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Doubly so since, no matter what, they HAVE to come to us.
We, the dreaded foe, have invaded sacred Victorian soil. And not just any soil, a major port for them. This isn't just some backwater village they can claim was never Victoria proper.

Both the CMC and Loyalists have to respond, both to shore up their credentials of being "the true leaders of Victoria", and because they need this port and any wealth it brings in for them.
Only when they are good and ready.
And neither side is going to be distracted from the crunch of their death-grapple to attack a six division force that is currently just sitting on a port and doing nothing.

Crazy not stupid.
You want their attention? You're going to have to be active.
 
Both the Germans and the Napoleonic French had an advantage we don't: their supplies weren't all moving in through a fixed bottleneck.

Sure they were! But given the sizes of those armies, the bottlenecks on them were much bigger than a single city.

You still have to make biodiesel from stuff that grows, and spend labor gathering and processing it.

Biodiesel has to be made from things that grow, because of the bio part of the name not the diesel part of the name. You can run a diesel engine on just about anything that will combust with oxygen.

Also, do you know how much labour it would take to gather, process and transport coal after all the supporting infrastructure had collapsed in the Illinois basin?

Honestly, I would expect the fuel situation in the Commonwealth to be an unholy hodgepodge of coal, imported petroleum products, gas, biogas, alcohol, biomass, biodiesel... Because meeting the capital costs of large scale fuel production seems a big ask given how bad the collapse was.

Africa HAS ACCESS to imported fuel supply chains that are reliable and consistent.

Not in the middle of the Congo they don't. There are still diesel generators in the middle of the Congo though, because it is still cheaper and more convenient to import the stuff across relatively poor supply lines than it is to build up a whole new infrastructure to utilize more local resources.

As an example of this, Britain was a slow adopter of oil-fired warships, precisely because they had lots of coal on their island, but effectively no oil.

The UK also had engineers and infrastructure that was already built around coal-fired steam ships.

If we had had our forces dispersed widely across the countryside

Our choices are not only between "stay in Buffalo" and "disperse our army in penny packets across upper state New York".

Given that highly aggressive armies have been defeated many times in history, by marching into places they couldn't secure or leaving themselves vulnerable to encirclement or being cut off...

Sure, but that's not my point. My point is that attacking and taking the initiative is an advantage and adopting a plan that suits your strategic aims even more of an advantage.

My point is that we should not forget our aims at the first IED and cede the initiative because (shocker) the Victorian militia system - which has been designed to fight like Kraft and his minions thought the Viet Cong fought - actually makes a credible attempt at re-creating an Iraq-style urban battle.

If we spread our forces too thin, adopt impossible goals and hang around making easy targets of ourselves, sure, that's a bad thing. But we in this quest are under no obligation to repeat the litany of mistakes that allowed US intervention in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan to be so thoroughly humiliated.

Doubly so since, no matter what, they HAVE to come to us.

We, the dreaded foe, have invaded sacred Victorian soil. And not just any soil, a major port for them. This isn't just some backwater village they can claim was never Victoria proper.

Both the CMC and Loyalists have to respond, both to shore up their credentials of being "the true leaders of Victoria", and because they need this port and any wealth it brings in for them.

Do they? Do they really? Because as far as I can see, we are much less dangerous to the CMC than Blackwell is and much less dangerous to Blackwell than the CMC is. There is precisely zero risk that we can simply take over the machinery of the Victorian state.

fasquardon
 
Like say, daily propaganda broadcasts?
Or perhaps some thunder runs into the countryside?
I pointed out that Rochester, the main Victorian port on Lake Ontario, is roughly 100km away, which is a daytrip. That Syracuse is 200km away. And Victoria has been maintaining it's internal roads. The port of Boston, the largest North Atlantic port facility in Victoria, is about 600km away, which is within roundtrip strike distance for a something like an A-1 Skyraider aircraft from Buffalo.

There is a LOT of war-relevant damage we could get up to if we put our minds to it.
 
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I still maintain we should just smash and grab the region as much as we can.

Take anything that is't nailed down, stockpile it in Buffalo start it back to the commonwealth and anything we can't take with us gets dumped in the lake or set on fire in an empty lot.
 
