Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

[Pyro Hawk]

On the whole 'new Banner Company' topic, what's the current state of gun development? I'm pretty sure we're not at good muskets of any kind yet. But are we actually at muskets at all? Just wondering because once rifles get developed, I really, really want to make a Banner Company using them. Sure, they won't be particularly useful in the line of battle or during sieges. But to get a professional unit of skirmishers using rifles early on? That is going to be rather hazardous to anyone that can't get up close with our army as soon as we discover there's a hostile unit in the area.

Also:
[X] Plan Oshha

 

[Oshha]

On the whole 'new Banner Company' topic, what's the current state of gun development? I'm pretty sure we're not at good muskets of any kind yet. But are we actually at muskets at all? Just wondering because once rifles get developed, I really, really want to make a Banner Company using them. Sure, they won't be particularly useful in the line of battle or during sieges. But to get a professional unit of skirmishers using rifles early on? That is going to be rather hazardous to anyone that can't get up close with our army as soon as we discover there's a hostile unit in the area.

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Very basic. We got bombards and that is about it. Actual guns are very primitive and not practical for being used with artillery only being good enough for armies to use. Our tech level is about 12th Century for the most part through some areas are more advanced while others are less advanced due to differences in tech progression. If we go by how things went in RL, muskets and rifles are still centuries away.

The tech isn't quite there yet, sadly. Missile Merc Company is going to be either bows or crossbow, not gunpowder.

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Gunpowder Weaponry is still very primitive rn.

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[KlinkerKing]

[X] Plan Oshha

Boats for the Boat God!

 

[Aranfan]

Vote Closed. My energy has dried up, so no promises on how quickly the turn will come out. Sorry for being such a flake.

Adhoc vote count started by Aranfan on Apr 3, 2021 at 7:25 AM, finished with 75 posts and 12 votes.

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  12 people have voted

  [X] Plan Oshha
  -[X] Authority: Touch the Cow, Do it Now, Greenshore: Greenshore's people have been stripped of the Sacred Warding when the nomads of the Khan's Horde stole the Sacred Herds. They have returned to the kingdom in large part to regain the Warding. This must be done to protect them once more from the starpox. (60%. 3 Years. Sacred Warding restored in Greenshore.)
  -[X] Influence: Against Cholera, Abyss: The people of Abyss lack a treatment for the cholera. Demonstrate your might and generosity by giving your to them. (85%. 1 Year. Possible +Abyss Opinion)
  -[X] Influence: Sell Bombards, Germanum Minors: Do the minors of the Rex Germanum want bombards? (75%. 1 Year. Probable Profit.)
  -[X] Influence: Construct Warships, Salt Sea: You now share a sea with the Black Sheep. They will surely send foes by sea as well as land if they wish to achieve their ambition of displacing you. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
  -[X] Influence & Influence: Investigate Assassination Attempt: Someone tried to kill the king with gunpowder. Find out who, and find out why. (???%, 1 Year, +Information.)
  -[X] Influence: Peace Talks, Styrmyr: You have achieved your war goals, attempt to negotiate peace with the styrmyr. (Narrative%. 1 Year. Peace.)
  -[X] Personal: Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
  --[X] Peace Talks, Styrmyr

  • Oshha
  • Chimeraguard
  • tenchifew
  • Fouredged Sword
  • LilyWitch
  • fasquardon
  • ActuallyPotato
  • HanEmpire
  • Sivantic
  • Malevolo
  • Pyro Hawk
  • KlinkerKing

 

[Aranfan]

Investigate Assassination Attempt
Needed: 11+. Rolled: 7+70=77. Success.

It rapidly becomes clear that this was not an isolated incident, but part of a larger conspiracy. On the same day as the attempt on Balthazar, another bomb exploded in Trelli's Governor's Palace. Idari is severely injured, and it is currently unclear if he will survive or not.

Still, the Shadow King's agents manage to find out that the gunpowder was smuggled from the Fireworks Guild's production bit by bit over the last several years, and they found out who did it. They caught him in the middle of the Yllython on a boat heading to Western Wall. On its own that could just be an attempt to frame Western Wall, so the Shadow King counsels patience. The one who orchestrated the bombing in Trelli was also captured, as they headed towards Hellas on foot.

