... Warp Travel would not have stopped this, this was full out "They got complacent again despite a scare when we left, and then they did a poor military job defending themselves, so if whoever popped in was hostile, they'd be able to do quite a lot of damage--but unless whoever jumped them loaded for Exterminatus from the start, I don't see them getting completely rolled over that fast".
And the tech we gave them was still better than what most of the Imperium has easy access to, again, this is not a problem that would have been solved with bigger guns, this was a complacency problem here.
We don't know that. We don't know any of the details, really.
Unless one of the factions who know about Denva already came in with a huge alpha-strike, I actually kinda expect that they fought the first incursion off, at which point "complacency" stops being a factor and that 90 in industry growth wakes up and starts printing ships.
This would almost certainly be good enough to stop a second wave - it's one thing to see a bunch of factories, but one thing even the three factions who know about Denva missed is that these factories shit out materiel like nothing else in the galaxy. The space marines were duped into thinking 50 plasma rifles were "hard", the corsairs didn't get a good look, and Xylaris at best only knew anything about Denva second hand from the corsairs. Any of those three doing a salty runback after a repelled first invasion would be in for a
nasty surprise.
And had we stuck to our original schedule, that's where things would have ended. Vita would be back with the ability to 4x all manufacturing in the system and the updated tech for those factories to produce, outdoing any even remotely realistic comers. Even with their much higher strategic mobility and lack of roadbumps stopping them, 20 years is too little time to fit in a third wave that responds to Denvan manufacturing.
But we were gone for 40 years, not 20. And that
is enough time for a determined attacker to take Denva's measure and respond accordingly.
Hence, my insistence that we erred and that Neablis's questing philosophy is why we're not going to come back to find the Stellar Ascendancy nipped in the bud.
What I think is about to happen is that, as Alectai initially said, we're going to show up in time to be Big Damn Heroes, helping to stop that third wave. Big,
awesome fight. And then afterwards we get some kind of adventure hook to clean up after any fallout like tech capture, e.g. "you learned that attackers were from the forge world northwest of Zantris and their loot from Denva was likely taken there - now muster forces and invade them right back".
I look at those odds and say - if the setting was actually this dangerous, it wouldn't exist. Mind, I actually think Imperium straight up cannot function as written, but this is part of the handwave necessary to accept 40k as a setting.
It's 3 AM here, and I don't want to argue, but I did also say myself that there are diegetic reasons for why this shouldn't destroy Denva. But there is a practical reason too - they rolled great on industry, and good logistics and sheer industrial mass can compensate for a lot. It is entirely possible to write Denva eating shit in a fight and managing to squick by because they had trillion civilian robits to throw in a grinder.
Ehhh, I think you misunderstood me here.
It's not that any given world has a 1 in 400 chance of being 40k'd every half century. I mean, for the imperium in particular it
could and the imperium would still exist, I entered this conversation with proof of that, but that's still not what I'm saying.
I'm saying that at this point in time Denva
was realistically at heightened risk and that we chose not to mitigate, and that a 1/400 disaster across half a century would realistically be enough for that risk to do a 40k to Denva.
I'll leave it at that since you want to disengage - hopefully you're already asleep by now anyways.
To put it bluntly, if a couple of bad rolls (none of wich is even a crit fail, by the way) is enough to destroy all the massive amount of actions we have invested in uplifting Denva, then there is no rational reason to help anyone ever again, all the resources we don't invest in our own research or construction may as well be thrown into a black hole.
Dices should have consequences, bit if said consequences are "all your time and effort is worth shit and one of the main plots was killed off-screen" then that's just very poor storytelling.
Not saying that I think Neablis is going to do that, he has proven several times already to have a deep and profound understanding of how quests fail and how to avoid said traps, this was more like personal rambling.
I agree that Neablis isn't going to raw dog us over this. He's said what he's about - things will be bad, but the first two thirds of this quest aren't suddenly about to be moot.
At the same time though, I fundamentally disagree that this was just the dice screwing us. That's not how dice work in this quest - they choose from outcomes that are possible, rather than retroactively deciding what was possible. If Denva's survival WAS on the line, it would be because of our choices, plain and square.
So let's talk about what we could have done differently - and, what we originally planned to do.
We could have checked in on them sooner, like we originally planned to, and a 1/400 event would not realistically knock them down - I point out that we were gone long enough for multiple round trip reinforcements to arrive in favor of an invading force.
Our original road trip plan was to only be gone 15-20 years. That was a good plan! The risk of a
sustained attack was a lot more negligable along that timeframe, Denva would only have to repulse or hold off against a few waves, and with their manufacturing crit, easily would have. See my reply to Alectai below for details on how I'd think that would go.
We just... Chose not to stick to that plan, and didn't do anything else to mitigate that risk, even after a new red flag in the form of Xylaris's grudge appeared.
Some readers may recall a similar thing happened to result in Bongo's first escape, the one where he took over those grand cruisers. Vibes won over sticking to the plan,
and I was one of the people who got snookered by said vibes back then too, just like I personally didn't take the risk to denva seriously enough this time. The dice did not fuck us over with Bongo, they just
failed to bail us out.
But at the end of the day, I believe Denva's mil/defense rolls should realistically be viewed less as the dice fucking us up out of nowhere, and more as the dice failing an easy saving throw to cover our mistakes.
That's how we
have to view it, if we want to preserve any sense of agency at all.
So is the complaint that we spent too much time per system doing other things, not too little doing exploration?
I'm pretty sure we were free to completely skip interacting with the people in the last two systems if we chose, even arguably encouraged to do so in Vorthryn, but too much player pressure against doing so.
I can't speak for everyone, but the rationale I heard most often and loudly - not just here, but on Discord where I workshop most of my stuff - was less about timelines and more about "We
only just escaped, please don't go back to Denva already".
Which, honestly? Perfectly understandable, and it's part of why I didn't push to abandon our road trip in favor of a breadth first exploration of denva's neighbors harder.
Interesting. I think the opposite lesson should be taken—that we never put so many eggs in any basket again. Stay mobile, don't get too invested or tethered to any one place, make sure we have what we need to rebuild on our mobile fleet, invest in many places.
I guess when bad things happen everyone has a tendency to go "well, if we'd done it my way..."
In the end, one can deal with risks in two ways—prevention, to reduce chance, or mitigation, to reduce harm. And one can only prevent or mitigate so much. Let's see what we can salvage from whatever the crisis is, this time. There's some very thorough people in this thread, and we have diversity of thought. We'll come up with something.
For what it's worth, I'm very cognizant of the "well if we'd done it my way" pitfall and I'm trying to avoid it.
It's why I'm trying to keep pointing out that even if I had a
preference at times to return to Denva earlier, and even if I pointed at our original timeline, I did not actually pound the table about this outcome being possible, I did not push, and I even advocated for longer stays out on the frontier.
I am not Cassandra.
As far as eggs in one basket go though - DragonParadox's talks about chaos demonstrate the problem with that, in that one of our baskets getting raided threatens any basket we have anywhere else by making the entire setting wildly more dangerous, depending on who got the eggs.