If we commit to holding Buffalo, that's a LOT of AP we going to spend to hold it. AP we can't use to solve our domestic and foreign issues and get stronger for when Russia looks at us in a rocks fall scenario.

Our initial strategy was to use peace talks to GAIN APs. Not spend it.

Occupying Buffalo for longer than our initial plan just because we can means we changing the strategy. So... What would that be then ? Destroying Blackwell hold on Victoria?
 
If we commit to holding Buffalo, that's a LOT of AP we going to spend to hold it. AP we can't use to solve our domestic and foreign issues and get stronger for when Russia looks at us in a rocks fall scenario.

Our initial strategy was to use peace talks to GAIN APs. Not spend it.

Occupying Buffalo for longer than our initial plan just because we can means we changing the strategy. So... What would that be then ? Destroying Blackwell hold on Victoria?
There is no strategy since we threw the coinflip and it came up tails. I think people just thought we could just bring Blackwell to the table easily with just a attack on the canal.

I expect at least a turn or two of spending actions just to tread water much less get on top of our various fires smoldering in the background nor building up for the true confrontation against Victoria.

We have at least one action locked in for food, our military action is locked for the next turn. We also need to finish our world tour. And various other actions that we must put actions into.

Our food action is going to have to double up because we both can't be certain of success and we also have the burden of feeding the Buffalo city people.
 
I'll take your word for it.


No cellphones. No wireless door openers. None of the thousand and one commercial radio transmitters used by insurgents for remote detonators.
Limited supplies of military grade explosive, and no ammonium nitrate fertilizer for ANFO, not in a city. And the CMC stripped the city of any cars and trucks that survived the disastrous supply expedition which they'd use for car bombs, as well as any other supplies of military utility..

I'm sure they will try IEDs.
I suspect that it will be much harder than they presumed.
[
It's not going to be as good as Iraq, which supposedly had assistance from experienced bomb makers but bombs don't need to be super powerful to take out our technicals and cars.

Mortar shells buried in the ground for example.
Buffalo has farms so lots of fertiliser.
Using shotgun shells as improvised explosives with trip wires as triggers.


The key crux is that the militia themselves aren't trained to do this, although to be fair, with experience against local insurgents, the Resistance and a hunting culture, it's not that huge a leap compared to city boys like me. You just need the Inquisitors and other guys who routinely burn out, not to mention any veterans who placed booby traps in cities which has now been canonised to teach or actually build said devices and distribute them.
 
Burns swallows. Then he lifts the radio in his hand up to his face.

"This is Hellfire. Two-five-niner-seven-Alfa-Tango-eight-Sierra-one..."

He rattles off numbers and letters for over a minute. The radio picks up his words, carries it up to the mast behind him, and carries his words to the world beyond. To most, it is a strange message from a terrifying man, doubtless signalling a change in his many plans. To Victoria, it is threatening -- a broadcast of unknown purpose from one of their greatest enemies.

To Burns...it comes to nothing.

He waits on that rooftop for hours, until the sun is peeking over the horizon, and then sighs, his shoulders slumping.

Just curious, can we know what this is about? Because I was stumped when this first came out, and I'm still stumped. If its a secret though, I'll understand.
 
It would be entirely unsurprising for Victoria to have a stockpile of such things. This would not be an illogical place for Blackwell to release some of them. Remember that the presence of these militia acting in this role at all indicates some degree of planning on Blackwell's part. Victoria, even in a civil war, is a nation-state and may well have resources far superior to what an insurgent group can achieve without nation-state support.
They did just get done stripping themselves of military supplies for the Leamington force.
So doubtful.
It's not going to be as good as Iraq, which supposedly had assistance from experienced bomb makers but bombs don't need to be super powerful to take out our technicals and cars.

Mortar shells buried in the ground for example.
Buffalo has farms so lots of fertiliser.
Using shotgun shells as improvised explosives with trip wires as triggers.

The key crux is that the militia themselves aren't trained to do this, although to be fair, with experience against local insurgents, the Resistance and a hunting culture, it's not that huge a leap compared to city boys like me. You just need the Inquisitors and other guys who routinely burn out, not to mention any veterans who placed booby traps in cities which has now been canonised to teach or actually build said devices and distribute them.
The CMC stripped Buffalo of military or dual-use materiel. And this was after Buffalo beggared itself and it's environs, cleaning out their reserves to attempt to resupply the Vic army. Buffalo is not a farming community so no fertilizer stockpiles in the city either, and the diesel is all gone thanks to the CMC. Farms in the local region are going to have expended their fertilizer in the planting season before the rebellion started.

