gathering, so -2 points for Theory 1. At the same time though, she makes no sense as a guest under Theory 2 either, for she seems ill suited for any spy-work and her handler implied he had full shape-shifters at his disposal, so -1 points to that theory too. The only real explanation for her presence is some hidden property of her that makes her valuable for other purposes, thus making it more likely that she would be here, if this is a ritual setup. Weak evidence it might be, but evidence none the less, so 1 point to Theory 3.

Tally so far:
Theory 1: -1
Theory 2: 1
Theory 3: -4

So... by summing up all those little bits of evidence, it now seems more likely that there is something else going on then this being a pro-Viserys meeting.
Also, the way-out-there-theory is gaining some ground even before I got to the evidence about that.

Resuming this post in a bit, but throwing this out now so that people can start dissecting it if they want.
 
Inserted tally
Adhoc vote count started by Goldfish on Dec 14, 2018 at 4:56 AM, finished with 164 posts and 15 votes.

  • [X] Plan Something's Rotten
    -[X] Look for the following, take the opportunities when they arise and reconsider your further steps before Dany is scheduled to enter the dreams of Agent A.
    --[X] Eferil Irjen (Apostate Red Priest), to talk with him
    --[X] Jarlar Sanel (Wine & Steel Leader), to confirm his presence
    --[X] Nikeos Armatis (Lotus Trader), to confirm his presence
    --[X] secret entrances, hidden rooms or any rooms that the servants want to bar you access to
    --[X] Lady Bartaris, to talk with her in private
    -[X] Tell Jeanna Forly to talk with Yanog Reft for the day. He seemed a decent sort and his presence should make sure that there are no repeats of the recent events. We will talk with her in the evening.
    --[X] Before this though, let her show her room to you. Check everything, especially the raven, for magic.
    [X] Play along for now. You have three more days to meet and get the measure of the other guests and the mysterious host before your Westerosi foes make their move
    -[X] When she sends out the raven in three days, Windwalk after it.
    [X] Run down a list of your enemies using commune to see if you can find out who this is.
 
Now, let's look at what we saw on our visit so far:
- On our way to the manse, Viserys noted that the slaves bear no marks of whips, but neither of any illness. The first one would make some sense under the assumption that the Bartaris family treats them well, but no marks of sickness? That is exceedingly strange. This is a rural shithole and even good medical treatment on Planetos is unable to fight things like pox, measles and similar sicknesses. To say nothing about random injury sustained during fieldwork. The only thing we know that could achieve this is magical healing, yet the manse is devoid of any signs of magical protections or similar. The last time we saw a magical effect with a hue AoE like this, we found a imprisoned Celestial beneath the city in question. Make that 1 point towards Theory 3, as there is definitely magic afoot and we have prior evidence of such workings.
- The Lady Bartaris seems crazy, but when queried about her issue with the numbers, she spoke a line that sounded suspiciously like a prophecy. "Seven pieces lost and found, seven keys to open the way, seven swords gleaming by night, now the eighth unbidden comes." That is not the random ravings of a madwoman. It is likely that she rephrased something she had heard earlier and this line has preciously little to do with politics. Make that 2 points for the 3rd Theory.
- With the guests arriving at the 7th and Jeanna supposed to send a message at the 13th, the total stay of the implied 7 guests would be 7 day. Or more likely, 7 nights. Odd coincidence. One point to Theory 3.
- Likewise, we now know that the Solicitor was not seen after the first day and Jeanna tried and failed to find the Red Priest today. So the Solicitor was not seen after the 1st night and the Red Priest not since the second. Another odd coincidence. One point to Theory 3.
- We have still seen no indication that Lord Bartaris is actually dead, but each theory expains that equally well, so no points awarded.

So my final tally for now:
Theory 1: -1
Theory 2: 1
Theory 3: 0

So... this looks pretty even. Even the outlandish theory is within reach of the possible.

As for predictions:
Theory 1: No predictions. This theory is very weak and allows us no real prediction of future events.
Theory 2: Under this assumption, we should find the Red Priest and uncover some form of other plot that goes contrary to what Jeanna told us. The Lady Barkalis should yield no useful information when helped with a Hearts Ease and we should not find evidence for a 7th guest.
Theory 3: It is somewhat likely that we won't find the Red Priest and it is somewhat likely that another person will go missing by the next day. Strong evidence for this theory would be some person being called away by the servants for unknown reasons tonight. Lady Barkalis should yield useful information.

Hence my vote. We can't test Theory 1 properly, but we can test Theory 2 and 3. Furthermore, Theory 3, if true, imposes a opportunity cost as if my assumption that people go missing each night is correct, we would loose people by waiting. Hence my strong disinclination to do so.
 
With the guests arriving at the 7th and Jeanna supposed to send a message at the 13th, the total stay of the implied 7 guests would be 7 day. Or more likely, 7 nights. Odd coincidence. One point to Theory 3.
Jeanna should send a raven on the 13th, so there will be more days to the meeting, or her handlers wouldn't be able to replace her and talk to the others as, according to her, planned.

So like more than 7 days.
 
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