Over the next few months, the Shadow King's interrogators gradually get the conspirators to talk. This was a years long plot by Western Wall to decapitate the Core's government. Every time the Melek and the Heir died at the same time it has meant great instability for the kingdom. Western Wall believed, probably accurately, that such instability would likely be fatal in the wake of still not having recovered from the Great Khan.

Now that you know it was Western Wall, the question becomes what to do about it. The Shadow King notes that telling the truth about what happened may not be in the best interests of the Kingdom, as she lays out the various options.


[] Blame Western Wall. (Revanchists strengthened. Large prestige and influence loss if casus belli against Western Wall is not pursued.)

[] Blame the Black Sheep. (Revanchists strengthened. Large prestige and influence loss if casus belli against Black Sheep is not pursued.)

[] Blame Revanchists. (Revanchists weakened. Definite large influence loss, probable moderate prestige loss.)

[] Blame Hellas. (Large prestige and influence loss if casus belli against Hellas League is not pursued.)

[] Blame Nobody, the culprits are a mystery. (Moderate prestige and influence loss.)

(I went outside and it was a beautiful day and I was filled with energy. I dunno what is up with me. Also, be aware that this choice will set precedents.)

2 hour moratorium.

 

[Chimeraguard]

Oh boy. And of course, telling the truth would strengthen the Revanchists, the exact opposite of what we want.

Oh yeah, and completely screw up our timetable with regards to retaking Thunder Plateau.

 

[ScreenWatcher]

[] Blame Western Wall. (Revanchists strengthened. Large prestige and influence loss if casus belli against Western Wall is not pursued.)

 

[Mors]

Oh boy. And of course, telling the truth would strengthen the Revanchistz, the exact opposite of what we want.

Oh yeah, and completely screw up our timetable with regards to retaking Thunder Plateau.

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Thing is, if people at the Wall are actually shits like this who will stoop to assassination to weaken the Ymaryn... why not let loose the dogs of war?

Revanchism is often looked down upon as a destabilizing element, but with some massaging it can be a powerful unifying element as well.

 

[taovkool]

Thing is, if people at the Wall are actually shits like this who will stoop to assassination to weaken the Ymaryn... why not let loose the dogs of war?

Revanchism is often looked down upon as a destabilizing element, but with some massaging it can be a powerful unifying element as well.

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Question is, are we ready for war though? If yes, we can blame Western Wall. If no, we can just blame nobody. The hit in prestige and influence is going to be a pain in the ass, but we can live with it for a while.

 

[ActuallyPotato]

Yeah this kinda caught us in a bad position. iirc most of our military is still in Styrmyr right now.

 

[Kiba]

This is a tough decision. Waiting to see what arguments are there. I am inclined to pursue the WW, but this may significantly delay the invasion of the Black Sheep and cause us to lose the quest.

 

[Just Some Guy]

Well it seems that we have to take down western wall now, I wonder how much force they can call upon when we declare war on them.

Side note where did we get the +70 in the investigation?

 

[Kiba]

Do we need to pursue the war while we're still fighting the Stymyr?

 

[tenchifew]

[] Blame Western Wall. (Revanchists strengthened. Large prestige and influence loss if casus belli against Western Wall is not pursued.)

Honestly?
Fuck them.
They did not resist the Khan - this, I can understand, even if they were supposed to be the wall against the steppes, it is literally in their name.
They did not support us in the aftermath. Ok, most provinces did not.
They lied to the Amber Road, at a time where we really could have helped each other.
Them making aggressive noises afterwards... well...
And now outright assassination attempts that should have led to another collapse, like the one that killed untold amounts of Ymaryn?!

I am usually rather logical and calm person, but fuck them. I want blood now.

edit:
I also do not want for assasinations to become a viable tactic - and the only way I see how to do it is to come down as a pile of bricks on people actually responsible.

 

[Malevolo]

[] Blame Western Wall. (Revanchists strengthened. Large prestige and influence loss if casus belli against Western Wall is not pursued.)

