Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
There are multiple demob actions gated behind each other btw. Skipping out on any of them... well historically speaking having a lot of veteran soldiers with neither skills nor prospects is a bad thing for states.
Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)
There are multiple demob actions gated behind each other btw. Skipping out on any of them... well historically speaking having a lot of veteran soldiers with neither skills nor prospects is a bad thing for states.
ExNihilo
SPACE!
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Right, makes sense.
On a similar note, plan makers, remember to save money for after the war. While it won't be as expensive, demob 1 is .5/t and I'm guessing each following will be either that or cheaper, that's still a ton of money.
This makes me feel not very good about our ability to demobilize then raise a City Levy(s) in its place.
i.e. it may be be Mass Levy or bust, with the 1624-1628 insolvency deadline (vaaaguely estimated).
i.e. it may be be Mass Levy or bust, with the 1624-1628 insolvency deadline (vaaaguely estimated).
We have the advantage in term of terrain, morale, equipment, and leadership. At least a few hundred thousand troops against a very enraged 670,000 men who are sick and tired of invaders.
So... what's with this sudden panic about the Khemetri backstabbing us? Did I miss a hidden ominous update?
(Seriously: back when we had Prestige 66, the Khem could've attacked us, and then we would've had a real five-front war with the Black Sheep barely conquered. So why now?)
Anyway, delaying our Prestige too long is no longer even an option, due to not being able to take out many more loans. So, unavoidably, within two turns at latest, we will be done with the Black Sheep, and we will be dealing with the Khem. One turn, due to the sparse available Treasury sources (and to provide a safety margin), is also acceptable; so, given the current player zeitgeist, I strongly suspect we'll be making peace then.
...
@Kiba: the question asks "if we demobilize" (aka we don't have 670,000 men)
In any case, recent hints suggest that demobilization may not be an option while still retaining a working levy (which we'll need against Khem's army of hundreds of thousands). So we will only last as long as our coffers (probably 1624-1628) against the Khem.
(Seriously: back when we had Prestige 66, the Khem could've attacked us, and then we would've had a real five-front war with the Black Sheep barely conquered. So why now?)
Anyway, delaying our Prestige too long is no longer even an option, due to not being able to take out many more loans. So, unavoidably, within two turns at latest, we will be done with the Black Sheep, and we will be dealing with the Khem. One turn, due to the sparse available Treasury sources (and to provide a safety margin), is also acceptable; so, given the current player zeitgeist, I strongly suspect we'll be making peace then.
...
@Kiba: the question asks "if we demobilize" (aka we don't have 670,000 men)
In any case, recent hints suggest that demobilization may not be an option while still retaining a working levy (which we'll need against Khem's army of hundreds of thousands). So we will only last as long as our coffers (probably 1624-1628) against the Khem.
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If we surpass Khem in prestige then they will have the choice of giving us King Of The Hill, allowing us to humiliate ourselves, or fighting us for it. Because KOTH gives pretty great benefits they'll never choose the former unless the latter two are untenable. Right now is the perfect time for them to attack us as we've lit the country on fire to handle the Mass Levy, and as they don't love us they won't have any hesitation about stabbing us when we're weak.
Basically there's no way they aren't going to do it.
The question is if they would rather have the element of surprise or the ability to get what they want without having to throw men into a meatgrinder. Honestly I question the amount of surprise that's obtainable in a pre-industrial world. Troop movements are obvious. On top of that we have a rather large number of troops and they have no idea how hard of a time we are having keeping them raised (we have already done one impossible thing just in raising them).
So I suspect that Khem will make the demand under threat of navel blockade without involving invasions of our lands. We don't have the ships needed to resist that, so basically the choice is accept the loss or fight and lose.
So long as Khem accepts not invading, and quite frankly our lands would be a nightmare of disgruntled populous to try to hold and too far away to begin with, making the demand is win/win. Ether we accept and Khem gets what they want with effectively a strongly worded letter or we lose and Khem has even more effectively demonstrated that they can bring us to heel anytime they want without having to rely on backstabbing.
I agree.
Ymaryn were never successfully invaded, and even if Khem underestimate the Khan, the million strong army is a strong argument.
I also suspect that a blockade and an ultimatum is a more probable first step than trying to move several hundred thousands troops to attack us.
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I wouldn't call it a panic, but I consider it a possibility that becomes increasingly likely the longer we wait as the Khem have more and more time to prepare and might decide to launch their attack before they have to if they are in a good enough position. It is what I would do in their position. That said, it isn't really a relevant factor in my decision making, I just brought it up originally because I felt it is enough of a possibility that we could at least consider it and not automatically assume that we can manipulate when the Khem will make their demands.
