Turn 17 (1610 Andyidh Dyadorn)
Turn 17 (1610 Andyidh Dyadorn)


Valleyhome is rocked by an explosion early in the year. At first thought to be a mishap in the Royal Armory, it quickly comes out that someone tried to assassinate Melek Balthazar with a black powder bomb. While the King thankfully lives, despite minor injuries, the city is in an uproar.

(+2 Stress, -1 Influence, +1 Influence)


Total Dice: 7 Influence, 2 Authority
Committed: 1 Influence, 1 Authority
Available Dice: 6 Influence, 1 Authority


Martial:

[] War Mission: Send the army to fight enemies. Can only be taken once per turn for any given enemy. (95%. 1 Year. Success and length of campaign rolled separately. Possible influence gains or losses depending on the result.)
-Write in Targets, one per influence

[] City Levy: Gather up some of the excess population in the cities and throw them at an enemy. Can only be taken once per turn for any given enemy. (90%. 1 Year. Expensive. Success and length of campaign rolled separately. Possible influence gains or losses depending on the result.)
-Write in Targets, one per influence

[] Activate The Mass Levy!: Arm and mobilize up to a million soldiers. The earth quakes at your approach. None can stand against the might of The People. (85%. 1 year. Success and length of campaign rolled separately. Possible influence gains or losses depending on result. Unsustainably expensive)
-Write in Targets, may choose as many as you like

[] Construct Warships, Redshore: With unified control of the Yllython shattered, there are going to be pirates and rebels in the sea closest to the core. The people need to build warships to suppress pirates and fight enemies. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)

[] Construct Warships, New Blackmouth: The shipyards of New Blackmouth are once more ready and operational. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)

[] Construct Warships, Trelli: You once more have Trelli. Its dockyards and shipyards are robust and capable. With those facilities you can build even more warships. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)

[] Construct Warships, Salt Sea: You now share a sea with the Black Sheep. They will surely send foes by sea as well as land if they wish to achieve their ambition of displacing you. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)

[] Construct Warships, Harmurri Gulf: Do you really need warships on the Monsoon Sea? The trade there is quite civilized with much less piracy than on the Saffron Sea. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)

[] Found Banner Company: The storied mercenary companies of the Melkut Ymaryn were ancient institutions, that played important roles in both martial and diplomatic matters. Having a banner company at your beck and call, able to be loaned out to allies or against enemies, it is a powerful tool. An expensive one though. (100%. 3 Years. Expensive, -.5 Income, potentially profitable, may be taken more than once)



Diplomacy:

[] Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige and probable -influence)
-Write in who to seek loan from, requires at least 5/10 opinion, may be taken more than once

[] Honor of Elites, Western Wall: Demand the rebels surrender and swear fealty once again to their rightful lord! (Narrative%. 1 year, +Influence, Casus Belli if failed)

[] Rage Against The Steppes!: Demand the Black Sheep savages surrender and abandon their oppression of the people of the Thunder Plateau. (Narrative%. 1 year. +Influence)

[] Diplomatic Contact, Highlanders: What have the Highlanders gotten up to in these last thousand years? Do you even care so long as they stay in their hills? (???% 1 Year. Possible -Influence)

[] Diplomatic Contact, Hellas: Who are the Hellas and what do they want? Besides Trelli. (???%. 1 Year.)

[] Sell Bombards, Norsca: Does Norsca want Bombards? (75%, 1 Year, Profitable, Probable -Amber Road Opinion)

[] Sell Bombards, Berba: Does Berba want Bombards? (75%, 1 Year, Profitable, Possible -KMT Opinion)

[] Sell Bombards, Vynta: Vynta has just gotten into a war. Do they want more bombards? (30%. 1 Year. Profitable.)

