thread policyDiscussion of politics that does not directly relate to the Quest or to Quest votes are banned from hereon out. This thread policy will be enforced by the Moderation team. Do not ignore it.
[X] Briefly indulge in the idea of overthrowing the monarchy of the Shawnee Kingdom and install Mary as the new princess. Before sighing, reminding yourself to be sensible, and...
[X] Remove Hostile Neighborhood. You have been the focus of low-grade hostility and resentment for too long. And...well, all right, you've not actually been very proactive about doing anything about that. But you are tired of it, and you will never get a chance to be surer than now that you'll have the ultimate opportunity to finally change people's perceptions of you. You can't make a second first impression, but you can kill that bastard first impression while you have the chance.
we need to start slow. we are revivalists yes but even the old USA was not built in a few years it took a long time to get there and we need to be reasonable about this. first remove the malus then as we see agemdas come out we can see what we can expand softly with and what issues we will have to deal with. if we do encounter states that seek to use us as a meat shield then we can keep that in mind as we eventually might have to forcibly deal with them.
however as our last encounter with victoria showed we cannot push too hard and fast. we are NOT the industrial and political powerhouse that the old USA was, not yet anyway and we need to know when and where to apply our resources.
Furthermore i just saw a post regarding the NCR well I do want to see a restored USA as eventually we will have to deal with russia and a unified state will be better than a union of states. but if we do have to do a union of states then lets make sure that eventually we do reform the United states later via diplomacy. (also remember we get enough legitimacy we get causus belli on all old USA claims) we dont need to use that as a war goal but perhaps we can use softer power or negotiations to eventually get there.
Dictatorships and other botched states are fair targets but revivalism has to take a backseat to self-determination where the two clash. The goal isn't to be the Enclave, it's to reunify like-minded Revivalists and talk the rest into things over time. In the short term, legitimate, representative states that opt out are not going to be subject to forcible conquest.
Truth be told, I kinda struggle to imagine why any legitimate, representative state would do that. Once the Revivalism train starts picking up speed, with the Commonwealth, NCR, New York, and presumably Miami grabbing up clay (both to accomplish the goal and to put themselves in a better negotiating position when the brass tracts are laid down and we go to the table to figure out how the new nation's gonna work) it's difficult to imagine any genuinely benevolent state would insist on remaining independent, especially since it'd obviously be a farce with their existence continuing either at our goodwill or at the backing of hostile foreign powers.
Among other things, because I strongly suspect we'll get some First Nations-dominated polities that want a better deal than they got from the US's gunpoint "treaty negotiations" of 200 years ago,
Do you really think they're going to be a relevant political force? I'm sure we'll give them some sorta special provisions or statehood, but they're a tiny minority on isolated and unimportant land - and I doubt Victoria's dominance has given them any ability to change that.
I was under the impression we'd just end up adding the Canadian states to the flag. It's not like Canada isn't (for all extents and purposes) completely bound economically and politically to the US today.
Also because I suspect the NCR doesn't actually want to join a revivalist United States, or won't again, and may prefer to remain independent. And I'd like for this not to become a sticking point between us after all the imperialists are pushed off the continent.
Truth be told, I kinda struggle to imagine why any legitimate, representative state would do that. Once the Revivalism train starts picking up speed, with the Commonwealth, NCR, New York, and presumably Miami grabbing up clay (both to accomplish the goal and to put themselves in a better negotiating position when the brass tracts are laid down and we go to the table to figure out how the new nation's gonna work) it's difficult to imagine any genuinely benevolent state would insist on remaining independent, especially since it'd obviously be a farce with their existence continuing either at our goodwill or at the backing of hostile foreign powers.
Do you really think they're going to be a relevant political force? I'm sure we'll give them some sorta special provisions or statehood, but they're a tiny minority on isolated and unimportant land - and I doubt Victoria's dominance has given them any ability to change that.
I was under the impression we'd just end up adding the Canadian states to the flag. It's not like Canada isn't (for all extents and purposes) completely bound economically and politically to the US today.
... Really? Why on earth would you think that? Didn't they already fight a war over trying to restore the old US, and are eagerly planning round 2?
American iNdiViDuALiSm has probably not improved with the genre shift to postapocalyptic. A farce is still a farce that has to be maintained for the sake of our own legitimacy.
Considering how depopulated the continent is and how warlords are relevant figures, I think you're seriously overlooking how influential other powers are and what it takes to be a relevant group in a post systematic culling American continent. A handful of guns and trucks makes you a significant power in this new world.
Seriously, pls no Enclave cosplay/looking down on the Canadians.
Lamb Among Wolves (Sheep in the big city)
Pat 3: Then and Now
Internalized ableism. Self-hatred. Traumatic situations. Mass OSHA violations.
THEN
Mary awoke with a jolt. Her hand flailed until it hit the metal side with a painful bang. As she nursed it, she tried to gather her wits. Papa had been right there and… and she was in the wrong bed, surrounded by metal.
The ship, but she had been at home with John and Papa and… and that didn't make sense, did it? She had been on the boat, then home, now ship, so, it was a dream? It felt real, and she couldn't understand how she could have gotten to sleep, all alone in this wrong bed with metal around her and the noise of the machines that drove the ship. She remembered lying in bed, desperately hoping sleep would take her.
Part of her still felt it was impossible to get up, but she was well trained in getting up when she didn't want too. There was even less excuse for laziness when the stakes were, literally, everyone. As she got up and got dressed, the obviousness that it was just a dream made more and more sense, though how she had managed to fall asleep still felt like an unsolvable mystery.
She opened the door and nearly walked over her breakfast. She stopped herself just in time and looked at the tray before her; it wasn't just porridge, but sausage, eggs, cabbage, and onions. This was the sort of breakfast she might cook for the entire family when Papa was home. Not something for every day, and it had been prepared for her. Children did not get individual breakfast. Trays like this, these were for when Papa didn't feel like coming out when he was busy. That was always a delicate task since it would insult him to imply, he wouldn't want to eat breakfast with his family, but leaving him without breakfast...