Rebel: We want to be able to elect our leaders forever, lands are allocated to the most people as possible, Scared Warding ASAP and we want the bwyll ration re-instituted!
Negotiator: OK!
Rebel: OK? What? Are you going to just accept?
Negotiator: Do I look like I am kidding to you?
Negotiator: OK!
Rebel: OK? What? Are you going to just accept?
Negotiator: Do I look like I am kidding to you?
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ExNihilo
SPACE!
- Location
- USA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Ymarim Geostrategy is beyond your understanding.
Also we were gonna re-instate Bwyll Ration and Sacred Warding ASAP anyway, that's hardly a sacrifice on our part.
Hmm. Yeah, I forgot the warding.
One thing we need to be doing with the loan money before either of the wars end and Khem comes calling is build more warships in Ylthon/Saffron and Hamurri gulf. They should help with logistics in the campaigns and they might have a deterrent effect on overt hostilities by the Khem. Even if they're not enough to have a good chance of beating them, they raise the cost of action which in turn motivates them to push for more reasonable concessions (that still get them KotH secured) with less risk that we'll call them on their ultimatum. They don't know that we don't believe we can afford to fight.
That said, there's only so much value in trying to influence a rational analysis on their part regarding what is fundamentally an irrational reason for conflict. Attacking a neighbour that has committed no hostile act and offered no insult because they're looking stronger than you are is fucking nuts.
On the gripping hand, how much stronger at sea are they really? When they (previous regime) helped us with Trelli their price was that we'd pull our weight in east Saffron Sea anti-piracy. Since then they've fought a vicious civil war and wars with both Abyss and Berba which all eat up wealth. They made a shed load of money off the Kus famine and would have massively increased their Monsoon Sea merchant fleet (we probably did too) and the warships to protect it (which we didn't) and they have much more east facing coast with the shipbuilding capacity to go with it than us. They have relatively little forest land but they have the money and transport capacity to buy lumber - especially in the east once the famine was over - they may even have taken payment partially in the form of warships. We are at Poor in the Monsoon Sea (which is better than I'd have guessed) and I guess they completely dominate us there. They can blockade the the straits in Hamurri and set up a picket further east to send foreign merchant vessels trading up the not!Red Sea instead (at a point where it doesn't cost those merchants too much extra distance) and keep those stations supplied.
The west is a different story. We have been building warships in the Ylthon and capturing more and we have the capacity to build more there and they haven't had the same incentives to build up on the Saffron (though they will have somewhat, plenty of rivals on that sea). If they try to blockade Trelli the other powers they piss off are much closer than Kus and if they try to bottle up our fleet the straits are narrow enough we can do land based fire support. I think we can get to a point where we can win naval engagements in the west with a bit of luck which opens up their core territory to counterstrikes.
Magyar is probably the only power capable of telling the Khem to knock it off in the Monsoon sea but the Saffron is small enough that anyone with a navy could be a significant ally.
That said, there's only so much value in trying to influence a rational analysis on their part regarding what is fundamentally an irrational reason for conflict. Attacking a neighbour that has committed no hostile act and offered no insult because they're looking stronger than you are is fucking nuts.
On the gripping hand, how much stronger at sea are they really? When they (previous regime) helped us with Trelli their price was that we'd pull our weight in east Saffron Sea anti-piracy. Since then they've fought a vicious civil war and wars with both Abyss and Berba which all eat up wealth. They made a shed load of money off the Kus famine and would have massively increased their Monsoon Sea merchant fleet (we probably did too) and the warships to protect it (which we didn't) and they have much more east facing coast with the shipbuilding capacity to go with it than us. They have relatively little forest land but they have the money and transport capacity to buy lumber - especially in the east once the famine was over - they may even have taken payment partially in the form of warships. We are at Poor in the Monsoon Sea (which is better than I'd have guessed) and I guess they completely dominate us there. They can blockade the the straits in Hamurri and set up a picket further east to send foreign merchant vessels trading up the not!Red Sea instead (at a point where it doesn't cost those merchants too much extra distance) and keep those stations supplied.
The west is a different story. We have been building warships in the Ylthon and capturing more and we have the capacity to build more there and they haven't had the same incentives to build up on the Saffron (though they will have somewhat, plenty of rivals on that sea). If they try to blockade Trelli the other powers they piss off are much closer than Kus and if they try to bottle up our fleet the straits are narrow enough we can do land based fire support. I think we can get to a point where we can win naval engagements in the west with a bit of luck which opens up their core territory to counterstrikes.
Magyar is probably the only power capable of telling the Khem to knock it off in the Monsoon sea but the Saffron is small enough that anyone with a navy could be a significant ally.