[] Sell Bombards, Kus Minors: Do any of the minor powers of Kus want bombards? (75%, 1 Year, Probable Profit)

[] Sell Bombards, Ealam: Does Ealam want bombards? (75%. 1 Year. Profitable. Possible -Kurna opinion)

Sell Bombards, Behryvar: Does Behryvar want bombards? (75%. 1 Year. Profitable.)

[] Sell Bombards, Hasun: Do the Hasun want bombards? (75%. 1 Year. Profitable. Probable -Amber Road Opinion)

[] Sell Bombards, Germanum Minors: Do the minors of the Rex Germanum want bombards? (75%. 1 Year. Probable Profit.)

[] Sell Bombards, Rex Germanum: Does the Rex of the Doych want bombards? (75%, 1 year, Profitable?, possible -Pamplona Opinion)

[] Sell Bombards, North Saffron Minors: Do the minors of north saffron want bombards? (75%. 1 Year. Probable Profit. Possible -Pamplona Opinion, possible -Rex Germanum opinion)

[] Negotiate Trade Deal: In the cutthroat world of commerce it is said that for one to benefit another must lose. Even so, it might be worthwhile to formalize trade deals with various powers. (85%. 1 Year. +.1 Income and -1 Opinion if Prestige > Target or -.1 Income and +1 Opinion if Prestige < Target, may be taken multiple times with different targets, possible opinion effects on third parties)
-Write in target
--Khem on Cooldown until 1618

Establish Trade Enclaves, Hung: The Central Empire is extremely rich with vast markets for your goods. They are notorious for being quite strict with their trading partners, who they refer to as "tributaries". However, you are the only other state they consider civilized. It should be possible to negotiate with them much more even trade deals, as well as dedicated trading enclaves to facilitate trade on the model of the many enclaves among Saffron and Monsoon powers. (75%. 5 Years. +[3d6h2]*0.1 Income) in progress

[] Peace Talks, Styrmyr: You have achieved your war goals, attempt to negotiate peace with the styrmyr. (Narrative%. 1 Year. Peace.)


Admin:

[] Math Reform: The Kus have made advances in the notation of mathematics beyond the wildest dreams of the people. Not to mention the substance of math. "Zero"… it will change everything once people get a handle on it. If you were to institute reforms that changed the Melkut Ymaryn to the superior Kus system of math, then there would be immense savings simply from more precise ability to keep track of things. Of course, until the bureaucracy got a hang of the new numbers, it would be pure chaos. (16%. 5 Years. Extremely Expensive, -1 Authority immediately, +1 Income)

[] Survey Hathytta Province: Hathytta has long been the center of your mining industries. Many enterprising citizens will even try to survey and find valuable resources on their own initiative. Still, the land is rich and another survey can do no harm. (???%. 1 Year. Resources?)

[] Survey Txolla Province: Txolla has been surveyed many times, but technology and the skill of surveyors is always improving. It might be possible to find something of use on the floodplains. (???%. 1 Year. Resources?)

[] Survey Tinshore Province: Tinshore has been surveyed many times, but technology and the skill of surveyors is always improving. It might be possible to find something of use there. (???%. 1 Year. Resources?)

[] Survey Core: The Core has been surveyed many times, but technology and the skill of surveyors is always improving. It might be possible to find something of use there. (???%. 1 Year. Resources?)

[] Survey Northern Core: The Northern Core has been surveyed many times, but technology and the skill of surveyors is always improving. It might be possible to find something of use there. (???%. 1 Year. Resources?)

[] Survey Memory of Spirits Province: Memory of Spirits has been surveyed many times, but technology and the skill of surveyors is always improving. It might be possible to find something of use there. (???%. 1 Year. Resources?)