I mean, it's possible to attempt it.
There just isn't the depth of resources, or the time to establish stockpiles, necessary to pull it off on a major scale. Like making bricks without straw.
And with none of those remote devices handy, every attempt will be burning up personnel and resources.

Just curious, can we know what this is about? Because I was stumped when this first came out, and I'm still stumped. If its a secret though, I'll understand.
We still don't know.
 
Sure they were! But given the sizes of those armies, the bottlenecks on them were much bigger than a single city.
Your breezy overconfidence does not reassure me.

Biodiesel has to be made from things that grow, because of the bio part of the name not the diesel part of the name. You can run a diesel engine on just about anything that will combust with oxygen.
Okay. So which fuel, specifically, can you run the locomotives on consistently, while making sure said locomotives are easily maintained and work all the time and that the fuel is available even when food isn't?

Remember, again, that you are smacking head-on into the cold, hard fact that the post-Collapse economy of Chicago and its surroundings has been relying heavily on coal fuel, including for mobile applications like ship engines. They are not using diesel engines for the same purpose. It seems logical to suppose that this happened for a reason.

Also, do you know how much labour it would take to gather, process and transport coal after all the supporting infrastructure had collapsed in the Illinois basin?
It doesn't matter; the Victorians would allow that labor to be undertaken, because they need coal mines running too. They don't need oil from that region; they're clearly getting that from elsewhere.

You're missing one of the critical features of colonialism. The economy is shaped not only by what is optimally efficient and profitable, but by what the colonial overlords will allow. And colonial overlords often tolerate a lot of economic inefficiency, in the name of extracting a few key commodities from their victims while preventing any future uprisings.

Not in the middle of the Congo they don't. There are still diesel generators in the middle of the Congo though, because it is still cheaper and more convenient to import the stuff across relatively poor supply lines than it is to build up a whole new infrastructure to utilize more local resources.
There is no force equivalent to the Victorians in the middle of the Congo that actively prevents diesel fuel from being imported- and if there is,

Sure, but that's not my point. My point is that attacking and taking the initiative is an advantage and adopting a plan that suits your strategic aims even more of an advantage.

My point is that we should not forget our aims at the first IED and cede the initiative because (shocker) the Victorian militia system - which has been designed to fight like Kraft and his minions thought the Viet Cong fought - actually makes a credible attempt at re-creating an Iraq-style urban battle.

If we spread our forces too thin, adopt impossible goals and hang around making easy targets of ourselves, sure, that's a bad thing. But we in this quest are under no obligation to repeat the litany of mistakes that allowed US intervention in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan to be so thoroughly humiliated.
Keeping our forces concentrated is going to present challenges if we are launching offensives. I, for one, am very glad our forces were concentrated when this little surprise blew up in our faces. Since other Victorian cities will probably have just as many militia lying around as Buffalo did, we need to prepare for exactly this kind of resistance- not exceptionally well organized or trained, but enough to make it very difficult for us to advance at will across a hundred miles (or more) of hostile countryside overland. Air strikes are probably within our capacity, but we have limitations on how much of that we can accomplish with the aircraft available (a few dozen turboprop and prop planes, and 21 jets that can average one eight-plane sortie per day)

fasquardon
[/QUOTE]

I still maintain we should just smash and grab the region as much as we can.

Take anything that is't nailed down, stockpile it in Buffalo start it back to the commonwealth and anything we can't take with us gets dumped in the lake or set on fire in an empty lot.
There is virtually nothing of value left for us to loot, in the process of doing this looting and pillaging we will hand the Victorians a lot of propaganda material, and the next time we come back to fight in this area (we will), the populace will remember what we did to them and fight us tooth and nail.

If all we're hoping to accomplish is trashing Buffalo further, we shouldn't have taken Buffalo in the first place; it's pretty heavily trashed.

And if all we can hope to accomplish is trashing Buffalo, then we might as well not bother and go home; any added benefit we gain from trashing Buffalo isn't worth the effort of doing so.