There's a lot of things we could do with the loan money. Frankly, the Kingdom's finance is in shamble and we have a lot of demobilization to do. We also want that wagonway and signal tower to connect to the Thunder Plateau.
And you want us to build ships?
It's important...but yike!
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One megapeoject and a ship construction every 4 turns is fundable by guild industry so long as we are not income negative. Mix with some modest arms sales and we can build ships at a reasonable pace so long as we avoid costly navel wars.
The treasury cost is bad enough but the action cost is the real killer. We need to get the ship building ministry to the point where we can say "your building budget for this period for each sea is x,y,z" and they get on with it.
BUT the cost of a war with Khem is definitely more and the cost of sucking up to Khem enough to prevent a war might be more. A naval buildup should reduce the chance of the former and the price of the latter.
Formal alliances with Vynta and Magyar might do the same cheaper but could end up with us drawn into their wars.
Haven't you heard? It is the worst system (except for all the others).
Hrrrrm. I mean, we can't be entirely sure of how things look given the very different climate and geography of this world's middle east (there's a direct river link between what in our world is Georgia and Kuwait and all the trees in the Ymaryn empire is going to have changed the climate across Eurasia and North Africa), but if we go off of how things were in our history at this same time, Khem is likely getting most of its lumber from its vassals in the Levant, which will make maintaining naval power in the Saffron Sea relatively cheap and maintaining naval power in the Monsoon Sea relatively expensive.
But Khem may be importing timber to its Monsoon Sea coast from Abys, Kus or even the Ymaryn empire. Or their own coasts may be more forested due to the changes on Ymaryn territory.
So basically, I don't think we have enough information to be able to say where Khem will be stronger or weaker.
fasquardon
Thing is, it doesn't matter that it's obvious. If we're still in BS when they're coming then the BS will never surrender and allow us to reorient our army because we'll be fucked and everyone will know it. That's why we need to get what we came for and get the fuck out.
Do I think that Khem is guaranteed to invade us immediately? No, we haven't hit the prestige point yet. Do I think they will invade if we're still bogged down and we hit the point? Yes, because it would be a literally once in history chance to destroy their only serious rival and Khem isn't full of fool's. Any plan that even subconsciously includes the phrase "and everything goes perfectly or we die" should take a few second thoughts, and delaying finishing off the BS while taking loans we can't afford so that we can try and finish WW at the same time does exactly that.
If we knock out the BS then we're basically out of the woods. Our economy will still be on fire and we'll have to see what bullshit Khem will hit us with, but whatever happens it probably won't be an existential threat.
Interrupt: Make Way For The King
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
Namar, Successor to the Prophet, High Priest of the Samynish Faith, King of the Land of Black Earth, sees that his inferiors are getting ideas above their station. However, in accordance with the teachings of the Prophet, Namar is a merciful and benevolent king! His wrath may be stayed with a gesture of submission from Melek Balthazar and a token tribute.
[] Submit (20 Prestige transferred to KMT, -.2 Treasury, -4 Influence, -1 Authority, Revaunchists gravely weakened, personal action unavailable next turn)
[] Defy (Great Power War)
Do not forget the lessons of the collapse.
Two Hour Moratorium
[] Submit (20 Prestige transferred to KMT, -.2 Treasury, -4 Influence, -1 Authority, Revaunchists gravely weakened, personal action unavailable next turn)
[] Defy (Great Power War)
Do not forget the lessons of the collapse.
Two Hour Moratorium
always_confused
Perpetually unwanted
- Location
- SEA
And so it begins then. The great question of our time.
So, can we afford it?
Authority grates extremely, but we have two at least.
-4 Influence, ok, this is brutal, but we do have 5 free, I think?
20 Prestige - eh.
Interestingly the tribute is indeed token: -.2 Treasury .
Loss of Influence and Authoriy is what is hurting.
So in the end we would have 1 Authority and 1 influence free.
Can we manage?
Authority grates extremely, but we have two at least.
-4 Influence, ok, this is brutal, but we do have 5 free, I think?
20 Prestige - eh.
Interestingly the tribute is indeed token: -.2 Treasury .
Loss of Influence and Authoriy is what is hurting.
So in the end we would have 1 Authority and 1 influence free.
Can we manage?
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- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Hmm. Not asking for any Income and that Treasury is easily affordable. The Influence is painful, but some good war rolls should get it back. It is the Authority that really hurts, but we'll get it back when our current king dies and he is either in his late fifties or early sixties.
This would leave us with 1 Authority and 1 Influence to work with next turn. Deeply unpleasant, but honestly? We have literally survived worse.
This would leave us with 1 Authority and 1 Influence to work with next turn. Deeply unpleasant, but honestly? We have literally survived worse.
We survived worse for multiple turns during the Collapse.