[] Develop Wagon Ways, Stonepen: Stonepen was always the smallest of your great cities, as it did not have an easily navigable waterway to help feed it. With wagonways, such as you have in mines and in the great cities of Redshore and Trelli, it would be possible to roughly quadruple the ammount of goods shipped to and from Stonepen. (55%. 4 years. Very Expensive, +.1 Income, +15% on Wagonways Megaprojects)

[] Support Province: Give one of the provinces considerable sums of money to assist in their current infrastructural projects. (85%, 1 Year, Expensive, +Province Loyalty)
-Write in which province



Intrigue:

[] Establish Spy Network: Establish a spy network in one of the places you have diplomatic contact with. (33%. 3 Years. Fails entirely if it fails once. Unlocks options. May be taken multiple times, but only with different targets.)
-Write in Target

[] Infiltration, Styrmyr: You can't imagine the People of Greenshore are happy to be under the occupation of the Styrmyr. See if you can't find some organized resistance to speak to or fund. (???%. ? Years. ???)

[] Create Sleeper Cells, Black Sheep: You have your hooks in the Black Sheep. Find people who are willing to join your cause when you go to liberate them. (???%. ? Years. ???)

[] Determine Internal Factions: Receive a dossier on the relevant internal factions of a polity you have diplomatic relations with. This will allow you to support or oppose their internal factions to be more favorable to your interests.
-[] Write in a polity you have diplomatic relations with, may be taken more then once with different targets for each time the action is taken.

[] Investigate Assassination Attempt: Someone tried to kill the king with gunpowder. Find out who, and find out why. (???%, 1 Year, +Information.)


Mysticism:

[] Spreading the Warding, Abyss: The land of Abyss seems to be a robust and centralized state. It can be trusted with the knowledge of the Sacred Warding. Fighting the starpox is always desirable. (50%. 5 Years. +1 Abyss Opinion, possible +1 Abyss Opinion. Starpox fought.)

[] Spreading the Warding, Hung: The Central Empire has an extremely robust bureaucracy. They can be trusted with the sacred warding. It should be spread to them, to defend as many people as possible against the starpox. (50%. 7 years, +1 Hung Opinion, possible +1 Hung opinion. Starpox fought.)

[] Spreading the Warding, Amber Road: Amber Road lost their herds when the Great Khan rolled through. However, the institutions they have been building are robust. It would be quite simple to restore the warding to them. (75%. 4 years. +Amber Road Opinion. Starpox fought)

[] Spreading the Warding, Pamplona: Pamplona has established a robust enough bureaucracy that they can be trusted with the Sacred Warding. Give it to them to continue Bynwyn's work. (50%. 4 years. +Pamplona Opinion. Starpox fought.)

[] Against Cholera, Abyss: The people of Abyss lack a treatment for the cholera. Demonstrate your might and generosity by giving your to them. (85%. 1 Year. Possible +Abyss Opinion)

[] Touch the Cow, Do It Now, Greenshore: Reestablish the Sacred Warding in Greenshore. (60%, 3 Years, Sacred Warding restored in Greenshore)


FREE ACTIONS:

[] Rent out Banner Companies: Uncommitted Banner Companies may be rented out for a five year term. (Profitable).

[] Deploy Banner Companies: Uncommitted Banner Companies may be deployed to a war zone of your choice.



MEGAPROJECTS:

Greenhouses: The Kings of old built a number of grand greenhouses to tend exotic plants from far away, so that they could be studied and for their own enjoyment. Most of these greenhouses were smashed by the Great Khan. Restore them. (Authority + 90%, 20 Years, -1 Treasury Status every four years)

Signal Towers: One of the issues that always plagued the governance of the Thunder Plateau was how far away and difficult to reach it was. It would be possible to set up signal relay towers along the way, which would greatly speed up messaging between the Plateau and the Core. It would take a lot of precision glasswork for the spyglasses, however. (Authority + 75%, 20 Years, -1 Treasury Status every four years)

Wagonways, Thunder Plateau: One of the issues that has always plagued the governance of the Thunder Plateau was how far away and difficult to reach it was. The transportation of goods especially suffered from this. However, it is possible to remedy this. There are rails used in the mines to ease transportation, and such things are also used in the Great Docks of Redshore. It would be possible to make rails of iron to vastly improve the carrying capacity of the horse wagons. However, this would require truly vast amounts of iron. (Authority + 50%, 25 years, -1 Treasury Status every four years, Expensive)