Mary carried the tray to the table and dipped her spoon in the porridge. It was sweet. This porridge had honey, or perhaps even sugar in it. She had barely tasted such except when Papa brought it in. She ate, forcing one bite after, but her mind was not there. It was all wrong, eating like this. Alone. She couldn't remember the last time she'd eaten alone, really. Sure, she might eat early if she needed to be serving, but that wasn't really alone, everyone was there, just asleep.
It most reminded herself of the early days. Not the first, she didn't honestly remember anything of coming, only the stories that Papa told. He's always said she'd barely cried when she'd been given the sign of the garden. It was how he'd known she was going to be the perfect daughter.
But those early days... The Lewis's were not bad, of course. She should be grateful for them, looking after her when Papa was away. They had kept her fed and taught her how to cook, clean, and sow. They were not her Papa. She was not their child. Praise, affection, love, those were what only Papa could give. She was always to remember that when they were there. She'd tried a few times, and they'd reminded her.
It was one of the reasons that, stress aside, she had loved it when Papa came home. His warm embrace, care, telling her stories of his exploits. There wasn't anyone else. Mercy helped, but she wasn't part of the same house until John came; it was just her, alone.
She didn't feel like eating, it was too much, too rich. It was a sin not to eat all the food; looking down at her plate, she could see the most considerable portion of scraps she'd ever known. Typically, such scraps would be either saved and re-baked, or given to the other children. But neither was an option. After debating with herself, she opted to leave the tray outside her door. Hopefully, someone would make use of it, the idea of all that, including honey, going to waste was unthinkable.
She made her way out of the cramped, metal passages of the to the top of the ship. The sun was shining down, the day had fully begun. How had she possibly slept this long? She had assumed it was barely morning, but to have slept in so late. How had she been so lazy when everyone was relying on her? Before she could adequately berate herself, her eye was caught by the scenery.
They were on the lake, but there was land on both sides. She could make out something, possibly towns on both sides. Ships were docked in numbers she had never seen, and Papa's stories about pirates bubbled up uncomfortably.
They should be safe? These were Chicago waters, right? No pirates would dare attack someone headed there to the conference, right? Unless, of course, Chicago only respected strength and expected anyone to be tough enough to get through. Or they killed them all, and Chicago never found out. Or-
Mary closed her eyes. Don't worry about that. Just take those worries and shoved them down and focus on doing what you need to do. It was the only way to manage anything.
OoOoOoOoOo
Thomas was a simple boy, but good with machines. Everyone knew this and said so, so he knew it as well. His Papa would often say it, Thomas didn't say anything back, don't speak unless directly spoken to. Unless his Papa said something about how his name was appropriate or how he would fit right in with his namesake division and laughed. If Papa laughed, you laughed and hoped it was the right choice. If his sister Purity was there, then he'd see if she laughed, but women couldn't use machines, too complicated for them, so she wasn't always there when Papa was with him.
Thomas was good with machines, which wasn't something that most Children were; machines were corrupting and dangerous. But his Papa worked with them and had his work with them. He'd been seven, watching Papa try to repair an engine (Papa was one of the few in logistics). Papa said that he had known Thomas was good with machines when he found him spinning gears during the fight that had taken the town. These days, Papa didn't even usually watch him directly; Papa just showed him what he needed to fix and then went to the house.
Which was probably best for everyone. Thomas wasn't at dinner to disturb everyone. He didn't have to worry about fidgeting and Papa correcting it. Just machines, simple, understandable tools. Long as he followed a few rules. Only touch what he was allowed to touch. Fix it all, if he couldn't, talk to Purity first, she could usually help make sure that Papa didn't get angry about it. Machines were dangerous, corrupting influences, but Thomas was simple, and therefore, by Papa's reckoning, not a risk. That was good, Thomas was simple, but even he knew what happened to other Children who worked with machines and started getting ideas, so Thomas tried to avoid them.
Thomas was checking the engine when he heard the person clearing their throat. He wasn't sure what someone else was doing there, but it wasn't necessary. No one really knew what this journey would be like. This changed a lot and complaining about changes made you a brat, which was not something you wanted to be. Thomas could keep it together, had too.
"Excuse me." The person said, which was probably good? At least they were being polite about intruding on his space. Thomas nodded in acknowledgment and continued on.
"I wish to talk with you." The same person said again.
Thomas stopped and looked up. The ambassador stood in from of him, the sown sash marking her clearly. That wasn't good, If she wanted to speak with him and had been here the entire time, then the other things she had been doing were probably things to say she wanted to talk. Which met that he had been ignoring her. It wasn't the first time he cursed how stupid he was. "Sorry, ma'am." Start with an apology, now eyes up or down?
The problem was he didn't even know what the ambassador was, really. It wouldn't have mattered if she was just a woman, the rules were simple then, don't talk to them. If necessary, let Purity talk. She'd had this talk with him clearly two years ago when he turned thirteen. He was becoming a man now and was not to speak to other girls lest he look improper, especially when papas were home. Even Thomas wasn't stupid enough to not understand the difference between when papas were around and weren't.
But that was the problem. What was an ambassador? He knew she was in charge, but "in charge" left a disturbing amount of ambiguity. Was she in charge like Papa was in charge, or like Purity was in charge? She was a woman, so that said Purity, but it had been emphasized that she was different; she was going to be the one talking to Chicago. Chicago woman had killed Papa, all the papas, they had invaded Victoria. Purity had been horrified at the idea and talked about her with fear reserved for Papa.
He looked at her clothes. Maybe he could figure it out there?. Dress, so that said Purity. But the dress wasn't like Purity's, it wasn't like any dress he had seen. It had too many.... things. Ribbons, and what he could only describe as fancier ribbons. The only time he'd ever seen something remotely like this was the dress some of the girls wore when the left for Victoria with their husbands. He hadn't been supposed to look, but he'd been working on the engines when Papa had ordered him out and had got curious. When he told Purity about it, that was what had prompted her orders to never look at women, and never, ever tell Papa). This was....more. More colors. More everything. He had no idea what it met. Then again, this was a ship, so maybe it was like that? Chicago husbands, not Victoria?
"Mr. Engineer?" the ambassador asked.