Honestly?
Fuck them.
They did not resist the Khan - this, I can understand, even if they were supposed to be the wall against the steppes, it is literally in their name.
They did not support us in the aftermath. Ok, most provinces did not.
They lied to the Amber Road, at a time where we really could have helped each other.
Them making aggressive noises afterwards... well...
And now outright assassination attempts that should have led to another collapse, like the one that killed untold amounts of Ymaryn?!

I am usually rather logical and calm person, but fuck them. I want blood now.

edit:
I also do not want for assasinations to become a viable tactic - and the only way I see how to do it is to come down as a pile of bricks on persons actually responsible.

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I'm with you here.

It's Fey Mood time.

 

[Oshha]

We cannot blame Western Wall when we need to start a five year plus campaign against the Black Sheep next year or the year after. And we have to start that campaign if we want to be able to hold Thunder Plateau long term and we need to hold Thunder Plateau long term if we want to avoid a Ymaryn death spiral like Western Wall wants us to suffer.

It isn't honest, but as the Shadow King says, honesty isn't in the best interest of the Ymaryn. We won't be able to go to war with Hellas or Western Wall anytime soon since we will need to send everything against the Black Sheep and the QM has stated that war will take a minimum of five years to win if we win at all.

We already have to go war with the Black Sheep in the next couple of ears and we have already prepared to do so. We can afford to blame them since we are going to war with them anyway. Alternatively, we weaken the revanchists at the expense of prestige (which we only need to worry about due to the revanchists) or we pretend we don't know.

We have not yet recovered enough that we can afford to make this decision with our anger and outrage and not logic and reason.

@Aranfan How soon would we be expected to go to war if we blame Black Sheep or Hellas or Western Wall?

 

[tenchifew]

We cannot blame Western Wall when we need to start a five year plus campaign against the Black Sheep next year or the year after. And we have to start that campaign if we want to be able to hold Thunder Plateau long term and we need to hold Thunder Plateau long term if we want to avoid a Ymaryn death spiral like Western Wall wants us to suffer.

It isn't honest, but as the Shadow King says, honesty isn't in the best interest of the Ymaryn. We won't be able to go to war with Hellas or Western Wall anytime soon since we will need to send everything against the Black Sheep and the QM has stated that war will take a minimum of five years to win if we win at all.

We already have to go war with the Black Sheep in the next couple of ears and we have already prepared to do so. We can afford to blame them since we are going to war with them anyway. Alternatively, we weaken the revanchists at the expense of prestige (which we only need to worry about due to the revanchists) or we pretend we don't know.

We have not yet recovered enough that we can afford to make this decision with our anger and outrage and not logic and reason.

@Aranfan How soon would we be expected to go to war if we blame Black Sheep or Hellas or Western Wall?

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And why do we have to go to war with the Black Sheep?
Revanchists want United Ymaryn and old borders - but our fire is warm.
We had most of our provinces added through diplomacy, and I actually can see a possibility for a peaceful inclusion of Black Sheep down the line fulfilling their demands.

On the other hand, I can also easily see Western Wall striking us in the back were we to attack Black Sheep now.

 

[Oshha]

And why do we have to go to war with the Black Sheep?
Revanchists want United Ymaryn and old borders - but our fire is warm.
We had most of our provinces added through diplomacy, and I actually can see a possibility for a peaceful inclusion of Black Sheep down the line.

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The QM has stated that Thunder Plateau will stop considering themselves to be Ymaryn in the early 1620s and we won't be able to hold Thunder Plateau without that shared cultural identity. They have also stated that any campaign against the Black Sheep to liberate Thunder Plateau will take five years even if things go perfectly for us. We also have to take and hold Thunder Plateau to avoid a revanchist-induced death spiral and in the last vote, the QM stated that we cannot just remove Thunder Plateau from Ymaryn revanchism.

And while it might be possible to diplo-annex Black Sheep down the line, we won't have that time because the revanchist-induced death spiral will kill us before then. It has been repeatedly stated by the QM throughout the thread that we have to retake Thunder Plateau due to picking revanchism early in the thread and we cannot get out of doing that. While I personally didn't vote for it (and neither did you), we had our bed made when the thread voted for revanchism and now we have to deal with that. Which means conquering Thunder Plateau from the Black Sheep before the 1620s to avoid a revanchist-induced death spiral.

