[X] Submit (20 Prestige transferred to KMT, -.2 Treasury, -4 Influence, -1 Authority, Revaunchists gravely weakened, personal action unavailable next turn)
Most likely the same in my opinion. Opinion isn't the only or even the greatest factor in international relations. I think the Khem are being so lenient not because they how much they like us, but because they are being wary of our Mass Levy and seeking a way to get what they want without having to risk fighting it.
They have already done this in this war.
A Khem that genuinely wants to screw us over (Opinion 1-2) would have attacked/blockaded us, back when we had 66 Prestige, a four-front war, and a mostly-intact Black Sheep.
A five-front war--with most of our troops committed to the Black Sheep--would've outright caused a collapse. It doesn't take military genius to suspect that.
This is a Khem who is mostly ambivalent about us (but saw that we were trying to make some amends). They don't want to actually screw us over--even now, they could have asked for much more; and back then, absolutely--but finally couldn't avoid action when our Prestige gain became inevitable.
But there are reasons (good ones) for taking actions that piss off Khem. They are the ones who picked us as a rival.
Also, in the longer term, we will really benefit if there is a Suez canal controlled by, well, us, or by a power that is such a close military ally it may as well be a province but that doesn't seem to be on the table anytime soon. And we will benefit from the ports of the Levant being friendly and connected to the trade routes across Txolla and Thunder Plateau.
International relations aren't about "who started it first" (
especially while the rivalry is mild enough not to have--yet--descended into enmity), but about keeping strategically important nations as happy as is possible. Treat them like they don't exist, and they break away and rival you when you go too far against their interests--but on the other hand, make continued considerations, and they'll be confident in your long-term goodwill and drop the rivalry. It's our choice, and we are choosing poorly.
By the time the Suez canal comes around, this disagreement will be literally ancient history.The Khem aren't going to become our ally "anytime soon", but we have around 500 years to make it happen.
And, I mean, what's the alternative. We conquer all the way to the not!Suez? Either that leaves us even more exposed, or we conquer the peninsula (which Aranfan's already warned us about).