Thomas cursed his idiocy. She had been talking. She had been talking, and he hadn't paid attention, like a simpleton. At least he hadn't been playing with his wrench, Papa hated that. Simple rules here, apologize, accept punishment, do what was asked, he looked at the floor, praying this was a "look ashamed" time and not a "look at me when I'm speaking boy." time
"I'm sorry I couldn't make out what you said. It is loud in here." One of the few useful lies he'd ever managed to come up with himself, and one that seemed worked better than most.
"OH," She said. "I WANTED TO KNOW HOW THIS MACHINE WORKS. COULD YOU TEACH ME?"
That didn't help at all. Women didn't ask about machines, and papas didn't ask to be taught anything, they already knew it all. Which met she was... some new category, something he didn't know the rules for. Just focus on obeying, for now, neither Purity not Papa got mad if you did what they said, at least if you didn't get it wrong. And she was asking about machines, and that was easy. He liked engines, much more comfortable than people.
He started explaining it with only a few interruptions.
"IT EXPLODES?"
"Just tiny, controlled ones." Purity had been like that the one time he'd tried explaining oil to her. "It gets pumped in at the right amounts here, and the tiny explosions drive the rest of the machinery, moving the gears you can see here."
"And we have this oil in the ship?"
"Yeah, lots of it in the hold."
"And if it caught on fire?"
"Oh, don't worry about that. It's all safely stored away, where it can't catch on fire." She gave a look, which was probably being impressed by that. He went back to explaining how a crankshaft worked, and the screw turned the ship; those were important.
It all seemed to go well. Thomas knew about machines, explaining machines were easy. He wasn't sure why she asked, maybe it was because she was from Chicago (Purity had said that as well). They were supposed to be 'machine men,' so perhaps that made her one. He wasn't sure.
And then it went wrong. "So, this is one of the gears?" She said as she lifted her arms towards the crankshaft.
"Actually that's one-"
His replay was interrupted as she shrieked. One of her ribbon-like things had gotten caught in the engine, and her arm was being pulled in. She pulled back, and the dress began to rip. He should do something, but the dress was so fancy looking and breaking expensive things was a huge offense and.
"HELP ME!" She shouted, with a papa like anger. Before he even knew what he was doing, instinct too over, and he grabbed her arm and pulled. The sleeve of the dress ripped off as she and he fall back, the torn fabric quickly mangled into shreds by the powerful movement of the engine. Tom turned to the ambassador who was sprawled on the floor, her sleeve ripped open, her Sign of the Garden clearly visible along her upper arm. The ambassador picked herself up, moving swiftly out of the room.
Thomas sat there. He had screwed up, he's screwed up because he was too simple, too stupid to keep it safe. He had let himself get happy. He'd let himself get arrogant, focusing on the engine, like an idiot. Not remembering he was an idiot and couldn't keep people safe. And it was his machine to work on, so it was his fault.
He'd done worse than just destroy something, he'd been close enough to see real bare skin. He'd seen her Sign of the Garden. That was practically rape. He was going to be shot if she told anyone. Thomas cried. He hated himself. He hated how stupid he was. How useless he was.
OoOoOoOoOo
Mary slammed the door to her room. That had been a disaster. She'd wanted to find out more about machines, perhaps that would make them happy if she knew something, or understand them. But finding out that the ship was full of things that exploded, and the danger of machines... it was insane to use them.
Worse, the dress had been her fault. It had seemed like a good idea, sort of like her traditional clothes. Still, fancier, more 'ambassadory" but clearly fancy clothes were not something you could wear with machines. Which left her back, trying to decide what clothes she should wear.
And she'd yelled at the boy. With anger, like an orc. She'd just been so mad as he stood there looking at her as she was dragged in. She felt angry, scared as well, but she shouldn't have let that become anger. It felt like every second she was away, she was becoming more and more orchish. What if she grew to tainted, should she even come back? What if she hurt someone? Murdered John, or her own children. She had heard that orcish woman did that.
Mary ripped off the dress. She couldn't deal with clothes right now, and while she should have tried one something else, she just went with a regular dress. Easy, comforting, she would figure out what to wear later. For now, she would, she would-
There was shouting coming from the top. Mary ran to the deck, where several sailors were pointing outward. Mary looked. Upon the horizon, within the sea itself were two enormous pillars, the one on the left about half the height of the other. Mary had never seen a rock formation like that-
And that's when she looked closer and saw what made them shout. Jutting out from the pillars were bits of metal that stretched out but did not touch each other. As they grew nearer, the structure became even more mind-bending. The rock of the pillars was too smooth, too thin, it was something that someone had made, and its full size became clear. It was impossibly large, the taller reaching up to the sky, and even the smaller dwarfing their boat. And Mary couldn't tell what they were for? Were they crosses? What kind of people could make such enormous crosses and put them within the sea?
Mary forced herself away and walk to the man who had been designated as the Captain, he was such by being one of the oldest of the Children, perhaps even twenty. She thought he should have some sense of where they were. "Is this Chicago?" She asked.
"I don't... no, it can't be. We haven't turned down lake Michigan. This is... I'm pretty sure this is the straights of Mackinaw. We are only halfway there."
If this was only halfway there. If this was just a stop. Then what kind of place was Chicago? Mary's heart sank as they crossed the two unreal pillars.
OoOoOoOoOo
NOW
Mary ran through the ship, slamming the door behind her as she threw her clothes in a pile. She should fold them, but speed mattered right now, no Papa liked dawdling. And those Chicago women were papas.
There was a gentle knock on the door. "Mr---ma'am?" The word was awkward and uncertain, as they had all just learned it. It was what you called a woman that was like a Papa. And she was supposed to be an important figure.
"I'm busy!" She shouted back, fighting to get the pants off. Footsteps retreated down the hallways. Who had made these things? There was blessed silence as she managed to get out of the last of it and put on her Sunday best. She checked herself quickly in the mirror and walked out.
The Captain bowed to her in the hallways. "I am sorry about the interruption. Mark just wanted to ask if there was anything he could do."
Immediately Mary felt a drop in her stomach. She'd let her orchishness retake hold of her and yelled with anger. She'd nearly done so at the leader, at Sara herself! That was like... like Grandfather Smith, almost. Thanks, everything she'd managed to control her face, and they hadn't noticed.