Side note where did we get the +70 in the investigation?

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We put two Influence on the action so we rolled 2d100 for it rather than just 1d100 like we would have with just one Influence.

 

[tenchifew]

The QM has stated that Thunder Plateau will stop considering themselves to be Ymaryn in the early 1620s and we won't be able to hold Thunder Plateau without that shared cultural identity. They have also stated that any campaign against the Black Sheep to liberate Thunder Plateau will take five years even if things go perfectly for us. We also have to take and hold Thunder Plateau to avoid a revanchist-induced death spiral and in the last vote, the QM stated that we cannot just remove Thunder Plateau from Ymaryn revanchism.

And while it might be possible to diplo-annex Black Sheep down the line, we won't have that time because the revanchist-induced death spiral will kill us before then. It has been repeatedly stated by the QM throughout the thread that we have to retake Thunder Plateau due to picking revanchism early in the thread and we cannot get out of doing that. While I personally didn't vote for it, we had our bed made when the thread voted for revanchism and now we have to deal with that. Which means conquering Thunder Plateau from the Black Sheep before the 1620s to avoid a revanchist-induced death spiral.



We put two Influence on the action so we rolled 2d100 for it rather than just 1d100 like we would have with just one Influence.

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And now is 1610, I think? So we should have about 12 to 15 turns still.
And I really do think that attacking Black Sheep first would only lead to Western Wall striking us in the back.
On the other hand striking WW with everything now and then redirecting the forces to strike at Black Sheep should work.

Edit:
Besides, this, from Civ sheet:
Debilitating Belief: Revaunchism. Every turn you are not trying to restore the borders of the Old Kingdom, by diplomatic or martial means, you lose 1 influence. If you have 0 influence, you lose one authority and gain two influence instead.

Diplomatic means should count towards placating revanchism, actually.

 

[Oshha]

And now is 1610, I think? So we should have about 15 turns still.
And I really do think that attacking Black Sheep first would only lead to Western Wall striking us in the back.
On the other hand striking WW with everything now and then redirecting the forces to strike at Black Sheep should work.

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We just had 1610 so nine turns before the QM stated we are at risk of being unable to take Thunder Plateau and taking it will take a minimum of five years.

We cannot afford to take on Western Wall before going after Black Sheep. If we could, we would be. In fact, there was the original plan before the QM revealed information on the time limit to take Thunder Plateau, how long it would take and how strong Western Wall will take. The easy conquests were Tinshore and Greenshore. Black Sheep and Western Wall are tough nuts to crack that will take multiple years to conquer due to being powerful opponents even if they aren't as strong as us. Black Sheep are nomads while Western Wall can raise City Levies of its own even if it can't go as far as a Mass Levy like we can.

There will be no quick and easy victory against Western Wall and even if there was, our revanchists wouldn't allow it. They would make us eat penalties for stopping at weakening Western Wall while we take on the Black Sheep and not going all the way of conquering all of Western Wall.

I want to take out Western Wall before moving on Black Sheep, but the time limits means that we can't afford to. We might have been able to pull it off if we had gone for Western Wall instead of Styrmyr, but we did go for Styrmyr so we have to go for Black Sheep next to avoid revanchism creating a death spiral.

Edit: The original plan was to go after Tinshore, Greenshore, Western Wall and Black Sheep in that order due to how hard they would be to take, but some point between TInshore and Greenshore or about then, we found out about the timelimit on retaking Thunder Plateau. After questioning the QM about stuff, which is how we know about taking at least five years and putting down the deadline to the early 1620s rather than something more vague, the plan changed to going after Greenshore first, then Black Sheep and finally Western Wall. I'll be the first to admit it isn't ideal, but it is the reality of the situation.

 

[Aranfan]

You can go to war with Western Wall and the Black Sheep at the same time. I am sure you'll manage such a thing just fine, it's not like two front wars have ever ended badly for anyone.

@Aranfan How soon would we be expected to go to war if we blame Black Sheep or Hellas or Western Wall?

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A year or two to build up strength after defeating the Styrmyr would be fine, longer than that, probably not.