I pointed out that Rochester, the main Victorian port on Lake Ontario, is roughly 100km away, which is a daytrip. That Syracuse is 200km away. And Victoria has been maintaining it's internal roads.
The problem is that you're going to have to drive past a LOT of hills and small towns and forests and ambush sites on the road from "here" to "there" in any of those cases. 100 kilometers across enemy terrain that we now know the enemy WILL fight for? That's actually a big struggle to deal with. Remember how hard it was for the Victorians to travel an even shorter distance from Detroit to the Raisin River.

Unless we start committing Lind-level "lol we can just go where we want and attack as we please" foolishness, we can't count on hitting Rochester overland without a very substantial, expansive commitment.

If we commit to holding Buffalo, that's a LOT of AP we going to spend to hold it. AP we can't use to solve our domestic and foreign issues and get stronger for when Russia looks at us in a rocks fall scenario.

Our initial strategy was to use peace talks to GAIN APs. Not spend it.

Occupying Buffalo for longer than our initial plan just because we can means we changing the strategy. So... What would that be then ? Destroying Blackwell hold on Victoria?
The hope is that we can increase the amount of pain Blackwell feels because of our continued activity, to a level that causes him to agree to a better peace treaty.

In hindsight we should not have accepted the coin flip. But I wouldn't assume we're doomed here. Mobilizing our military costs 1 AP/turn; the entire Detroit campaign effectively cost us the 2 AP we spent on "Mobilize the troops" and that was it. We spent more AP in the runup to the campaign securing basing rights and so on, but that wasn't directly related and won't be as big of an issue here.

Hopefully, holding Buffalo and inflicting more-than-pinprick damage on Loyalist positions via air and gunboat raids will convince Blackwell to go back to the peace table. If it doesn't, maybe we'd just better withdraw and give up the benefits of having that peace treaty, or accept a much less beneficial one. But fighting a military campaign doesn't stop us from doing other useful things in the same turn, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

They did just get done stripping themselves of military supplies for the Leamington force.
So doubtful.
You misunderstand. I'm not saying "the detonators were already in Buffalo several months ago, when the Leamington force resupply effort rolled out." Or even "the detonators were left in the city weeks ago, when the Crusaders rolled out."

I'm saying, it's been weeks since the peace negotiations broke down, and the Crusaders had already left Buffalo before that, permitting Blackwell's men to re-enter the city. Blackwell knew we'd be fairly likely to launch an attack in this general area. It would have been logical to take some of his existing stockpile of bomb detonating equipment, load it on a truck, and send it to Buffalo in the anticipation of our arrival.
 
Okay. So which fuel, specifically, can you run the locomotives on consistently, while making sure said locomotives are easily maintained and work all the time and that the fuel is available even when food isn't?
Wood alcohol is a decent contender. Trees are not particularly good for eating, yet are readily available. It's not great for engines and it doesn't scale well enough to supply a navy, but it's cheaper and easier to set up or modify a still and deal with the extra locomotive maintenance than to do a complete rebuild to steam engines - especially in the short term or if you're scaling back rail usage because you can't afford to maintain the tracks everywhere. You're also more likely to have people who know how to build the right kind of still than steam engine knowledge.
 
I'm of mixed feelings here.

We don't really know what Blackwell are thinking so we cannot reliably guess where his breaking point is.

At the same time, we have physical evidence his faction is down with blowing the locks over letting us have them.
So it would follow that as soon as we leave, he'll send people to blow them. Especially considering we've demonstrated the ability to take them whenever we want.

Basically, if we ever want to use those locks in the future, we cannot let them out of our hands (baring a treaty).

So, Blackwell has successfully managed to tie us down in one place.

That said it is not all bad. Our anticipated AP cost is more annoying than crippling. Buffalo has been so depopulated and our troop numbers are so high, the functional pacification of the city is likely inevitable, however painful. And between the locks, railroads, and airports, Buffalo/Niagra is a perfect location from which to continue raiding Victoria from land, sea, or air.

We may not be able to afford to let Niagra (and thus Buffalo) go just yet, but Blackwell cannot afford to let us stay there either.

And when it comes to baiting reactions, we don't just have military options.
Let's not forget the Declaration.

Granted, the Crusaders are just as likely to attack us, but and end to the Civil War in either direction will bring the winner to us anyway.