She breathed in. "I am sorry I did not mean to scare him. Now is not a good time, and I need to get back. I can't ask about what you should do." She said, walking swiftly back to the gangplank as the Captain nodded. The different villages had different names for it, 'not a good time, let's wait for now, good time/bad time,' but everyone knew it. You didn't ask papas for things when they were angry, you didn't give them bad news, you didn't' ask questions that shouldn't be asked.
She gave another breath and turned to him. "Stay in the ship for now. Do anything they ask, but I won't know more until later. If I... if I don't say anything by the next night, sail back and tell the council... I'm sure they have come up with a plan for what to do next." She smiled as she saw some of the younger sailors risking peaking at her. With a slightly louder voice, "Everything will be just fine."
The Captain smiled back, and in his own happy voice, agreed. "Yes, everything will be fine."
With that, Mary steeled herself and walked down the gangplank again.
OoOoOoOo
AN: The crosses are the remains of the support structure of the Mackinaw. Which was blown to uselessness as part of Victoria's anti-bridge porgram.
So to drop a bit from Mary's perspective a second time, the answer to the previous question of 'where are the people who raised her?' is that they are probably alive. The Victorian's went in and purged a huge number of the original inhabitants but kept enough for child-raising. Said raising was done with the instructions of "this is my kid, and if I so much as suspect you are corrupting them, I will shoot you. Feed them, train them, nothing else." This means that the first generation's only source of affection was their "papas." Granted, sometimes a family would show affection and either flee in the night or get purged, damn shame to weed the kid as well, but can't have potential resentment. (Though a military division isn't the CMC, and so many could fly under the radar). As such, the first generation of Children has a level of unpleasant love for their abusers. Because if the only place you can get parental affection is with an abuser.... you do. "He hurts me and that shows he loves me" is considered to be a completely reasonable statement to them.
Also, Victoria is unsurprisingly ableist as hell and puts autism as being 'stupid.' Or at least the autism that survives, the alternative is 'willful,' and that's a weeding crime. Not sure about the who 'good with mechanics' thing as it digs a little into the 'savant' stereotype, but I justify it with he's not a super-genius. It gives a good reason for him not to be weeded.
Also, Victorian machine safety standards make OSHA cry.
American iNdiViDuALiSm has probably not improved with the genre shift to postapocalyptic. A farce is still a farce that has to be maintained for the sake of our own legitimacy.
I think you're seriously overlooking how influential other powers are and what it takes to be a relevant group in a post systematic culling American continent. A handful of guns and trucks makes you a significant power in this new world.
This ... why on earth are you immediately jumping to the fucking Enclave? Is that really what you think I'm advocating?
I'm not 'looking down' on Canadians, I'm pointing out the simple reality of the nation's political situation - before the Commonwealth collapsed and they got Victoria'd with extreme prejudice.
Yeah, the spot on Atlanta was a quick and dirty way to mark it. I just reused a circle from a map I did for a different scenario. I'm currently considering ways to indicate where destroyed/abandoned cities like Atlanta and Ashtabula are.
Pretty sure Atlanta isn't abandoned, any more than Nagasaki is. Too much of a southern trade and transport hub, and the suburbs were untouched.
Temporary evacuation of affected areas after the event, but even that is questionable.
The GM made a comment about the size of the nuke used somewhere upthread IIRC, and its closer to 5kt than to 500 kt.
I will note that I'm pretty sure that the Shawnee Kingdom's territory has the usual racial mix for the region (mostly whites and blacks and some Latinos). The actual Shawnee, the Native American ethnic group, got forcibly deported over 200 years ago in this setting; all that's left in the area is their names on some of the terrain features. This doesn't automatically invalidate anything you just said, but I want to make sure we're clear on it.
Usual racial mix for the region, yes. Just that usual racial mix for the region is projected to be much browner.
The United States becomes a majority-minority country around 2045.Ethnic minority children allegedly became the majority in 2020.
Given how the Boomers are long dead, and the millenials have mostly died out
I headcanon that much of the dysfunction that characterized the final years of the Old Country was due to the ongoing demographic transition being used as cover by sundry political actors of the alt-right persuasion. Had to be, if we had running battles between fascists and their opponents on the streets. Long tradition of racial scares in US politics.
Yes, but unless we forcibly integrate all the local polities likely to start such wars (in which case they'll fight us and THOSE wars will have costs too), some of that is likely to be inevitable in my opinion. Plus, if we do start fighting someone like Volk or the Shawnee Kingdom after declaring ourselves to be the muscular Number One without addressing Hostile Neighborhood, all those other polities will be soured against us and suspicious that we're basically just "Victoria, with better PR and more cannons."
You're talking about a nuclear airburst. This was a groundburst. It would have left a highly radioactive crater that would have taken much longer to dissipate, and a much thicker, heavier fallout plume than Hiroshima or Nagasaki, because solid matter caught up in the nuclear fireball would be getting thrown into the air as radioactive dust.
No, I'm talking about a groundburst. Rule of sevens applies to radioactive byproducts of nuclear events:
Article:
The chief delayed effect is the creation of huge amounts of radioactive material with long lifetimes (half-lifes ranging from days to millennia). The primary source of these products is the debris left from fission reactions. A potentially significant secondary source is neutron capture by non-radioactive isotopes both within the bomb and in the outside environment.
When atoms fission they can split in some 40 different ways, producing a mix of about 80 different isotopes. These isotopes vary widely in stability, some our completely stable while others undergo radioactive decay with half-lifes of fractions of a second. The decaying isotopes may themselves form stable or unstable daughter isotopes. The mixture thus quickly becomes even more complex, some 300 different isotopes of 36 elements have been identified in fission products.
Short-lived isotopes release their decay energy rapidly, creating intense radiation fields that also decline quickly. Long-lived isotopes release energy over long periods of time, creating radiation that is much less intense but more persistent. Fission products thus initially have a very high level of radiation that declines quickly, but as the intensity of radiation drops, so does the rate of decline.