Reform THE LAW: It has been a very long time since the last time the Law was compiled and streamlined. There has been much accumulation of loopholes, drifts, and patching as the times changed. The current law is confusing and difficult and in many ways outdated. It should be simplified, updated for the current age, and recodified. (Authority + 90%, 20 Years, -1 Treasury Status every four years, +1 Authority on completion)



Personal Action (Choose One):
[] Work Overtime (+1 temp Influence, +Stress)
[] Relax with Family (-Stress)
[] Catch up on the latest plays and theological debates (-Stress)
[] Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
-[] Write in Action



Voting is by plan.
Two Hour Moratorium.
 
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@Aranfan is it possible to get an action to kind of acclimatize the polity to the new math instead of switching immediately? 16% is too low and the risks too high, so some actions to move up the probability are needed otherwise this action will never be taken. Something like an educational reform?
 
@Aranfan is it possible to get an action to kind of acclimatize the polity to the new math instead of switching immediately? 16% is too low and the risks too high, so some actions to move up the probability are needed otherwise this action will never be taken. Something like an educational reform?
It's going up on it's own as the popularity of the new number system catches on.

Though an action to speed it up wouldn't run amiss ether.
 
@Aranfan is it possible to get an action to kind of acclimatize the polity to the new math instead of switching immediately? 16% is too low and the risks too high, so some actions to move up the probability are needed otherwise this action will never be taken. Something like an educational reform?

It will become easier with time as people become more accustomed to the idea and it becomes less radical due to increased familiarity.
 
@Aranfan is it possible to get an action to kind of acclimatize the polity to the new math instead of switching immediately? 16% is too low and the risks too high, so some actions to move up the probability are needed otherwise this action will never be taken. Something like an educational reform?

That's a good idea for a mysticism action actually. I'll consider sponsoring proliferation of the Kus numerals as an action next turn.
 
While some of the details are out of date, this post covers the basics of what we need for the near future, specially the Liberation of Thunder Plateau due to the time limit on the Black Sheep assimilating it and how long and hard it will be to retake it.
Okay, (not so) long term situation analysis. We are going to war with Styrmyr to get back Greenshore and it will be a multiple year affair that once it is over, we'll be beginning to move on the Black Sheep to liberate Thunder Plateau. We will want to get 5/10 or 6/10 Treasury for this because while the Guild Industry will pay for half the costs of the Mass Levy, which is needed to take Thunder Plateau, we will need a war chest for the other half of the costs. In this case, we are doing pretty good.

We got 5.7/10 Treasury right now and while we are going to be spending 1 Treasury this year on a City Levy, we will also be getting 1 Treasury from the Guild Industry for a net change of nothing. In 1610, we will be losing 0.7 Treasury due to Income, but we will be getting 1 Treasury from the Guild Industry which gives us a net change of +0.3 Treasury, putting us at 6/10. Given how our Income could change or unexpected costs could pop up, I would like to do one action to make money or two more if we can afford it, but financially we are good barring unexpected changes.

Timeline wise, we got to move on Black Sheep as soon as the current war with Styrmyr concludes though we will have some breathing room to get our act together following once we got Greenshore back as we will take a year to make a diplo demand to the Black Sheep.

Edit: If we can get some more spare Treasury, I'm thinking of doing another Warship action. We could do with some more warships in either the Monsoon Sea or the Saffron Sea for future endeavours and I will certainly want to get some more once we got Thunder Plateau back. A third Banner Company might be nice as well.