We still have an endgoal here. Our schedule has just been shacken up and we need to figure out where we are now.
 
Good point made to my overly vague and grandiose explanation point.

I'm not saying we sack the region and assault the civilian population. I'm saying take as much heavy equipment as we can. Earthmovers, Combines, mining equipment, machine tools any building materials like wood or concrete. Their's a lot of raw materials, finished goods and equipment that must exist in this area even now that we can use back home and that denying to Victoria's nearest opposing frontiers can only benefit us.

I'm not advocating looting the local grain stores or ravaging the populous. But I certainly do believe industrial looting and/or sabotage is a worthy endeavor considering the momentum we've got and the shocking amount of breathing room we're enjoying.
 
I'm of mixed feelings here.

We don't really know what Blackwell are thinking so we cannot reliably guess where his breaking point is.

At the same time, we have physical evidence his faction is down with blowing the locks over letting us have them.
So it would follow that as soon as we leave, he'll send people to blow them. Especially considering we've demonstrated the ability to take them whenever we want.

Basically, if we ever want to use those locks in the future, we cannot let them out of our hands (baring a treaty).

So, Blackwell has successfully managed to tie us down in one place.

That said it is not all bad. Our anticipated AP cost is more annoying than crippling. Buffalo has been so depopulated and our troop numbers are so high, the functional pacification of the city is likely inevitable, however painful. And between the locks, railroads, and airports, Buffalo/Niagra is a perfect location from which to continue raiding Victoria from land, sea, or air.

We may not be able to afford to let Niagra (and thus Buffalo) go just yet, but Blackwell cannot afford to let us stay there either.

And when it comes to baiting reactions, we don't just have military options.
Let's not forget the Declaration.

Granted, the Crusaders are just as likely to attack us, but and end to the Civil War in either direction will bring the winner to us anyway.

We still have an endgoal here. Our schedule has just been shacken up and we need to figure out where we are now.
Oh! There's also FCNY. They've already recognized the Commonwealth as the USA's successor.
Use our diplomacy AP to get them to open a third front. They could possibly do it in Winter (or at least early Spring) when the weather will grind us to a halt.

Blackwell's people think our treaty would destroy Victoria's way of life? Well, what does he think of losing Victorian land on top of the lives he's already hemorrhaging?
 
I mean winter's here. Dig into Buffalo, keep the locals happy, pull out any shiny loot you can. Winters in upstate New York may not be on Leningrad level but they're pretty gnarly. Neither side in the Vic Civil War is going to be able to easily launch and support an overland ground attack on Buffalo with the infrastructure there having gone to shit. MAYBE they could push along the interstate that runs alongside the lake between Rochester and Buffalo but if so that's a beyond predictable axis of attack and something you can bleed them white doing. I'm not suggesting any of this is easy, just as someone who lives in New York and has been in that general area plenty of times, I can't see anything big brewing up before spring.
 
I mean winter's here. Dig into Buffalo, keep the locals happy, pull out any shiny loot you can. Winters in upstate New York may not be on Leningrad level but they're pretty gnarly. Neither side in the Vic Civil War is going to be able to easily launch and support an overland ground attack on Buffalo with the infrastructure there having gone to shit. MAYBE they could push along the interstate that runs alongside the lake between Rochester and Buffalo but if so that's a beyond predictable axis of attack and something you can bleed them white doing. I'm not suggesting any of this is easy, just as someone who lives in New York and has been in that general area plenty of times, I can't see anything big brewing up before spring.
I mean... if they're willing to literally pave a road to drive over with bodies...
 
Wood alcohol is a decent contender. Trees are not particularly good for eating, yet are readily available. It's not great for engines and it doesn't scale well enough to supply a navy, but it's cheaper and easier to set up or modify a still and deal with the extra locomotive maintenance...
Well, it's been at least 30-35 years since the Collapse got bad enough to block off fuel oil imports in the Midwest. After that much time, wouldn't it seem likely that all the original pre-Collapse engines reconfigured to run on wood alcohol would have burned out from the extra maintenance requirements?

It's like, we don't have much of a rail network, and I strongly suspect one of the main reasons is that the old pre-Collapse engines were either looted by Victoria, sabotaged in place by Victoria, or used until they just plain broke down irreparably or crashed or something.