A useful rule-of-thumb is the "rule of sevens". This rule states that for every seven-fold increase in time following a fission detonation (starting at or after 1 hour), the radiation intensity decreases by a factor of 10. Thus after 7 hours, the residual fission radioactivity declines 90%, to one-tenth its level of 1 hour. After 7*7 hours (49 hours, approx. 2 days), the level drops again by 90%. After 7*2 days (2 weeks) it drops a further 90%; and so on for 14 weeks. The rule is accurate to 25% for the first two weeks, and is accurate to a factor of two for the first six months. After 6 months, the rate of decline becomes much more rapid. The rule of sevens corresponds to an approximate t^-1.2 scaling relationship.
These radioactive products are most hazardous when they settle to the ground as "fallout". The rate at which fallout settles depends very strongly on the altitude at which the explosion occurs, and to a lesser extent on the size of the explosion.
If the explosion is a true air-burst (the fireball does not touch the ground), when the vaporized radioactive products cool enough to condense and solidify, they will do so to form microscopic particles. These particles are mostly lifted high into the atmosphere by the rising fireball, although significant amounts are deposited in the lower atmosphere by mixing that occurs due to convective circulation within the fireball. The larger the explosion, the higher and faster the fallout is lofted, and the smaller the proportion that is deposited in the lower atmosphere. For explosions with yields of 100 kt or less, the fireball does not rise abve the troposphere where precipitation occurs. All of this fallout will thus be brought to the ground by weather processes within months at most (usually much faster). In the megaton range, the fireball rises so high that it enters the stratosphere. The stratosphere is dry, and no weather processes exist there to bring fallout down quickly. Small fallout particles will descend over a period of months or years. Such long-delayed fallout has lost most of its hazard by the time it comes down, and will be distributed on a global scale. As yields increase above 100 kt, progressively more and more of the total fallout is injected into the stratosphere.
An explosion closer to the ground (close enough for the fireball to touch) sucks large amounts of dirt into the fireball. The dirt usually does not vaporize, and if it does, there is so much of it that it forms large particles. The radioactive isotopes are deposited on soil particles, which can fall quickly to earth. Fallout is deposited over a time span of minutes to days, creating downwind contamination both nearby and thousands of kilometers away. The most intense radiation is created by nearby fallout, because it is more densely deposited, and because short-lived isotopes haven't decayed yet. Weather conditions can affect this considerably of course. In particular, rainfall can "rain out" fallout to create very intense localized concentrations. Both external exposure to penetrating radiation, and internal exposure (ingestion of radioactive material) pose serious health risks.
Explosions close to the ground that do not touch it can still generate substantial hazards immediately below the burst point by neutron-activation. Neutrons absorbed by the soil can generate considerable radiation for several hours.
And it was supposed to be a small nuke, not the several hundred kiloton-yield B61 I was originally assuming.
I can't find the right keywords to find the GM quote; hoping someone else can help out.
According to NUKEMAP, a six kiloton nuclear groundburst would give a fireball of 120m radius, gut the government or black majority areas where it was planted, but the direct death toll would be in the low tens of thousands. Fallout effects and civil disorder could very well increase that by an order of magnitude when all's said and one.
But the area of actual infrastructure damage is pretty small, roughly 2km radius. Which means a lot of working infrastructure that's usable in two weeks. Some of Atlanta's most valuable real estate is the road network and trains that converge on it. And the suburbs are untouched.
I dont really see it being abandoned.
I expect that any potential "reunited America" will be a EU-like cludge of various overlapping zones, with the highest levels of the CFC/FCNY/NCR/Miami/Anyone Else Large, only coordinating foreign and military policy like NATO or some such.
The goal would be "Ever closer union", but it's going to be bit messy for a while.
Presumably non-democratic factions don't get access to the good stuff like infrastructure programs and free trade/free movement until they give in to the base level standards for their closest Mid tier bloc (again CFC/NCR/etc)
Truth be told, I kinda struggle to imagine why any legitimate, representative state would do that. Once the Revivalism train starts picking up speed, with the Commonwealth, NCR, New York, and presumably Miami grabbing up clay (both to accomplish the goal and to put themselves in a better negotiating position when the brass tracts are laid down and we go to the table to figure out how the new nation's gonna work) it's difficult to imagine any genuinely benevolent state would insist on remaining independent, especially since it'd obviously be a farce with their existence continuing either at our goodwill or at the backing of hostile foreign powers.
They could have a radically different political vision that they feel is incompatible with ours, but which has widespread genuinely popular support among their population? Like, say, the Mormons of Utah might honestly want to just be Deseret and have everyone mostly leave them alone. it's far from out of the question. WIthout someone coercively threatening them at gunpoint to reintegrate into the United States, they might very well prefer not to. I think that's a problem the NCR may be having soon, if they aren't already.
Do you really think they're going to be a relevant political force? I'm sure we'll give them some sorta special provisions or statehood, but they're a tiny minority on isolated and unimportant land - and I doubt Victoria's dominance has given them any ability to change that.
See for reference the Bemidji polity, Manitoulin Island, and our observations of the connections between them.
Furthermore, I didn't say they'd be "relevant" in the sense of "a large fraction of the overall continent's population and resources." The point is, they're an example of entities that have probably survived the Collapse as still-extant tiny ethnostates, mostly living on land nobody else cared about very much, and that will probably want to negotiate for (or have already quietly seized) better arrangements than they once had.
[Can totally imagine and would be cheering any reservations that just expanded, in an organized fashion, their borders to the original treaty boundaries guaranteed their reservation in 18XX and then just sat there grinning]
I was under the impression we'd just end up adding the Canadian states to the flag. It's not like Canada isn't (for all extents and purposes) completely bound economically and politically to the US today.
... Really? Why on earth would you think that? Didn't they already fight a war over trying to restore the old US, and are eagerly planning round 2?
They're planning to liberate themselves from the Russians. That doesn't mean they want to be part of a broader continental coalition. From their perspective, the US collapsed leaving them standing, and then the Vicks came to wipe them out with Russian help (or vice versa). They fell approximately ten years after the rest of the United States had largely collapsed, and after (for instance) Sara Goldblum was already an adult fighting Nazis.
Their plans may have changed and we should not assume they are passively awaiting integration until we see evidence for it.
And it was supposed to be a small nuke, not the several hundred kiloton-yield B61 I was originally assuming.
I can't find the right keywords to find the GM quote; hoping someone else can help out.