 

[tenchifew]

We just had 1610 so nine turns before the QM stated we are at risk of being unable to take Thunder Plateau and taking it will take a minimum of five years.

We cannot afford to take on Western Wall before going after Black Sheep. If we could, we would be. In fact, there was the original plan before the QM revealed information on the time limit to take Thunder Plateau, how long it would take and how strong Western Wall will take. The easy conquests were Tinshore and Greenshore. Black Sheep and Western Wall are tough nuts to crack that will take multiple years to conquer due to being powerful opponents even if they aren't as strong as us. Black Sheep are nomads while Western Wall can raise City Levies of its own even if it can't go as far as a Mass Levy like we can.

There will be no quick and easy victory against Western Wall and even if there was, our revanchists wouldn't allow it. They would make us eat penalties for stopping at weakening Western Wall while we take on the Black Sheep and not going all the way of conquering all of Western Wall.

I want to take out Western Wall before moving on Black Sheep, but the time limits means that we can't afford to. We might have been able to pull it off if we had gone for Western Wall instead of Styrmyr, but we did go for Styrmyr so we have to go for Black Sheep next to avoid revanchism creating a death spiral.

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And I do not see Western Wall allowing us the time to take care of Black Sheep first.
On the other hand I can see Black Sheep believing that we would accept new borders and leave them alone.
In my opinion attacking Black Sheep now would guarantee a two front war, with WW attacking.

Edit:
"Early 1620's should be 1622 at worst - so we should at least have 12 turns, maybe 14, not 9.

 

[Oshha]

@Aranfan Since I just noticed that Tenchifew wasn't around for when you previously stated this information back before the hiatus, can you confirm the current time limit to take Thunder Plateau before it stops considering itself Ymaryn, whether or not we can hold Thunder Plateau if it stops considering itself Ymaryn and how many years it will take to conquer Thunder Plateau at the minimum. Also how the Ymaryn refuse to do proper diplomacy with their breakway states due to their current revanchism-based temper tantrum.

It would be easier than me looking through a thread with thousands of posts for your old and possible outdated statements that you have made on the subject.

 

[Fouredged Sword]

We CAN just blame the WW and eat the influence loss of not using the CB. It's not a great option, but none of the options are great.

 

[Oshha]

We CAN just blame the WW and eat the influence loss of not using the CB. It's not a great option, but none of the options are great.

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For the record, I consider this to be completely true. We can blame Western Wall and take the prestige and influence loss from not going to war, but what we cannot afford to do is go to war with them.

Besides, this, from Civ sheet:
Debilitating Belief: Revaunchism. Every turn you are not trying to restore the borders of the Old Kingdom, by diplomatic or martial means, you lose 1 influence. If you have 0 influence, you lose one authority and gain two influence instead.

Diplomatic means should count towards placating revanchism, actually.

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Unfortunately, Elitism combined with revanchism means that we cannot engage in diplomacy with our successor states beyond demanding that they return the rightful Ymaryn land in under their control to us. Note the 'Ree' in regards to Stymyr and Black Sheep and how Western Wall isn't listed as a foreign power due to the Ymaryn refusing to recognise them. Tinshore and Greenshore were in the same position as Western Wall while they still had their independence. Furthermore, our actions to weaken the revanchists have also antagonist them that they far less willing to accept anything than direct military action to further their cause. Our current diplomatic actions and military preparation actions only have an unweighted dice roll to appease them now when before it was a weighted roll.

And I do not see Western Wall allowing us the time to take care of Black Sheep first.
On the other hand I can see Black Sheep believing that we would accept new borders and leave them alone.
In my opinion attacking Black Sheep now would guarantee a two front war, with WW attacking.

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It is a risk, but one we have to take unfortunately. It isn't ideal and isn't my first choice, but we do have to take Black Sheep as soon as possible now, especially since we have already left it as late as we can safely afford. With Western Wall attacking us while we are distracted, they have left us alone both times that Black Sheep attacked us, both times when Hellas attacked us and when we invaded the Styrmyr. If it is a big enough concern, we could try leaving the regular army or our banner companies behind as a safeguard against Western Wall while the other goes to war with our Mass Levy.