The gist is we need the Mass Levy to win and we will want Guild Industry to pay half of its cost while we want a war chest of 5/10 or 6/10 Treasury to pay for the other half of the costs. Ideally we will want positive income and I remember that we need warships to be at Poor in a few places. Black Sheep campaign takes 5+ years and we need to win it by the early 1620s to be able to hold the land. We need to do this to avoid a death spiral from revanchism.
 
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Oh shit, I forgot income iterates on years that are multiples of 5 rather than turns that are multiples of 5. I need to change a thing.

Edit: No wait, that iterates at the end of this turn. Nevermind.
 
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Oh shit, I forgot income iterates on years that are multiples of 5 rather than turns that are multiples of 5. I need to change a thing.

We also get Treasury from the Guild Industry on even turns if you are talking about when we do and don't get income.

Also this post might be useful as it is still accurate for the most part:
1608 Initial Results Snapshot of frequently-changed stats (1608 Start)






Additional Stats (1608 Initial Results)
Authority: 1
Influence: 5 (+1 in 1610)
Estimated Stress (unknown start point): 4.6
Other Notables: None
Revaunchists Appeasement: Liberation of Greenshore
Txollan Concerns Met: Establish Trade Enclaves, Hung (expires in 1611); Sacred Warding, Hung (expires in 1615)

Num Profitable Markets: 3 (2 without Probable -Amber Road Opinion) ???
Num Semi-Profitable Markets [Estimated Treasury]: 4 [2.5] ???

Next Guild Income Within: 1610
Treasury: 5.8 (-0.8 within 1610, 1615,... ; +1 within 1610, 1612,...)
Unoccupied Banner Companies: None

Action [Investment]: Scheduled Investment Return Year (Estimated Return Year)
Sacred Warding, Hung [1 Authority]: 1615
Establish Trade Enclaves, Hung [1 Influence]: 1611

Revaunchists Weakenings: 3 (+1 Pending)
  1. Tin Tribes Independence
  2. White Peace with Hellas
  3. Amber Road Independence
  4. Refrain from conquering Stymyr to mountains (Pending)
3 weakenings likely reduces "antsy": no more half-measures -> reduced half-measure roll weights
Revaunchists Notes: (This was before the Stymyr war) "Revaunchists are antsy, and displeased by the hits they have been taking. Half Measures are more likely to fail to appease them, but enough of them probably will." (Source)

Note: expect +1 Revaunchist weakening this midturn

All dates are tentative estimates; they can change in response to circumstances (e.g. failures, crits). +/-1 in [year] means that an extra +/-1 will be available for us during Turn [year]. It is unknown when in the year Income and Guild Income take effect, only that they do "within" that year.
 
I should also mention that we can't afford to the Sacred Warding again. We only got enough for another go right now and that needs to be for reclaimed Ymaryn land rather than a foreign power. We have also lost multiple Against Cholera actions.
 
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[] Plan Blank
-[] Authority:
-[] Influence:
-[] Influence:
-[] Influence:
-[] Influence:
-[] Influence:
-[] Influence:
-[] Personal:

A blank plan template to be helpful.

Edit: Forgot the Personal Action.
 
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Wait. Shit. FUCK.

Forgot about re-establishing the sacred warding in Greenshore. That should be on the Action List. Same costs and benefits as previous ones.
 
[ ] Plan Draft
-[] Authority: Investigate Assassination Attempt
-[] Influence: Against Cholera, Abyss
-[] Influence: Touch the Cow, Do It Now, Greenshore
-[] Influence: Diplomatic Contact, Hellas
-[] Influence: Sell Bombards, Berba
-[] Influence: ???
-[] Influence: ???
-[] Personal: Relax with Family

Here's what I came up with after a couple of minutes. Not sure what to do for the last two Influence though? Is there anyone else we'd like to sell Bombards to? Or maybe we could do some Surveys and see if they come up with anything interesting? I feel it's a bit too risky to go for establishing Sleeper Cells in the Black Sheep Empire without an Authority, but I also think that we really need an Authority to figure out who just tried to murder the King.
 