2038: The New Confederacy (oh, yeah, the South rose again) splits as the vile forces of the old order seize control of the government in the name of political correctness, calling themselves the New South! The sane parts of the country (the rural bits) fight back under the banner of the Old South! Bill Kraft sends Rumford to advise the Old South and help the fight against the New South. After getting bored of working within the Old South's modern military hierarchy (yes), Rumford hares off to the New South undercover. He learns that Atlanta, Georgia, the New South's capital, is on the verge of a riot by the city's blacks (yes, really), mirroring a similar one in New Orleans that completely leveled the city (I am actually serious here). Leaving the city, he happens across a Texas Rangers regiment, who prove positively eager to abet his plan to put down the riot by smuggling a nuke into the city. That...happens. And. It. It goes boom. Along with the New South's government. The South rejoices! (YES, REALLY!) Rumford sticks the Old South government the bill and walks home.
The New South (New American Confederation, properly, and never, "The New Confederacy,") was the most viable successor to the United States after the collapse and actually threatened to start restoring order to the rest of the country. Tsar Alexander could not have that; if the New South gained momentum, all of his work would be for naught. The Old South was a reactionary movement playing on increasing racial tensions, fueled by Okhrana efforts and armed by the Tsar. "Father," Dimitri received orders, and Rumford went to Richmond. The Texas Rangers regiment had previously been subverted by the Okhrana, playing on their frustrations with the (lack of) progress with their civil war. Then Atlanta rebelled. The New South's capital was distinctly uncomfortable with its position and hoped to declare independence along with the rest of Georgia, sidestepping out of the increasingly-messy civil war with international support. Rumford pitched to the Rangers the idea that this was the prelude to a foreign invasion of their homeland, with the aim of placing their homes, their families, and their very lives under the rule of a foreign-backed puppet. Hilarious coming from him, but the unit had been primed, their paranoia and frustrations stoked, for months. And...nuke. The Old South found itself in the position of their opposition's capital, an American city, having been leveled with a nuclear bomb, with one of the Old South's own units loudly claiming responsibility. Rumford went home whistling as the South came crashing down behind him.
...the Texas Rangers "smuggled" a nuke into the city. The most common warhead in the US nuclear arsenal is the W76, so stealing one of those rather than a B61 already has the advantage of plausibility. Those are ~90kt of yield, and apparently development recently commenced of a low-yield (<10kt) variant, which would fit the narrative of "something plausibly done by the Rangers as opposed to being a Russian op with them as the patsies."
(Remember, while the questers know that Atlanta was Russia by way of Rumford, as far as anyone except Russia knows, Texas Rangers fighting for the Old South did it on their own.)
OK. Just think we've gotta ask the questions. Another is, what do we do about some self-proclaimed overlord who says:
"No, I will not hold a plebiscite, my people are loyal to me just fine and I'm doing just fine here," when we have good reason to think all is not well and that they're terrorizing people? Sovereignty without democracy is... ideologically tricky for us.
I'm okay with a more opt-in approach that's more the North American EU (One might even call it a Union~) with healthy use of Old American symbolism where useful and leveraging goodwill to the hilt/playing the long game where that's less practical.
No thank you. That type of political structure has been tried before, and found wanting.
As currently constituted, the EU has major problems with formulating and executing policy in a timely manner. It's better than nothing, but there's a reason why the EU in this timeline has been pushing for tighter integration. After losing multiple members to annexation and having more destabilized.
And as has been decisively demonstrated over the last forty years, size has a virtue all of it's own.
Imperial Russia hasn't gone away.
I believe this is the only QM discussion of the nuking of Atlanta, which isn't specific, but:
...the Texas Rangers "smuggled" a nuke into the city. The most common warhead in the US nuclear arsenal is the W76, so stealing one of those rather than a B61 already has the advantage of plausibility. Those are ~90kt of yield, and apparently development recently commenced of a low-yield (<10kt) variant, which would fit the narrative of "something plausibly done by the Rangers as opposed to being a Russian op with them as the patsies."
(Remember, while the questers know that Atlanta was Russia by way of Rumford, as far as anyone except Russia knows, Texas Rangers fighting for the Old South did it on their own.)
No, I remember that one.
This was supposed to have been a clarification of some sort, when I was earlier speculating about how badly the nuke had gutted Atlanta, and was told that the yield I was worrying about (couple hundred kilotons) was too high by about two orders of magnitude.
I'm skeptical. Pandemics regularly sweep through and famines are frequent, and the population of 2020 was biased old.
I'd bet on it being lower than that, or on it including Mexico in which case that's a drop from nearly 500 million in the present day.
Conversely, the population remains much more educated than your turn of the century peasant.
And contraception is scarce to nonexistent.
I don't find 300 million in 2070 to be anything outre; it's 27 million people less than it's population in 2018.
Do remember that this includes lost growth; the US population in 2070 is estimated to be anywhere from 404 million (Population Pyramid) to a high of 750 million (high estimate, US Census paper 1999). 300 million would mean zero net growth in over forty years. That doesn't happen unless either mass numbers of people are leaving your country, or you are dying like flies.
*looks at the War of Bangladeshi Independence*
I am just fine with shooting people in the face in that event.
Definitely not a pacifist here.
No thank you. That type of political structure has been tried before, and found wanting.
As currently constituted, the EU has major problems with formulating and executing policy in a timely manner. It's better than nothing, but there's a reason why the EU in this timeline has been pushing for tighter integration. After losing multiple members to annexation and having more destabilized.
And as has been decisively demonstrated over the last forty years, size has a virtue all of it's own.
Imperial Russia hasn't gone away.
Conversely, the population remains much more educated than your turn of the century peasant.
And contraception is scarce to nonexistent.
I don't find 300 million in 2070 to be anything outre; it's 27 million people less than it's population in 2018.
Do remember that this includes lost growth; the US population in 2070 is estimated to be anywhere from 404 million (Population Pyramid) to a high of 750 million (high estimate, US Census paper 1999). 300 million would mean zero net growth in over forty years. That doesn't happen unless either mass numbers of people are leaving your country, or you are dying like flies.
For one example? Somalia has been in civil war since 1990.