To the point where it's very plausible IMO that of the relative handful of railroad engines still in service, many are new-build and greatly inferior to pre-Collapse models. Which coal-fired steam engines would be.

That's especially true because even in real life, most railroad engines are old; new production has not been going on at a high pace in the United States for a long time. They're already old now and I highly doubt many of them would still be around in 2065 or 2070 under the conditions of the Collapse.

...

Now, you might see the new locomotives also built to run on diesel engines powered by wood alcohol, I suppose. But by the time said locomotives were built, the new 'Victorian Order' of the Midwest was already in place- which included the Victorians tolerating extractive mining industries for things like coal and metal ores. Furthermore, it did NOT include high-quality metallurgy. Which is... as I understand it a problem with diesel engines. They're sturdy, but they require fairly high tolerances, whereas a steam engine can be built to much lower tolerances as long as you don't expect too much of it.

You're also more likely to have people who know how to build the right kind of still than steam engine knowledge.
The problem is that you need both the knowledge of the stills and the knowledge of how to rebuild diesel engines to run on wood alcohol. The latter is going to be a bit of an obstacle in its own right, if not necessarily harder than building steam engines.
 
Oh! There's also FCNY. They've already recognized the Commonwealth as the USA's successor.
Use our diplomacy AP to get them to open a third front. They could possibly do it in Winter (or at least early Spring) when the weather will grind us to a halt.

Blackwell's people think our treaty would destroy Victoria's way of life? Well, what does he think of losing Victorian land on top of the lives he's already hemorrhaging?
FCNY recognized us as *a* legitimate successor state/American nation. Not THE successor.

Also, we need that diplo AP to finish our international outreach. If we don't finish that this turn our work will go down the drain as the Commonwealth slips off of the news cycle front page.

You are underestimating how badly we are strapped for action points with the multiple fires that are currently burning.
 
I think, frankly, we need to wait for the update before planning our next move. Right now, all we know is that our troops had a hard-fought, close-run battle in or near Buffalo, involving attackers that blended into the civilian population.

I'm not saying we sack the region and assault the civilian population. I'm saying take as much heavy equipment as we can. Earthmovers, Combines, mining equipment, machine tools any building materials like wood or concrete. Their's a lot of raw materials, finished goods and equipment that must exist in this area even now that we can use back home and that denying to Victoria's nearest opposing frontiers can only benefit us.

I'm not advocating looting the local grain stores or ravaging the populous. But I certainly do believe industrial looting and/or sabotage is a worthy endeavor considering the momentum we've got and the shocking amount of breathing room we're enjoying.
There's not a lot of industry left to loot after it's been stripped of military supplies and manpower multiple times. I'm not saying there's literally nothing, but I doubt there's a lot, and much of it is probably sourced based on the idea of regular access to Victorian supply chains.

FCNY recognized us as *a* legitimate successor state/American nation. Not THE successor.

Also, we need that diplo AP to finish our international outreach. If we don't finish that this turn our work will go down the drain as the Commonwealth slips off of the news cycle front page.

You are underestimating how badly we are strapped for action points with the multiple fires that are currently burning.
I'm gonna run an analysis in a minute, I think.
 
I think, frankly, we need to wait for the update before planning our next move. Right now, all we know is that our troops had a hard-fought, close-run battle in or near Buffalo, involving attackers that blended into the civilian population.

There's not a lot of industry left to loot after it's been stripped of military supplies and manpower multiple times. I'm not saying there's literally nothing, but I doubt there's a lot, and much of it is probably sourced based on the idea of regular access to Victorian supply chains.

I'm gonna run an analysis in a minute, I think.
From what I recall the crisis and Really Important Shit (TM) that need done are:

Refugee Crisis (Diplo)
Food Shortage/Potential starvation (Stewardship)
International Diplomatic Outreach (Diplo)
Military extremely overstretched and needing overhaul [extremely is understating things severely for the navy and air force) (Military)
Economy desperately needs a overhaul if we want to really build up, and we really need the census done (Stewardship)
 
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From what I recall the crisis and Really Important Shit (TM) that need done are:

Refugee Crisis (Diplo)
Food Shortage/Potential starvation (Stewardship)
International Diplomatic Outreach (Diplo)
Military extremely overstretched and needing overhaul [extremely is understating things severely for the navy and air force) (Military)
Economy desperately needs a overhaul if we want to really build up, and we really need the census done (Stewardship)
OK, but some of those crises are bigger deals than others.