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Here's what I came up with after a couple of minutes. Not sure what to do for the last two Influence though? Is there anyone else we'd like to sell Bombards to? Or maybe we could do some Surveys and see if they come up with anything interesting? I feel it's a bit too risky to go for establishing Sleeper Cells in the Black Sheep Empire without an Authority, but I also think that we really need an Authority to figure out who just tried to murder the King.

Another attempt to diplomatically end the war with the styrmyr would not be amiss if you want that war to end.
 
Oh, that's an option? Didn't see Peace Talks, Styrmyr in the available Diplomacy actions, so I assumed we'd need to wait a bit on that.

If it is available, that just leaves one free Influence action. Hmm, since we've got two shots of the Sacred Warding, do we want to send the other to Amber Road? Or would we rather wait on that to avoid tying up another Influence for at least 4 years?
 
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[] Plan Oshha
-[] Authority: Touch the Cow, Do it Now, Greenshore: Greenshore's people have been stripped of the Sacred Warding when the nomads of the Khan's Horde stole the Sacred Herds. They have returned to the kingdom in large part to regain the Warding. This must be done to protect them once more from the starpox. (60%. 3 Years. Sacred Warding restored in Greenshore.)
-[] Influence: Against Cholera, Abyss: The people of Abyss lack a treatment for the cholera. Demonstrate your might and generosity by giving your to them. (85%. 1 Year. Possible +Abyss Opinion)
-[] Influence: Sell Bombards, Berba: Does Berba want Bombards? (75%, 1 Year, Profitable,
-[] Influence: Sell Bombards, Germanum Minors: Do the minors of the Rex Germanum want bombards? (75%. 1 Year. Probable Profit.)
-[] Influence: Construct Warships, Harmurri Gulf: Do you really need warships on the Monsoon Sea? The trade there is quite civilized with much less piracy than on the Saffron Sea. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[] Influence: Investigate Assassination Attempt: Someone tried to kill the king with gunpowder. Find out who, and find out why. (???%, 1 Year, +Information.)
-[] Influence: Peace Talks, Styrmyr: You have achieved your war goals, attempt to negotiate peace with the styrmyr. (Narrative%. 1 Year. Peace.)
-[] Personal: Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
--[] Peace Talks, Styrmyr

Authority goes on Touch the Cow for Greenshore because we need it to succeed. Taking the last available Against Cholera action for prestige. Selling Bombards to Berba and Germanum Minors for the money as both have a good chance of success and don't upset anyone as far as we know. I have chosen the Germanum Minors over the Kus Minors as I want to cause some fighting in Saffron while I figure that Kus is better off spending its money on food not guns. Since we can afford it, I am going to build some Warships in the Harmurri Gulf to support the upcoming Thunder Plateau Campaign and hopefully appease the revanchists though we have no reliable way to do that this turn.

Speaking of the revanchists, I think they are might be behind the assassination attempt due to how unhappy we have been making them so I am going to investigate the assassination attempt with a personal action to provide a bonus. Finally, the last Influence will be assigned to the peace talks action and depending on what it looks like, I might switch the personal action to providing a boost to that.

Edit: Added the new peace talks again and put our personal action on that.

I should also want to mention that Income will give us 0.7 Treasury this turn between our negative cash flow and the Guild Industry, leaving us at 7.5/10 Treasury before any changes from our actions are considered. Beyond that, we are looking at suffering -1 Income when our elderly Admin Hero dies so that is something to consider. And as I mentioned before, we want to keep Treasury at 5/10 or 6/10 for the upcoming war with the Black Sheep, something we will want to start as soon as possible.

Edit 2: I forgot that our Admin Hero had already died.
 
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Really glad to see this quest again!
Thano you, @Aranfan, hope you are doing well.

...and we will have to fight Styrmyr, won't we.

This said, reintegration of Greenshore and investigating the assassination attempt comes first.
 
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