In that time, it's population has increased from 7.3 million in 1990 to 14.7 million in 2017.
100% increase in a little under 30 years.
Also, Victoria is unsurprisingly ableist as hell and puts autism as being 'stupid.' Or at least the autism that survives, the alternative is 'willful,' and that's a weeding crime. Not sure about the who 'good with mechanics' thing as it digs a little into the 'savant' stereotype, but I justify it with he's not a super-genius. It gives a good reason for him not to be weeded.
Being 'good with machines' by Victorian standards also doesn't necessarily entail being some kind of genius with them. It can mean 'spends any real time with them on purpose and doesn't care if people laugh because they laugh at you anyway.'
I once heard a person on the spectrum say that they had gotten good at math, not because they were smarter or had natural talent for it, but because they found other people so complicated, paradoxical, and frustrating that it made multivariable calculus seem simple by comparison, which in turn motivated them to put in the time and effort to get good at it. Could be something like that.
No thank you. That type of political structure has been tried before, and found wanting.
As currently constituted, the EU has major problems with formulating and executing policy in a timely manner. It's better than nothing, but there's a reason why the EU in this timeline has been pushing for tighter integration. After losing multiple members to annexation and having more destabilized.
Yeah. I mean, here in the present day the EU had horrible problems with many of the southern states (Greece mainly) going into economic crisis and functional bankruptcy because of how the common currency is affecting them while other states (Germany for instance) benefit from the currency policy.
And right now there are issues with, like, Spain's EU representative begging for help with their coronavirus outbreak and getting shot down or outright mocked.
The EU's decentralized structure and confederation organization are arguably a very bad way to unify a large region, in some ways perhaps worse than not unifying at all, because then at least you wouldn't get cases of the richest and most powerful regions coercively setting EU-wide policies that hurt the periphery.
No, I remember that one.
This was supposed to have been a clarification of some sort, when I was earlier speculating about how badly the nuke had gutted Atlanta, and was told that the yield I was worrying about (couple hundred kilotons) was too high by about two orders of magnitude.
I mean. Without a couple of hundred kilotons, I'd expect the city to not only still be there, but still be relevant and be the nucleus of a sizeable city-state in its own right. Too big for Vick divisions to tear down as pillaging expeditions.
Conversely, the population remains much more educated than your turn of the century peasant.
And contraception is scarce to nonexistent.
I don't find 300 million in 2070 to be anything outre; it's 27 million people less than it's population in 2018.
Do remember that this includes lost growth; the US population in 2070 is estimated to be anywhere from 404 million (Population Pyramid) to a high of 750 million (high estimate, US Census paper 1999). 300 million would mean zero net growth in over forty years. That doesn't happen unless either mass numbers of people are leaving your country, or you are dying like flies.
They could have a radically different political vision that they feel is incompatible with ours, but which has widespread genuinely popular support among their population? Like, say, the Mormons of Utah might honestly want to just be Deseret and have everyone mostly leave them alone. it's far from out of the question. WIthout someone coercively threatening them at gunpoint to reintegrate into the United States, they might very well prefer not to. I think that's a problem the NCR may be having soon, if they aren't already.
[Can totally imagine and would be cheering any reservations that just expanded, in an organized fashion, their borders to the original treaty boundaries guaranteed their reservation in 18XX and then just sat there grinning]
The problem, of course, being that they'd have to kick off or subjugate all the people living on it. Not an easy thing to pull off in the first place, especially since anyone they're invading can cry to Victoria about the "Injuns" going wild. Hell, I wouldn't put it past a roaming army to take it into themselves to 'finish the job' the New Americans "pussy'd out of," and flat out commit a genocide.
While I can see why the idea of the Native Americans getting some payback might appeal to people, in practice, they'll have been suffering as badly as everyone else on the continent, if not worse.
They're planning to liberate themselves from the Russians. That doesn't mean they want to be part of a broader continental coalition. From their perspective, the US collapsed leaving them standing, and then the Vicks came to wipe them out with Russian help (or vice versa). They fell approximately ten years after the rest of the United States had largely collapsed, and after (for instance) Sara Goldblum was already an adult fighting Nazis.
Their plans may have changed and we should not assume they are passively awaiting integration until we see evidence for it.
Hmm. Personally, I think you're underestimating the power of American national mythos, and ignoring the canonical examples we have of their population clearly advocating for Revivalism through protests and resistance groups, but I suppose there's no way to know for sure until Poptart reveals the truth.
I agree that it's unlikely they're planning to be integrated. Both New York and California probably imagined they'd be the ones restoring the United States.
I mean. Without a couple of hundred kilotons, I'd expect the city to not only still be there, but still be relevant and be the nucleus of a sizeable city-state in its own right. Too big for Vick divisions to tear down as pillaging expeditions.
Well, yes.
Atlanta proper is only the 37th biggest city in the US by population.
Smaller cities like Cleveland(52) and bigger cities like Columbus(14), both in Ohio, are still around and kicking.
It's a big black city, but it's far from the only one.
Philly is the 5th largest city in the US, and it's demo skews 42% Black. Then there's Detroit(Number 23, 78% Black), Chicago (Number 3, 30% Black),Memphis(Number 26, 65% Black) et cetera.
Hmm. Personally, I think you're underestimating the power of American national mythos, and ignoring the canonical examples we have of their population clearly advocating for Revivalism through protests and resistance groups, but I suppose there's no way to know for sure until Poptart reveals the truth. I agree that it's unlikely they're planning to be integrated. Both New York and California probably imagined they'd be the ones restoring the United States.
Think Prussia's role in uniting Germany, several hundred years after the HRE fell.
Or Western Germany's urge to reunite with East Germany, 45 years after the end of WW2.
Or even South Korea and North Korea.
It's only been forty years since the Fall.
The examples above demonstrate that nationalist sentiment lasts significantly longer than that IRL.
The Mormons are so remote and hard to get to with the post-2050-or-so collapse of long range transport infrastructure that the Victorians may very well have left them largely alone.