OK, here is the Turn 4 action vote, and here are the results.

Our AP breakdown, barring anything unexpected, looks like:

-Five free AP
-One free AP in each category EXCEPT the War Defense Department. The free AP for the War Defense Department is being spent on the ongoing military mobilization that will no doubt continue into the winter and maybe longer.

Tentatively, our action plan might look like:

[k] Mobilize Troops (already mandatory/committed)
[k] Outreach
[k] Refugee Crisis x2 (pretty important action, failure might lead to riots and shit)
[k] Farming Equipment, Part 2 x2 (no famine if we fail this turn, but famine if we fail this AND next turn)
[k] Organize the Libraries (almost finished, but unlikely to get more than 1 AP in the present environment, but this is done with a free AP that cannot be reallocated)

[k] Unknown free action, probably directly or indirectly in support of the military or food aid to Buffalo or something
[k] Unknown free action, probably State (possibly double down on Outreach?
[k] Unknown free action, probably Development (probably Oil Extraction, which is identified as the biggest bottleneck?)
[k] Unknown SECURITY action (Vox Populi, or some action unlocked by reintegrating Audrey's network)

...
...

EDITING:

Looking at your Big Deal list, firstly I should point out that, contrary to the custom in CKII quests, this quest now tracks internal political affairs and external diplomacy as separate action categories; we have a free action in each.

Now, the plan I outline does a good job of addressing the refugee crisis (high likelihood of resolution, and burning 2 AP on it at least ensures that any angry refugees won't be angry with Sara Johnson's administration, much as burning 1 AP last turn did).

It does a good job of addressing the food crisis (we're spending 2 AP on an action that only needs one more success, and even if we totally fail we still have one more turn to try before famine sets in).

It budgets to finish the Outreach action, and we can reasonably double down on that if we like.

It only budgets one action specifically for internal development, but if we're willing to accept that we maaay have to continue our Outreach efforts into Turn 6, we can afford to not double down on it (low DC anyway, likely to succeed with one action) and spend a second.

After that, we still have one free action left over for things related to the military, such as completing the 'upgrade our training' action, which is probably the most pressing matter except for 'build more gunboats' or Expand the Navy, and we weren't even given a chance to do that last turn for some reason.

This isn't great, but I think it covers the bases acceptably.
 
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OK, but some of those crises are bigger deals than others.

OK, here is the Turn 4 action vote, and here are the results.

Our AP breakdown, barring anything unexpected, looks like:

-Five free AP
-One free AP in each category EXCEPT the War Defense Department. The free AP for the War Defense Department is being spent on the ongoing military mobilization that will no doubt continue into the winter and maybe longer.

Tentatively, our action plan might look like:

[k] Mobilize Troops (already mandatory/committed)
[k] Outreach
[k] Refugee Crisis x2 (pretty important action, failure might lead to riots and shit)
[k] Farming Equipment, Part 2 x2 (no famine if we fail this turn, but famine if we fail this AND next turn)
[k] Organize the Libraries (almost finished, but unlikely to get more than 1 AP in the present environment, but this is done with a free AP that cannot be reallocated)

[k] Unknown free action, probably directly or indirectly in support of the military or food aid to Buffalo or something
[k] Unknown free action, probably State (possibly double down on Outreach?
[k] Unknown free action, probably Development (probably Oil Extraction, which is identified as the biggest bottleneck?)
[k] Unknown SECURITY action (Vox Populi, or some action unlocked by reintegrating Audrey's network)

EDITING:

Refugee Crisis (Diplo)
Food Shortage/Potential starvation (Stewardship)
International Diplomatic Outreach (Diplo)
Military extremely overstretched and needing overhaul [extremely is understating things severely for the navy and air force) (Military)
Economy desperately needs a overhaul if we want to really build up, and we really need the census done (Stewardship)

Honestly, until we know the situation treaty wise, this is a bit up in the air. We almost certainly have more than 5 ap, Detroit was an economic powerhouse. OTOH, we are probably going to need to invest at least one AP into Toledo to prevent collapse there.
 
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