It's not as easy for them to break up the Republic of Deseret as it would be for them to break up a revivalist polity trying to assemble in, say, Virginia or Florida or Illinois. Deseret would be prone to isolation, in a big desert region that inherently limits their agricultural potential and therefore population, and surrounded by deserts and mountains in all directions. Getting to them is a long, painful march on which trucks break down and shit like that. And when you DO get there, well, the population is religious enough that it wouldn't be much of a stretch for them to produce fighters who can approach or even match Vick fanaticism.
Tough nut to crack. I can see the Victorians needing Russian air support for this.
Arguably tougher than it's worth, since they're mainly a problem for the NCR and for vast stretches of largely irrelevant land around them that will be very sparsely populated by the 2050s due to unreliable food and water supplies.
And even then, well, the Mormons are still gonna be there. They're there now and presumably they are no longer under any Victorian pressure to stay divided, if they ever were.
I predict a Mormon-based Republic of Deseret to be quite significant for us, and especially for the NCR, at some point as the scale of our game zooms out to 'whole of North America' instead of 'specifically the Midwest.'
Nitpicking aside, it's a fair point, but I imagine confined to a relatively few exceptions we can handle on an individual basis.
The problem, of course, being that they'd have to kick off or subjugate all the people living on it. Not an easy thing to pull off in the first place, especially since anyone they're invading can cry to Victoria about the "Injuns" going wild. Hell, I wouldn't put it past a roaming army to take it into themselves to 'finish the job' the New Americans "pussy'd out of," and flat out commit a genocide.
On the other hand, I can see cases where the reservation doesn't actually do this by force, but just by being organized and 'together' in a way their immediate white neighbors are not. It wouldn't stop some instances of Victorian genocide, I'm sure, but that would not necessarily happen everywhere.
While I can see why the idea of the Native Americans getting some payback might appeal to people, in practice, they'll have been suffering as badly as everyone else on the continent, if not worse.
@PoptartProdigy has confirmed that some if not all Native American tribes have actually, in relative terms done better- they're suffering, on average less.
They're in areas that don't have the kinds of heavy infrastructure and potential to become industrialized threats that the Victorians are most aggressively on the watch for. They're already accustomed to being to some extent cut off and living on minimal wealth. And many tribes have a kind of stable organization with internal legitimacy that would be somewhat lacking for the surrounding areas. See above.
Hmm. Personally, I think you're underestimating the power of American national mythos, and ignoring the canonical examples we have of their population clearly advocating for Revivalism through protests and resistance groups, but I suppose there's no way to know for sure until Poptart reveals the truth.
I agree that it's unlikely they're planning to be integrated. Both New York and California probably imagined they'd be the ones restoring the United States.
All I know is, I'm not going to assume I know what the internal politics of the NCR are like until we have meaningful contact with their leadership, which we don't.
Well, yes.
Atlanta proper is only the 37th biggest city in the US by population.
Smaller cities like Cleveland(52) and bigger cities like Columbus(14), both in Ohio, are still around and kicking.
...Let's not be narrow-focus to the point of missing important realities. The Atlanta metropolitan area has a population of over six million people, spread out over rather more territory than that. It is, based on an article I googled, the 11th-largest in the nation.
Blowing a small chunk out of the city center would not be enough to put an end to the city as a whole. It would still be inhabited by a large population, much like Chicago; they'd just avoid the bomb crater.
Which is something we should remember going forward- Atlanta is still there, if indeed it was hit by only a single Hiroshima-sized bomb.
Huh. I would have figured the mormon church would be the main organizing force in the area of former Utah. (Deseret is what they called the area before it was called Utah)
Agreed.
Atlanta is still there. Still kicking, still exerting political influence. And almost certainly still holding a grudge against Texas.
I would in their place.
On the subject of Atlanta and nukes, Atlanta is a very spread-out city, and a detonation in the city center would leave a lot of its industry and population relatively undamaged. The interstates passing through the city would be cut off, but I-285, which encircles it would still be intact, and Hartsfield-Jackson Airport would be completely out of range of all but the most ridiculously powerful nuke. Without direct Russian or Victorian intervention, I could see Atlanta recovering to a somewhat significant degree, and dominating if not outright controlling the entire Georgia Piedmont.
On the other hand, I can see cases where the reservation doesn't actually do this by force, but just by being organized and 'together' in a way their immediate white neighbors are not. It wouldn't stop some instances of Victorian genocide, I'm sure, but that would not necessarily happen everywhere.
@PoptartProdigy has confirmed that some if not all Native American tribes have actually, in relative terms done better- they're suffering, on average less.
They're in areas that don't have the kinds of heavy infrastructure and potential to become industrialized threats that the Victorians are most aggressively on the watch for. They're already accustomed to being to some extent cut off and living on minimal wealth. And many tribes have a kind of stable organization with internal legitimacy that would be somewhat lacking for the surrounding areas. See above.
Well, I can hardly contradict Word of God, but at least in my estimation, the advantage their isolation and pre-existing power structures would only slightly edge out the malus their very existence as Native American's creates. For all the cases where a tribe manages to take control of a small island or expand their former reservation, there will be those that just succumbed to the initial chaos, got unlucky and found themselves in the crosshairs of a Victorian army, or simply picked a fight with their neighbors they couldn't handle. Overall, in geographically isolated and poor areas, the majority of modern reservations probably trudge on.
lowing a small chunk out of the city center would not be enough to put an end to the city as a whole. It would still be inhabited by a large population, much like Chicago; they'd just avoid the bomb crater.
Which is something we should remember going forward- Atlanta is still there, if indeed it was hit by only a single Hiroshima-sized bomb.
Atlanta is still there. Still kicking, still exerting political influence. And almost certainly still holding a grudge against Texas.
I would in their place.
On the subject of Atlanta and nukes, Atlanta is a very spread-out city, and a detonation in the city center would leave a lot of its industry and population relatively undamaged. The interstates passing through the city would be cut off, but I-285, which encircles it would still be intact, and Hartsfield-Jackson Airport would be completely out of range of all but the most ridiculously powerful nuke. Without direct Russian or Victorian intervention, I could see Atlanta recovering to a somewhat significant degree, and dominating if not outright controlling the entire Georgia Piedmont.
For thinking about the Atlanta bomb/what things may look like afterwards, NUKEMAP may be a good starting point for at least what kind of damage there'd be.
.
